NL East Enemies: 2017 Washington Nationals

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Danny Espinosa blew off an appearance at the Nats' Winter Caravan this week in seeming protest of a reduced role stemming from the Eaton to CF/Turner to SS switch and got abruptly traded to the Angels for 2 suspects.

That's not a huge loss I suppose, but 24 fewer homers.

[Edgy MD]

I guess that's what you get for having a winter caravan.

Sometimes cracking down on malcontents just produces more malcontentia.

[Frayed Knot]

Espinosa was likely to be dealt away whether he showed up to the caravan or not, if not before the Adam Eaton trade which moves Trea Turner to the infield then certainly after it.
But, yeah, publicly pouting while coming off a year where you hit .209 and K'd in 1/3 of your ABs is rarely a good move.

But his limitations aside, he filled a variety of roles on that team for seven straight seasons - getting 500+ ABs in three of them and over 300 in two others -- while bringing defense, power, versatility and a decent walk rate which at least partially offset the low BA, making his removal not quite an addition by subtraction thing although I'm sure that's how it'll be sold among some Nats fans. Not sure who now becomes their main backup for an infield where Murphy & Zimmerman are over 30 and Zim & Rendon both seem to be frequent flyers on the DL express.

[Edgy MD]

As of now, it's Wilmer Difo, who is a difo Wilmer from our infield backup.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Jay Bruce is obv more valuable than Espinosa, but the Nats return in this trade seems pretty paltry. How much more can the Mets realistically expect to get for Bruce ya think?

[Edgy MD]

Well, Espinosa comes about $9 million cheaper, but I can't fault the Mets for holding out. If all they get is two prospects, I suppose they're going to hold out for the right two.

Sandy's certainly gone to camp without the roster set before, so we'll see where they go from here.

[Centerfield]

Fangraphs picks the Nats to win the NL East. The Mets finish second with 84 wins. Fail to qualify for either WC, which go to the Giants and St. Louis.

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#NL-E

Mark Simon says most of the difference comes not from a disparity in talent, but more from the uncertainty arising from the injuries.

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/124925/sorry-mets-fans-nationals-are-currently-considerably-better

Which I guess is good, but he still manages to sound kinda like a dick.

Did we know about Travis's shoulder issue? Was that really the problem? I hadn't heard that.

[TransMonk]

Luckily, divisions are not won and lost in December.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah. I imagine the Mets were looking like heavy favorites 11 months ago.

[Centerfield]

Plus I'm not sure that the Nats are without their question marks. Daniel Murphy OPS'ed at .985 last year while spending nearly his entire career in the mid. 700's. Are we sure that he can match that production again in 2017? There are all sorts of guys who had that one standout year and never matched it again.

Trea Turner looked like a star with a .937 OPS over 73 games. But he could Conforto in his sophomore year. Plus, his performance in Washington far outpaced what he had done through the minors. So there could be some regression. (Though he really looks like he'll be a helluva player.)

[Gwreck]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Yeah. I imagine the Mets were looking like heavy favorites 11 months ago.

I don't think we were. And not just because Cespedes wasn't re-signed yet at that point.

The Mets need more hitting even with Cespedes re-signed. Same thing that was true last off-season is true this off-season.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: Plus I'm not sure that the Nats are without their question marks. Daniel Murphy OPS'ed at .985 last year while spending nearly his entire career in the mid. 700's. Are we sure that he can match that production again in 2017? There are all sorts of guys who had that one standout year and never matched it again.

While I don't know what's in store for Murphy, and maintain a healthy respect for the total unpredictability of everything, everything, I'm also convinced that Murphy is one of those rare players who changed his game in mid-career. I think he's no longer that singles and doubles hitter spraying the ball over the field for all but the last half season of his Mets stint. And so, I wouldn't consider the old Murphy as the baseline by which to gauge expectations. I think Murphy's a stud now, one of baseball's most dangerous hitters. And I think that that Murphy's here to stay. If his productivity goes down, it'll be because of the inevitable wear and tear and injuries and aging --- not a reversion to the original Murph.

[Centerfield]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Centerfield wrote: Plus I'm not sure that the Nats are without their question marks. Daniel Murphy OPS'ed at .985 last year while spending nearly his entire career in the mid. 700's. Are we sure that he can match that production again in 2017? There are all sorts of guys who had that one standout year and never matched it again. While I don't know what's in store for Murphy, and maintain a healthy respect for the total unpredictability of everything, everything, I'm also convinced that Murphy is one of those rare players who changed his game in mid-career. I think he's no longer that singles and doubles hitter spraying the ball over the field for all but the last half season of his Mets stint. And so, I wouldn't consider the old Murphy as the baseline by which to gauge expectations. I think Murphy's a stud now, one of baseball's most dangerous hitters. And I think that that Murphy's here to stay. If his productivity goes down, it'll be because of the inevitable wear and tear and injuries and aging --- not a reversion to the original Murph.

Is that just a hunch or are you basing that on anything specific? Not to say you're wrong, I just don't have the depth of understanding to make a prediction on this one way or the other.

[Lefty Specialist]

The 'new Murph' had already started to emerge in the second half of 2015. So I think it's real and sustainable.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: Centerfield wrote: Plus I'm not sure that the Nats are without their question marks. Daniel Murphy OPS'ed at .985 last year while spending nearly his entire career in the mid. 700's. Are we sure that he can match that production again in 2017? There are all sorts of guys who had that one standout year and never matched it again. While I don't know what's in store for Murphy, and maintain a healthy respect for the total unpredictability of everything, everything, I'm also convinced that Murphy is one of those rare players who changed his game in mid-career. I think he's no longer that singles and doubles hitter spraying the ball over the field for all but the last half season of his Mets stint. And so, I wouldn't consider the old Murphy as the baseline by which to gauge expectations. I think Murphy's a stud now, one of baseball's most dangerous hitters. And I think that that Murphy's here to stay. If his productivity goes down, it'll be because of the inevitable wear and tear and injuries and aging --- not a reversion to the original Murph. Is that just a hunch or are you basing that on anything specific? Not to say you're wrong, I just don't have the depth of understanding to make a prediction on this one way or the other.

