Predict the Mets, 2013

[bmfc1]

[u:3fvq0dye]Just the Mets:[/u:3fvq0dye]
1. Where they will finish in the NL East
2. What the final record will be
3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so
4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go?

Last year's winners were G-Fafif and metirish (74-88).
In 2011 the winner was Transmonk.
Don't be a J.J. Putz and predict "162-0" or "0-162".

Edited March 24, 2013 by Guest

[Gwreck]

4th
72-90
No wild card
No playoffs

[Benjamin Grimm]

1. Fourth place
2. 80-82 (I'm feeling optimistic.)
3. No.
4. No.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

Third place

85-77

No wildcard or playoffs.

(But, a nice step up in a transition year. Bold prediction: The second half of the season will be better than the first half, for a change.)

[bmfc1]

1. 4th Place
2. 71-91
3. No
4. No.

[ashie62]

5th

67-95

No
No

Very rough after AS break

[Fman99]

97-65
1st
Yes
WS champs

Yeah.

[MFS62]

4th
74-88
No
No

Later

[Guest Swan Swan H]

3rd (WAS, ATL, NYM, PHI, MIA)
81-81
No, and no.

[DocTee]

74-88.

Fourth.

Nope.

Nope.

[Edgy MD]

97 wins and 12 more in the post-season.

[nymr83]

3rd (behind WAS, ATL, ahead of MIA, PHI)
71-91
no
no

[TransMonk]

3rd Place
79-83
Nope
Nope

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

1. First!
2. 107-59
3. 11-0 in the playoffs!
4. World Series champions!

Edited March 25, 2013 by Guest

[metsmarathon]

second
87-75
second wild card
lose NLCS

[Guest sharpie]

fourth
73-89
no-no

[Vic Sage]

77-85
fourth
no
no

[Lefty Specialist]

68-94.
Fifth place (yes, behind the Marlins)
Obviously no.
Obviously no.

[seawolf17]

88-74
second place
WC
world series champs

YA. GOTTA. BELIEVE.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Looks like people are adopting my ridiculously optimistic outlier strategy. I may need to pump up the optimism or pour on some negativity to push prediction further into outlier territory.

[Ceetar]

86-76, third place, no playoffs.

[batmagadanleadoff]

bmfc1 wrote: Just the Mets: 1. Where they will finish in the NL East 2. What the final record will be 3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so 4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go? Last year's winners were G-Fafif and metirish (74-88). In 2011 the winner was Transmonk. Don't be a J.J. Putz and predict "162-0" or "0-162".

76-86, with not nearly as much gloom as many journalists expect. But this being the Mets, something will have to go absurdly wrong to confirm the Mets status as baseball's laughingstocks. Something like an unprecedented Summer monsoon hitting NYC during All Star Weekend, thus pushing back that game for more than a week, perhaps even threatening the game's cancellation. Harvey, Parnell and Ike will shine, providing real hope for a turnaround in 2014-15. I'm not predicting the Mets final spot in the standings because that implies predicting what the other teams do.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

4th
78-84
No
NO

And a FANTASTIC sales week for Amway in mid-July.

[G-Fafif]

4th Place
73-89
I don't believe there are playoffs for that.

I've been all over the win-total map (below the equator, anyway) in my head since this question was posed, going as low as 67 and rising up toward .500. This is more or less splitting the difference. If the Mets go 73-89, we can be told:

a) "the Mets won one fewer game than in 2012 but, really, they were a much better team and their future looks even brighter based on what we saw in the second half";

"on the 40th anniversary of '73, the Mets celebrated by winning 73 games";

c) and "they finished with the same record as they did in 1968...a harbinger of things to come? Manager Tim Teufel, who took over for Terry Collins in August, certainly thinks it could be."

I also imagine not losing 90 games will be hailed as a great Aldersonian success. Someone will have to wake him with the good news.

My gut also told me the Mets would either surpass the Phillies (who I think are going to suck) or fall behind the Marlins (who have Stanton), but the thinness of the starting rotation at season's beginning cooled my high hopes some, so the difference gets split again. Precedent can be suffocating, but I really do believe there will be a touch of 1983 to their arc: two horrible thirds, an encouraging final third on which to build. And 2014...well, who knows, but you never know.

[Edgy MD]

I got this strange notion that the next manager isn't Teufel or Backman, but their Metly contemporary Ron Gardenhire. He seems to be a lifetimer in Minnesota, but things are weird there right now.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm optimistic for the offense, I think they will surprise some people, maybe even you. Bullpen will be adequate and defense only okay. o

Starting pitching might really suck.
86-76, sneaks a playin wild card and goes all the way.

[Edgy MD]

Projecting our predictions across the first 11 games, Willets Point takes the lead.

Poster	Wins	Losses	Winning Pct.	GB
Met - Willets Point	7.27	3.73	.660	0.27
Mets	7	4	.636	---
Fman99	6.59	4.41	.599	0.41
Edgy MD	6.59	4.41	.599	0.41
seawolf17	5.98	5.02	.543	1.02
metsmarathon	5.91	5.09	.537	1.09
Ceetar	5.84	5.16	.531	1.16
John Cougar Lunchbucket	5.84	5.16	.531	1.16
metsguyinmichigan	5.77	5.23	.525	1.23
Swan Swan H	5.50	5.50	.500	1.50
Benjamin Grimm	5.43	5.57	.494	1.57
Transmonk	5.36	5.64	.488	1.64
LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr	5.30	5.70	.481	1.70
Vic Sage	5.23	5.77	.475	1.77
batmagadanleadoff	5.16	5.84	.469	1.84
MFS62	5.02	5.98	.457	1.98
Doc Tee	5.02	5.98	.457	1.98
sharpie	4.96	6.04	.451	2.04
G-Fafif	4.96	6.04	.451	2.04
Gwreck	4.89	6.11	.444	2.11
bmfc1	4.82	6.18	.438	2.18
Lefty Specialist	4.62	6.38	.420	2.38
Ashie62	4.55	6.45	.414	2.45

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Mets currently have a winning percentage of .389, which is worse than anyone predicted. They project to a final record of 63 wins and 99 losses.

[Edgy MD]

Good update. Congratulations to current leader Ashie62.

[Benjamin Grimm]

A four-game winning streak has the Mets up to a winning percentage of .420, which is still bad but a bit less horrible than were they had been. They currently project to a final record of 68-94.