NL East Enemies: 2017 Washington Nationals

[Edgy MD]

Well, their two biggest seeming weaknesses anyhow.

#jaysonwerth #ryanzimmerman

[Frayed Knot]

Well yeah, there's always the (continued) fall-off factor.

They did sign lefty-swinging / 10-year AL vet Adam Lind to play back-up/platoon with Zimmerman at 1st. After getting more than they had any right to expect out of 30 y/o career minor leaguer Clint Robinson in that role in 2015, he couldn't come close to repeating it in 2016 so they went out and got Lind for the same roster slot.

2017 represents the final year for Werth under that mega-deal he signed as the Nats' first-ever big FA contract. He's fading and will turn 38 in May, but overall they've got to be happy with what they got out of his six going on seven seasons despite all the guff they took about overpaying when they signed him - a charge they pretty much admitted to but reasoned that they had to do so for the first one.

I suspect Werth will hold up through this season better than Zimmerman who, despite being some 4-1/2 years younger, is fading faster, more banged-up, has nowhere left to go on the defensive scale, and still has three full years remaining on his (not quite as expensive) deal plus an option buy out to not make it four.

[Frayed Knot]

Nats pick up Joe Blanton on a one-year deal to strengthen their bullpen.

Part of the famed 'Moneyball' draft (24th overall in 2002) he struggled mostly as a starter for four different clubs across ten seasons.
But since skipping all of 2014, he then returned as a reliever and put together two pretty good seasons in 2015 & '16 spread among KC, Pitt, and LAD.

[Edgy MD]

The Transaction Ticker wrote: Nationals sent C Spencer Kieboom outright to Triple-A Syracuse. Kieboom cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week. The 25-year-old will remain in camp as a non-roster invite.

Spencer Kieboom! HOW DID WE NOT CLAIM THIS GUY?!

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: Lefty Specialist wrote: Rumor is that Norris or Lobaton may be part of a package for David Robertson so that they'd get that closer they desperately need. That the Nats having had Robertson on their radar for a while now and that the ChiSox are currently motivated sellers add up to something like this being quite likely before ST is out. If so the Nats will have plugged up their two biggest weaknesses.

The best laid plans ... yadda yadda.
So it turns out that Derrick Norris wasn't quite enough to snag David Robertson ... or anyone else apparently so they simply released him despite just trading for him earlier this winter.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Here's Daniel Murphy's write-up from Baseball Prospectus' 2016 Annual, published just before the start of the 2016 season:

Hey, we're romantics, too. We love to get caught up in the hoopla and take one crazy stretch completely out of context. That's what makes baseball fun. Which is why so many made such a big deal out of Murphy's ... .198/.258/.346 line in April. Well, get it out of your mind now, reader, it put the whole season completely out of whack! There are plenty of other reasons to devalue Murphy: He's 31 this year, and he's already the league's worst defensive second baseman. But a team that believes in his bat might remember that he's played his entire career out of position to accommodate David Wright. A long-awaited return to third base could extend his career. Just don't go flying off the handle based on one month, okay? Come on guys, sample size. We've been over this!

And here's his write-up from this year's BP:

We spend a lot of time and energy trying to educate people about the dangers of buying into small sample sizes, and then every now and again a guy like Murphy has to go and ruin everything. He kept his postseason 2015 party raging for another six months, clearing his career OPS by 200 points -- good enough to lead the Senior Circuit. (He also paced it in doubles and slugging percentage.) Sure he was still one of the poorest defenders at second base that Major League Baseball had to offer, but after he posted the fourth-highest VORP in the game, the glove wasn't exactly the doomsday instrument of impending bench relegation that it once appeared to be. Murphy is living proof that mechanical and approach changes well into established careers can sometimes unlock wondrous new worlds, and his three-year deal with the Nats is on pace to comfortably pay for itself before Memorial Day -- even with the draft pick accounted for.

[Edgy MD]

And that draft pick was ... Anthony Kay ... and his torn UCL.

THANKS, WARD MELVILLE!

