KTE: Cuck the Fubs, autumnally

[Fman99]

They have a catcher. I'm sure he's a dick.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think that about sums it up.

Thanks!

[Benjamin Grimm]

It looks like Lester in Game 1, Arrieta in Game 2. (At least, that's what's currently posted.)

I was afraid we'd have to face Arrieta three times. (And we still might; they may switch their plans and have him start Game 1 on three days rest.)

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Bring on fucking Jake Arietta.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The TBS announcers said that Tuesday's Game 4 in Chicago is going to be a day game.

That's not confirmed here yet, but I think tomorrow I'll put in for a day off from work that day.

[Elster88]

Already had to see Grienke and Kershaw of course Arrieta is next

[Frayed Knot]

Well one guy they won't have is Addison Russell as their rookie 2B-turned-SS is on the shelf for this series with a hamstring pull.
They didn't switch him over to SS until early August (essentially swapping positions with Starlin Castro) but he looks to be the best defensive choice out of the 8 or 9 shortstops they seem to have over there. Second year man Javier Baez took over in the final few games vs the Cards with Castro staying at 2nd so it looks like that may be the way they play it although Maddon does a lot of position switching including some IF/OF shuffling.

[Lefty Specialist]

As you know, the Cubs fans believe that they haven’t been back to the World Series since 1945 because a fan wasn’t allowed to bring his pet goat into Wrigley Field and they’ve been cursed ever since.


The name of that pet goat?


Murphy.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ooooh! Nice find!

[seawolf17]

I saw the Cubs on the final weekend in Milwaukee, and this is hardly a scouting report, but I honestly wasn't all that impressed. Kris Bryant struck out three times, all with runners on base, and Rizzo wasn't any better. Arrieta is scary, but the other starters aren't.

[MFS62]

Ex- Pirate pitcher Bob Veale was the first I heard say it, "Good pitching stops good hitting- and vice versa."

Yeah, I know. The Cubs swept the Mets this year. But, as in 1969, the Mets will again crush the hopes and dreams of the Cubs fans on their way to another World Series. - in six games.

Later

[Lefty Specialist]

Mets have a decided pitching advantage, except when Arietta pitches. Cubs have a decided hitting advantage.

Cubs have speed, Mets don't. But the Mets better be running on Lester, who can't or won't throw to first.

[bmfc1]

From a comment at the 506.com message board: "If history is any indication (or if you want to go by Titan), Tuesdays split will be TBS at 4 and FS1 at 8 and reversed for Wednesday. That will leave Saturdays NLCS G6 at 4, but moving to 8 if the ALCS ends early."

[Gwreck]

Thanks bmfc!

Chicago - New York is far and away the ratings winner (and they would probably want that in primetime) but I bet they have to give a night game to the AL series in the contract somewhere.

[Edgy MD]

I've gotten the idea that they want the big ratings market to have the lousier slot.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think Gwreck is right. The network carrying the AL Games probably has a right to a prime time game during the week.

[metsmarathon]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Mets have a decided pitching advantage, except when Arietta pitches. Cubs have a decided hitting advantage. Cubs have speed, Mets don't. But the Mets better be running on Lester, who can't or won't throw to first.

as a team, the cubs have hit 172 home runs this season. the mets? 177.

in the second half of the season, the cubs have hit 94 home runs. the mets? 102.

the cubs walk more than the mets do (9.5% to 8.7% in the 2nd half) but strike out a LOT more (24.9% to 20.9% in the second half). and this plays perfectly into the mets' pitching strength of massive strikeouts and minimal walks. in the second half, while both teams were basically at their fullest strength and most representative of their playoff selves, the mets had a higher batting average, and a higher isoP.

but, yeah, the cubs are a faster team, with 95 stolen bases on the season compared to the mets' meager 54. (38:18 in the 2nd half)

but wait... lets look at pitching...

the cubs team ERA is better than the mets. (3.36:3.45 for the full season; 3.42:3.72 in the second half; 3.29:3.46 for starters in the 2nd half; 3.64:4.20 for relievers in the 2nd half). the cubs have a higher k/9 than the mets, as a team, and give up fewer home runs. the mets' sole advantage is in bb/9.

ranking by ERA, the cubs have the best starter, but the next 4 belong to the mets.

pitcher	ERA	FIP
arrieta	1.77	2.35
=#0000FF] matz	2.27	3.61
=#0000FF] degrom	2.54	2.7
=#0000FF] harvey	2.71	3.05
=#0000FF] syndergaard	3.24	3.25
lester	3.34	2.92
hendricks	3.95	3.36
hammel	3.74	3.68

the problem is, is we use FIP, we don't see nearly as rosy a picture, as the mets' young guns' ERAs have largely outperformed their FIPs, while their FIPs are considered to be more indicative of their true pitching performance.

pitcher	ERA	FIP
arrieta	1.77	2.35
=#0000FF] degrom	2.54	2.7
lester	3.34	2.92
=#0000FF] harvey	2.71	3.05
=#0000FF] syndergaard	3.24	3.25
hendricks	3.95	3.36
=#0000FF] matz	2.27	3.61
hammel	3.74	3.68

defensively (i don't feel like spouting the data here, sorry), the cubs have a better infield defense (though how much of htat is lost by replacing russel with baez?) while the mets have a better outfield defense. neither the mets nor the cubs hit a lot of ground balls, so the edge may actually go to the mets here!

mind you, none of this, not even a little, is what i would have expected based on my knowledge of either team, before i dove into the numbers.

how it all adds up? uh... i dunno. it promises to be a fun, interesting, excruciating, and evenly matched series. lets fucking go, mets!

