I'm concerned. ... About the future.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

So I've been lying here... drifting ... thinking about Sandy's interview on the FAN the other evening, the one where he said there'd be no Harvey this weekend, he'd be unlikely to trade for hot properties at the deadline and that the bullpen would be a good fix but admitted it was all a giant crapshoot. And along with the poor stretch of recent play, the underlying message was: Wait till 2013 or 2014.

But really, what are we getting then? Let's say it all works out and we can slide Harvey and Wheeler into the Gee and Santana slots, or whatever. Let's say Pelfrey comes back and Niese and Dickey hang around and looks to be a decent bet we'll continue to field a decent starting 'ro. Let's be even more optimistic and figure that Mejia, Parnell, Ramirez, Edgin etc. combine for an actual decent bullpen. I can imagine that much.

Now the question is: Where's the offense coming from?

How committed can we be to Duda? Optimists like me had him at 30 home runs but he's looking like a 20-HR guy. That's a big difference, especially for a right fielder who can't play right field. He's not the worst bet to improve but, geez. I dunno yet.

Left field and center field are even bigger questions. It's plainly obvious Bay won't be part of the next great Mets team and Nieuwy has shown some ability but also looks like he'll whiff too much as an everyday player. Does he improve? Den Dekker appears as though he'll have similar profile if he even gets as far as Nieuwy. We could use an outfielder or two who can hit, that's for sure, but where are they coming from?

Davis? I guess at his best he's something between the ghastly slumper we saw early his year and the masher he's been for brief periods of hotness. I think he is what the is, a kind of Adam LaRoche type, not the kind of guy to build an offense around. He's also on pace for closer to 20 HRs than 30.

Tejada is a keeper. Good player!

I'd do what it takes to re-sign Wright in any scenario, worst case he moves over to first base after 3 more years.

I don't believe Muffy is a longterm solution at second base, and there are plenty of good questions about Valdespin, and even a healthy Reese Havens isn't knocking on the door anymore.

I think the time is running out on Thole being a real net positive behind the dish, only OK on D and a decent LH singles hitter, he really looks like a backup/platoon guy.

What I'm trying to say here is Alderson's no dummy, he knows this as well as we should at this point, and if he's really building toward 2013 and '14 he's still several pieces shy. Up to 3 outfielders, a second baseman and a catcher shy, and it's not like they're stacked up at AAA right now.

I think he's going to have to try and find some more offensive prospects in the trade market is what he have to do. Beltran for Wheeler was only a good start.

Right? Where do we go from here?

[metirish]

Up to 3 outfielders, a second baseman and a catcher shy, and it's not like they're stacked up at AAA right now.

yeah , need to go the FA route.....

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=177


some great outfield help but likely not coming here....not much in the potential FA 2nd basemen

not an easy task at all......

[Centerfield]

I'm with you on this. Outside of Wright, they don't have a regular player even approaching an .800 OPS. Several missing pieces here.

Of course, the Mets might one day remember they are a big market team and sign a free agent masher in the OF. That changes the game quite a bit. But if they are not planning to go this route, they've got a lot of holes to fill in.

I'm about done with Murphy.

[batmagadanleadoff]

The future is ...










plastics.

[bmfc1]

Well put JCL. A lot of food for thought. Some teams get a breakthrough hitter who wasn't on their radar. It doesn't appear that the Mets have any pleasant surprises at the moment.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Great future in plastics.

But even this 2-part interview with Jonah Hill reveals little plastic on its way from the minors, unless you mind waiting for a 16-year-old shortstop German Rosario (and 19-year-old OF Nimmo, who's not mentioned).

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/51829/part-i-depo-discussses-prospects-farm-draft

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/51834/part-ii-depo-talks-prospects-farm-draft

[Vic Sage]

i said most of this in the pre-season prediction threads, so obviously i concur when most of it has proved out so far. (i even made that Davis/LaRoche comparison i think). And i'm not sold on Tejada as a .320 hitter quite yet either, though he is a good defensive SS with a good approach at the plate.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

I don't necessarily buy Tejada as a high-average guy. But a durable high-OBP guy with decent defense? That's a guy who signs for $8-10M a year on the open market. That's a guy you can pencil into your starting lineup (and leadoff slot) for a half-decade, at least.

