The Eckersley-Smoltz Option

[Edgy MD]

As I walk the dogs in the rain, i wonder what happens when Jacob deGrom returns from his four weeks of rest. Of course, I know the answer at some level, and that's that we won't know until perhaps three or more weeks after that, as deGrom cycles up to competitive status, by doing minor league starts at one or more level, and then gradually being stretched through abbreviated big league starts.



That's a best case scenario, and even if they get him restored to something like full capacity, it's still going to be with kid gloves. He won't see the fifth inning or beyond until ... mid-June? And it would be a stunning exception if he gets two outs into the seventh any time this season — a season which, lest it be overlooked, could well be his last as a Met.



What I'm getting at is that we have a Hall-of-Fame talent in our grasp, pitching at a staggeringly consistent Hall-of-Fame level even when not 100%, but frustratingly unable to stay on the field. He considers his goal to be beyond the Hall of Fame, but to reach inner-circle Hall of Fame status. His own words. Not mine



But reality is in front of us, and the reality is that his late arrival, injuries, kid gloves policies, bullpen failures, and offensive ineptitiude on the days he pitches have conspired him to put him behind the eight-ball — years behind the eight-ball. He may want to be an inner-circle Hall of Fame, but it would take a heckuva turn of fortune to achieve 200 wins, and even the idea of 100 wins currently feels like a hit-or-miss prospect. Fitty-fitty. I dunno.



But what I do know if you've got a starting pitcher who is pitching at an elite level, but only giving you 77 innings per season, you can maximize this by making him a closer. He's got the wicked fastball-slider package of a top closer, his ridiculously consistency could turn out to be a terrifying asset out of the pen, and his 77 innings might net him 45 saves per year rather than eight wins.



It's madness. It's insane. My fingers hate me for typing it. Managing to compiling totals is against my DNA. But the Mets' closer is also in the last year of his contract, and deGrom may well provide more chills over a longer time as a closer unleashed than as a starter in bubble wrap. And I've already just lived through the long slow death of David Wright's career, so I may be averse to seeing another Hall-of-Fame trajectory explode mid-flight.



I should be beaten up for even suggesting it, but up in Cooperstown, there are two relief pitchers that show it can work. It has to be something that can be talked about, right? And maybe instead of deGrom Day being something that happens every five days (if we're lucky) and always ends by the sixth inning, followed by three innings of agita, it can be something that can happen on any day, with your confidence growing from the sixth inning on, knowing that they won't deploy him until they gotta. And he gets to walk off the field smiling after shaking his catcher's hand, rather than sitting in the dugout, shitting his way through the last three innings, worrying about his efforts going for naught. Again.



And again, that's pretty much a best-case scenario.



I dunno. If it isn't time to talk about it, it may be soon.





[fimg=622]https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/04/Jacob-deGrom-celebrates-after-Fridays-Mets-win..jpg?quality=75&strip=all&w=1024[/fimg]

[MFS62]

We won't beat you up.

In fact, this mental gymnastics judge gives you a 10.0 score.



You get ten not only for writing performance but also a ten for degree of difficulty. We understand why your fingers had a hard time typing it.

And you get a third ten for originality. You have proposed something not mentioned here before.



Later

[Lefty Specialist]

An interesting idea, but they don't pay closers $35 million a year.



I'm beginning to think deGrom won't throw a pitch this season. His body does not seem to be able to handle the stress he puts on it, and every time it seems like it's something different that's breaking down.

[kcmets]

I think Jacob's days as a Met are numbered regardless of his 2022 or not.



If he reinvents himself as a closer, it will certainly not be in Flushing (or Corona)...

[roger_that]

Is closing a guarantee that he will avoid injury? Anything like a guarantee? Even a likelihood? Don't closers get injured, miss games, have their careers end?

[seawolf17]

Is it the stress of pitching, or the stress of throwing a lot of pitches in one day, or the stress of pitching too often? I have no idea.



Fact is, guys get hurt, and he's going to be 34 in a few weeks. I don't know what the answer is.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm afraid the answer is to hope that he opts out and then move on.

[Edgy MD]

Oh, yeah, I don't know what THE answer is, but this is AN answer that worked in the two cited cases.



Beyond that, the role of a starter gets smaller every day, with no risk reduction that I can see, so I'm not sure it's an established fact that the greater path to riches lies along that road.

[Centerfield]

Yall people are crazy. Pay the man a billion dollars and watch him win Cy Youngs into his 40s.

[Edgy MD]

That'd be nice.

[kcmets]

Is Jacob like even throwing a baseball yet or is he completely shut down?

