The New deGrom Deserves His Own Thread Again Thread

[kcmets]

Mets general manager Billy Eppler said he talked to Jacob deGrom one-on-one on Sunday night. “He knows how we feel," explained Eppler. "I know how he feels. It was a good conversation. … Things are positive.” The Mets' ace is widely-expected to exercise the opt-out in his contract (rather than make $30.5M in 2023) and test the open market this offseason. DeGrom is capable of being the best pitcher in the world, but it's a complicated situation with his injury history and the way he scuffled down the stretch. The 34-year-old completed seven innings just twice in his 11 starts this season. He's going to make big money no matter what (perhaps looking at Max Scherzer's record $43.3M AAV on a short-term deal), but it will be fascinating to see how this plays out. There's certainly some urgency from the Mets' perspective with Scherzer as the only sure thing in the rotation at the moment, but it's just a matter of how they want to spend. SOURCE: Deesha Thosar on Twitter Oct 14, 2022, 11:42 AM ET

My hope is Jake soon says something like this, "after thinking about things

a lot and how the season ended I've decided not to opt out of my contract

because I feel there's some unfinished business to do in 2023 and I'm all in.

Hopefully the team will bring back a lot of the free agents too, we're a good

group and I'm kahnfident we can win it all in 2023."



Edited some punctuation

Edited October 16, 2022 by Guest

[The Hot Corner]

I too dream that Jake would decide no to opt out, but I'm afraid that's only a dream. Just like virtually every other player that hits the open market, money talks. I expect he is looking for a huge increase in his annual salary and he will almost assuredly sign with the highest bidder. If that happens to be the Mets, I'm sure he will be happy, but I don't expect him to give them a discount to stay with the organization.

[Fman99]

I think even if he comes back to Flushing in 2023 it'd be on a new deal. I also think some other team backs up the truck and offers him a Scherzer-style contract, only for 4-5 years instead of 3, and that he chases the $ like they all do

[metsmarathon]

if he doesn't opt out, it will be because he's accepted an extension from the mets.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I really think he's gone, and that letting him go is the wise move. It will be an interesting off-season.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I really think he's gone ....

Me too. I think he already knows which team he's going to and that his representatives already had secret talks with the prospective new team to feel each other out and establish important parameters.



It's the way deGrom is so adamant about not wanting to talk about his upcoming contract. Many players take that position once the season starts, but there's something different about the way deGrom's handling this. It's as if he knows he's leaving and wants to avoid the topic as much as possible because it's a very difficult decision for him to make and a large part of him wants to remain a Met.



This comment that Steve Cohen made about a month and a half ago convinced me and was my last straw:

“We love Jacob, and I think he's the best pitcher in baseball,” Cohen told The Post on Saturday before the Mets hosted the Rockies at Citi Field. “We'll do whatever we can to make sure he stays. But it's his decision, not ours.”

https://nypost.com/2022/08/27/steve-cohen-adamant-mets-will-do-whatever-we-can-to-keep-jacob-degrom/https://nypost.com/2022/08/27/steve-cohen-adamant-mets-will-do-whatever-we-can-to-keep-jacob-degrom/



It seemed to me that Cohen was setting up the fanbase for the inevitable news that will disappoint many, when deGrom announces that he's signing elsewhere -- and also, pre-emptively deflecting blame for when deGrom does leave. I get the sense that deGrom and the Mets already had meaningful "feel each other out" talks that indicated that deGrom is likely to leave. If the Wilpons still owned the Mets, this would be easy to figure out. Well, first of all, the Wilpon Mets couldn't afford deGrom at the current market rate, so there's that and that's a big that. But beyond that, if the Wilpon Mets were pretty sure that deGrom was leaving, they'd be shitcanning deGrom through press leaks every other week.



Anyways, what do I know? I don't know anything youse don't already know. I'm just speculating. This is my take.

[Gwreck]

The Hot Corner wrote: Just like virtually every other player that hits the open market, money talks. I expect he is looking for a huge increase in his annual salary and he will almost assuredly sign with the highest bidder. If that happens to be the Mets, I'm sure he will be happy, but I don't expect him to give them a discount to stay with the organization.

Agree.



I fully expect the Mets to equal (or top) the best offer deGrom gets. And if he wants to go elsewhere, well, that'll be his choice. But I see no circumstance in which the Mets are outbid.

[duan]

the mets should be prepared to be outbid depending on what the other bids are!

what do I think sounds reasonable... I dunno 4*40 ?

Seems like a hell of a lot for a guy who you have to worry about keeping healthy.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think they should forget about deGrom (unless his price comes down) and look in another direction.

[Edgy MD]

Why forget about him before the free agency period has started and before his price has been set?



They have exclusive negotiating rights with him right now. To forget about him now is throw away an asset nobody else has.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Note the parenthetical (unless his price comes down). If he's looking for $40 million plus, they should let him leave. If he's inclined to be more reasonable, then yes, they should talk to him.

[Edgy MD]

Well, his price won't come down if they forget about him. Also, we don't actually know what his price is. We'll see.



