Life in the Passing Lane: Where Mets Rank in 2022

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Yeah, his pace is three wins in 126 games = 3.86 wins in 162 games. Maybe not the most likely outcome, but far less absurd than projecting a guy who hits two homers in his team's first three games to finish with 108 homers. But the logic is the same either way. It's what one might call an unsophisticated model, but that hopefully makes for exciting times if and when deGrom surpasses such cautious projections, hopefully sometime early next week.

deGrom's got three wins in 23 games played by the Mets. He's pitched good enough to easily win all five of his starts.The Mets have 36 games remaining this season. So deGrom's on pace to finish the season with eight wins. (He's pitching good enough to finish with at least a dozen wins). You've got him at three wins for every 126 Mets games played or one win every 42 Mets games played. That's how you get .8 wins for the rest of the season. I think that measure is absurd.



By several measures, he's pitching at an even better rate than last year, if that's even imaginable. But once again, it's 2018 all over again for deGrom: the Mets have scored a total of 12 runs combined in deGrom's five starts this season. He could easily be 5-0 with just a little more luck.



Anyways, the thing to do is to sit back and cherish his outings because we might never see a run of dominance like what deGrom's been doing these past two seasons (when he's healthy). This is a level of dominance never matched by any pitcher in the history of baseball. He's so dominant, so unhittable, that I'm kinda shocked whenever an opposing batter doesn't make an out.

[metsmarathon]

Jeez edgy, how's come you're not dynamically calculating the players rate stats and totals based on their amount of time on the active roster, current totals, and projected playing time going forward, mixed with an assessment of quality of opponents, weather, and injury probability, with a least-squared regression model to average out any outlierish performances.



I expect better.

[Fman99]

=metsmarathon post_id=105385 time=1661516405 user_id=83]
Jeez edgy, how's come you're not dynamically calculating the players rate stats and totals based on their amount of time on the active roster, current totals, and projected playing time going forward, mixed with an assessment of quality of opponents, weather, and injury probability, with a least-squared regression model to average out any outlierish performances.



I expect better.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=metsmarathon post_id=105385 time=1661516405 user_id=83]
Jeez edgy, how's come you're not dynamically calculating the players rate stats and totals based on their amount of time on the active roster, current totals, and projected playing time going forward, mixed with an assessment of quality of opponents, weather, and injury probability, with a least-squared regression model to average out any outlierish performances.



I expect better.

[metsmarathon]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=105393 time=1661528885 user_id=68]
=metsmarathon post_id=105385 time=1661516405 user_id=83]
Jeez edgy, how's come you're not dynamically calculating the players rate stats and totals based on their amount of time on the active roster, current totals, and projected playing time going forward, mixed with an assessment of quality of opponents, weather, and injury probability, with a least-squared regression model to average out any outlierish performances.



I expect better.

[Edgy MD]

Here's a healthier trend line for somebody else who has gone top ten.



Career Saves as a Met



1. John Franco: 276

2. Armando Benitez: 160

3. Jeurys Familia: 124

4. Jesse Orosco: 107

5. Billy Wagner: 101

Edwin Diaz Projected to End of Season: 100

6. Edwin Diaz: 92

7. Tug McGraw: 85

8. Roger McDowell: 84

9. Francisco Rodriguez: 83

10. Neil Allen: 69

11. Skip Lockwood: 65

=#0000BF]Edwin Diaz at Start of Season: 64

12. Braden Looper: 57

[batmagadanleadoff]

=metsmarathon post_id=105402 time=1661542453 user_id=83]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=105393 time=1661528885 user_id=68]
=metsmarathon post_id=105385 time=1661516405 user_id=83]
Jeez edgy, how's come you're not dynamically calculating the players rate stats and totals based on their amount of time on the active roster, current totals, and projected playing time going forward, mixed with an assessment of quality of opponents, weather, and injury probability, with a least-squared regression model to average out any outlierish performances.



I expect better.

[Edgy MD]

No, it's very much not like that.



I'm really sorry if this has you disappointed. But you're not, really, are you?

[metsmarathon]

Edgy, your projection system is crap too because it can't tell me how many homers Pete will hit before he dies, given his current yearly rate. Because you don't know how long he will live.



You suck and should feel badly about yourself.



There's a projection system called marcel. It's named after a monkey from a sitcom. It does a weighted average of the prior three seasons of a players performance to predict the subsequent season. It kinda works. Kinda doesn't. It actually works better than you'd guess.



Why do I bring it up?



Because while you may reject the numbers that it produces as unrealistic for a variety of reasons, it still does exactly what it says it does, and what it aims to do. Better projection systems are out there and used all the time. But Marcel's results are unassailable in that they simply turn a mathematical crank that is clearly presented.



Such is the same for “on pace for” season stats.



In fact, to use any sort of estimated future playing time would be to turn an objective projection system as edgy has, and turn it into something purely subjective, and therefore rife with flaws.



If you want to independently calculate Jacob degrom a rest of season stats, you're more than welcome to. Please post your assumptions so that we can tear them to shreds.

[Edgy MD]

Based on this season and the two previous seasons, Jacob deGrom projects to finish the season with 81.45 career victories.

