What about Javy?

[Fman99]

Sign Baez for 4-5 years, not ten.



Cano will be back in 2022. They won't cut bait on him without first at least seeing what he has in the tank after a year off. I assume he gets on newer better juice and hits like always.

[Ceetar]

except for like, a slow start to 2019 he's been AT LEAST 12% better than average every season since 2008!, and usually much better. And while he hasn't been facing major league hitting, he HAS been playing baseball. He's not going to get in because #bbwaa and missing time here, but his bat is HoF caliber. Maybe it'll have dropped off, but damn, I need to see it drop off before I throw more money after Javy.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

=Ceetar post_id=77820 time=1631706615 user_id=102]
except for like, a slow start to 2019 he's been AT LEAST 12% better than average every season since 2008!, and usually much better. And while he hasn't been facing major league hitting, he HAS been playing baseball. He's not going to get in because #bbwaa and missing time here, but his bat is HoF caliber. Maybe it'll have dropped off, but damn, I need to see it drop off before I throw more money after Javy.

[Ceetar]

please, they're all juicing.



Was he juicing in Seattle in 2018 when he hit? Did it help him jump is BB%? Can you link ANY study that even comes close to approximating the value of steroids or conclusively defines the (positive) impact they have? Until Cano shows he can't hit, I'm gonna assume he can hit. I don't have the actual numbers on this, but it's probably pretty rare for a hitter that established go from solidly above average to below replacement level in two years.



Whether or not Cohen bothers to use his wealth to actually fix this team, they've already spent the money on Cano. Even the 600k they'd spend on that roster spot if they cut Cano is more. and, it's not about money, it's about maximizing the value of the guys on the roster. I like Guillorme, but damn, the chances that Cano doesn't outhit Guillorme is almost nil. Hell, the value of PRETENDING to play Cano through Spring Training 2022, just for trading leverage, is probably more than the 25th backup IF guy you'd have there instead.



The last time YOU saw his bat, which was barely more than a year ago. Again, DR ball is not major league ball, but he hasn't been sitting on the couch.



btw Cano put up 0.8 Def value according to Fangraphs in 2020, in those 49 games. Taez only has 33 games with the Mets, he's at 0.6. Guillorme, Almora Jr, Villar, McNeil, Conforto, Smith, and Alonso have all put up less Def value than Cano this season. It's ALONSO who should be the DH next year, and they should find someone with a glove. Seems like that might NOT be Dominic Smith.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

=Ceetar post_id=77824 time=1631711163 user_id=102]
please, they're all juicing.

[MFS62]

Can you link ANY study that even comes close to approximating the value of steroids or conclusively defines the (positive) impact they have?

I can't cite a study, but one example comes to mind.

Paul O'Neill had 2618 AB in Cincy and was a .259 hitter.

He came to the MFYs, where many players and coaches were involved in Steroids in those years, and hit .303 in 4700 AB.

The one year jump? .246 in 1992 (Cincy) to .311 in 1993 (NY) at age 30.

And when he came to the team, he exhibited the acne and rage associated with taking Steroids that he had not been known for while in Cincy, so it is not a stretch to think his improvement was steroid assisted.



Yes, one example does not make a study or prove anything.



I'm sure there must be SABR folks who can look into improvement of other players coming to those rumored "hotbeds of steroids" like the MFY were in those days.



Later

[Ceetar]

but you wouldn't be able to isolate out the noise and randomness of year to year changes anyway.



And people take all sorts of things that have no benefit, or only a perceived benefit, or a placebo effect. It's not like "take shot, be able to identify sliders 10% more accurately!" It's also an arbitrary list. Would Cano have gotten the same benefit from taking something over the counter?



Lacking convincing evidence that anything he did was inflating his ability to such a degree that he's basically me in 2022, there's zero reason not to have him on the roster at least to start. Oh no, he took a drug from an arbitrary list of banned substances. It's all just PR nonsense. I don't know why anyone cares about that. Can he help the team win? Let's find out.

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Ceetar post_id=77824 time=1631711163 user_id=102]
it's probably pretty rare for a hitter that established go from solidly above average to below replacement level in two years.

