Hall of Fame ballot

[MFS62]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Schilling and Kent. What's the matter with you lib'ral lezzies?

I voted for Kent, too. Nothing to do with politics - he was very good.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

You can take micro-analysis like this too far in some cases, but the fact that Mussina put up his numbers pitching against the mostly power-stacked lineups in hitter-friendly parks of the AL East during the offense-happy 1990s/2000s works in his favor too.

[seawolf17]

Vic Sage wrote: If you voted in this poll, which of your candidates received the fewest votes from your fellow Poolers? Now make an argument for that player.

Fun challenge. I voted for Matt Stairs as my baseball doppelganger, not as a serious candidate. But rules are rules.

Pinch-hitting is perhaps the most misunderstood skill in all of baseball. Spending several innings on the bench each game, chewing gum and spitting, then suddenly to be called on in a spot where your manager says "I need a guy who can get things going RIGHT NOW, and the guy I'm supposed to send up there right now isn't that guy." Well, did you know, my fellow Poolers, who hit more PH home runs than any other player in the HISTORY OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL? I'll give you a hint. It's Matt Stairs, with 23 over his career.

With the expansion of baseball over the past fifty years, more fans in more parts of the US and Canada have found teams to call "home." And yet, no modern Hall of Famer played for more than nine different teams, and such, how reflective can the Hall really be of today's game of free agency and player movement? But there's one guy on this year's ballot who got paychecks from TWELVE different major league franchises... and his name starts with "M" and rhymes with "Bat Stairs."

There are plenty of Hall of Famers who have never won a World Series. But Matt Stairs not only won a ring with the 2008 Phillies (boo), but he did it while hitting to a 1.250 OPS, including a game-winning pinch-hit home run (!!) in Game 4 of the NLCS.

In 1999, Ivan Rodriguez won a very close MVP race in the American League. However, considering that several players who received votes that year were steroid users and should be disqualified (Rodriguez, Manny, Palmeiro, Giambi, A-Rod), two had already won an MVP award (Griffey, Juan Gonzalez), two were pitchers (Pedro, Mariano), two played in Canada (Green, Delgado), three were middle infielders (Alomar, Nomar, Vizquel), one was a MFY (Bernie Williams), and one sucks (Jeter)... the case could be made that the player who finished 17th in the voting should have actually won. That was Matt Stairs.

DID YOU KNOW? For a guy not known for his fielding prowess, Matt Stairs made only 40 errors in his entire career. Hall of Famer Pee Wee Reese made 47 errors HIMSELF in 1941 alone.

In 2001, Cubs manager Don Baylor sensed that one of his players was a threat to Baylor's legacy as one of the greatest DHs of all time; so late in a blowout June loss to Arizona, he inserted that player at second base, even though he'd never played second base before. Unfortunately, for Baylor, that player played one flawless, chanceless inning of defense, and is now a Hall of Fame candidate... Matt Stairs.

Among all right fielders in major league history, Matt Stairs is 169th all time in JAWS. Fellow right fielder Whitey Herzog, however, somehow made it to the Hall despite being 311th all time.

Stairs finished his career with 265 home runs, which ties him for 191st all time. There's a certain former shortstop who played across town for a good chunk of his career who's going to get a lot of Hall press when he becomes eligible, despite ONLY hitting 260.

Born in Canada, Stairs' 19 seasons is the most of any Canadian player, and his 265 homers are second all time. He also ranks second all-time among Canadians in games (1,895) and walks (717) and third in RBI (899) and doubles (294), and is just one of four Canadians to play for both the Expos and Blue Jays.

I rest my case.

[Guest d'Kong76]

I thought mine was Sosa but it's Lee Smith. I don't know how much of a case
I can make as relievers seem to have trouble getting in. Smith was the most
dominant reliever for almost two decades and was the all-time saves leader
for at least a dozen years. VOTE SMITH - Make Relieving Great Again!

Edited December 1, 2016 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

Mine is Tim Raines.

[Edgy MD]

As cherry picked as it may be, that case for Matt Stairs was more compelling than I expected.

[nymr83]

i just voted.

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Jeff Bagwell
Sammy Sosa
Manny Ramirez
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
Ivan Rodriguez
Tim Raines
Vladimir Guerrero

I would consider Walker and Edgar if I had another vote. I don't think any of the relievers should get in over the hitters/starters, but taking them in isolation i'd barely put Wagner in and barely keep Hoffman out, Lee Smith is very overrated.


my lowest are Schilling - I expect thats just a bunch of people voting against him for non-baseball reasons - and Sosa. if you're going to ignore the ROIDS he is a clear-cut HOFer, and if not, why did you vote for Bonds?

