Big Month for Brodie

[Centerfield]

So now with the holidays past us, it's make or break time for Brodie. I think during this month we find out if he'll be successful in getting the Wilpons to back up that big talk from a few weeks ago. Or if this was just a bunch of smoke and mirrors but ultimately resulting in the same type of offseason we've seen out of the Wilpons.



On twitter, Andy Martino listed a few targets. Justin Wilson, Adam Warren, Asdrubal and Marwin Gonzalez.



Even those that liked the Cano trade largely qualified it with "Well let's see what else they do this offseason." You'd have to think if that's the haul, we can write that trade off as crap.



I don't know. I may be crazy but I feel like Brodie has it in him to get the Wilpons to open it up. It should be an interesting month.

[Fman99]

Assuming Bryce & Machado are going elsewhere, what's the best case scenario for him? Marwyn + bullpen help + Pollock?

[batmagadanleadoff]

=Fman99 post_id=328 time=1546455975 user_id=86]
Assuming Bryce & Machado are going elsewhere....

[LWFS]

I would take Marwin, Asdrubal and a better class of bullpen arm (Ottovino, e.g.) in lieu of a "big name" like Machado or Harper or Pollock.

[Vic Sage]

Here's a Harper proposal that I saw that sounds interesting:

A 10year/$320 deal that has an opt-out clause for Harper after the third season. Additionally, after the fifth year, the Mets could terminate the contract if Harper failed to win the MVP Award in the first five seasons of the deal. Essentially, this makes it a three-year deal. So, how much would you have to give Harper to make signing for three seasons worthwhile? Further complicating things is that the Mets would prefer to backload the deal to take advantage of when Yoenis Cespedes' deal comes off the books following the 2020 season. Here's one way it could shake out, given the opt-outs after year three and year five: 2019 – $25 2020 – $32 2021 – $43 2022 – $45 2023 – $45 2024 – $30 2025 – $30 2026 – $25 2027 – $25 2028 – $20 So, while the headlines would brand it 10/$320, which would be a higher average annual value than Stanton's 13/$325, it would most likely be a 3/$100 deal with the ability to become a free agent again for his age 29 season when he should still be able to command top dollar with a multi-year deal. There's at least some pull for Harper to come back, as he would still have 7/$220 remaining, with the bulk of that actually being front loaded.

Currently, the Mets are still looking at about $150m payroll for this season, which is around where we've been. But it looks like they will recoup 75% of Cespedes contract this year, so adding Harper would be a wash for 2019. So they absolutely could do it, financially.



Would they? No, and that's what is so frustrating. Not that I think Harper is necessarily the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Frankly, he's had 1 great year (2015) out of 7 to date, with only 2 seasons of 5+ WAR. But he's entering his prime and he's a good bet over the next 5 years to give somebody a bunch of 5+WAR seasons. Can he get to 10WAR? He's done it once; he could do it again. He's also an asshole who i would hate to root for, but i'd find a way to do it, i suppose. But the point is moot because Wilpons. So once again, we're going to go halfway in and try to win at the wholesale price. The Wilpons never pay retail prices.

[A Boy Named Seo]

The Cespedes thing is really bugging me. DiComo yesterday quoted Omar in a tweet which basically said the Mets aren't expecting anything from him this year. Harper is such a good fit, it's annoying. I doubt he would agree to a contract that let the Mets opt out after 5, but a front-loaded deal with opt-outs for him would be a great way to tackle this.

[MFS62]

I just got an email from mets.com titled "Start the year off right", which was about buying tickets for the upcoming season.

My first thought was, "you first. Do something meaningful."



Later

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

My first impression is that the Mets' MVP opt-out seems like something the biggest free agent on the market wouldn't agree to.



But I kind of like the idea of Harper on the Mets.



Separate of that I've convinced myself they need Pollock. I've become very skeptical of Lagares, with the injury and all.

[metsmarathon]

yeah, i'm coming to the conclusion that the mets need to be all-in on pollock, unless they accidentally decide to go out and get harper instead. which i would be a-ok with, y'know.



i'm leery of big ass contracts, and of harper. but i think he might be just what this team needs. and he's young enough that the downside of the contract is likely going to be farther off into the future.

