why do we suck?

[Vic Sage]

so i was curious why we are where we are, at this point.

I assumed it was our pitching. It's not. We are in the middle of the pack, both home and on the road, by most measures. So the pitching hasn't been GOOD, but it hasn't been terrible, overall.

I looked at our hitting. ON the road, we score like the Yankees, near the top of the heap. But at home, we are the worst team in the NL, 2nd worst in baseball only to Seattle.

So it seems pretty clear that our inability to score at home has been this season's main culprit. That's not based on HR rate, which even at Citi is middle of the pack or so.

So to what do you owe our inability to score runs at home, even after moving in the fences this year? Is it just random? I'm inclined to think so, but i'd be interested in other theories.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: So to what do you owe our inability to score runs at home, even after moving in the fences this year? Is it just random? I'm inclined to think so, but i'd be interested in other theories.

It's been a weird season. They scored some early, but by June it was tailing off. the Mets underperformed that month, and it was the offense's fault. Best ERA in the league (bullpen was a tick better than league average if I recall) but just didn't score enough runs.


I want to say power, but I'm not even sure. (they don't need to find a one-dimensional slugger, but they probably need to replace one of the 0-2 HR position guys with someone that's gonna hit 15-20) we went from 6th last year to 10th this year in runs scored in the NL. we were top 2 in OBP last year. Sure, we lost Beltran and Reyes, but I expected an uptick in power to at least match the run scoring. Maybe that was short sighted, especially after we swapped Pagan for Torres. Ruben doesn't hit for power, and has shown very little improvement over last year. Thole's taken a step back to where he's actually a bad offensive player this year, compared to at least keeping the line moving last year.

And everyone's been so freaking streaky! Besides David, who's not having a great second half but at least seems to still sorta getting hits here and there and bases here and there, I think every other regular has gone through stretches where they're like 0-20. I'm sure some of that's bad luck, and just an oddity, but when on any given day you're playing with 23-24 outs, it hurts. This is kind of what I was arguing in another thread about Davis. Since he's sorta gotten it together, he's really minimized the 0-20s and games where he swings and misses at 4 pitches an AB. And he seems capable of running into one for some runs even when he's struggling. They need to work on minimizing these lows. I like Dave Hudgens, but he's got a lot of work to do.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

At some point, David Wright went missing and Mike Baxter became our best offensive player. That's one thing.

As for the shitty-at-home factor: I think its a manifestation of the team's lack of confidence in itself. They know they bring less gunpowder to the park every day that the touring clubs do and it depresses them and makes them stink. Also having the Wilpons around probably bothers them.

[MFS62]

Could the difference between the hitting numbers at home and on the road be because of the hitting background?
I don't have the numbers, but you must have looked at them, Vic.

Later

[Guest themetfairy]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Also having the Wilpons around probably bothers them.

This

[Vic Sage]

MFS62 wrote: Could the difference between the hitting numbers at home and on the road be because of the hitting background? I don't have the numbers, but you must have looked at them, Vic. Later

i don't know what numbers one could look at to say its the hitting background. Visiting teams don't seem to have a problem hitting here. I mean, its not a hitter's park overall, but its not the Kingdome either. And the Mets pitching numbers are roughly equivalent in their mediocrity at home and on the road. So i don't get the split.

And all the points ceetar makes (even if true) do not explain the extreme home/away split either. that the team doesn't like being near the Wilpons (and, of course, "CAHNFidence") are the closest to a theory that's been proposed, beyond the randomness that haunts baseball in a way most fans and NO ONE in the media wants to acknowledge.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I mostly was joking about the Wilpon thing but I think its possible that the notion of the Mets just not being as good as their opponents is reinforced by playing in front of fans who also aren't buying it. Not to say they are frauds, but I mean, its objectively true that they haven't got the talent to play with the Washingtons and Atlantas of the league and their fans know it.

[Frayed Knot]

There also seems to be some truth to the concept of different parts of the game taking turns at sucking and therefore sinking the team in different spots. And, yeah, while you can claim some version of this with just about any team, this NYM season seemed particularly vulnerable to each aspect of the team killing their chances at various times.

