Schaefer Commentary II

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Those voters that always award a total of 10 points for every game will have a tough time finding perfomances worthy of such totals for last night's 6-2 defeat against the Nationals. The Mets performance and performance really wreaked in that game.

[Gwreck]

Rockin' Doc wrote: Those voters that always award a total of 10 points for every game will have a tough time finding perfomances worthy of such totals for last night's 6-2 defeat against the Nationals. The Mets performance and performance really wreaked in that game.

No kidding. I maintain it's games like those that so obviously show the flaw of always awarding 10 points.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for last Wednesday night's win over the Pirates, and Thursday afternoon's loss, will close on Tuesday.

July 25, Mets 6, Pirates 3: http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6952

July 26: Pirates 8, Mets 4: http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6957


The entire four-game series against the Nationals will close on Wednesday.

[Guest Edgy DC]

A request. I hope we can link to recap/box in future dates, instead of just a box, so if I vote a few days late, I can be reminded that, oh, right, that's the game where he turned that nifty DP, or that's the game Beltran climbed the hill.

[Willets Point]

Damn! I'm way behind in voting again.

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's okay, I'm a little behind in tallying.

There are currently six games open, and they'll all be closed by Wednesday.

[metsmarathon]

damnit, where the hell is that skate key?

yance, do you mind holding off on the pittsburgh loss until this afternoon when i can get to winding up poor, underutilized m.e.t.b.o.t.? should be about 1 or so.

[stevejrogers]

metsmarathon wrote: damnit, where the hell is that skate key? yance, do you mind holding off on the pittsburgh loss until this afternoon when i can get to winding up poor, underutilized m.e.t.b.o.t.? should be about 1 or so.

Maybe he was spending a little too much time with those guys in my co-worker's office?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for all four games against the Nationals will close on Wednesday:

Friday, Washington 6, Mets 2: http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6967
Saturday, Mets 3, Washington 1: http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6970
Saturday, Washington 6, Mets 5: http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6974
Sunday, Mets 5, Washington 0: http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6977


ALL four games are especially light in vote counts. If you haven't voted yet, please do so.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. would like to point out a remarkable bit of information. were m.e.t.b.o.t to be performing schaeffer-like voting for the washington nationals instead of the new york mets, m.e.t.b.o.t. would be faced with quite a dilemma. you see, the washington nationals, in the 29 july 5 inning loss against the mets, had not a single player perform in such a fashion as to increase the chances of a national win. each and every single player contributed negatively.

were there a robot similar to m.e.t.b.o.t. that performed this voting function for the nationals, a n.a.t.b.o.t., as it were, then that robot would be unable to vote for the game. or at least, m.e.t.b.o.t. would be unable to distribute schaeffer votes in a game in which no met contributes positively. n.a.t.b.o.t. might have better programming and a higher budget, who knows.

to date, this has yet to happen to the mets, and m.e.t.b.o.t. prefers that this continues, as it is m.e.t.b.o.t.'s preference to be able to vote in any and all games for which m.e.t.b.o.t.'s skate key is turned.

also, if this were to happen to the mets, then it would mean that the mets would have lost a given game, perhaps badly so, thereby lessening m.e.t.b.o.t.'s probability of participating in postseason schaeffer voting. while m.e.t.b.o.t. does not possess an ability to feel excitement, postseason schaeffer voting is an objective of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Sorry, m.e.t.b.o.t., we don't do post-season Schaefer voting. (I guess October 2006 was before you were born.)

[Centerfield]

Wait m.e.t.b.o.t., how is that possible? Didn't they pick up a hit? How would that have a negative impact?

How about outs recorded by the Nats pitchers? Doesn't that have a positive effect?

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think he found the lone hit --- a one-out first-inning single by Belliard --- offset by his popout in the fourth.

Belliard also handled two chances, but the 'b.o.t. doesn't count fielding.

[metsmarathon]

hey, i thought we at least did unofficial postseason voting...

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

no schaeffer voting? how unfortunate. m.e.t.b.o.t. will still use the postseason to practice voting to help ensure a more seamless 2008 voting season, with luck.

as to the game, both national pitchers allowed runs to be scored. national pitcher chris schroder came into the 3rd inning with runners on first and second, and allowed a run-scoring single to metropolitan third baseman david wright. the run belonged to national pitcher billy traber, but the reduction in win expectancy belonged to national pitcher chris schroder.

national second baseman ronnie belliard just barely negated a first inning, one out single, +0.024 WPA, with a leadoff out in the top of the 4th, -0.027 WPA, for a net of -0.003 win probability added.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I've got to think his successful chances get him back into the black.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

in the fourth inning, national second baseman ronnie belliard fielded a throw from national pitcher billy traber to record the first out of the inning on metropolitan pitcher john maine at first base, while metropolitan second baseman ruben gotay advanced to second base. the total win probability added to the nationals was 0.005.