[Edgy MD]

RBI by a Met in a Single Season



Pete Alonso Projected to End of Season:133.94

T1) Mike Piazza (1999): 124

T1) David Wright (2008): 124

T3) Robin Ventura (1999): 120

T3) Pete Alonso (2019): 120

T5) Bernard Gilkey (1996): 117

T5) Howard Johnson (1991): 117

T7) Carlos Beltran (2006): 116

T7) David Wright (2006): 116

9) Carlos Delgado (2008): 115

10) Carlos Delgado (2006): 114

11) Mike Piazza (2000): 113

T12) Todd Hundley (1996): 112

T12) Carlos Beltran (2007): 112

T12) Carlos Beltran (2008): 112

Francisco LIndor Projected to End of Season:108.43

T15) Darryl Strawberry (1990): 108

T15) Edgardo Alfonzo (1999): 108

17) David Wright (2007): 107

T18) Rusty Staub (1975): 105

T18) Gary Carter (1986): 105

T18) Pete Alonso (2022): 105



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



T58) Todd Hundley (1997): 86

T58) Dave Kingman (1976): 86

T58) George Foster (1984): 86

T58) Yoenis Céspedes (2016): 86

T62) Kevin McReyndolds (1989): 85

T62) Francisco Lindor (2022): 85

64) Robin Ventura (2000): 84



Rusty's 105 from 1975 was the record until 1990, and now it's tied for 18th, where Pete has joined him, hopefully briefly.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Well, the Mets cant even score two and a half runs a game for deGrom. So it's incredible that deGrom has any wins this season. By that measure, yeah, he might only win one more game the rest of the way.

[metsmarathon]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=105499 time=1661571844 user_id=68]
Well, the Mets cant even score two and a half runs a game for deGrom. So it's incredible that deGrom has any wins this season. By that measure, yeah, he might only win one more game the rest of the way.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=metsmarathon post_id=105510 time=1661608185 user_id=83]
=batmagadanleadoff post_id=105499 time=1661571844 user_id=68]
Well, the Mets cant even score two and a half runs a game for deGrom. So it's incredible that deGrom has any wins this season. By that measure, yeah, he might only win one more game the rest of the way.

[Willets Point]

Edgy MD wrote: RBI by a Met in a Single Season Pete Alonso Projected to End of Season:133.94

This does not seem to jibe with the people on here complaining that Alonso is having an off year.

[Benjamin Grimm]

He's having a terrific year. Just a recent slump.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Pete Alonso has quietly bumped Lee Mazzilli out of the all-time Top Twenty in Runs Batted In:

	1		David Wright		970
	2		Darryl Strawberry		733
	3		Mike Piazza		655
	4		Howard Johnson		629
	5		Ed Kranepool		614
	6		Carlos Beltran		559
	7		Edgardo Alfonzo		538
	8		Cleon Jones		521
			Jose Reyes		521
	10		Keith Hernandez		468
	11		Kevin McReynolds		456
	12		Daniel Murphy		402
	13		Rusty Staub		399
	14		Todd Hundley		397
	15		Michael Conforto		396
	16		Dave Kingman		389
	17		Lucas Duda		378
	18		George Foster		361
	19		Jerry Grote		357
	20		Pete Alonso		354
	21		Lee Mazzilli		353

And Keith Hernandez's spot in the Top Ten could be in jeopardy next season.



In addition to Mazzilli, Pete has passed the following players this year:

Gary Carter, Mookie Wilson, Carlos Delgado, John Milner, John Stearns, Ron Swoboda, Wayne Garrett, Bobby Bonilla, John Olerud, Cliff Floyd, Hubie Brooks, Jeff Kent, Tommie Agee, Robin Ventura, Rey Ordonez, Dave Magadan, Wilmer Flores

[Edgy MD]

National League Batting Average, 2022



1) Paul Goldschmidt (STL): .328

2) Freddie Freeman (LAD): .322

3) Jeff McNeil (NYM): .320

4) Trea Turner (LAD): .304

5) Manny Machado (SD): .303

6) Nolan Arenado (STL): .301

7) José Iglésias (COL): .300

8) Alec. Bohm (PHI): .295

9) Gavin Lux (LAD): .293

10) Starling Marte (NYM): .292

[Edgy MD]

I hope deGrom got to say hi to Cone and Matlack at the OTD game, because he just passed one and tied the other.



Career Wins Credited to Mets Pitchers



1) Tom Seaver: 198

2) Dwight Gooden: 157

3) Jerry Koosman: 140

4) Ron Darling: 99

5) Sid Fernandez: 98

6) Al Leiter: 95

Jacob deGrom Projected to End of Season: 82.87

T7) Jon Matlack: 82

T7) Jacob deGrom: 82

9) David Cone: 81

=#FF8000]Jacob deGrom at Start of Season: 77

10) Bobby Jones: 74

[Edgy MD]

Action developing in the batting race. Starling Marte (and José Iglesias, for that matter) are doing some improvement just by standing still.



But the greater action is at the top. Freddie Freeman has overtaken Paul Goldschmidt, and is even pulling away some. If Freeman can pass Goldie, then McNeil can catch them both.