- Early on it was the bullpen. Not just bad but almost unbelievably bad to the point where not only were leads blown but potential catch-up games were lost as 1 and 2 run deficits turned into insurmountable 5 and 6 run gaps. It both killed what was, at that time, a pretty good starting staff (minus Pelfrey) but also the offense which was near the top in OBA pile.

- Post ASG it became the starters. Gee was lost for the season; Santana, even before he was officially lost, was essentially lost; and even Dickey became just merely good for a stretch and not the near automatic win he was both before and since.

- And starting around August 1st it became the offense. Wright went from MVP co-fave to ordinary; Duda & Nieuwy stopped slugging and then stopped playing; Murph went into long funks; Tejada slid back a bit; Thole went from meh to to 'I wish I could hit like Ordonez'; and Torres, leaned on even more with the subtraction of Duda-huis, saw his minimal contributions sink even lower. Meanwhile the starters have (mostly) bounced back and the pen has been -- dare I say it? -- Good!

[seawolf17]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I mostly was joking about the Wilpon thing but I think its possible that the notion of the Mets just not being as good as their opponents is reinforced by playing in front of fans who also aren't buying it. Not to say they are frauds, but I mean, its objectively true that they haven't got the talent to play with the Washingtons and Atlantas of the league and their fans know it.

I often wonder how deep "truth" runs about the "difficulty" of playing in NYC. I'm not talking about we, the Poolers, the intelligentsia of Mets fandom... I'm talking about the whackadoodles who tweet to suggest that Jon Rauch kill himself after he gives up a run. You think that happens in KC or Cleveland? Probably not at this volume. Have they booed Reyes in Florida yet? First 0-for-4 in April here if he signed that deal with us instead and there'd be people ready to put him on the next plane to the DR. That's gotta be grating on guys, no?

[ashie62]

The Wilpons cause us to suck.

[Edgy MD]

There's definitely a crisis of confidence we're witnessing. Trust me, I also have trouble scoring at home, so I know whereof I speak.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't imagine it would swing more than a handful of games, but could it be that when the Mets play to tie on the road (like bunting the tying run to second when down by one in the ninth) they're less likely to win?

Perhaps what I'm trying to ask is: when Terry goes "by the book" at home, is it more damaging than when he does so on the road?

[Centerfield]

The offense sucks. They are 22nd in runs scored in MLB.

Our lineup has no one with an OPS in the 900's. Our clean up hitter is at .752, and it took an incredible surge (mostly after we were out of it) to even get it that high. Our #5 hitter (Duda) is at .716. Jason Bay is at .546. We are lucky Scott Hairston played over his head to an .805 OPS or else we really would have sucked. Even our feel good story at SS is under .700 in OPS. Murphy has a nice looking BA, but his OPS remains in the low .700's.

I thought our pitching was pretty good but we are 19th in MLB in staff ERA. This is surprising. I thought we had a pretty good rotation and the bullpen has been solid lately. I'm surprised to see this.

So to sum up, we have shitty hitters and below average pitchers.

I think the staff is pretty close to being a playoff caliber staff, so maybe just re-stock some bullpen arms and we will be in good shape for 2013.

The offense is miles away from being competitive.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: The offense is miles away from being competitive.

Are they? It's easy to get fed up with guys, but Murphy and Thole and Duda have all shown signs of being better. Is it a stretch to think that one or more of them could do that, and the other guys get replaced by guys that will? It's baseball. Sometimes miles away is really inches. it's a balancing act for Sandy to figure out which guys are going to bounce back, and which ones are going to..well, need replacing.

While I don't think guys quit, I think once the Mets were basically out of it guys started having different approaches and tinkering a bit (the whole Thole as pull hitter thing)

Maybe there's something to home. more media? more homeward responsibilities, lackluster crowd? It's probably just randomness though. It may be the pitchers park thing? I suspect that after a half season or so of success for some possibly limited players with big holes in their games, opposing scouting reports caught on. They played division rival playoff teams in WSH and ATL after the break and they would've been scouting the hardest. pitchers were able to exploit the exposed weaknesses in the hitters, who weren't able to re-adjust. Citi Field being a little more pitcher friendly make it more apparent.