[Vic Sage]

You're skeptical of Lagares because of his injury history, so you want... Pollack?

[smg58]

I can't fathom anybody (Boras least of all) agreeing to a deal that gets voided if his client doesn't win the MVP.



It's every bit as naive to assume that we are getting the maximum amount of money back from Cespedes' insurance policy as it is to assume he will be our everyday left fielder from the middle of May on. As of now he is still slated to resume baseball activities other than running next month, and he certainly won't miss the whole season if he stays on that schedule. We can neither count on him nor on the insurance money being there, which makes it impossible to assume anything.



So Harper has two 5+WAR seasons out of seven (only one going by Fangraphs), and that makes him a good bet, at the money we're talking about, to give his new team a bunch of 5+WAR seasons? I'm not buying that at all. He's an excellent bet to be the overall player he's been up till now, which would justify an AAV in the upper 20s for seven or eight years. But he's already turned down a bigger offer than that.



Having said that, we're about 9 or 10 million behind last year's payroll (including half of wright's contract). I'd take $10M over last year as progress, even if I think we still could/should do better. I'd take $20M over as getting serious. I'd take breaking even or worse as a major disappointment.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Vic Sage wrote: You're skeptical of Lagares because of his injury history, so you want... Pollack?

Yes. I know. But Pollack at least can contribute with the stick if he's healthy whereas with Lagares so much of his value is wrapped up in his ability to go get it and his hitting has always been iffy

[A Boy Named Seo]

I can't fathom anybody (Boras least of all) agreeing to a deal that gets voided if his client doesn't win the MVP. It's every bit as naive to assume that we are getting the maximum amount of money back from Cespedes' insurance policy as it is to assume he will be our everyday left fielder from the middle of May on. As of now he is still slated to resume baseball activities other than running next month, and he certainly won't miss the whole season if he stays on that schedule. We can neither count on him nor on the insurance money being there, which makes it impossible to assume anything.

I'm getting the vibe that the Cespedes schedule is optimistic, to say the least.

[Edgy MD]

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Vic Sage wrote: You're skeptical of Lagares because of his injury history, so you want... Pollack? Yes. I know. But Pollack at least can contribute with the stick if he's healthy whereas with Lagares so much of his value is wrapped up in his ability to go get it and his hitting has always been iffy

I guess Pollack and Lagares beats Pollack or Lagares. The Mets don't really have a fourth or fifth outfielder right now, at least, not on the 40-man roster.

[Centerfield]

I don't get the love for Marwin Gonzalez at all. The guy is 30 years old, and has exactly 1 good season. Last year he put up a .733 OPS, which was right around his career average of .737. I get that he's versatile. But I feel like TJ Rivera could give us an OPS in the .730's.



If he weren't from Houston would anyone be talking about him?



Getting back to Brodie, I feel like he's painted himself into a corner. Jeff too.



If they don't fully commit to winning this year, they're going to get panned over it. Maybe they don't care. I don't know. But I feel like if they want to be able to show their face in public, they need to do a hell of a lot more than just bring in Adam Jones and some no name lefty.

[Guest 41Forever]

Linking something completely out of the player's control -- like being voted to an award -- to such a significant point in a contract doesn't seem fair.



If the award was a statistical absolute -- like a triple crown -- that's one thing. But MVPs are voted on by writers. And there have been plenty of controversies. Heck, there's an annual debate of what an MVP is actually supposed to be awarded for. You have writers who say they won't vote for a guy who is not on a team in contention, guys who refuse to vote for pitchers and so on. I think there are some publications that forbid their wirters from voting on such things once they started to be linked to contract incentives, saying they didn't want to play a role in the people they cover getting more money.

[ashie62]

Harper 10/300 Rinse and repeat, do it

[Vic Sage]

he already turned that down from Washington; why would he accept it somewhere else?

[Edgy MD]

Because the Mets are going to rinse and repeat, which comes to 20 years, $600 million.