[Frayed Knot]

Trea Turner to the DL with a hamstring injury, something which is never a good thing for a speedster SS.
In recent years this would be a sign for the versatile Danny Espinosa but he moved on over the winter so Stephen Drew is the current replacement.

[Frayed Knot]

Frayed Knot wrote: Trea Turner to the DL with a hamstring injury, something which is never a good thing for a speedster SS. In recent years this would be a sign for the versatile Danny Espinosa but he moved on over the winter so Stephen Drew is the current replacement.

Yeah, ignore all the above as, after two games, Stephen Drew now goes to the DL with ... a strained hamstring. Must be contagious.
Nats call up something named Grant Green to fill in. He's had bits of four seasons with OAK, LAA, & SFG (350 total PAs)


btw, the Nats (non-pitcher) hitting line so far is a rocking .321/.396/.546 with only Anthony Rendon and the now-DL'd Trea Turner off to slow starts this year. All other starters are currently hitting .300+ including
a .472 BA for Murphy and .435 from Matt Weiters. That helps to explain their ML-leading 6.00 RS/G
By contrast, even last night's hit-stravaganza only managed to bring the NYM team offense to .232/.305/.449 (4.88 R/G)

[batmagadanleadoff]

For Murph, it's always the 2015 playoffs.

[fimg=444:3vg1vwl8]https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2924/33879149062_089d08959c.jpg[/fimg:3vg1vwl8]

[Frayed Knot]

[u:2xnwu20r]KTE April 21-23[/u:2xnwu20r]

We got six games out of the next nine vs these guys so we better get to know them.


Friday 7:05 — Harvey vs Tanner Roark
WPIX but also MLBN for those without access to the usual outlets

Saturday 4:05 — deGrom vs Gio Gonzalez
SNY & FOX Sports 1

Sunday 8:00 — Wheeler vs Max Scherzer
ESPN, your one and only choice


We pretty much know who’s going to play for the Nats because they run the same lineup out there every day. Only Trea Turner has been DL’d causing them to mix and match at SS for the last 10 games but Turner
is expected to be reactivated for Friday’s game.
Mets of course come into the series completely healthy except for Cespedes, Flores, d’Arnaud, Duda, Wright, Matz, and Lugo

Like us, they're pretty much an unchanged squad since last season. The one major addition was Adam Eaton to play CF allowing them to move Trea Turner back to the IF replacing the departed Danny Espinosa
Eaton doesn't hit for power but he runs, fields, and gets on base.
As far as the rest of their offense they're tops in the NL in RS/G by a wide margin (over 6/per). I could throw up a bunch of individual stats but it’s easier to say that just about all their starters are
hitting over .300 and half the lineup has OBAs over .400 [Weiters = .412; Zimmerman = .431; Eaton = .403; Harper = .515]
Murph is slumming it at the moment at .344/.375/.557 leaving only Anthony Rendon to lag behind in the raking department with a HR-less .226 BA.


Their pitching is actually among the worst in the league for RA/G although a good chunk of that is the small sample size this early combined with the 17-3 posting they took from the Phils. They released pitcher
Mark Guthrie the next day despite having signed him to a FA contract over the winter. His Nats career ends at 2/3 inning and 10 earned runs; that's an ERA of 135.00 and a WHiP of 15.00

Their biggest weakness this season has been the bullpen and mainly their closer. After losing Mark Melancon to FA-gency and coming up empty on several replacement candidates over the winter, they handed
the job to Blake Treinen who quickly racked up a convenience store ERA (7.11) and handed it back. Thursday night’s closing assignment went to Shawn Kelley who put two on but squeaked out with the save although
he’s being viewed as nothing more than the place-holder for 24 y/o hard-throwing Koda Glover dubbed as “Closer of the Future” despite the fact that he has a whopping 26 IP under his belt since his ML debut last
July.

[Edgy MD]

Nats' Leadoff Hitter Adam Eaton: .304 / .403 / .446 // .849.

All Mets Leadoff Hitters Combined: .070 / .154 / .127 // .281.