They also stopped wanting to get beat by David Wright so through him progressively less pitches in the zone, and as the Mets sunk maybe he started swinging at more and more of them trying to force the issue.

I do believe a lot of the "he's tired" reports are more of the mental variety associated with losing. I think Ruben or Daniel probably doesn't say anything in a pennant race, goes to bed an hour earlier and has another red bull. The adrenaline and fun of playing meaningful baseball probably helps too.

[metsmarathon]

clearly, citi field needs bluer walls. or maybe a more positive vibe. dunno.

[TransMonk]

Ceetar wrote: Are they?

Yes. Rather than miles I would say at least 3 or 4 players away.

The offense is not good. Do some of the players have the potential to someday be better than they are now? Maybe. But mostly, I think we are seeing what we've got to give.

The starting pitching was good in the beginning of the year, but even when the team was over .500, the bullpen was one of the worst in the MLB. Now that the bullpen has evened out, the starters are falling back to mediocre.

There is maybe a small amount of fan and media influence that is causing them to press at home, but I think it is mostly coincidence.

Edited September 10, 2012 by Guest

[Centerfield]

Duda I am willing to give you. He had such a promising 300 AB's last year, I thought he had the potential to really turn into a middle of the lineup guy. But he has taken a huge step back this year. Which is not to say you should give up on a young player after a bad year, but he is certainly far from being a known commodity.

Murphy has had 1500 AB's in the majors. He is what he is. He's a pretty good hitter for average who does not get on base enough to justify his lack of power. He doesn't hit well enough to justify his poor fielding. He is one of these guys that will bounce around and some team will take a flyer on him. Once in a while he may find the right situation and find his way to a .800 OPS season, but he is not someone you build a team around.

Thole? I will grant you that Thole has been better, but he has never been anything approaching good. Plus he is getting worse as time goes by.

I may be exaggerating a bit but I feel like this entire team except Wright and Davis is made of guys who would be batting 7th or 8th on a championship level team.

[Ceetar]

Murphy isn't that bad a fielder all in all. He's hardly been disastrous at any rate, and if he could put up his career rates that's actually a solid piece. 1500AB is a lot, but it's also only three seasons or so, and a segmented bit at that. I wouldn't be surprised if what we've seen this year is a floor of sorts for Murphy. He's 9th in OPS of qualifying players and his career numbers would have him 6th. He appears to be a student of hitting and If i had to bet on one guy improving and maintaining it, it'd probably be Danny.

Thole..I dunno, a guy that's going to get on base like he did before this year is valuable as a catcher. It's not the traditional bopper, sure, but not making outs is nice. Not having a hole in the lineup is nice. He's 18/44 in OBP from 2010-2012, but he's just way down this year. Concussion? I dunno, even if you think Thole sucks, do 25 year old players just vanish like that? He's basically Jason Bay since returning from the concussion except with a couple more singles and when he happens to hit one hard it's a double instead of a homer. .219/.270/.257 over 210 AB. 14/32 BB/K where he was 66/77 before this season.

I'm a little wary of Tejada's lack of progress though.

[Edgy MD]

I never know what to do with the "how many players away?" question. That depends on your feel for who is a good bet to improve and who is a good bet to jettison. The 1983 Mets were dead last in runs in the National League. Davey Johnson replaced Brian Giles with Wally Backman --- a past-due prospect at that point who Johnson had to talk out of quitting a year prior --- and they climbed up to sixth out of 12. One change in the whole lineup. (Well, on second thought, 1.7. He also replaced Hodges/Ortiz with Fitzgerald/Hodges.)

Maybe they are four players away. I think the main change they need in the offseason is find the best outfielder that they can afford, and if they pull that off, I'm signing on.

[Centerfield]

I think implied in the "X players away" statements are the idea that if a current player turns into one of the players they are lacking, then they lack one less player.

So if the Mets are 4 players away and the Looney Tunes martians return Jason Bay's ability back to him, we will be 3 players away.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: I think implied in the "X players away" statements are the idea that if a current player turns into one of the players they are lacking, then they lack one less player. So if the Mets are 4 players away and the Looney Tunes martians return Jason Bay's ability back to him, we will be 3 players away.

