Schaefer Commentary II

[metsmarathon]

SteveJRogers wrote: Do we have to declare a winner for the month of June?

we could all just whine a lot and become yankee fans instead...

[stevejrogers]

Hey m.e.t.b.o.t. I have a nice picture of you hanging with some other famous 'bots that I'm going to send to metsmarathon hopefully this weekend/early next week.

A co-worker of mine has a nifty collection in his office, and I think he may get a kick out of the concept of m.e.t.b.o.t.

[metsmarathon]

you have a very odd and disturbing interest in m.e.t.b.o.t, don't you?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the June 13 game against the Dodgers will close in the next day or two.

Only 8 voters so far, so if you're not G-Fafif, Yancy Street Gang, Johnny Dickshot, Kid Carsey, sharpie, metirish, metsmarathon, or Frayed Knot, and you want to vote, now is the time to do it.

All three games against the Yankees, and all three against the Twins, will also be closing early in the coming week. I'll post links here in this thread when I get the chance.


Mets at LA, 6/13: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6604

[Benjamin Grimm]

It's time to start getting caught up.

Six games will be closing on Tuesday morning, the three in the Bronx and the three at Shea against the Twins:

June 15; Mets 2, Yankees 0: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6622
June 16; Yankees 11, Mets 8: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6625
June 17; Yankees 8, Mets 2: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6631

June 18; Mets 8, Twins 1: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6648
June 19; Twins 9, Mets 0: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6653
June 20; Twins 6, Mets 2: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6664


Voting for the Oakland series will close on Wednesday. I'll post a reminder here again (with links) on Tuesday.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It looks like the Mets recent winning streak hasn't been enough to overcome the voter apathy caused by all the losing that the team has done this month. We seem to be down to about 10 or 11 core voters, which isn't much higher than the 7 we were down to at the end of last year.

Hopefully the Mets will continue to win and enthusiasm for Schaefer will pick up as well.

Anyway, the series against the Yankees and Twins are wrapped up. The three games at Shea against the Athletics will close tomorrow (Wednesday).

June 22; Mets 10, Oakland 2: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6677
June 23; Mets 1, Oakland 0: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6681
June 24; Mets 9, Oakland 1: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6687

Last night's 11-inning win over the Cardinals will close on Thursday.

Player and Pitcher of the Month for June will be announced some time in the middle of next week.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think voter interest is in part a reflection of the forum speed.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Good point!

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I will try to vote for the A's series later tonight. Hopefully, it won't ake all night to do so.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Monday night's 11-inning win over the Cards at Shea will close on Thursday:

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6702

[Benjamin Grimm]

The 11-inning Tuesday night loss to the Cardinals will close on Friday:

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6712

Only four voters so far! Please try to get your votes in today.

[Willets Point]

Yancy, I haven't been able to follow the Mets the past few weeks and most of the games are closed so I can't catch up. Sorry.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the Mets' cute little 6-inning win over the Cardinals on Wednesday night will close some time over the weekend.

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6722

[metsmarathon]

damnit, i have got to get on up off my ass!

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for all four games against the Phillies will close either on Wednesday or Thursday.

Vote counts are shrinking, Schaefer apathy is growing.

I'll announce the June Player and Pitcher of the month on Thursday, if I feel like it!


June 29, Game 1: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6738 (9 votes so far)
June 29, Game 2: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6740 (8 votes)
June 30: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6746 (only 7)
July 1: http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6753 (only 5!)

[metsmarathon]

DAMNIT! i suck.

i did all my voting for the games late yesterday at work, but was going to post 'em today as i had to get home... looks like i miss out. sonofabitch...

[Gwreck]

Isn't there a page that lists day-by-day voting totals? Crap, I can't find it.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Gwreck wrote: Isn't there a page that lists day-by-day voting totals? Crap, I can't find it.

http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the first of the three losses in Denver will close on Friday:

http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=6761

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

m.e.t.b.o.t. wrote: Easley 0.50 Mota 0.14 Heilman 0.06

M.e.t.b.o.t. is awesome

[metirish]

Very varied voting for the 17 inning game,specifically for Beltran.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the following games will close on Tuesday:

07/03/07 Rockies 11, Mets 3: http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6769

07/04/07 Rockies 17, Mets 7: http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6774

07/05/07 Mets 6, Astros 2: http://cranepoolforum.net/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=6785

[Willets Point]

2nd Half Resolution: I've been unable to follow the Mets much the past 3-4 weeks and thus not voting, but starting on Thursday I'll resume voting for every game.