[Ceetar]

Thor's troll game is strong. (That's chicago)

[bmfc1]

Umps. No CB Bucknor.
http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/10/16/nlcs-alcs-umpires-announced/

[bmfc1]

Update on the times:
All games at 8:07 except for Game 6 which is 4:07 unless the ALCS is over in which case that game is also at 8:07.

In other words: you're gonna be tired the next day.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Guest

[Farmer Ted]

Kyle Schwarber, truly talented. Before he got juiced up playing ball at Indiana. Just speculation folks.

http://deadspin.com/kyle-schwarber-was-once-a-high-school-show-choir-stud-1736920341

[Benjamin Grimm]

Okay, as somebody who hasn't paid a whole lot of attention to the Cubs all year, I have some catching up to do.

Many of you may already know this, but I'll post it anyway.

The Cubs had four pitchers in 2015 who had more than 30 starts. Each of those four starters got one start in the NLDS against St. Louis. I figure they're the guys we're most likely to see in the NLCS. One of the names clearly stands out from the others:

[list:19qdwo3e]Jon Lester (LHP) Age 31. 11-12, 3.34 ERA, 1.122 WHIP
Kyle Hendricks (RHP) Age 25. 8-7, 3.95 ERA, 1.161 WHIP
Jake Arrieta (RHP) Age 29. 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP
Jason Hammel (RHP) Age 32. 10-7, 3.74 ERA, 1.160 WHIP[/list:u:19qdwo3e]

[dinosaur jesus]

Somehow it's Lester I 'm concerned about. I've got visions of Bruce Hurst shutting the Mets down after being overshadowed by Roger Clemens. If they can beat Lester, I'll feel pretty good about this series.

[Frayed Knot]

Other than having to replace Russell at SS probably with Javier Baez (see above) the Cubs are pretty much set in the rest of the infield:
- Rizzo at 1st -- lefty stick, good pop, draws walks, fields well
- Starlin Castro at 2B -- RH, decent pop but low OBP. Was moved off of SS for Russell in mid-season .
- Kris Bryant at 3B -- Rookie, RH, tons of power, lots of Ks.
Former Brave Tommy LaStella occasionally fills in at 2nd or 3rd

Their OF situation is a little more fluid:
- CF is the most settled with switch-hitting Dexter Fowler getting almost all the starts. Good speed/glove, decent hitting
- Kyle Schwarber: 22 y/o, LHB, came up as a catcher but has started there only 15 times. Mostly he takes his ridiculous raw power to one of the corner spots then usually get pulled for late inning defense or for LHPs.
- Jorge Soler, Chris Denorfia, Austin Jackson, Chris Coughlin mix and match all over the OF with even Kris Bryant getting the occasional game in LF. Maddon isn't afraid to juggle.

Catcher: Combo of former DBack Miguel Montero (LHB) and the gray-bearded David Ross (RHB). Montego hits, Ross doesn't.

[Valadius]

[batmagadanleadoff]

Lefty Specialist wrote: As you know, the Cubs fans believe that they haven’t been back to the World Series since 1945 because a fan wasn’t allowed to bring his pet goat into Wrigley Field and they’ve been cursed ever since. The name of that pet goat? Murphy.

Want more Murphy?

The name of the Cubs owner when they last won the WS in 1908? Charles Murphy

The name of the GM of the team (Mets) that broke the Cubs hearts in the pennant race in a year (1969) that the Cubs assumed they'd get to the WS? Johnny Murphy

The Mets announcer that year? Bob Murphy

The home stadium of the team (Padres) that eliminated the Cubs in their first playoff appearance since 1945? Jack Murphy Stadium

And then Daniel Murphy happened.

[Guest El Segundo Escupidor]

The Billy Goat has the same name as Billy Joel and they both stink.

[Centerfield]

What a strange series. Even after 4 games, I'm not sure I really got to know this Cubs team. And weird that after a playoff series, I have no ill will against any of them.

I mean, I hated Turner, I dreaded Adrian Gonzalez, was petrified of Kershaw and Greinke, and wanted Utley's head. But I'm pretty cool with all the Cubs. Especially Schwarber. I guess that's what happens when you never trail during an entire series.

Will probably feel a lot different when we face them a year from now.

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Lefty Specialist wrote: As you know, the Cubs fans believe that they haven’t been back to the World Series since 1945 because a fan wasn’t allowed to bring his pet goat into Wrigley Field and they’ve been cursed ever since. The name of that pet goat? Murphy. Want more Murphy? The name of the Cubs owner when they last won the WS in 1908? Charles Murphy The name of the GM of the team (Mets) that broke the Cubs hearts in the pennant race in a year (1969) that the Cubs assumed they'd get to the WS? Johnny Murphy The Mets announcer that year? Bob Murphy The home stadium of the team (Padres) that eliminated the Cubs in their first playoff appearance since 1945? Jack Murphy Stadium And then Daniel Murphy happened.

There was a Daniel Murphy that beat them in the 1910 WS I believe.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I didn't hate Turner. I remember the Mets Christmas e-mail that they sent a few years ago, when they had different players singing parts of a Christmas song. When it was Lucas Duda's turn, he just stood there mute while Justin Turner did the singing for him.

It was frustrating seeing how much success he was having against the Mets, but I have no ill will towards him.

Utley, on the other hand...