Edited September 15, 2021 by Guest

[MFS62]

but you wouldn't be able to isolate out the noise and randomness of year to year changes anyway. And people take all sorts of things that have no benefit, or only a perceived benefit, or a placebo effect. It's not like "take shot, be able to identify sliders 10% more accurately!"

Actually, that is exactly the effect of the BALCO steroid cream Barry Bonds used.

When the manufacturers and Barry were interviewed (when they were considering whether to ban it), Barry stated that after using the cream, his eyesight improved and he was better able to pick up the rotation of the ball. He also said his improved eyesight allowed him to judge balls/strikes better. (I also heard a bio-chemist confirm that one of the ingredients in BALCO was proven to improve visual acuity in a radio interview around that time.)

His post-BALCO OBP/ walk rates are testimony to that improvement.



Later

Edited September 15, 2021 by Guest

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

but you wouldn't be able to isolate out the noise and randomness of year to year changes anyway. And people take all sorts of things that have no benefit, or only a perceived benefit, or a placebo effect. It's not like "take shot, be able to identify sliders 10% more accurately!" It's also an arbitrary list. Would Cano have gotten the same benefit from taking something over the counter? Lacking convincing evidence that anything he did was inflating his ability to such a degree that he's basically me in 2022, there's zero reason not to have him on the roster at least to start. Oh no, he took a drug from an arbitrary list of banned substances. It's all just PR nonsense. I don't know why anyone cares about that. Can he help the team win? Let's find out.

I'm not sure I'm following. Are actually saying the banned substance list of performance-enhancing drugs was created arbitrarily, and that these drugs have no real effect on a player's abilities, other than giving them more confidence?

[Edgy MD]

I can't speak to "that established" vs. "replacement level." That's too fuzzy. But performers fall off the table all the time. It's actually not rare at all. Especially if they get hurt, get suspended, or age catches up with them.

[whippoorwill]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: To go along with the McSquirrel thread, what about Javy? Do we think he'll be back in 2022? For a while there I was pretty certain the answer was no, but no I'm not so sure. Further complicating things is that we don't even know who will be making the decision.

Well he doesn't seem to like it here...

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: I can't speak to "that established" vs. "replacement level." That's too fuzzy. But performers fall off the table all the time. It's actually not rare at all. Especially if they get hurt, get suspended, or age catches up with them.

it's not though. Literally "guys with enough WAR to be potential HoF" is a pretty high bar. And replacement level is literally a 0 WAR. not fuzzy.





and yes, the list of banned substances is mostly arbitrary. "If players are taking it and doing well, and its' is not like, an FDA approved product, they'll consider banning it. Unless you get a prescription and a doctor's note. (for some of them) This is certainly a fuzzy area, but it's pretty clear the idea has always been to project the idea that baseball is clean, rather than to actually regulate PED use.



Which is a fuzzy area anyway! LIke, say Bond's cream really did improve eyesight (feel like in 20 years something like that would've been distilled down and on the shelves at Walgreens). Is that really a bad thing? There are players and talking heads hot taking that we had to use grip stuff to save the batters lives, so why should something that improves eyesight be banned? Why is that on the other side of the line, the line that means we have to hate a guy and brand him a cheater and always assume all success is a result of that?





Batmags mentioned Carter, Carter only had one year at or below re placement level, '89, his last year with the Mets, in only 166 PA. -0.1 fWAR. (absolutely didn't hit that year) but the next two years he weas an above average hitter. He never sunk to replacement level, even as a 38 year old catcher. Catcher. Cano can almost certainly hack it as, at worst, a 2B/DH semi-full time player better than the replacement player the Mets would use his spot for.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Carter didn't sink to replacement level but he was done as an impact player. He sucked after '86. and with hindsight, the Mets would have been better off if Carter retired or was traded after '86. His OPS+'s with the Mets after '86, in chronological order, were 83, 93 and 51. He wasn't gonna make any more all-star teams unless he was gonna be selected on what he once was with the Expos. Which is like 80% of the case for retiring his Mets uni: what he did with the Expos.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Ceetar's loyal defense of Cano is one of the weirdest things on this forum to me. I agree that if the Mets have to pay for the guy regardless, it makes sense to see what they have, but they'd be wise to not bypass other second base options thinking that a 38-year old, twice busted cheater might be the guy at second, or even as a reliable DH. As the Mets undeniably have a character problem as an organization, I'd love it if they moved on from him regardless. BTW - his time raking in the Dominican League amounted to https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cano--001rob6 games and 25 plate appearances.