[Gwreck]

metirish wrote: Very varied voting for the 17 inning game,specifically for Beltran.

No kidding. I think the problem is that in the extra-inning games, everybody's voting philosophy seems to either be tested or ignored. There certainly are some head scratchers.

A game in which the bullpen tosses 10 innings of scoreless relief -- gets a total of one-half schaefer point awarded?

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. must confess that m.e.t.b.o.t. was forced to perform a singular modification to m.e.t.b.o.t.'s scoring methodology for the extra-inning game.

ordinarily, m.e.t.b.o.t. does not score defensive plays, as there is no win expectancy breakdown between what the pitcher does and what the defense behind the pitcher does - m.e.t.b.o.t. attributes all defensive play to the pitchers' win expectancy. likewise, all baserunner contributions to win expectancy after a batted ball are attributed to the batter.

however, in this one instance, m.e.t.b.o.t. made an exception - surprisingly, m.e.t.b.o.t.'s programming allows such flexibility - who knew?!

to give credit to joe smith for carlos beltran's uphill catch is considered to be an inappropriate scoring decision, particularly for such an exceptional effort. ordinarily, such plays would not trigger a need to adjust scoring.

with batters on first and third, two outs, bottom of the inning, houston had a 64.1% chance of winning the game. after beltran's catch, houston had only a 50% chance of winning the game. beltran's catch took 14.1% win expectancy away from houston, and gave it to the mets.

including his go-ahead rbi in the 17th inning, the total of beltran's win percentage added throughout the game, with his bat, was a negative 4.2%! using m.e.t.b.o.t.'s typical scoring methodology, m.e.t.b.o.t. would not have awarded any schaeffer points to carlos beltran.

however, because of the extraordinary nature of the catch, m.e.t.b.o.t. determined that the appropriate course of action would be to deduct 14.1% win expectancy from joe smith, who would otherwise have been taking credit for the catch, and adding it to beltran's total, yielding a net win expectancy of +9.9% for beltran throughout the game, good for 0.66 schaeffer points.

incidentally, this action reduced the vote total for joe smith from 2.75 to 1.89 schaeffer points, and also resulted in a slight (~0.02 schaeffer points) increase for all other point-getters.

[G-Fafif]

metirish wrote: Very varied voting for the 17 inning game,specifically for Beltran.

I gave Beltran my first "6" of the year. Since I refuse to slice and dice any thinner than a half-point, I realized that would leave a lot of deserving Mets dry and I felt a little bad about that (especially considering the bonuses the players get based on our support). But dang it, I reasoned, if making the play of the year (of several years) in the fourteenth inning with everything on the line AND driving in the winning run isn't overwhelming Player of the Game stuff, then what is?

Spreading the credit around because it takes a village to win an epic ballgame is a valid impulse. But I have the feeling if we had been running this exercise for the Giants on October 3, 1951, we'd have given Bobby Thomson no more than 2.5 points for his world-heard shot because how can you overlook Sal Maglie and Whitey Lockman and we have to give a point to Larry Jansen for holding the Dodgers in the ninth. (We'd also be all "WHOA! WHAT IS THAT MACHINE? A COMPUTER? WHAT'S THAT?")

[Guest Iubitul]

I think Rickey programmed m.e.t.b.o.t.

