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Fman99

By Fman99
in New York Mets Talk

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Edgy MD FCL Mets

Edgy MD

Site Manager
Posted
Posted


And if HAIR FORCE ONE is the winner, we won't have a guy who is no longer a Met gracing the cover when it's installed at The Louvre.


Gwreck Draft Eligible

Gwreck

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


A Winker/Marte DH platoon makes a lot of sense. And they could put either in left with Nimmo on center on occasion as well.


smg58 College Ball

smg58

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


Not surprised given his October, and not disappointed for the same reason.


Centerfield First Round Pick

Centerfield

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


I like the move for the price. I think he has some good upside.



Important to note though, that this move comes with a significant amount of risk.



He was great for us in October, but was pretty crappy for the Mets in the regular season (.683 OPS). His good first half of 2024 with Washington is the only time he's been good since 2021. He was terrible in 2023 for the Brewers (.567 OPS), and terrible in 2022 for Seattle (.688 OPS).



Also battled a bad back last fall.


Cowtipper Draft Eligible

Cowtipper

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


Excellent. He was part of the spark that turned 2024 around. Great to have him back. Guys like Winker and Taylor are proof that statlines don't tell the whole story. He was worth a lot more than the .243/.318/.365 line he posted suggests.


Frayed Knot FCL Mets

Frayed Knot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


The Mets actually saw the second worst* mini-stretch of Winker's career in 2024 which, particularly at only age 31, indicates that maybe it was more the exception than the rule.

His career OPS/OPS+ is 804/118 as opposed to the 683/95 he put up over 129 PAs in Queens. In particular his usual high walk rate [105 career) was down at 75. Still good, but well under his norm which can probably be attributed to assuming more of a PH role. Maybe more ABs translates into more of a usual season for him even if he doesn't get everyday playing time.







* he had an injury filled disaster of a partial season (197 PA) in 2023 w/the Brewers


Frayed Knot FCL Mets

Frayed Knot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


Simply the gap between a player's BA & OBA. The difference, unless significantly affected by HBPs which is barely relevant for most hitters, measures how often a hitter draws a walk. 65 to 70 points has been the traditional average and it's not a rate that varies much over time. It was 69 in 2024 for MLB as a whole.



From his ML debut through his CIN & SEA seasons (2017 - 2022) when Winker was more or less a full time player, his BA/OBA gap was 104, significantly above league averages and even his 'down' rate as a Met (75) was still higher than league norms. For comparison, Keith Hernandez was 88 over the length of his career.

You can usually find ultra high rates in power hitters where both careful pitching and high numbers of IWs start to play a major role such as Giambi (122) or Thome (126), or freaks like Bonds (146) and Williams (138)


batmagadanleadoff College Ball

batmagadanleadoff

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


That's an unusual way to express a batter's walk rate. When I saw your numbers,, I had no idea what they meant or how you got them. Walk rate is a standardized stat, calculated as BB/PA. A walk rate of 15% is considered excellent.



I guess your way works for you. You've probably been doing it that way for a long time and are used to it.. But most other people won't know what your numbers mean or what the context is for those numbers.


Frayed Knot FCL Mets

Frayed Knot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


It's quick, easy, and, except in cases of high IWs and HBPs, achieves the same goal of putting a measurement on a batter's plate discipline.



That's why the first thing I look at for a player's is his slash line BA/OBA/SLG, because not only do each of those numbers tell you something about

the hitter but so does the relationship between each of them. Walk 'Rate' is probably the wrong term for it but you find out about a hitter's walking

ability just by looking at BA v OBA. Then Isolated Power (IsoP) is the gap between BA & SLG which effectively becomes a player's Slugging Average

if you factor all his singles out of the equation. Any single, after all, including infield singles and bunt singles, increases one's 'Slugging' percentage

which is certainly misleading at best.



From 2004 to 2008, for instance, Mike Cameron (802) and Ichiro Suzuki (803) had near identical OPS, but of course were completely different hitters.

Ichiro hit .332, 82 points higher than Cameron, but walked infrequently (46) and hit for little power (IsoP = 93 where 150 is around league norm)

Cameron hit just .250 but walked at just about double the rate (85) and his slugging was 217 points above his BA.



So a quick look at the slash lines of the two tells you a lot about what kind of hitter each is even if you never saw or heard of either of them.

And there's no math involved beyond simple subtraction.


batmagadanleadoff College Ball

batmagadanleadoff

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


I do the same as soon as I see the slash line -- comparing BA to OBP. I've been doing that since I was a teenager though, granted, when I was a teenager you didn't get OBP's as readily and as pretty much automatically as you do today.