[Frayed Knot]

[u:2ome2vr4]KTE @ Nats - Apr 28-30[/u:2ome2vr4]

Nats a 16-6 overall, have lost twice in the last two weeks, and are coming off a game in Colorado where they scored more runs in yesterday's 7th inning than the Mets have all week.
I'd put up individual stats but it's too depressing, just assume that every member of their lineup is hitting over .400 with power because that's pretty close to true.
Their bullpen still sucks (6.18 ERA - .295 BAA) but they managed to hold the Mets to no runs on 1 hit over 8 innings in the last series.

Friday 7:05 -- Max Scherzer vs deGrom
Mets notched 3 runs on 5 hits over 8 innings vs Scherzer on Sunday courtesy of HRs from Conforto and Walker

Saturday 1:05 (yes, apparently day games on Saturday are still permitted) -- Steven Strasberg vs Wheeler
We missed Strasberg last time around (paternity leave), he's 2-0 in 4 starts with 2.89 ERA and 1.04 WHIP

Sunday 1:05 -- Joe Ross vs some fan who wins a lucky drawing to be held on Saturday
2 starts for Ross so far this season, the most recent one on Monday when he got thumped in Colorado in the only game the Nats have lost since April 15.
Overall Mets are 1-1 against him in 3 career starts

[Edgy MD]

So, even taking one of three will be a moral victory. Taking two would be an outrageous upset. Three would be a season-saver.

Adam Wilk got raked last night, so he is unlikely for Sunday's start. Montero has had one start with Las Vegas, throwing seven innings of two-hit shutout ball, with seven K's and no walks. He's currently on track to start for them tomorrow night, so he's probably a good bet. Gilly, who hasn't performed well in AAA or the bigs this year, is scheduled for Sunday. Tyler Pill, who hasn't allowed a run yet in four starts (two for Bingo, two for Vegas) is a dark horse, as he is not currently on the roster.

[Lefty Specialist]

Quick trade for Bartolo perhaps?

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: So, even taking one of three will be a moral victory. Taking two would be an outrageous upset. Three would be a season-saver.

At the moment I'd settle for NOT being multiple runs down by the end of the 1st inning.

[bmfc1]

I will be at tonight's game, section 113, head down, looking sad.

[batmagadanleadoff]

This guy.... This guy, I tells ya.

[fimg=444:3e5xat15]https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4171/33939622180_97cbe1c6d4_z.jpg[/fimg:3e5xat15]

[bmfc1]

After last night, Dusty Baker said that Terry made the wrong move because Harper is hitting .470 against lefties but it was the necessary move. Hey Dusty, go fuck yourself. Take care of your own team. See if they can win a playoff series. Mind your own business. And get your bratty kid away from home plate.

[Frayed Knot]

Edgy MD wrote: So, even taking one of three will be a moral victory. Taking two would be an outrageous upset. Three would be a season-saver.

One - Check

Two - Check

Three - ?


And the remaining game is the one where we (theoretically anyway) have the pitching matchup on our side for the first time in the series.

[Edgy MD]

Still not sure he'll be answering the bell. Nor am I sure that he should be.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I like the way Eaton hustled as much as the next guy, maybe more, but he's out for the year with a torn ACL on that play

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Adam Eaton is out for the remainder of the season as his MRI showed a torn left ACL. Michael Taylor is expected to replace Eaton in CF.*


* upon edit: Lunchbucket scooped me.

Edited April 29, 2017 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

He should have refused the MRI!

[Frayed Knot]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: He should have refused the MRI!

Because then it wouldn't have shown the tear and his knee would be fine!!


Suxx for Eaton but you knew that didn't look good as soon as it happened.
Tough for the Nats too as they gave up a lot for him -- Lucas Giolito plus one other promising pitcher. On the other hand, I hadn't realized that Eaton was one of those guys the ChiSox signed two years ago back
when they (and the Padres) were trying to spend their way into 1st place in the course of one off-season. So the Nats inherited a rather team-friendly contract and have him signed at reasonable (although
escalating) rates thru 2019 and even then have team options on him for 2020 & 2021 so it's not like they went all-in on him for just this year.