[Ceetar]

that was just the winter league, he played some non-tracked leagues too if I recall.



I just don't get extreme weightlifting as either particularly impactful on what he's done as a player nor as particularly detrimental to his character. But that's mostly an aside to the idea of just cutting him for the sake of cutting him. Also we still have McNeil. And J.D. Davis, and Alonso. And Lindor, and Smith. Smith, and to a lesser extent McNeil, may not be real 'answers' in the infield, but with two big holes in the outfield and a problem at catcher, it seems like expending effort on 2B might be wasted, even with a DH.



I WOULD like them to consider bringing back Villar though, who's been real useful. I don't know if he'll be looking for a starting job or not.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Ceets going all Sean Spicer with “extreme weightlifting” lol

[Ceetar]

I mean, that's what the drug he was caught for does. it's a bodybuilding one. Doesn't even sound like a good baseball one, and reading up on it made me wonder if it contributed to his injuries.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Personally, I think the whole steroid ban is ridiculous. Players should be allowed to take whatever the hell they wanna take. Because what, having a physical natural genetic advantage is fair? Who are the fucked up moralists and ethicists who wrote those rules? Or to put it another way for the savage medieval barbarians in our society, its supposed to be fair when God gives Deion Sanders a body from Mount Olympus but almost everybody else gets bodies fit for an insurance salesman? That's fair?



What the fuck is fair about that?

Edited September 15, 2021 by Guest

[smg58]

I'm not for justifying overpaying to get Baez by overpaying to extend him. He had his one genuinely good offensive year under the tutelage of the hitting coach we fired in May. We are not going to get that from him. And as others have pointed out, his defense value is likely to vanish by the end of his contract. And it would take another fifteen home runs before the end of the season before I forget the thumbs down. Pass.

[nymr83]

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=77841 time=1631719685 user_id=68]
=Ceetar post_id=77824 time=1631711163 user_id=102]
it's probably pretty rare for a hitter that established go from solidly above average to below replacement level in two years.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Yes I think the way things are going Keith'll get in there based on combined service, but I've long felt the best way to have done this was to retire 86 for the whole lot of them and not walk around feeling like you dissed the wrong guy

[batmagadanleadoff]

=nymr83 post_id=77893 time=1631740433 user_id=54]
The issues with Strawberry are .... [his] stint with the hated yankees ....

[batmagadanleadoff]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Yes I think the way things are going Keith'll get in there....

Keith'll end up in Cooperstown. He's the best fielding first baseman in baseball history. His defense was so revolutionary, so far ahead of its time, that watching Keith play first base for the first time must've been as eye-opening as seeing Jimi Hendrix play mod-England in 1966. If Keith never existed and came up today for the first time ever as a young twentysomething first baseman, he'd still be ahead of his time. His defense alone should've gotten him more than halfway into Cooperstown. Bill Mazeroski, ferchrissakes, is a HOF'er.

[Centerfield]

Has a higher career OPS than Derek Jeter.

[Ceetar]

and his drugs weren't performance enhancing!

[kcmets]

=Ceetar post_id=77949 time=1631794624 user_id=102]and his drugs weren't performance enhancing!

[Ceetar]

=kcmets post_id=77950 time=1631795472 user_id=53]
=Ceetar post_id=77949 time=1631794624 user_id=102]and his drugs weren't performance enhancing!

[kcmets]

The grumpiness of this room is astounding sometimes.



Cocaine is most certainly performance enhancing. Until you need more. And then

more. And then more. I'm not starting a Friday IGT, I lost on Wednesday. It was a joke,

since I took so much batmag shit yesterday.

[Methead]

=Centerfield post_id=77947 time=1631794289 user_id=65]
Has a higher career OPS than Derek Jeter.