I think that the standard way of measuring walk rate - BB/PA is the easiest way to do it because a 10% walk rate is pretty good and a 15% walk rate is excellent. It's child's play to calculate 10% of any number. And 15% is just about as easy -- 10% plus half of that 10%.


batmagadanleadoff College Ball

batmagadanleadoff

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted (edited)


Frayed Knot wrote:

Simply the gap between a player's BA & OBA. The difference, unless significantly affected by HBPs which is barely relevant for most hitters, measures how often a hitter draws a walk. 65 to 70 points has been the traditional average and it's not a rate that varies much over time. It was 69 in 2024 for MLB as a whole.



From his ML debut through his CIN & SEA seasons (2017 - 2022) when Winker was more or less a full time player, his BA/OBA gap was 104, significantly above league averages and even his 'down' rate as a Met (75) was still higher than league norms. For comparison, Keith Hernandez was 88 over the length of his career.

You can usually find ultra high rates in power hitters where both careful pitching and high numbers of IWs start to play a major role such as Giambi (122) or Thome (126), or freaks like Bonds (146) and Williams (138)




So this conversation we've been having over calculating a batter's walk rate has been nagging at me all afternoon, ever since we had it. I knew something was wrong and am now angry with myself for not seeing it immediately. Your method doesn't work -- for several reasons. First of all, there's the problem with HBP's, which you recognize and acknowledge. Your method also inflates the walk rate of batters who have many sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies. A sac lowers a players OBP, but doesn't affect a player's BA because a a sac is neither a hit not an AB. Your method thus inflates a batter's walk rate because a SAC lowers a batter's OBP without affecting his BA.



But even if you wanted to concede these flaws on grounds that sacs and HBPs don't happen often enough to have a major influence on your numbers - your math doesn't work.



You can't accurately subtract averages from each other unless the denominators in those averages are equal. The denominators for the same player's PAs and ABs are different because not all PAs are ABs.



I'll illustrate:



A batter goes two for two in his first two at-bats. His BA is 1.000. His OBP is also 1.000. You would subtract his BA (1.000) from his OBP (1.000) to get his walk rate, which in this case is 0. That result is correct. The batter hasn't drawn a walk. Yet. But watch what happens when that batter draws a walk in his third plate appearance.



His BA stays at 1.000 because he got two hits in two at-bats. The walk is neither a hit nor an at-bat, and so has no effect on his BA. His OBP also stays at 1.000 because the walk is a plate appearance and the batter reached base in all three of his plate appearances without making an out. Your method would now produce a walk rate of 0 -- a 1.000 OBP minus a 1.000 BA. And that's wrong. The batter's walk rate is .333, based on one walk in three plate appearances. This doesn't work out.



Now suppose that the batter, in his fourth plate appearance, finally makes an out. His BA drops from 1.000 to .667 (two for three). His OBP drops from 1.000 to .750 (2 hits and a walk in four plate appearances). Your method yields a walk rate of .083 -- (.750 -.667) But the batter's true walk rate is .250 based on one walk in four plate appearances. That's obviously wrong. The size of these errors will surely shrink as the batter accumulates more plate appearances and the numbers you work with get larger. But the math will still be off. Always. Unless the batter never draws a walk.


Edited by Guest
batmagadanleadoff College Ball

batmagadanleadoff

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted



who wants to tell them how many places include BB% in the list of stats? Is everyone here 65 years old?



[TWEET]https://x.com/JSterlingCalls/status/1300580776464068608https://x.com/JSterlingCalls/status/1300580776464068608[/TWEET]


Baseball Reference lists walk rates (BB%). It's in the Advanced Batting section for each player. Also, I don't get your age reference. You'd figure that, generally, younger fans would be more interested in walk rates than older fans.


CitiFieldPornRoom Prep Ball

CitiFieldPornRoom

Verified Member
Posted
Posted




who wants to tell them how many places include BB% in the list of stats? Is everyone here 65 years old?



[TWEET]https://x.com/JSterlingCalls/status/1300580776464068608https://x.com/JSterlingCalls/status/1300580776464068608[/TWEET]


Baseball Reference lists walk rates (BB%). It's in the Advanced Batting section for each player. Also, I don't get your age reference. You'd figure that, generally, younger fans would be more interested in walk rates than older fans.


Then what are we even talking about here? Looks like a multi-comment multi-day discussion on something that takes 3 seconds to look up. I think you can even get rolling averages from Savant if you want.


Frayed Knot FCL Mets

Frayed Knot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted


The difference between OBA and BA isn't a rate (as I said in my previous post) but merely a number. By comparing that number to the traditional (and little varying) league average of around 65-70 one can quickly see if a batter walks at rates greater or less than the overall norm. You're trying to turn it into a percentage and that was never the intent.


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