Also sometimes that player is simply a more solid backup guy, or a real good pinch hitter, or something. People seem to underemphasize how much some bit players can add.

[Fman99]

I blame Obamacare.

[seawolf17]

Fman99 wrote: I blame Obamacare.

Did the Wilpons even realize they could save money by not offering the players health care? They should try that.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

Fman99 wrote: I blame Obamacare.

When I saw that Fman had added a post to a thread called "why do we suck?" I was expecting something gross.

[Vic Sage]

Centerfield wrote: The offense sucks. They are 22nd in runs scored in MLB. Our lineup has no one with an OPS in the 900's. Our clean up hitter is at .752, and it took an incredible surge (mostly after we were out of it) to even get it that high. Our #5 hitter (Duda) is at .716. Jason Bay is at .546. We are lucky Scott Hairston played over his head to an .805 OPS or else we really would have sucked. Even our feel good story at SS is under .700 in OPS. Murphy has a nice looking BA, but his OPS remains in the low .700's. I thought our pitching was pretty good but we are 19th in MLB in staff ERA. This is surprising. I thought we had a pretty good rotation and the bullpen has been solid lately. I'm surprised to see this. So to sum up, we have shitty hitters and below average pitchers. I think the staff is pretty close to being a playoff caliber staff, so maybe just re-stock some bullpen arms and we will be in good shape for 2013. The offense is miles away from being competitive.

granted to all of this, but why would the hitters be relatively productive on the road (4th overall, 2nd in the NL to SF) and just god awful at home (next to last overall, dead last in NL)? No one has given me a theory with even a hint of plausibility beyond random chance. and maybe there isn't one.

[Edgy MD]

But with a sample size that big, it's certainly worth exploring.

[Fman99]

Edgy DC wrote: But with a sample size that big, it's certainly worth exploring.

That's what she said.

[Centerfield]

Vic Sage wrote: Centerfield wrote: The offense sucks. They are 22nd in runs scored in MLB. Our lineup has no one with an OPS in the 900's. Our clean up hitter is at .752, and it took an incredible surge (mostly after we were out of it) to even get it that high. Our #5 hitter (Duda) is at .716. Jason Bay is at .546. We are lucky Scott Hairston played over his head to an .805 OPS or else we really would have sucked. Even our feel good story at SS is under .700 in OPS. Murphy has a nice looking BA, but his OPS remains in the low .700's. I thought our pitching was pretty good but we are 19th in MLB in staff ERA. This is surprising. I thought we had a pretty good rotation and the bullpen has been solid lately. I'm surprised to see this. So to sum up, we have shitty hitters and below average pitchers. I think the staff is pretty close to being a playoff caliber staff, so maybe just re-stock some bullpen arms and we will be in good shape for 2013. The offense is miles away from being competitive. granted to all of this, but why would the hitters be relatively productive on the road (4th overall, 2nd in the NL to SF) and just god awful at home (next to last overall, dead last in NL)? No one has given me a theory with even a hint of plausibility beyond random chance. and maybe there isn't one.

You know, it's odd. I just looked up the individual numbers. Out of the regulars that I checked, only Davis has stark differences (.582, .893). Tejada and Wright are both about a 100 points better away, but the rest are about what you'd expect. It's odd.

Maybe CitiField just sucks. It still is a great pitcher's park and it's hard to hit it out opposite field to RF. This park would have messed with Piazza a lot.

[metsmarathon]

my money is on a negative atmosphere pervading the fanbase and the whole damned building.

its possible that there's a hangover effect from the old walls, i suppose, where they still seem formidable to the players who had played there before, but i think its more likely to be a big ol negativity cloud thing.

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: But with a sample size that big, it's certainly worth exploring.

don't get fooled, it IS a small sample size.

Mets through June 4th, or 31 games, were scoring 4.05 runs a game at home. (19-12 record) On the season, 68 games, 3.54. 30-38.

It's really just a weird timing about when a streaky team ended up sucking.