On the FA market... Napoli intrigues, doesn't he? (As a catching bat AND right-handed compliment to Ike every third day or so.) And what about, say, bringing Pagan back on a 2-year deal?

Duda should probably go in trade for more arms, or middle-infield prospects. (If Sandy weren't worried about the ticket market floor dropping out earlier this year, he might have gone already.)

[Ceetar]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: I don't necessarily buy Tejada as a high-average guy. But a durable high-OBP guy with decent defense? That's a guy who signs for $8-10M a year on the open market. That's a guy you can pencil into your starting lineup (and leadoff slot) for a half-decade, at least.

He's had hot stretches before, and tailed off too. Let's see where he finishes. and durable? well..we'll see. This year, not so much.

I think all of Duda, Murphy, Tejada, Thole, Davis are on some sort of audition this season. If they were all, or most, for real, the Mets could definitely make the playoffs. But Alderson will have to make some upgrade decisions somewhere.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

OK, so if I'm trying and assemble some position players through our current fleet I've got Duda, Muffy, Bay, Santana, Torres, Rauch, Francisco and Young on the trade block, just to start. Others?

[TransMonk]

Here's the way I see it:

2012 - Fun, surprising, but overacheiving team. Hope to finfish .500. Re-up David in the offseason.

2013 - Harvey comes up, the young kids on offense get one more year to prove they can be everyday players. Maybe a deadline deal if the team is as good. Hope to play meaningful games in September.

2014 - Wheeler comes up. The Bay and Santana contracts go away (somewhat offset by Wright, but there will be more cash than there is now). Fred opens up the checkbook to find FA replacements for the youngish players that aren't quite cutting it. Hopefully, Harvey, Wheeler, Niese (maybe Dickey) is as good as anything the Nats throw up. Hope to content for the division.

If Tejada, Thole, Duda, Davis, Newie, etc. aren't the answers by the end of next year, then they could be replaced, but I think they all get the opportunity to succeed in 2013.

Murphy is the wildcard. His being traded would never surprise me. Even if it were today.

Also, I would love to someday have Beato, Parnell and Mejia in the bullpen and feel REALLY good about it. But bullpens are a tough group to predict.

[ashie62]

1. Sell whatever you can in the next two weeks...Muffy....Hairston....

2. F/A Market

Then you might have something like this lineup below...You could find a 2B that can play second and a bona-fide OF Slugging threat in the F/A market....Justin Upton is supposedly available by trade.

1B Davis
2B ?
3B Wright
SS Tejada
LF Bay or SLUGGER
CF Den Dekker
RF Duda
C Thole

Flores is a ways off as a corner..

[bmfc1]

With the ? at 2B, you could put Jordany there but Sandy said the other day that he sees JV as an OF.

[ashie62]

You could..I was thinking a really good glove to much with Tejada and picking up a true top shelf bomber for the offense.

Granted, that is difficult but can be done...

Alderson seems to be well versed in the art of deception. I have no real feeling for where he is coming from...

[Benjamin Grimm]

If they could trade Bay and Santana they'd free up a lot of spending cash. Bay will be impossible to trade -- I suspect he'll be released before the end of spring training next year -- but I bet if they floated Santana over the next week or so they'd find some interest. Of course, that means a big step back for the remainder of 2012, but the way they've been playing lately they're looking less and less like they'll be serious contenders.

[Vic Sage]

i'd be all about moving Santana before the deadline if i thought that (1) they'd get back actual prospects or players, rather than just dump salary, and (2) reinvest any salary savings in quality FAs, but i think the Wilpons would take next to nothing just to dump his salary and then put the savings in their pocket. so no thanks.

[bmfc1]

VS: Outstanding. They'd justify doing that with some nonsense about making up for losses in attendance or other revenue.