[Edgy MD]

He was prescribed four weeks of rest, so I assume he doesn't get to start dialing until that magic number has been reached.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Centerfield post_id=89707 time=1650381357 user_id=65]
Yall people are crazy. Pay the man a billion dollars and watch him win Cy Youngs into his 40s.

[kcmets]

Edgy MD wrote: He was prescribed four weeks of rest, so I assume he doesn't get to start dialing until that magic number has been reached.

Right, found this on RotoWire or something...



"Jacob deGrom will undergo another MRI on April 25 to check the healing progress of his right shoulder."

[whippoorwill]

My guess is that when he returns he will immediate hurt again.



Im such an optimist.

[whippoorwill]

=Centerfield post_id=89707 time=1650381357 user_id=65]
Yall people are crazy. Pay the man a billion dollars and watch him win Cy Youngs into his 40s.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'm afraid the answer is to hope that he opts out and then move on.

Former 49ers Hall of Fame Head Coach Bill Walsh would famously and coldly trade away his stars right at the end of their peaks, even when it appeared that they still had something left in their tanks. He'd rather do that then to wait another year or two when the bottom inevitably fell out, like it does for everyone, and their trade value crashed. The baseball analogy would be trading "last piece of the puzzle" (groan) Gary Carter after the '86 season rather then keeping him for three more seasons when he killed the Mets. (but burnished his case for uni retirement with two crappy seasons and one season from Hell). Thank god for those crappy seasons. If Carter stayed for yet another two years, through 1991, and had yet another two crappy Mets seasons, his uni would've already been long retired and hed have a statue in front of the stadium. The worse he got, the more revered he got.

[batmagadanleadoff]

They wanna retire his Mets number because he's in the HOF. That makes about as much sense as retiring Carter's Mets number because of what Willie Stargell did with the Pirates.

[Edgy MD]

What do you think about trying to remake Jacob deGrom as a closer?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: What do you think about trying to remake Jacob deGrom as a closer?

I'm trying to fighte out your top post. Convert Jake to a closer mainly to help the Mets, or mainly to get Jake into the Hall?

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'm rooting for what's best for both Jake and the Mets and hoping that there's a lot of overlap there in the Venn. But no one really knows what's gonna happen and the range of possibilities are vast, from hes done as of now all the way to enshrinement in Cooperstown.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Guest

[Edgy MD]

Edgy MD wrote: What do you think about trying to remake Jacob deGrom as a closer? I'm trying to fighte out your top post. Convert Jake to a closer mainly to help the Mets, or mainly to get Jake into the Hall?

Well, the idea is hopefully to get the best career value out of him and effect both outcomes.

[smg58]

I'm not 100% opposed to the idea, but I don't think we're there yet.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Edgy MD wrote: What do you think about trying to remake Jacob deGrom as a closer? I'm trying to fighte out your top post. Convert Jake to a closer mainly to help the Mets, or mainly to get Jake into the Hall? Well, the idea is hopefully to get the best career value out of him and effect both outcomes.

See just above.

[seawolf17]

If I had the power to make the call, then I say he's a starter until he says he isn't. He's more than earned that.

[Fman99]

NO NO NO NO NO NO NO

[Edgy MD]

I like the nuance thought you've put into your argument, but I'm kind of having trouble trying to suss out on which side of the argument you're coming down.

[The Hot Corner]

I would prefer he remain a starter. I think his value is greater as a starter. I personally don't think his risk of injury is any less as a frequently used closer than it is as a starter pitching every 5th game (oh to dream). This last injury occurred while playing catch between appearances, so Jake doesn't have to throwing all out or even off a mound to get hurt. Truthfully, I'm not sure we should count on too many innings out of DeGrom, no matter how he is used. I have no doubt that whatever innings he pitches will be elite, top quality, but I think he is just too fragile to be counted on.



I sincerely hope he proves me wrong.

[Edgy MD]

The question is certainly not yet closed, but https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34129678/so far, data tend to suggest that the bullpen is a safer place to be.

Conclusions: Starting pitchers demonstrated almost two and a half times greater hazard of arm injury compared to relief pitchers. Subgroup analyses demonstrated that starters exhibited greater hazard of shoulder injury compared to relievers; but, no differences were observed for hazard of elbow injury. However, due to the wide confidence intervals, these subgroup analyses should be interpreted with caution. Clinicians may need to consider cumulative exposure and fatigue and how these factors relate to different pitching roles when assessing pitching arm injury risk.

[Edgy MD]

Waddaya think of my new idea — working out J.D. as a catcher?



The Clint Hurdle Option.