When will David Wright retire?

[Chad ochoseis]

Don't want to get too far off the Wright topic, but nobody has proved that OPS isn't a useful statistic, or that it's highly deceptive. It's flawed, certainly, for the reasons you mentioned - that's why I said that the stats I was using weren't perfect. But if team X has an average OPS of .750, and team Y has an average OPS of .700, it's a good bet that team X will be more productive, by any offensive measure you're willing to use.

I used OPS because that was the stat that was easy to copy off the web quickly. wOBA might have been better, but I don't know where to download up to date wOBA quickly, conveniently, and cheaply by player.

Regarding exit velocity, the FiveThirtyEight article seems to imply that exit velocity isn't particularly useful unless coupled with launch angle, with the exception that home runs have a consistently high exit velocity. And simply looking at average exit velocity and average launch angle wouldn't be helpful, as you'd need to look at each instance in tandem. That is, an average exit velocity of 85 mph and an average launch angle of 12 degrees may represent a good line drive hitter (if there isn't much variance in that launch angle's distribution) or just a stiff who pops up and grounds out a lot (if the launch angle's distribution has a high variance).

[Frayed Knot]

Some stuff to chew on regarding a lot of what's been discussed in this thread.

http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/13/david-wright-is-living-the-best-case-scenario/



I'll need to digest this a bit more fully when I have some time.

[nymr83]

lets get real here - Cuddyer was a much older player with ONE year left on his deal who figured he'd rather take an undisclosed buyout to retire instead of riding the bench all season. Wright is a man owed a ton of money over many seasons who really doesn't have to do anything - other than find a doctor who says he cant play - to collect it all.

So the real question is what is the soonest the Mets' would stomach a monster-size buyout? I'd have to think the last year of the deal.

The other factor is the embarrassment factor that many believe the Wilpons' look at combined with their post-Madoff "cheapness" - Wright getting a buyout makes for Bonilla-like jokes for decades to come while Wright on the DL is just another bad contract. Also, Wright on the DL inflates their payroll number while a bought-out Wright leads to years of criticism as to what their 'true' payroll is as they try to say that "counts" and the critics say it doesnt.

I say he retires after the contract, and probably spends 1/3 of the remaining contract on the DL.

Now, he hasn't actually been bad so far this season... but i'm really skeptical of back injuries

[batmagadanleadoff]

Frayed Knot wrote: Some stuff to chew on regarding a lot of what's been discussed in this thread. http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/13/david-wright-is-living-the-best-case-scenario/ I'll need to digest this a bit more fully when I have some time.

This is what I kinda thought was going on. If Wright is making less overall contact -- and he undoubtedly is -- but hitting the ball harder, then he's likely being more selective. Probably with pitches at and near the edges of the plate that he recognizes that he can no longer hit -- at least not as good as he used to. On those pitches, he's just letting them go by, hoping to get the ball instead of strike call.

If this is an accurate explanation of what's going on with Wright, then i don't think that he'll be able to sustain his current level of effectiveness -- I'd expect more decline, probably in-season. The reason being that pitchers that haven't yet figured out Wright's new vulnerabilities will find out soon enough and then those pitches at the edges that Wright can't handle will suddenly appear more and more so right over the fat part of the plate where Wright won't be able to take them and hope for a ball call.

I hope I'm wrong.

[Edgy MD]

Nymr83 wrote: lets get real here - Cuddyer was a much older player with ONE year left on his deal who figured he'd rather take an undisclosed buyout to retire instead of riding the bench all season.

Of course, he'd be our first baseman right about now.

[Frayed Knot]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: This is what I kinda thought was going on. If Wright is making less overall contact -- and he undoubtedly is -- but hitting the ball harder, then he's likely being more selective. Probably with pitches at and near the edges of the plate that he recognizes that he can no longer hit -- at least not as good as he used to. On those pitches, he's just letting them go by, hoping to get the ball instead of strike call.

That selectivity would also explain the increased pct of K's-looking.
My only gripe with the piece is that BP (as BP tends to do) is taking a small sample size and acting as if they now know the set pattern for the remainder of his career. Maybe that will be it, but that's a big assumption to make based on just 26 games - the number that Davey had played up to the point of the article. And it's not like his K-rate hasn't fluctuated before.

[Frayed Knot]

[fimg=400:l0wlp2zh]http://edex.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/montypython.gif[/fimg:l0wlp2zh]

[Edgy MD]

David Wright looks like he's going to cause a few retirements before he packs it in himself.