A hunch, I guess. Murph's been the new Murph for about a season and a half now. And the explanation is very credible. I mean, this isn't Lenny Dykstra showing up at his first Phillies spring training camp with 20 new pounds of muscle because he "wink wink" worked out a lot in the off season. Murphy's new approach has been corroborated by his hitting coach, Kevin Long, by Terry Collins and by many of his former Mets teammates. In fact, I read that at least one Met -- I think it's Kelly Johnson -- kept in contact with Murph in 2016 because he wanted to try the Murph approach.

[Edgy MD]

It's pretty much how folks go from good to great in baseball. When opposite field hitters learn to turn on the inside pitch, the pitchers can no longer pitch away from their strength. Mattingly did it. Kevin Youklis sort of did it.

Same can be said for pull hitters who find a way to protect away mid-careers. It doesn't happen often, but it happens, and when it does, the pitcher has nothing left but his stuff.

Reason suggests there should be some dropoff for Murphy, but hits aren't just dropping in more often for him. He's hitting stuff he used to not.

[Centerfield]

The idea that Murph has been the new Murph for a season and a half is largely cited as fact, but I don't think this is true. In 2015, post All-Star Murph (which is not even a full half-season) OPS'ed at .803. That's nice production, but no where near what he did this year.

In 2016, Murph came in at .985, and spent 4 entire months up over 1.000 in OPS. That is just a monster performance.

I guess the case could be made, maybe, that he spent the latter part of 2015 building toward this level:

July: .646
August: .861
September: .909
Post-Season: 1.115

And maybe that's why we get the idea that this is a transformation, and not a fluke. Plus the fact that this steady increase coincided with his gradual work with Kevin Long. But really, Monster Murph basically debuted very late in 2015. It wasn't half the year.

I don't know. I'm still hoping that he regresses a lot in 2017. But if the Kevin Long effect is sustainable, this bodes well for Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker right?

[A Boy Named Seo]

The Nats got Murph last year (and way more out of him than anyone expected) and Adam Eaton this year. But how many guys have the Nats whiffed on the last coupla years?

All these names I grabbed from the MLBTR site:

Yoenis Cespedes (last year)
Aroldis Chapman
Kenley Jansen
Mark Melancon
Andrew McCutchen
Chris Sale

Anyone I'm forgetting? I'm grateful everyone thinks playing in DC for that garbage team is a garbage idea, or that their crappy trade offers came up just short.

[Frayed Knot]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: The Nats got Murph last year (and way more out of him than anyone expected) and Adam Eaton this year. But how many guys have the Nats whiffed on the last coupla years?

They certainly hit on Murph but only after he was their third choice in 2nd basemen. They had previously lost out on the Ben Zobrist sweepstakes (as did the Mets) but also Brandon Phillips used his '10 and 5' no-trade protection powers to turn down a deal to Washington.

[Frayed Knot]

With the closer being maybe their only weakness, the Nats went out and signed veterans Joe Nathan and Matt Albers to compete for the back end job as the team futures along youngster Koda Glover (23 y/o, 20 IP in '16).

Nathan is rumored to be 78 y/o and in his 34th season, but none-the-less is unsecured upon across nearly seven innings pitched for three different teams over the last two seasons combined. But at least it's not like he's coming off of multiple TJ surgeries or anything.

Albers, a mere 34, saw his ERA & WHIP rise just a bit to 6.31 / 1.68 during 58 games for the 2016 White Sox

[Edgy MD]

Nathan is also disturbingly undereducated.

[TransMonk]

Matt Albers: Met killer.

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v764119383

[Ceetar]

[tweet:gnp3p6g4]https://twitter.com/MeekPhill_/status/786949647004762112[/tweet:gnp3p6g4]

[Vic Sage]

Edgy MD wrote: Nathan is also disturbingly undereducated.

DOH! i see what you did there, ya bastid.

[Frayed Knot]

Max Scherzer is looking unlikely to be ready for the opening day duties that would otherwise fall logically to him on account of a lingering injury to a knuckle on his pitching hand.

[Frayed Knot]

Nationals said to be closing in on a deal for Matt Weiters

No confirmation or details at this point. Weiters, now 31, never became the 'Pizza with the bat/Mauer with the Glove' monster some predicted for him, but he beats the combo that the Nats were
left with following Wilson Ramos's injury then departure (Derek Norris + Jose Lobaton) and I fear there may just be one of those years in him somewhere.



http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wietema01.shtml

[Ceetar]

[tweet:11qcixbc]

[/tweet:11qcixbc]

[tweet:11qcixbc]

[/tweet:11qcixbc]

[Lefty Specialist]

Rumor is that Norris or Lobaton may be part of a package for David Robertson so that they'd get that closer they desperately need.

[Edgy MD]

Ceetar wrote: [tweet]https://twitter.com/RealEly/status/834080734554030086[/tweet]

This looks like a They Might Be Giants video is being shot.

[Frayed Knot]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Rumor is that Norris or Lobaton may be part of a package for David Robertson so that they'd get that closer they desperately need.

That the Nats having had Robertson on their radar for a while now and that the ChiSox are currently motivated sellers add up to something like this being quite likely before ST is out.
If so the Nats will have plugged up their two biggest weaknesses.