National League Batting Average, 2022



1) Freddie Freeman (STL): .330

2) Paul Goldschmidt (LAD): .325

3) Jeff McNeil (NYM): .321

4) Trea Turner (LAD): .305

5) Manny Machado (SD): .301

6) José Iglésias (STL): .300

7) Nolan Arenado (COL): .298

8) Alec Bohm (PHI): .293

9) Starling Marte (NYM): .292

10) Nico Hoener (LAD): .291



With 20 games to go (21 for Goldschmidt), Freeman has the advantage of playing for a team far enough ahead in the standings that they can rest him liberally. On the other hand, he has a real good shot at 200 hits, for whatever that's worth, which provides motivation to get his swings in. Also, in 2022, resting guys in September isn't as easy as it used to be.



The advantage for McNeil is that he has played fewer games and made fewer trips to the plate than the two guys ahead of him, so he gets a little more uptick for any hits he gets going forward. Still, he has to get them. Assuming four at-bats per game for each of the top three, McNeil needs one more hit than Goldschmidt to catch him, and five more hits than Freeman.



Doable.

[Edgy MD]

Mid-game, McNeil has pulled into a virtual tie with Goldschmidt at .324, with but Goldie currently edging by the skin of his teeth at .3240 to .3239.



Dodgers haven't started yet in Arizona.

[Edgy MD]

Goldie drops to .3234! A half point behind!

[Edgy MD]

Freddy Freeman finished his evening with a 1-for-4, while Paul Goldschmidt took an 0-for-4 collar and our own Jeff McNeil had a 2-for-4 night.



Freeman's one hit was a homerun, while McNeil's most consequential trip to the plate involved grounding into a double-play while first-pitch swinging, so yeah, Freeman win's the night, but McNesbit gains meaningfully in the batting average race, pulling ahead of Goldschmidt and bearing down on Freddie.



Where Mets Rank Staff is projecting that McNeil now needs four more hits than Freeman over the remaining 19 games to beat him for the batting average crown.



👑

⚾️



National League Batting Average, 2022



1) Freddie Freeman (STL): .329

2) Jeff McNeil (NYM): .323

3) Paul Goldschmidt (LAD): .322

4) Trea Turner (LAD): .305

5) Manny Machado (SD): .302

6) José Iglésias (STL): .300

7) Nolan Arenado (COL): .299

8) Alec Bohm (PHI): .293

9) Starling Marte (NYM): .292

10) Nico Hoener (LAD): .291



Starling Marte, for what it's worth, needs about 19 hits more than Freeman going forward to take the batting title.

[MFS62]

Have the Mets ever had two batters in the top 10 in batting average in the same year?

If so, who?



Later

[Edgy MD]

I'm sure it's happened several times, but most recently, in 2020, Michael Conforto and Dom Smith were both in the top 10.

[Benjamin Grimm]

2022 marks the 12th time that the Mets have won 90 or more games in a season.



Most team wins in a season



1. 108 (1986)

2. 100 (1969, 1988)

4. 98 (1985)

5. 97 (1999, 2006)

7. 94 (2000)

8. 92 (1987)

9. 91 (1990)

10. 90 (1984, 2015, 2022)

[stevejrogers]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: 2022 marks the 12th time that the Mets have won 90 or more games in a season. Most team wins in a season 1. 108 (1986) 2. 100 (1969, 1988) 4. 98 (1985) 5. 97 (1999, 2006) 7. 94 (2000) 8. 92 (1987) 9. 91 (1990) 10. 90 (1984, 2015, 2022)

All but 4 made the postseason. If the WC existed back in the day, I'd imagine 2 to all of of those years would have been postseason appearing years. Easily the best era in team history.

[Edgy MD]

McNeil a had sweet start today, singing and doubling in his first two trips to the plate, but then, instead of cashing in, pumped more money in the slots, finishing at 2-for-5. And then Goldschmidt went and doubled and walked in this three trips, finishing the evening two-ish points ahead of Def Jeff.



With Freddie Freeman's Dodgers inactive last night, they have a more compressed schedule going forward, still having 20 games while the Cards and Mets have 18 and 17, respectively.



It's that tight. McNeil, according to current estimates, needs one more hit than Goldschmidt to finish ahed of him, and two more hits than Freeman.



Startling Marte moved up the easy way, staying in the clubhouse while Alec Bohm took a collar, and so is now seventh in the league in batting average.



National League Batting Average, 2022



1) Freddie Freeman (STL): .329

2) Paul Goldschmidt (LAD): .324

3) Jeff McNeil (NYM): .322

4) Trea Turner (LAD): .305

5) José Iglésias (STL): .300

6) Nolan Arenado (COL): .298

7) Manny Machado (SD): .297

8) Starling Marte (NYM): .292

9) Nico Hoener (LAD): .291

10) Alec Bohm (PHI): .289

[Benjamin Grimm]

I didn't notice that Jeff McNeil was singing as he hit that double. That seems a bit our of character.

[Edgy MD]

It was a pretty loose mood after the Mets took the early lead. At one point, Luis Guillorme brought out a harmonica and played a few licks in the on-deck circle.