[Ceetar]

They're not moving Santana. The return they'd get is practically nothing, and you can never have too much starting pitching. particularly top of the line pitching. Harvey and Wheeler are still closer to pipedreams than mainstays in the 2013 or 2014 rotation.

[Benjamin Grimm]

They'd move him to free up millions of dollars, not because of the player they'd get back.

[Frayed Knot]

Ashie62 wrote: 1. Sell whatever you can in the next two weeks...Muffy....Hairston.... 2. F/A Market Then you might have something like this lineup below...You could find a 2B that can play second and a bona-fide OF Slugging threat in the F/A market....Justin Upton is supposedly available by trade. 1B Davis 2B ? 3B Wright SS Tejada LF Bay or SLUGGER CF Den Dekker RF Duda C Thole Flores is a ways off as a corner..

But the whole point about this thread was to question how good are the likes of Davis, Tejada, Den Dekker, Duda, and Thole (either now or in the future) so this lineup is at least as iffy as the one we're wondering about now - and that's before we even get to "?" at 2B and "Slugger" in LF.
Dealing Muffy and Hairston isn't going to net much.



Yes, I think we're going to have to go outside the org for offense. Ideally SOME of the young parts we have now will blossom into above average ML players; the key is to figure out which ones and sell on the others, hopefully to someone who believes more in the guy we're selling than we do.
I remember the mid-90s Yanx opting to keep Bernie Williams over Gerald Williams. It wasn't a popular decision at the time or even necessarily the obvious one, but it was clearly the right one in the long run and even though they didn't really get much for GW (although Graeme Lloyd helped them win the '96 WS) such decisions are often what make or break a team.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I guess if there's a Williams-Williams equivalent with this club it could be Duda-Davis. Let's just say Sandy decides he can only have 1 high-whiff lefty slugger and he'll be a first base. Who will have the better numbers in the coming years? That's a kinda tough decision.

[nymr83]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I guess if there's a Williams-Williams equivalent with this club it could be Duda-Davis. Let's just say Sandy decides he can only have 1 high-whiff lefty slugger and he'll be a first base. Who will have the better numbers in the coming years? That's a kinda tough decision.

If you decide that Duda's bat will never be good enough to justify his sub-par defensive presense in the outfield then you may get stuck with just that decision. And i don't know who i'd pick.

[Edgy MD]

They've got three secondbasemen and half a dozen outfielders in the pipeline who might make a splash, depending on what you consider Valdespin to be. I'm sticking with the plan.

Duda will fascinate and scare me every day. He seems so awkward and shy of the spotlight. And he may be one of those guys who stats smacking the ball the minute his team becomes comfortably irrelevant.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: They'd move him to free up millions of dollars, not because of the player they'd get back.

yeah, but that's conspiracy theory stuff and hard to predict/guess/know what they're thinking/planning. So I'll stick to the baseball viewpoint.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Okay, the baseball viewpoint: Santana may be gone before July 31.

[duan]

I don't know, I think there's a lot we know in 7/8 days and I'm prepared to wait to figure it out.

[Edgy MD]

Nymr83 wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: I guess if there's a Williams-Williams equivalent with this club it could be Duda-Davis. Let's just say Sandy decides he can only have 1 high-whiff lefty slugger and he'll be a first base. Who will have the better numbers in the coming years? That's a kinda tough decision. If you decide that Duda's bat will never be good enough to justify his sub-par defensive presense in the outfield then you may get stuck with just that decision. And i don't know who i'd pick.

Davis in a heartbeat. And I LOVE my Duda.

But I'm not thinking it's going to come to an either/or thing. Independent decisions going forward.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Just for fun, will poll this

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Joel Sherman surfing this very wave.

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/roster_lacks_building_blocks_C8Cv2P6cmUiGkWisPqlEWK

[MFS62]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Joel Sherman surfing this very wave. http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/roster_lacks_building_blocks_C8Cv2P6cmUiGkWisPqlEWK

Sherman is to sportswriting what Tiny Tim was to singing.

Later