[Chad ochoseis]

Born in Canada, Stairs' 19 seasons is the most of any Canadian player, and his 265 homers are second all time.

Second to LARRY FRIGGIN' WALKER, today's birthday boy. And I believe Walker's 17 seasons are second only to Stairs.

I made my case for Walker in my original post, but in a nutshell, .313/.400/.565 are absolute, no-questions-asked HoF offensive numbers, even putting aside 7 Gold Gloves and 230 SBs.

The only argument you can make against him is that his offensive stats are purely a Coors creation. They're Coors-inflated, of course, but the non-Coors stats I calculated in my original post are still borderline HoF, and by excluding Coors, they exclude his age 28-36 home stats. Make some estimates as to what those stats would have been in a neutral ballpark, and you've still got a Hall of Famer. Or, you could just look at the 141 OPS+. I don't completely trust park adjustments, so I didn't give the OPS+ much weight.

Speaking of OPS+, though, Sammy Sosa's is 128. That's in Rusty Staub/Norm Cash/Don Mattingly territory - very much on the border. And I lived in Chicago in the 90's and saw a lot of Sosa on the field. He was abysmal at the stuff that doesn't show up in statistics. I'm not talking about Jeteresque "intangibles"; I'm talking about taking first pitches when your team is behind and you need runners on base, catching baseballs with both hands, throwing to the correct base, etc. The Tom Emanski fundamentals. He sucked at them. So I can leave out Sosa with a clear conscience.

Gwreck mentioned Mark McGwire, whom I said I wouldn't have voted for. He's off the ballot now, so the question is moot. But the points made in his favor are good ones; McGwire is a tough call.

[A Boy Named Seo]

seawolf17 wrote: Vic Sage wrote: If you voted in this poll, which of your candidates received the fewest votes from your fellow Poolers? Now make an argument for that player. In 1999, Ivan Rodriguez won a very close MVP race in the American League. However, considering that several players who received votes that year were steroid users and should be disqualified (Rodriguez, Manny, Palmeiro, Giambi, A-Rod), two had already won an MVP award (Griffey, Juan Gonzalez), two were pitchers (Pedro, Mariano), two played in Canada (Green, Delgado), three were middle infielders (Alomar, Nomar, Vizquel), one was a MFY (Bernie Williams), and one sucks (Jeter)... the case could be made that the player who finished 17th in the voting should have actually won. That was Matt Stairs.

All of it great, but this one got me the most.

[seawolf17]

Edgy MD wrote: As cherry picked as it may be, that case for Matt Stairs was more compelling than I expected.

Can't wait for the induction ceremony.

[Frayed Knot]

Stairs has kind of a cool backstory too.
Born in the Canadian Maritimes -- St. John, New Brunswick to be precise, a Canadian who wound up playing for both Canadian teams -- he lived much of his career in that well-known habitat for wintering ballplayers: Bangor, Maine. And as if Maine itself isn't odd enough, Bangor isn't one of those coastal, southern / 'oh isn't this a nice vacation spot' / still within Boston's orbit part of Maine. Oh, Hell No, it's in way-the-fuck-up-there part of inland Maine where when your drive from NYC hits New Hampshire it means you're close to halfway there.
Towards the end of his career Stairs spent his off-seasons in Bangor coaching high school ice hockey which I believe included at least one of his own kids (or, Hell, he played until age 43, maybe he was coaching his grandkids). He's also pretty decent on the Philly telecasts where he does part-time work.


That said, he's not getting into the HoF

[Edgy MD]

seawolf17 wrote: With the expansion of baseball over the past fifty years, more fans in more parts of the US and Canada have found teams to call "home." And yet, no modern Hall of Famer played for more than nine different teams, and such, how reflective can the Hall really be of today's game of free agency and player movement? But there's one guy on this year's ballot who got paychecks from TWELVE different major league franchises... and his name starts with "M" and rhymes with "Bat Stairs."

Also wore nine different numbers, by my count. Suck it, Jeff McKnight.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

My least popular vote is for Curt Schilling. He's become an absolute dick, I mean about the worst guy imaginable, but during his career he was ironically known for power and great control. 15th all-time in strikeouts and 3rd best career in whiff-to-walk ratio.

Pitched for 20 years and took 3 different teams to the World Series, winning twice, tremendous MFY killer and memorable opponent, 6 time all-star, slightly above average HOFs in all the comparative monitors

[Frayed Knot]

The only real 'knock' on Schilling is that the second half of his career was a lot better than the first*, a scenario which probably helps him with the voters because the better half is fresher in their minds.
Guys who go in the opposite direction [Mattingly, Dale Murphy] tend to leave the opposite impression as they're seen as not living up to their early HoF pace while we rarely if ever hear mention of the fact that it took a while for Schilling's career to get going or be anything close to consistent and was on his way to getting an 'underachiever' label stamped on his forehead.