[Guest cooby]

Frayed Knot wrote: [fimg=400]http://edex.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/montypython.gif[/fimg]

Fk, WTF is that? I might wake up screaming

[Frayed Knot]

[fimg=450:20gopwsd]http://parktheatreholland.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/banner-python.jpg[/fimg:20gopwsd]

[Guest cooby]

Oh okay! Monty Python makes even scary stuff ok !

[Zvon]

You have to see it Cooby

[youtube:karmzpy3]W4rR-OsTNCg[/youtube:karmzpy3]

[Guest cooby]

'I feel fine!'

[Zvon]

That's a classic. As is the whole movie. Check it out sometime.

[Guest cooby]

I'm sure I've seen it! But I'm overdue to see it again!

[batmagadanleadoff]

I wonder if David Wright took a page from last season's new Daniel Murphy playbook? When Wright sees a pitch that he thinks he can handle, he tries to annihilate it, instead of just hitting it. It's consistent with the BP piece FK linked to above.

[Centerfield]

Zvon wrote: You have to see it Cooby [youtube]W4rR-OsTNCg[/youtube]

"I think I'll go for a walk..."

[Lefty Specialist]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Some stuff to chew on regarding a lot of what's been discussed in this thread. http://mets.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/13/david-wright-is-living-the-best-case-scenario/ I'll need to digest this a bit more fully when I have some time. This is what I kinda thought was going on. If Wright is making less overall contact -- and he undoubtedly is -- but hitting the ball harder, then he's likely being more selective. Probably with pitches at and near the edges of the plate that he recognizes that he can no longer hit -- at least not as good as he used to. On those pitches, he's just letting them go by, hoping to get the ball instead of strike call. If this is an accurate explanation of what's going on with Wright, then i don't think that he'll be able to sustain his current level of effectiveness -- I'd expect more decline, probably in-season. The reason being that pitchers that haven't yet figured out Wright's new vulnerabilities will find out soon enough and then those pitches at the edges that Wright can't handle will suddenly appear more and more so right over the fat part of the plate where Wright won't be able to take them and hope for a ball call. I hope I'm wrong.

Interesting. Certainly explains all those strikeouts looking. And last night, just one hit but that hit left the yard. He's hitting .226, but has a .788 OPS.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Like I said before, it's a different shape, but not necessarily less effective.

Hell, it's pretty much what we got out of Grandy last year, along with unexpectedly good defense.

[Guest d'Kong76]

Marc Carig, Newsday -- Mets’ David Wright now dealing with neck injury

[Zvon]

"Now the neck, that's pretty close to the spine, isn't it? Could the someone who's causing the back be the same someone causing the neck? Just speaking hypothetically here, mind you..."

[ashie62]

d'Kong76 wrote: Marc Carig, Newsday -- Mets’ David Wright now dealing with neck injury

This is really not good.

Should David be thinking about his body in life after baseball at this point or is that just off base.

[Zvon]

Marc Carig, Newsday -- Mets’ David Wright now dealing with neck injury This is really not good. Should David be thinking about his body in life after baseball at this point or is that just off base.

Unfortunately not off base:(

[Zvon]

Herniated disc in his neck.


OE: More about it tomorrow after Dave sees doc.

David Wright says it's difficult to turn his head side to side. He's hoping medicine keeps reducing pain. Notes it's team's call on DL.

[MFS62]

Herniated disc in his neck. OE: More about it tomorrow after Dave sees doc. David Wright says it's difficult to turn his head side to side. He's hoping medicine keeps reducing pain. Notes it's team's call on DL.

Well, it would be a way to make room on the roster for the new first baseman they just acquired.

Later

[Edgy MD]

The Mets will need room on the 40 for Lonesome, so it might take more than that. It could be a dramatic 24 hours. I suspect a possible DFA of Campbell and transfer of Walker to third is also on the table.

[duan]

I don't see them DFA'ing Campbell, but I could be wrong. I'd think that Jeff Walters could well be your man - a 28 year old reliever with a 9+ era in AAA (even Las Vegas) isn't going to have THAT many people grabbing him.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I only mention it as a possibility. Walters has cleared waivers before and he's probably their best candidate to clear them again.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: The Mets will need room on the 40 for Lonesome, so it might take more than that. It could be a dramatic 24 hours. I suspect a possible DFA of Campbell and transfer of Walker to third is also on the table.

"On the table," insofar as Conforto's first-base move was, or Campbell pitching the other day was. Like, it was verbalized at some point, and it's theoretically within the realm of possibility, as nothing precluding that has yet occurred. But yeah... positional shifts, when you've got guys who can fill in more naturally (see: Willy F, Loney), are probably a bridge too far for a defense that's already halfway to shrugging at balls in play.

[ashie62]

This is horrible. I am sad for him. I believe it is over.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15913633/david-wright-new-york-mets-extended-period