Tom Seaver Award

[Edgy MD]

Please vote for your top five Mets starying pitchers of 2011. They will be awarded five points for each first-place vote, four for each second-place vote, etc. He with most points after a week is awarded the Crane Pool Forum Tom Seaver Award for Outstanding Mets Starting Pitcher.

By my reckoning, nine Mets potentially qualify for this award: Miguel Batista, Chris Capuano, D.J. Carrasco, R.A. Dickey, Dillon Gee, Jonathon Niese, Mike Pelfrey, Chris Schwinden, and Chris Young.

Please vote so we may honor the most esteemed of the Mets' starters. Tweeters, please promote the vote.

	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	CG	SHO	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	BK	BF	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
Miguel Batista	2	0	1.000	2.42	4	4	0	1	1	0	26.00	18	7	7	0	12	0	12	2	0	106	1.154	4.2	1.00
Chris Capuano	11	12	.478	4.52	31	31	0	1	1	0	185.00	195	98	93	27	52	5	168	5	0	795	1.335	8.2	3.23
D.J. Carrasco	0	1	.000	7.36	1	1	0	0	0	0	3.67	4	3	3	3	3	0	2	1	0	18	1.909	4.9	0.67
R.A. Dickey	8	13	.381	3.29	32	32	0	1	0	0	207.67	201	85	76	18	54	2	133	9	1	872	1.228	5.8	2.46
Dillon Gee	13	6	.684	4.32	27	27	0	1	0	0	156..33	147	81	75	17	68	3	110	13	1	686	1.375	6.3	1.62
Jonathon Niese	11	11	.500	4.30	26	26	0	0	0	0	157.00	176	86	75	14	44	4	138	5	0	691	1.401	7.9	3.14
Mike Pelfrey	7	13	.350	4.70	33	33	0	2	0	0	193.33	218	110	101	21	65	7	105	7	2	857	1.464	4.9	1.62
Chris Schwinden	0	2	.000	4.71	4	4	0	0	0	0	21.00	23	13	11	1	6	2	17	1	0	95	1.381	7.3	2.83
Chris Young	1	0	1.000	1.88	4	4	0	0	0	0	24.00	12	5	5	3	11	0	22	1	0	95	0.958	8.3	2.00

[bmfc1]

1--Dickey
2--Gee
3--Niese
4--Capuano
5--Batista
10--Pelfrey

Edited October 16, 2011 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

My vote:

Dickey
Niese
Gee
Capuano
Pelfrey



And, if Schaefer votes count:

Schaefer wrote: Dickey Capuano Pelfrey Gee Niese

[Edgy MD]

The real challenge is deciding whether to seriously consider Young and Batista.

[seawolf17]

Dickey
Gee
Niese
Capuano
Young

[Gwreck]

Dickey
Capuano
Gee
Niese
Pelfrey

[bmfc1]

Edgy DC wrote: The real challenge is deciding whether to seriously consider Young and Batista.

You asked for five. With only nine candidates, and one of them is Pelfrey who I ranked as 10 out of 9, you have to consider all nine to fill the five slots.

Edited October 16, 2011 by Guest

[MFS62]

Dickey
Gee
Capuano
Niese
Young

Later

[Edgy MD]

Dickey
Capuano
Niese
Gee
Pelfrey

[smg58]

Dickey
Niese
Gee
Young
Batista

[G-Fafif]

1. Dickey
2. Capuano
3. Gee
4. Niese
5. Pelfrey

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Dickey
Niese
Gee
Capuano
Pelfrey

[Fman99]

Dickey
Gee
Niese
Capuano
Young

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Dickey
Niese
Capuano
Pelfrey
Gee

[Ceetar]

Dickey
Capuano
Pelfrey
Niese
Gee


My vote was heavily swayed towards IP. The best thing some of these guys did was keep Misch off the board.

[RealityChuck]

Dickey
Gee
Niese
Capuano
Pelfrey (only because we need to name five).

[metirish]

Dickey
Niese
Gee
Capuano
Pelfrey

[TransMonk]

Dickey
Niese
Gee
Capuano
Pelfrey

[HahnSolo]

Cap's numbers are actually better than my gut would have told me. And I didn't realize how close Gee's and Niese's numbers really are.


Dickey
Capuano
Niese
Gee


Pelf

[Guest attgig]

Niese
Dickey
Capuano
Gee
Young

[Theoldmole]

Dickey
Gee
Capuano
Niese
Pelfrey

[Vic Sage]

i think slots 1 & 5 are pretty clear; Dickey was the best SP we had this year, by just about any meaningful measure, and Pelfrey was the worst REGULAR starter. If, instead, you listed a guy in the 5th slot who had only a handful of starts because Pelfrey was just so awful, that's certainly your prerogative, but by that measure, I was the Mets' 5th best SPer, because i did way less damage than Pelfrey too.