* 52 wins over the nine ML seasons in his 20's, 20 of those wins in just two years.
Only after that did he kick it into gear as the next eight seasons (ages 30 - 37) were his 'Peak' years: 132 wins; six times 200+ IP (only twice in his 20s); six AS teams; three 2nds and a 4th in CY voting, plus all the post-season heroics.

[Edgy MD]

His second half was indisputably better, but he was also damn good in the first half, just (a) less consistent from season to season, and ( doing it for some dreadful Phillie teams, so not accumulating wins.

He and David Wells are evidence that control on the mound doesn't always correlate with personal control.

[Guest Mets Guy in Michigan]

I saw a comparison the other day showing that Mussina's stats are pretty similar to Glavine's, less Glavine's 300 wins and Mets glow and plus MFY taint, and I mean the worst kind, where they want to wear a MFY cap on the plaque. There are enough undeserving Yankees in the Hall.

[Frayed Knot]

Schilling had one real good year early on (1992 - at age 25) and a couple of partial good ones, but mainly he just wasn't on the field enough in his 20s. A part-time reliever early on as he was swapped from Baltimore to Houston and then on to Philly, even when switched to a starter he topped 30 starts only once that whole first decade (and 20+ only two others).
But starting at age 30 he averaged over 30/year for nearly a decade and had dominate results to go with it.

[nymr83]

Mussina loses my vote if hes not going in with a retro Orioles hat.

[Edgy MD]

I think we have 28 ballots with Bagwell and Vladwell each named on 27.

[nymr83]

who are the Pudge nay-sayers?

he is an all-time great catcher - top 5 at the position!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Nymr83 wrote: who are the Pudge nay-sayers? he is an all-time great catcher - top 5 at the position!

Superlative defender, and an excellent offensive player for a decade. I don't get how he isn't first-ballot, honestly.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: I think we have 28 ballots with Bagwell and Vladwell each named on 27.

OK, I'll 'fess up. I'm a vter who didn't vote for Raines.
Yes, he was a good player for an extended period of time.
But if you had awakened me in the middle of the night at any time during his career and asked me to name the top 5 players in the game, I don't think I would have named him. Yes. he complied some outstanding numbers, but he just didn't hit me as being an all- time great while he was playing.
Like Dennis Miller said, "Its just my opinion and, I may be wrong".

Later

[Edgy MD]

I'm not sure that top-fiveyness should be the standard. In the game? Well, I certainly have no problem making the argument that he was one of the top five players in the National League at any point between 1983 and 1987. I mean, he may have occasionally fallen to seventh during a given month in that period. But I'd bet, over those five years overall, he accumulated as many fWARs as anybody.

He may well have been the second-best leadoff hitter of all time, a lofty claim to fame which is obscured by the reality that the best was virtually his exact contemporary, and didn't spend the second half of his career fighting lupus.

[Edgy MD]

Here you go.

NL fWAR Leaders, 1983–1987

1) Tim Raines, MON: 32.6
2) Mike Schmidt, PHI: 31.2
3) Dale Murphy, ATL: 26.4
4) Gary Carter, MON/NYM: 25.9
5) Tony Gwynn, SDP: 25.6
6) Keith Hernandez, STL/NYM: 25.5
7) Ozzie Smith, STL 24.1
8) Ryne Sandberg, CHI: 21.6
9) Pedro Guerrero, LAD: 20.8
10) Bill Doran, HOU: 20.3

If you go league-wide, three American Leaguers finish ahead of him: Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken, and (naturally) Ricky Henderson. But that still suggests he's one of the top five players in either league, and the best in the National League, over a meaningful period of time.

I could also include pitchers in there. The leading pitcher, as far as fWAR, over that period is Dwight Gooden, with 26.5

[seawolf17]

Here you go. NL fWAR Leaders, 1983–1987 1) Tim Raines, MON: 32.6 2) Mike Schmidt, PHI: 31.2 3) Dale Murphy, ATL: 26.4 4) Gary Carter, MON/NYM: 25.9 5) Tony Gwynn, SDP: 25.6 6) Keith Hernandez, STL/NYM: 25.5[/bigpurple] 7) Ozzie Smith, STL 24.1 8) Ryne Sandberg: 21.6 9) Pedro Guerrero: 20.8 10) Bill Doran: 20.3 If you go league-wide, three American Leaguers finish ahead of him: Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken, and (naturally) Ricky Henderson. But that still suggests he's one of the top five players in either league, and the best in the National League, over a meaningful period of time. I could also include pitchers in there. The leading pitcher, as far as fWAR, over that period is Dwight Gooden, with 26.5

[stevejrogers]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Nymr83 wrote: who are the Pudge nay-sayers? he is an all-time great catcher - top 5 at the position! Superlative defender, and an excellent offensive player for a decade. I don't get how he isn't first-ballot, honestly.

