King Pete Prediction

[TransMonk]

By my count, Pete Alonso needs 27 home runs to pass Darryl Strawberry as the Mets all-time HR leader.

Predict the date he becomes the Mets HR King.

For reference, these are other dates he hit HR #27 during a single season in his career:

2019: June 23

2021: August 1

2022: August 1

2023: July 25

2024: August 17

[Benjamin Grimm]

September 4.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Aug 13 vs. Atlanta. Tuesday Night Mets Special

[metirish]

April 10th 2026

[willpie]

August 1

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

April 10th 2026

 

For the Kansas City Royals

[TransMonk]

August 9 in Milwaukee. They love Alonso HRs there.

[batmagadanleadoff]

April 10th 2026

 

For the Kansas City Royals

But that HR wouldn't count on Pete's Mets ledger.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

April 10th 2026

 

For the Kansas City Royals

But that HR wouldn't count on Pete's Mets ledger.

 

Really? I hadn't realized that

[MFS62]

August 6

Depending on your point of view, that would be either the first or second most famous bomb on that date.

Later

Edited February 7, 2025 by MFS62

[Centerfield]

The funny thing is, the structure of the contract almost assures Pete the record.

If he hits less than 27 this year, he'll have had a **** year. Which means he likely opts in for 2026.

The only thing that can derail him is if he's lights out for half the year proving he's not in decline, but has an injury that keeps him from getting to the record.

[kcmets]

May 18th at Yankee Stadium, a cheap flare into the second

row of the porch on national television.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Aug. 5. He's going to do better batting near Soto, and the build up will be pretty fun! Pete thrives in big spots.

[Gwreck]

July 4, at Citi Field vs the Yankees. Goes back-to-back following a Soto bomb.

Preferably off Gerritt Cole but I’m not picky.

USA

[smg58]

I'll go with August 19, because it's my birthday.

[metsmarathon]

july 27

[Frayed Knot]

I remember how sure we all were that David was going to break Straw's record.

[Gwreck]

I remember how sure we all were that David was going to break Straw's record.

 

Despite an assassination attempt, shoulder injury, neck injury, and spinal stenosis, he got within 10 of the record.

From a pure actuarial/probabilistic perspective, seems pretty likely that Pete won’t suffer all of those maladies over the next two years

[Frayed Knot]

Just sayin'. We were sure it was going to happen for Wright ... and then it didn't happen.

Right now Pete is a slightly down year or a several week stay on the IL from not reaching Straw this year.

And we won't know if there's even going to be a second season until after this one.

[Gwreck]

Right now Pete is a slightly down year or a several week stay on the IL from not reaching Straw this year.

And we won't know if there's even going to be a second season until after this one.

 

What’s missing from that calculation is that injuries/a slightly down year means that the second year of the contract becomes much more likely.

Put another way: the Mets wouldn’t have agreed to the contract if they didn’t think it highly likely Pete would hit at least that many homers.

[Frayed Knot]

"Likely"? Sure.

But we all thought the other guy was likely too.

btw, if Pete plays more or less everyday* and HRs at the same rate as last season, he'll reach Straw on or about Game 129.

I didn't dig through the schedule to find out exactly when that is.

* as he has for almost his entire career to date. He's appeared in 846 out of a possible 870 games played from 2019-24 (over 97%)

Not saying that his luck is 'due to run out' or anything but he has been remarkably fortunate so far, especially with 85 HBPs

[Fman99]

I think he hits 45 HRs in 2025, which is a pace of about 9 per month. As streaky as Pete is I think that's reasonable. So that'd put him right around the beginning of July.

I'll go with July 12 which is Fgirl's birthday.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm a little surprised at how much attention Pete's chase of Strawberry's Mets home run record has been getting. I didn't think that many people paid attention to this kind of stuff.

I know I do. I remember noting when being in the Mets Top Ten finally required 100 home runs. (George Foster stopping at 99 delayed that much anticipated day.)

We still don't have ten players with 1,000 hits. Darryl Strawberry is in ninth place with 1,025. Howard Johnson (997) and Jerry Grote (994) came tantalizingly close. Daniel Murphy (967) would have made it if he hadn't left the Mets after 2015. (Or if he hadn't missed the 2010 season.) The next guy to 1,000 will probably be Brandon Nimmo. He's 180 shy, and it's more likely that he'll get there in 2026 than in 2025. His career high is 162, in 2023. I'd certainly welcome a 180-hit season from Nimmo.

[MFS62]

I'm a little surprised at how much attention Pete's chase of Strawberry's Mets home run record has been getting. I didn't think that many people paid attention to this kind of stuff.

We still don't have ten players with 1,000 hits.

 

I doubt there will be as much excitement when someone approaches 1,000 hits. Home runs are sexier.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Oops, I overlooked Jeff McNeil, 822 hits. He also has a (somewhat outside) shot at getting to 1,000 this season.

[kcmets]

Pete's going to hit 76 HR this year, hence my May prediction.

Just in case anyone was wondering...

[Lefty Specialist]

August 4th

[Frayed Knot]

Aug 13 vs. Atlanta. Tuesday Night Mets Special

 

Bucket was both right and wrong, but either way he wins the contest.

It was indeed on the Tuesday night game vs Atlanta but he incorrectly labeled that day as the 13th rather than the 12th.

[MFS62]

Looks like Trans monk wins the prize. He was 3 days away.

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

http://ultimatemets.com/cards/HomeRunKings.jpg