2,3 and 4 are Capuano, Niese and Gee in some order, each of which is justifiable in one way or another. Niese had the best ERA and K/rate, but the highest WHIP. He started strong and weakened in the 2nd half before getting hurt. Gee was similar, starting strong and weakening, but with a better W-L record (for whatever that's worth), slightly better WHIP, tiny bit weaker ERA. He was harder to hit than Niese, but gave up more walks and had the worst K/rate and BB/K ratio. Capuano has the best WHIP, best k/rate and BB/K ratio, more IP and starts, though a slightly weaker ERA.

I guess i'd go with Capuano, based on his ratios and his IP, and overall importance to the rotation, with Niese and Gee a toss-up, but i'll lean to Niese because of his superior ratios. I don't think Gee showed the kind of dominant stuff Niese did on occasion, and the stats bear that out. Gee was effective in spots, but his W-L was, IMO, was a function of randomness rather than ability.

1) DICKEY
2) CAPUANO
3) NIESE
4) GEE
5) PELFREY

Edited October 17, 2011 by Guest

[Vic Sage]

Ceetar wrote: Dickey Capuano Pelfrey Niese Gee My vote was heavily swayed towards IP. The best thing some of these guys did was keep Misch off the board.

I would agree in principal, that IP matters, but when the guy giving you those innings is also the worst starter on the staff by any statistical measurement you want to make, then you have to adjust, it seems to me. Yes, Pelf had more IP than Niese or Gee (Niese got hurt and Gee came up late), but not THAT much more (about 6 more starts, at average of just under 6 IP per start) and he was significantly worse during those innings than either of those guys, any way you look at it.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: Ceetar wrote: Dickey Capuano Pelfrey Niese Gee My vote was heavily swayed towards IP. The best thing some of these guys did was keep Misch off the board. I would agree in principal, that IP matters, but when the guy giving you those innings is also the worst starter on the staff by any statistical measurement you want to make, then you have to adjust, it seems to me. Yes, Pelf had more IP than Niese or Gee (Niese got hurt and Gee came up late), but not THAT much more (about 6 more starts, at average of just under 6 IP per start) and he was significantly worse during those innings than either of those guys, any way you look at it.

Depends where you assign the most value. by rWAR Cap had 1.7, Gee 1.6, Pelf 1.4, and Niese 1.3. Those are all pretty close. The Mets had no pitching depth, which is why I was valuing IP a little more than normal. Batista ended up doing okay, but I expected worse were the Mets to need another starter in July. Had the team stayed healthy and on the field in the infield, I think the defense would've been much improved, which helps out Pelfrey the most.

[metsmarathon]

using my proprietary marathon points metric, i offer the following ranking of metly starting pitchers:

dickey 288.5

capuano 118.3
niese 115.2
gee 112.6

pelfrey 83.3

batista sits at 75 with young at 62.

thanks to the quirkiness of schaefer voting, i actually awarded pelfrey the 2nd most schaefer votes of any starting pitcher. which basically means that he was both really good and really bad. not what you really want to rely upon.

[dgwphotography]

Dickey
Niese
Gee
Capuano
Pelfrey

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

More strikeouts, fewer walks, a slightly better home run rate, and a lot less luck with seeing-eye grounders (Niese gave up fewer line drives and flies, but a much higher BABIP, .331-to-.272). Jon Niese is NO Dillon Gee... he's a young, better Capuano, and was the second-best pitcher in the rotation on the year, better enough than Capuano-- who was solid in his own way, and did have that one magical pre-hurricane evening in August-- to make up for the innings-pitched difference.

In fact, if you look under the hood, Gee's numbers are lot more Pelfy than you may remember... except with less strikeouts, about as many walks (in fewer innings), and a lot more BABIP luck. Pelf edges him out in my ledger because he gave the same performance, only more of it.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. has determined, using a proprietary and highly suspect algorithm which accounts for both win probability and playing time, that the five metropolitan starting pitchers who performed the best are as follows and in descending order:

dickey
pelfrey
young
batista
niese

the formula m.e.t.b.o.t. used is as follows:

score = (500 * adjPT) + adjWPA

adjPT = adjusted playing time = 100 * adjPT%
adjPT% = adjusted percentage of playing time
adjWPA = adjusted win probability added

adjusted win probability added is the formula by which m.e.t.b.o.t. determines the appropriate amount of schaefer votes to distribute, using base win probability data and adjusting for defensive errors and web gems.

adjusted playing time percentage is described as {[(0.9*innings pitched) / 1448] + [(0.1*defensive innings for non pitchers)/1448] + [(plate appearances / 6335)]} / 2

m.e.t.b.o.t. presumes that pitching accounts for 90% of defense. the denominators in the above equation of 1448 innings pitched and 6335 plate appearances are the total innings pitched and plate appearances for the metropolitans in 2011.

by crediting players with their playing time, m.e.t.b.o.t. is not forced to make the assertion that metropolitan first baseman val pascucci, who accrued 0.006 WPA in his 11 plate appearances and 7 defensive innings was a greater performer than metropolitan pitcher r.a. dickey, who accrued -1515 WPA in 208.67 innings pitched and 69 plate appearances.

[Frayed Knot]

Dickey
Capuano
Gee
Niese
Pelfrey

[Benjamin Grimm]

bump