Now all Chisox have to do is find out why Giolito suxx so bad this year at AAA Charlotte just one season removed from being the best pitching prospect in baseball. The other guy, Reynaldo Lopez, not doing so
well either.
As the boys at Baseball Prospectus say: TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect)

[Edgy MD]

.226 / .316 / .250 // .566
.278 / .356 / .411 // .768

What do these two slash lines represent?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Leadoff numbers after Eaton/leadoff numbers WITH Eaton?

[Edgy MD]

Anthony Rendon at the start of last Sunday's game.

Anthony Rendon at the end of last Sunday's game.

[Frayed Knot]

KTE - June 15-18
It's the start of a big four game series tonight and we haven’t seen these guys since the end of April so let’s check out what they’ve been up to lately.

They score runs; best in the NL at BA, OBA, SLG (and naturally OPS) HRs, and RS/G, several of those by a sizable margin.
Individually, Harper is over whatever bugged him last year, Matt Weiters, Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon are all over their slow starts; Murphy still enjoying his middle-aged renaissance; and
there’s simply no explanation for Ryan Zimmerman who’s just a couple RBIs shy of a Triple Crown lead and is on pace for 50 HRs in a career which has only once topped 30 and even that was
several years and multiple injuries ago.

They’re also 4th best at preventing runs in the NL which, considering the state of their bullpen, pretty much says how their starters are doing.
The pen was the team’s big Achilles heel coming into the season and has only gotten worse since. They’re so bad they’d kill to have our bullpen issues. Players in the Nats clubhouse have
recently been quoted as saying “it’s like we have to win each game three different times” on account of leads given up and often re-given up.

Bullpen ERAs tend to be a bit better than that for starters (league-wide splits = 4.13 ERA for relievers vs 4.45 for starters) but the Nats have that completely flipped at 5.20 ® vs 3.80 (S)
And even that doesn’t tell the whole story. I wish I could remember the exact stat I heard the other day about how many games they’ve lost after holding leads of 2 runs or more in the 8th inning
or later. Suffice to say it was a lot and is by far the highest in baseball.

But despite all that (mostly) good news they have "only" the third best record in the NL and come into town losers of 5 of their last 6 (swept by Texas, lost 2 of 3 to Atlanta)


These should be the pitching match-ups for the weekend even though several of the games are still listed as TBA on mlb’s site.

Gio Gonzalez vs pinch-running specialist Robert Gsellman
[5-1; 2.91; 1.32] Gio seems to alternate good years with so-so ones and is on a good cycle right now. He’ll also be our third straight LH starter faced

Max Scherzer vs pinch-hitting specialist Steven Matz
[7-4; 2.36; 0.85] Scherzer totaled 32 innings and 48 strikeouts over his last four games the most recent of which he inexplicably lost, only partly due to the pen.

Steven Strasburg vs spin specialist Seth Lugo
[7-2; 3.27; 1.06] Strasburg got batted around in his last start vs Atlanta — 6 runs, 7 hits incl. 3 HRs in just 5 IP — despite K’ing 10

Joe Ross vs hair care specialist Jacob deGrom
[3-2; 6.39; 1.53] Ross pretty much sucks (see numbers) but is 3-2 because on days when he pitches Nats bats are averaging a redonculous 12 runs per game!!




Injured: Nats are currently missing 2/3 of their starting OF plus one backup OF.
So Michael Taylor is playing pretty much everyday CF while a combo of Adam Lind (a hitter disguised as a fielder) and recent call-up/2011 1st round draft pick Brian Goodwin cover LF
They also picked up utility man Ryan Raburn from the ChiSox a few weeks back.

Jayson Werth - left foot contusion. Can come off the DL as early as today but I don’t think he’s scheduled to

Chris Heisey - right biceps rupture … which I think is Latin for “steroid miscalculation”

Koda Glover - their hoped-to-be future closer strained his back in a bizarre [crossout]gardening[/crossout] showering accident
No, seriously, he hurt himself reaching for the body wash in the shower, then only fessed up to the 'tweak' after blowing a game that night.

Adam Eaton - out for year with torn knee

[bmfc1]

[tweet:3al24v27]

[/tweet:3al24v27]
Go ahead.