in the fifth inning, national second baseman ronnie belliard caught a pop fly ball from metropolitan left fielder moises alou to record the first out. the total win probability added to the nationals was 0.004.

the maximum theoretical win probability added by ronnie belliard's defense is 0.009. were there a method to discern the contribution of fielders, in catching batted balls, throwing batted balls, catching thrown balls, and applying tags to runners, from the pitcher's contribution in throwing a pitch which resulted in the chance for the fielder, then m.e.t.b.o.t. would perform such a calculation.

the one thing that m.e.t.b.o.t. does not yet have any information regarding is whether the shortstop or the second baseman was covering second base when metropolitan third baseman successfully stole second base. were a defender to receive credit for his participation in other fielding chances, then a defender would also have to receive debits for his participation in a successful stolen base for the opposition. m.e.t.b.o.t. is not programmed with the knowledge of whether or not a player fielding a throw on an attempted stolen base is credited with a defensive chance when that stolen base attempt is successful, and therefore cannot be certain that the two defensive chances cited by human poster edgy dc would necessarily include this defensive play.

the known defensive chances, assuming some amount of contribution by national second baseman ronnie belliard, may offset the negative offensive contribution, and there is admittedly a chance that in total, national poster ronnie belliard might have a total nonnegative contribution.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Tuesday night's 13-inning loss in Milwaukee will close on Friday.

http://cranepoolforum.qwknetllc.com/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6995

That will also close out July, so look for the Player of the Month and Pitcher of the Month announcement some time tomorrow.

Only five voters so far for that Brewers game, so please get your votes in soon if you plan to and haven't done so.

[metsmarathon]

i wanna give milledge and green some glove love, but i just can't...

i am looking into a tweak to my formula that'd do just such a thing, but i wanna see how it'd affect my voting so far before i do just such a thing. basically i'm starting to look at LOB's a bit more harshly, and non-linearly so. the difference between leaving 1 on base and 2 on base is less than between leaving 3 on base and 4. also, i need to be giving more credit for saves, and for excellent glovework. we'll see what i come up with...

[Benjamin Grimm]

Last call for Tuesday night's 13-inning game:

http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6995

Eight voters so far. If your name isn't G-Fafif, Yancy Street Gang, bmfc1, Frayed Knot, metirish, Kid Carsey, metsmarathon, or m.e.t.b.o.t. and you want to vote this game, please do it this morning. At some point after 12 noon today the voting will close.

Since the game was played on the last day of July, look for the Player and Pitcher of the Month announcement some time this afternoon.

[Willets Point]

Is this the game that Milledge made that great catch? I don't think it's enough to outweigh his negative offensive performance for my formula, but it would explain to me why he's getting so many points from other voters.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If your name is G-Fafif, bmfc1, Yancy Street Gang, Edgy DC, TransMonk, metirish, Frayed Knot, or Gwreck, then you've already voted for Wednesday night's 8-5 win over the Brewers.

If not, please vote soon because the game will close over the weekend.

[Gwreck]

I wish you would hold the games open a little longer sometimes. Tuesday's game (in which I just voted (oops!) after it was closed) was open for voting less than 72 hours.

[Benjamin Grimm]

You get two full weekdays. A Tuesday game will close on Friday.

A Friday game will close on Wednesday.

Some say the games are open for too long and that the forum gets too filled up with Schaefer threads. Others say that they close too quickly, so there's no pleasing everybody.

Sorry you missed out on that game, but these things do move quickly.

On the other hand, I'm going to be on vacation the last two weeks of August, so the games played during that time will be open much longer than usual.

[G-Fafif]

So I was browsing through the 1979 yearbook last night (as I'm sure most people were) and I noticed a picture of Willie Monta�ez being presented his...Schaefer Player of the Year Award for 1978! Looked like it was at Al Lang. Ralph Kiner took part in the ceremony.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Really???

Wow!

That's our first case of an actual documented winner that we've been able to unearth.

Nice going! I'm going to scramble for my 1979 yearbook right now. I'll have to post that photo on this page.

[Benjamin Grimm]

You must have a different edition than the one I do, Greg. Mine has no such picture, although it does have this gem:

http://leaptoad.com/mets/jpeg/woody_flynn.jpg

And there's also a Rolaids ad that says that in 1978 the Mets spelled relief S-K-I-P L-O-C-K-W-O-O-D.

[G-Fafif]

Page 43. Leroy Neiman and, I'm guessing, a brewery exec are in on it. You'd think he'd get beer, but he gets a Neiman.

It's on the page labeled Celebrity Friends, including Garrett Morris, Eartha Kitt and Andy Warhol.

The '79 Mets...who knew?

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's some bad Schaefer voting. Willie may have styled on his homers and popup catches, and (barely) led the team in homers but he was more like the fifth best Met.

[G-Fafif]

96 RBI at the time was third-best in club history, behind Staub and Clendenon. On a team with 96 losses, they loomed awfully large. Twenty-three more than his nearest competitor.