[metsmarathon]

Vic Sage wrote: he already turned that down from Washington; why would he accept it somewhere else?

because it may not still be on washington's table anymore.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't see it there.



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[A Boy Named Seo]

"The internet" said today that the Nats upped their initial offer. His cumulative fWAR value over the first 7 seasons of his career is $235.6M so far, an average of $33.6M of value per year. Would you multiply that number by 10 and offer him a 10-year/$336M contract? I think I would. This is his age 26 season, so you'd likely get 7 really good/great years from this dude. His 9.3 WAR MVP season alone was worth $74.7M.

[Frayed Knot]

Vic Sage wrote: he already turned that down from Washington; why would he accept it somewhere else? because it may not still be on washington's table anymore.

Harper and the Nats reportedly had a lengthy meeting(s?) over the New Year weekend so negotiations between those two certainly isn't off the table and you don't figure that Rizzo and/or the owners called him & Boras back to the table in order to roll out their lesser offer.

[Centerfield]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: "The internet" said today that the Nats upped their initial offer. His cumulative fWAR value over the first 7 seasons of his career is $235.6M so far, an average of $33.6M of value per year. Would you multiply that number by 10 and offer him a 10-year/$336M contract? I think I would. This is his age 26 season, so you'd likely get 7 really good/great years from this dude. His 9.3 WAR MVP season alone was worth $74.7M.

I would too. And then I'd sign Britton and another back end starter.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: Vic Sage wrote: he already turned that down from Washington; why would he accept it somewhere else? because it may not still be on washington's table anymore. Harper and the Nats reportedly had a lengthy meeting(s?) over the New Year weekend so negotiations between those two certainly isn't off the table and you don't figure that Rizzo and/or the owners called him & Boras back to the table in order to roll out their lesser offer.

https://www.mlb.com/news/bryce-harper-rumors/c-297610378?tid=282421090MLB.com -- The Nationals' supposed final offer to Harper -- the 10-year, $300 million deal they put on the table at the beginning of the offseason -- might not be so final at all.

A source told MLB Network Radio analyst and former general manager Jim Bowden that Washington's most recent offer to their longtime superstar outfielder wasn't just more than $300 million, it was "much more."

[ashie62]

Harper is spending quite a bit of time talking to the Nats

[Edgy MD]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: "The internet" said today that the Nats upped their initial offer. His cumulative fWAR value over the first 7 seasons of his career is $235.6M so far, an average of $33.6M of value per year. Would you multiply that number by 10 and offer him a 10-year/$336M contract? I think I would. This is his age 26 season, so you'd likely get 7 really good/great years from this dude. His 9.3 WAR MVP season alone was worth $74.7M.

I have some caveats there. Firstly, his MVP season is now four years in the rear view, and he's been more good than great since then.



Secondly, even in that year, there was some question about his real-world, in-game productivity (relatively, anyhow). While he led the league handily in fWAR, amassing 9.3, a full two more than Joey Votto's 7.3 in second place, he was second in WPA with 6.16, more than one below first pace Anthony Rizzo, and over three below where his fWAR suggested he should have been.



And this pattern has continued throughout his career, where his 30.7 fWAR stands beside a career 21.24 WPA.



That could represent team's refusal to pitch to him with runners on base, or perhaps it suggests a particular vulnerability to late-inning lefty specialists.



Obviously, whether he has singlehandedly won 30.7 games for his team or 21.24 or something in between, it's still a lot.



I'm not sure what to do with that disparity. but I wouldn't ignore it.

[The Hot Corner]

I don't think we will need to worry about Harper's production in the future, since it appears the Mets really aren't players in his free agency market. The only way it will effect the Mets, is as an opponent and his production against us, particularly if he signs and remains within the division.

[LWFS]

Guys! It's all FINE! WE JUST GOT KEON!!1!11!

[Centerfield]

Wilpon: this is ridiculous. We can't win with Lagares as our centerfielder! Brodie! Get me a righty swinging all glove no hit guy! Preferably one that can't play a full season!