I see the value of treating oneself as the party that is hard to get, but we're working from assumptions here, are we not?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Oh, definitely. My point is if he wants Scherzer money, you have to let him go. I doubt that he'd opt out unless he's looking for a significant upgrade, and I don't think he should get one. I suspect that there will be the "one dumb owner" who wants to make a big splash (remember that term from the Omar days?) and bring in a two-time Cy Young winner. And if that happens, the team that gets deGrom will probably get a lot of headlines but not many wins.

[Gwreck]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: My point is if he wants Scherzer money, you have to let him go. I doubt that he'd opt out unless he's looking for a significant upgrade, and I don't think he should get one.

Why don't you think he should get an upgrade in salary?



(And do you mean in general, or from the Mets specifically?)

[Benjamin Grimm]

Because I think his best days are behind him.

[Frayed Knot]

He's opting out for more money of course.

But mainly it's for the extended time. This may be his last contract so he'd like to get as many total dollars as possible, iow, years at least as important as AAV.

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Because I think his best days are behind him.

I'm not so sure about that.

He's younger and with fewer miles on him than Scherzer, not to mention cleaner mechanics. I mean, sure, we likely won't see the likes of 2018-19 again but we may be collectively guilty here of recency bias; that his last three starts weren't vintage so this is what he now is. But even his great years had similar hiccups (remember him getting battered by the Twins?) which turned out to Not be the end of the world.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, Scherzer's best days are behind him too.



Sure, deGrom likely has some more outstanding stretches ahead of him. But if you commit to four or five years, I think the great starts will be outnumbered by the mediocre and, eventually, the bad.



My guess is that whoever signs deGrom will get about as much out of him as the Mets got from Pedro Martinez, but will be paying for a lot more.

[Edgy MD]

My best days are behind me, but there's still a meaningful value to what I have left.



Tylor Megill has virtually a whole career ahead of him, including what are likely to be his best days. I think most teams would prefer what Jacob deGrom has left to what Megill has left.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes, but is it worth $40 million per year? I wouldn't bet on it.

[Centerfield]

Frayed Knot wrote: He's opting out for more money of course. But mainly it's for the extended time. This may be his last contract so he'd like to get as many total dollars as possible, iow, years at least as important as AAV. Benjamin Grimm wrote: Because I think his best days are behind him. I'm not so sure about that. He's younger and with fewer miles on him than Scherzer, not to mention cleaner mechanics. I mean, sure, we likely won't see the likes of 2018-19 again but we may be collectively guilty here of recency bias; that his last three starts weren't vintage so this is what he now is. But even his great years had similar hiccups (remember him getting battered by the Twins?) which turned out to Not be the end of the world.

He was also coming off an injury, so you can understand why he might have run out of steam earlier. I guess that's a case both for and against deGrom.



If I had to make a guess, I guess I'd lean more toward him leaving than coming back, but neither would surprise me. He might be playing coy with Cohen and the media intentionally to milk every last dollar from him. He's certainly smart enough to do that.

[Edgy MD]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Yes, but is it worth $40 million per year? I wouldn't bet on it.

We don't actually know what the numbers are yet.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Yes, but is it worth $40 million per year? I wouldn't bet on it.

150%, absolutely zero doubt about it. A team with deGrom on it is better than a team without deGrom on. I don't care if he pitches 10 innings. Bit whoop, sign the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th best backup guys too. If they balk at maybe being the 6th guy in a rotation, tell every one they're third behind deGrom and Scherzer, don't worry about it. And then pay them like a third starter.





Anything else means there's a budget and then we've got big problems with this offseason.

[metsmarathon]

we should crowdsource an expected degrom deal. see how it compares to what he actually eventually gets.



me, i think he'll just opt out and take the QO.

[A Boy Named Seo]

we should crowdsource an expected degrom deal. see how it compares to what he actually eventually gets. me, i think he'll just opt out and take the QO.

I think *gulp* 2 years/$90M gets it done. And it'll be the Mets doing the doing.



deGrom's value in https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jacob-degrom/10954/stats?position=P#valuefWAR, for what it's worth:



2014 $27.0

2015 $38.9

2016 $23.4

2017 $33.2

2018 $72.3

2019 $55.5

2020 $20.8

2021 $38.9

2022 $17.5

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'll guess four years, $150 million from the Texas Rangers.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'll guess four years, $150 million from the Texas Rangers.

I like that guess. It would be very Texas Rangery, too.



Edit: I think JdG wants to get in the neighborhood or exceed Max's AAV of $43M, no?

[Benjamin Grimm]

That's what the rumors say, but that's just speculation. My prediction assumes that nobody will go that high for him.

[Gwreck]

Sure, there's some residual bad taste after the Atlanta game. And deGrom was only “good” not “utterly dominant” against San Diego.



But (1) is there another pitcher in the majors you'd rather have starting a playoff game? And (1a) is there any other free agent starting pitcher who could plausibly be an answer to #1?



I'd open with a bid of…$135M for 3 years with an opt-out after 2.

[Ceetar]

=Gwreck post_id=111464 time=1666038777 user_id=56]




I'd open with a bid of…$135M for 3 years with an opt-out after 2.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We know he can afford it, but he may not be willing to pay it. Cohen has definitely said that there's a limit to what he'll spend.