[Guest Edgy DC]

m.e.t.b.o.t wrote: with batters on first and third, two outs, bottom of the inning, houston had a 64.1% chance of winning the game. after beltran's catch, houston had only a 50% chance of winning the game. beltran's catch took 14.1% win expectancy away from houston, and gave it to the mets. including his go-ahead rbi in the 17th inning, the total of beltran's win percentage added throughout the game, with his bat, was a negative 4.2%! using m.e.t.b.o.t.'s typical scoring methodology, m.e.t.b.o.t. would not have awarded any schaeffer points to carlos beltran. however, because of the extraordinary nature of the catch, m.e.t.b.o.t. determined that the appropriate course of action would be to deduct 14.1% win expectancy from joe smith, who would otherwise have been taking credit for the catch, and adding it to beltran's total, yielding a net win expectancy of +9.9% for beltran throughout the game, good for 0.66 schaeffer points.

It can be reasoned that Beltran's catch didn't merely send the game from Houston having a 64.1% chance of winning to Houston having a 50% chance of winning, but rather that the hit boosted Hoston's chance from 64.1% to 99.1%, and the catch back down to 50%.

In other words, -35.0% for Heilman and +49.1% for Beltran. m.e.t.b.o.t. is measuring the net game turn from the pitch to the catch. But he should perhaps consider the game turn from the pitch to the hit, and the hit to to the catch seperately, as hard as that is.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

intriguing that m.e.t.b.o.t should be encouraged to detract from aaron heilman whereas it was joe smith who made the pitch that became the catch.

m.e.t.b.o.t. considers human poster edgydc's approach to be valid, however, m.e.t.b.o.t. evaluates only known or knowable quantities. since there is no known historical data supporting the expectancy of luke scott's ball resulting in a run scoring, as opposed to an out, m.e.t.b.o.t. cannot in good calculation utilize such an approach, regardless of its apparent soundness.

were m.e.t.b.o.t. to assume a 100% expectancy that the batted ball would result in a hit, the maximum theoretical value, then there would be a -35.9% for joe smith and a +50% for carlos beltran.

were this to be done, then the following would be the resulting vote totals. note that this would result also in joe smith receiving zero schaeffer points.

Beltran 2.89 +2.23
Mota 1.81 -0.08
Sele 1.42 -0.07
Heilman 0.88 -0.04
Franco 0.79 -0.04
Feliciano 0.73 -0.03
Wagner 0.61 -0.03
Wright 0.57 -0.03
Glavine 0.19 -0.01
Delgado 0.11 nc
Schoeneweis 0.01 nc
Smith 0.00 -1.89

m.e.t.b.o.t. strongly desires an improved method for attributing defensive contributions to players, however, assuming the outcome of a given batted ball is considered to be problematic for most circumstances.

the flaw inherent in the method m.e.t.b.o.t. utilizes for adjusting schaeffer vote totals for the 17 inning game is that the pitcher is not discredited for allowing the ball to be hit. however, the result of the pitch, and subsequently the batted ball is of prime importance, as it is the result which determines the outcome of the game, and not necessarily teh manner in which the outcome was arrived at. for this reason, m.e.t.b.o.t. will continue to apply his calculations as previously described.

[Gwreck]

="G-Fafif"]I gave Beltran my first "6" of the year. Since I refuse to slice and dice any thinner than a half-point, I realized that would leave a lot of deserving Mets dry and I felt a little bad about that (especially considering the bonuses the players get based on our support). But dang it, I reasoned, if making the play of the year (of several years) in the fourteenth inning with everything on the line AND driving in the winning run isn't overwhelming Player of the Game stuff, then what is?

But he can be player of the game without giving him 6 points, can't he?

Didn't Pedro Feliciano get it done in the 9th with everything on the line, too? And Joe Smith in the 12th? If they don't get it done there, Beltran doesn't even have a chance.

P.S. Before the 14th, Carlos didn't exactly have a great game, either. He's failed to get it done in the 6th, 8th, 11th, and 13th.

]Spreading the credit around because it takes a village to win an epic ballgame is a valid impulse. But I have the feeling if we had been running this exercise for the Giants on October 3, 1951, we'd have given Bobby Thomson no more than 2.5 points for his world-heard shot because how can you overlook Sal Maglie and Whitey Lockman and we have to give a point to Larry Jansen for holding the Dodgers in the ninth.

I don't think a playoff for the pennant is comparable to an out-of-division game in early July.