So, let me get this straight. Pittsburgh is five games ahead of Cincinnati, but Cincinnati is more likely to win the wild card. Arizona is only 3 1/2 games behind Atlanta and has no other team to catch, but has a less than 1-in-20 chance of winning the wild card. I'm sure the calculations consider things like schedule, player quality, run differentials, etc., etc., etc. in addition to the win-loss record. And, of course, they should. But it's going to take some convincing to make me believe there isn't a healthy dose of bullshit included in their math as well. OE - some of the Arizona story is probably that if they catch the Braves, they've got a good chance of catching the Giants and making the playoffs as a division winner. But that doesn't explain the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati difference.