He does seem to have more "substantial" PED "taint" than Piazza did (named in Canseco book, teammate of users in Texas, deflated and power numbers "decreased" with the advent of testing, etc).

[batmagadanleadoff]

Here you go. NL fWAR Leaders, 1983–1987 1) Tim Raines, MON: 32.6 2) Mike Schmidt, PHI: 31.2 3) Dale Murphy, ATL: 26.4 4) Gary Carter, MON/NYM: 25.9 5) Tony Gwynn, SDP: 25.6 6) Keith Hernandez, STL/NYM: 25.5 7) Ozzie Smith, STL 24.1 8) Ryne Sandberg, CHI: 21.6 9) Pedro Guerrero, LAD: 20.8 10) Bill Doran, HOU: 20.3 If you go league-wide, three American Leaguers finish ahead of him: Wade Boggs, Cal Ripken, and (naturally) Ricky Henderson. But that still suggests he's one of the top five players in either league, and the best in the National League, over a meaningful period of time. I could also include pitchers in there. The leading pitcher, as far as fWAR, over that period is Dwight Gooden, with 26.5

Wow. I played the 1985 Strat-O-Matic set quite a bit in the late '80's, and always a NL only draft league. To this day, I'm quite familiar with the '85 NL, which is the middle year of that '83-'87 range. All those guys on that list were drafted in every '85 set league I played. I wonder where Jack Clark and Darryl Strawberry rank on that list? I bet they're near misses. I'm also surprised that Carter's on that list given his big fade after the '86 season. Or maybe not, because this being fWAR, I'd guess that before he faded, the gap between Carter and the next best catcher might've been the biggest at any given position. I can assure you that that was the case in '85. Carter was always the #1 overall pick in the '85 draft leagues I played. He certainly wasn't the best player available, but you really had to have him because the drop-off in quality between Carter and the next best catcher was chasm-like.

[Edgy MD]

Among NL position players, Strawberry would be 11th, and Jack Clark 15th. If you count pitchers, Straw would be 15th, and Clark 22nd.

I think lack of competition among catchers is a big part of Carter's ranking. As much as he was dropping off, no catcher had sustained success during that period, and a lot weren't even playing regularly enough. Carter stayed healthy. In 1985, only five catchers qualified for the batting title. Here's how they ranked that year.

Rank	Name	Team	G	PA	Off	Def	WAR
1	Gary Carter	Mets	149	633	27.4	16.3	6.7
2	Mike Scioscia	Dodgers	141	526	23.0	12.9	5.5
3	Terry Kennedy	Padres	143	565	-9.4	19.1	2.9
4	Tony Pena	Pirates	147	587	-16.6	21.7	2.5
5	Jody Davis	Cubs	142	536	-7.7	13.7	2.4
6	Mark Bailey	Astros	114	402	11.4	-2.0	2.4
7	Ozzie Virgil	Phillies	131	483	5.4	0.1	2.2
8	Darrell Porter	Cardinals	84	284	3.7	7.2	2.1
9	Alan Ashby	Astros	65	216	8.4	-2.8	1.4
10	Bo Diaz	Phillies/Reds	77	263	-3.8	5.0	1.0
11	Bob Brenly	Giants	133	505	-1.6	-6.9	0.9
12	Bruce Bochy	Padres	48	120	1.3	-0.2	0.5
13	Darren Daulton	Phillies	36	119	-0.5	1.6	0.5
14	Alex Treviño	Giants	57	179	0.5	-3.1	0.4
15	Junior Ortíz	Pirates	23	76	-0.9	1.2	0.3

But, hey, if it's 1985, I pick Dwight Gooden first, every time. 1985!

[batmagadanleadoff]

Two things:

1) Mark Bailey was an under the radar stealth find in '85. He was a short career scrub, but in 1985, he had his career year. 10 HR's in 332 AB's playing in The Astrodome, no less ... Bailey was also a walking machine that season, on-basing just a snip under .400. Going by memory, I'd rate him no lower than the 4th best NL catcher of '85, and maybe as high as 3rd -- at least in an S-O-M league, anyways.

2) If the 1985 season played out in 2016, today's baseball awards voters would have made Dwight Gooden the MVP. And it would have been a fucking landslide.

Thanks for the chart.

[Frayed Knot]

One under the radar note from this week's winter meetings is the revelation that all future HoF ballots will be made public.