Kemp or Ethier

[Edgy MD]

You've got Ned Colletti on the phone and he's offered you Kemp or Ethier. You hammer out a package... say, den Dekker, Murphy, and Montero. That sounds doable from your end, but which of these guys do you want?

Kemp Kwalities:

• better (when at the top of their respective games)
  
• younger (by two and a half years)
  
• more athletic
  
• righthanded
  
• nicknamed "The Bison"
  
• signed through 2019
  
  2014: $21,000,000
  2015: $21,000,000
  2016: $21,500,000
  2017: $21,500,000
  2018: $21,500,000
  2019: $21,500,000

Ethier Extras

• healthier
  
• less expensive
  
• available buyout on the butt end of the contract
  
• lefthanded
  
• nicknamed "Captain Clutch" (ugh)
  
• signed through 2018
  
  2014 : $15,500,000
  2015: $18,000,000
  2016 : $18,000,000
  2017: $17,500,000
  2018: $17,500,000, with a $2.5 million buyout.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

"Hey, if I could offer you a million dollars, or a thousand dollars, which one would you rather have? Keep in mind... you have to pay the taxes on either."

[Vic Sage]

Also, Kemp is more erratic; he can be great or awful (with annual WARs going from -1 to over 8). Ethier is more consistent (WARs in the 2-3 range, peaking at 3.8). But Ethier has a high platoon differential, so he is neutralized by lefties.

i say go for the gusto. no pain, no gain. give me a shot at an MVP candidate.

[Edgy MD]

I went for Kemp, but I switched to Ethier. All that munny on the table, I had to think conservatively, and so went with health/buyout/shorter contract/lower salary.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I guess. I go the other way if I'm shelling out THAT much money, though-- give me a shot at great (and great without platoon splits). I mean, it's not like Ethier's on a cheap 2-year deal, y'know?

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I think if we were gonna go get Ethier the time to do so was before we went and signed Grandyman to a similar contract to serve a similar role. They are more comparable to one another than Kemp is to Ethier.

We could always make room for Kemp but thinking now his price would be higher in terms of what we'd have to give up, so I'd need to think about it.

[Frayed Knot]

And Kemp's tattoo is a big downside to be considered.

[TransMonk]

Kemp.

Have you ever looked into his eyes? It was like the first time I heard the Beatles.

[smg58]

Haven't decided. Either is a much safer bet, but a healthy Kemp makes us contenders.

[MFS62]

smg58 wrote: Haven't decided. Either is a much safer bet, but a healthy Kemp makes us contenders.

This, especially the "haven't decided" part.
I think either of them are expensive redundancies. There are other holes to fill.
Gun to head, I'd go for Kemp. But since that gun isn't pointed at me now, I'll wait to see Sandy's other moves, then see which of them compliments that team better.

Later

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Y'know, now that I think about it, I don't know why we traded for Piazza, when we had a perfectly good catcher already.

You can get a guy like Kemp at a discount, you get a guy like Kemp.

[Edgy MD]

But since that gun isn't pointed at me now...

Actually, no. Turn around slowly. Even more slowly than that. This gun is, in fact pointed at your head. You must answer now and live.

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: But since that gun isn't pointed at me now... Actually, no. Turn around slowly. Even more slowly than that. This gun is, in fact pointed at your head. You must answer now and live.

OK, Kemp.

Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

I'd ask ol' Ned about the 25 year old that's poised to be next year's biggest free agent if he doesn't re-up with the Dodgers. Cause it don't hurt to ask.

[Fman99]

Kemp. All that money getting shelled out, you might as well at least hope for greatness instead of goodness.

[Benjamin Grimm]

batmagadanleadoff wrote:

Whoever is doing these needs to know that you don't put action shots on a 1972 card! (Unless it's a red IN ACTION card.)

[Gwreck]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: I'd ask ol' Ned about the 25 year old that's poised to be next year's biggest free agent if he doesn't re-up with the Dodgers. Cause it don't hurt to ask.

No, it doesn't hurt to ask. Of course we all know what the answer would be.

If for some reason the Dodgers don't sign him to an extension (which they will) it would be incredible to see the market for him.

[Gwreck]

But to bring this back on topic:

LWFS has the right idea. Viable MVP candidates aren't available at a discount very often. You take Kemp.

[metsmarathon]

definitely kemp. the back end of the contract is onerous, but i think he's a better shot at making up for it.

especially if he's moved from center field to right. his range in center isn't great, and between lagares and young, we've got good defense in center already on the roster. so you could look to get a boost to his existing numbers from that switch alone. maybe you recover as much as a win each season...?

ethier isn't a great defender either. and while he's more consistent, he'll consistently give you 2-3 wins. whereas kemp will give you anywhere from 1-8 wins, and should be on the high side of that when he's ever healthy.

for hte record, per fangraphs numbers, ethier has never had a season where the value of his production exceeded $15M, whereas kemp has had two such seasons.

kemp has, granted, a much better chance of turning into a massive bust, due to the injury factor. so i might look to getting some cash money thrown at the deal, preferably towards hte end of the contract if the dodgers would be amenable to such a thing.

also consider, ethier's contract equals/exceeds that of granderson's, and granderson is the better player.

[Edgy MD]

I don't know. I guess I'm alone on this, but yeah, while Kemp had one MVP quality season in 2011, Matt Kemp on the DL is worth no more or less than... Omar Quintanilla on the DL --- absolute bupkis. And a physically compromised star is no fun either. Health counts!

WAR the last four years:

Kemp
-1.1
8.1
2.4
0.5
---
9.9

Ethier
1.9
2.4
3.8
2.7
---
10.8

[seawolf17]

Kemp.

[Vic Sage]

WAR the last SIX years:

Kemp
3.9
4.8
-1.1
8.1
2.4
0.5
---
17.6

Ethier
2.2
2.9
1.9
2.4
3.8
2.7
---
15.9

WAR the last FIVE years:

Kemp
4.8
-1.1
8.1
2.4
0.5
---
13.7

Ethier
2.9
1.9
2.4
3.8
2.7
---
13.7

WAR the last THREE years:

Kemp
8.1
2.4
0.5
---
11.0

Ethier
2.4
3.8
2.7
---
8.9

[Edgy MD]

So, everybody but me wants Kemp. I made up a BS package of den Dekker, Murphy, and Montero. But what actual package would you give up for him? Would you demand some money back as well?

[nymr83]

Edgy MD wrote: So, everybody but me wants Kemp. I made up a BS package of den Dekker, Murphy, and Montero. But what actual package would you give up for him? Would you demand some money back as well?

If we're paying that contract, they aren't getting Montero. We'll send them Kirk Niewenhuis and a bag of balls (used, dirty ones) and they can thank us for taking that thing off their hands.

On the other hand, if they wanted to pay half his salary... Murphy, Montero, and Nimmo?

[Edgy MD]

Gosh, that's a tough bullet to bite. Half salary even.`

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Leave aside your affinity for faces to which you've gotten accustomed... that's an ex-MVP for the price of Murphy and two somewhat-highly-prized-but-not-can't-miss minor leaguers. An ex-MVP for the yearly salary of aged Bartolo Colon.

[Edgy MD]

I'm just not so sure that Kemp is so can't-missy.

But as philosophically trade-averse as I am, I guess I shouldn't cling to Montie as tightly as Syndie.

Oh, Montie!

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

He's pretty Raffishly appealing, I know.