Don't trade Reyes

[Ceetar]

G-Fafif wrote: I just talked to an impartial observer who would rather expose himself to dangerous levels of pollen than the 2011 version of Jeter.

You could probably make the case that you'd get more production from Luis Castillo than Jeter.

[Ceetar]

If the Yankees had just signed Jeter this year Yankees fans would be chasing him out of town already to a chorus of boos.


Regardless, Reyes is awesome. I want to watch him be awesome year after year after year. 40 years from now I want to watch him do a silly handshake with David Wright at an old-timers game.

[Guest Vince Coleman Firecracker]

I keep seeing Reyes' career numbers brought up to push the idea he's not that great a player/he's not an on-base guy/etc. The problem with using his career numbers is that they include his first 1254 PAs in the majors, when he was a very different (and much lesser) player. Compare:

Jose Reyes, age 20-22:

1254 PA/ .277 BA/ .303 OBP/ .395 SLG/ .698 OBP/ 83 OPS+/ 3.22 K:BB

Jose Reyes, age 23-28:

3265 PA/ .293 BA/ .351 OBP/ .455 SLG/ .806 OBP/ 112 OPS+/ 1.30 K:BB

This is a guy that very clearly made a pretty drastic adjustment to his approach to major league pitching early in his career and has never looked back. Now, you could argue that he doesn't make this adjustment without seeing a thousand major league plate appearances, but you could also argue that he just didn't belong in the majors as early as he was brought up. Either way, it's not all that fair to consider Reyes' career numbers as that accurate an assessment of his value when nearly a third of his career was, essentially, OJT.

[seawolf17]

Ceetar wrote: Reyes is awesome. I want to watch him be awesome year after year after year. 40 years from now I want to watch him do a silly handshake with David Wright at an old-timers game.

See, that's it. Jeter is an apt comparison in that respect, in that Reyes and Wright could be LEGENDARY with us, paying financial dividends well past their playing days with us as old guys bringing our kids and grandkids.

[Guest The Second Spitter]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Trying to sell shirts really weakens the impact of the message.

I'd love to understand the logic behind this pearl of wisdom.

Edited June 8, 2011 by Guest

[Guest Edgy DC]

Gwreck wrote: Edgy DC wrote: It's a fact that players perform misleadingly well in contract years. Maybe, but Reyes is also going to be 28 years old on Saturday and finally completely healthy after some injury shortened seasons. That alone is more than enough reason for a player to put up a "misleadingly" good season.

I was joking. lol and rofl and pmsl and shit.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The Second Spitter wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Trying to sell shirts really weakens the impact of the message. I'd love to understand the logic behind this pearl of wisdom.

You could try I suppose. I'm just saying they have motivation$ that go beyond the sentiment on the banner, who's to say they whether they believe in the cause or are just trying to sell shirts?

[Guest The Second Spitter]

Gwreck wrote: A second theory (perhaps more farfetched) is that Jose likes being in a place where he is automatically revered by the fans and that might be worth "something" as well.

Not farfetched at all. Just like there are some destinations I believe he won't consider, like Philadelphia, where he is a subject of clubhouse ridicule.

Jose strikes me as a "confidence player" (a term I'm not particularly fond of, but I digress) -- he's not the sort of guy that can play somewhere he doesn't feel secure and self-assured. Or somewhere where the natives will turn on you because you like to wear your cap pointing slightly to the left.

[G-Fafif]

The Second Spitter wrote: Jose strikes me as a "confidence player" (a term I'm not particularly fond of, but I digress) -- he's not the sort of guy that can play somewhere he doesn't feel secure and self-assured. Or somewhere where the natives will turn on you because you like to wear your cap pointing slightly to the left.

Safe and secure...New York life for Jose.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Well, then, while we're all feeling confident in Jos�'s generosity and warm fuzzies about New York --- established relationships, Dominican community, hourly filghts to Santo Domingo, and all --- we return to the painfully uncomfortable fact that there's another, richer team in New York, and they need a shortstop. Desperately. Even as they desperately pretend they don't.

The Mets'd do well to never let him hit that market.

But the facts aren't changing (except for Steve) and we're really just going in circles here.

[stevejrogers]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Trying to sell shirts really weakens the impact of the message. I'd love to understand the logic behind this pearl of wisdom. You could try I suppose. I'm just saying they have motivation$ that go beyond the sentiment on the banner, who's to say they whether they believe in the cause or are just trying to sell shirts?

Have to agree with Bucket on this one. Could be them trying to cash in on a popular cause these days.

On the flip side, they are making Carter shirts, with proceeds of the sales going to brain cancer research. So they are out to make a buck, but I think they do have a self-awarness when it comes to how to go about doing their merch.

[Ceetar]

I think it's probably a correlary to "When all you have is a hammer, all your problems are nails". When you run a small business, particularly one associated with something you love, you're always going to look for ways to profit.

I mean, the guy runs a shirt shop. That's what he does, why not try to take advantage of it? Especially when he already was making the shirts a month prior. I've met him once or twice, seems like an alright guy. His desire for the Mets to keep Reyes is genuine

[Guest The Second Spitter]

SteveJRogers wrote: Have to agree with Bucket on this one.

Does that happen often?

[G-Fafif]

Edgy DC wrote: But the facts aren't changing (except for Steve) and we're really just going in circles here.

Don't trade Jose.

[G-Fafif]

If the 7 Line suddenly produces OH YAY! WE TRADED JOSE! shirts, I'll agree the whole thing was a scam on the scale of the Springfield monorail. Until then, reasonably pure motives, tied to potential profits.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Jose! Oh Stay! Oh Stay! Oh Stay!

[seawolf17]

Jose Reyes, Yankee, would make me very strongly consider hating baseball.

[metirish]

seawolf17 wrote: Jose Reyes, Yankee, would make me very strongly consider hating baseball.

I can't even contemplate that , no please , please no.

[Gwreck]

From Buster Olney's ESPN blog:

Jose Reyes won another game for the Mets, tacking another moment onto his early-season MVP candidacy. Day by day by day, he demonstrates how good he is and the impact he makes when he's on the field. There are natural questions that follow Reyes and whether he can stay healthy, given his injury history. When Fred Wilpon infamously stated in a New Yorker article that Reyes wouldn't get Carl Crawford money -- the outfielder got a seven-year, $142 million deal from the Red Sox -- the owner's skepticism was presumably based on those concerns. But Reyes is showing, again, that when he plays, he is a star. He's leading the National League in hitting, at .339. He's got 30 extra-base hits already, and a slugging percentage of .512. He's on pace for 49 doubles, 30 triples and three homers. Keep in mind that Reyes turns 28 this weekend. He's younger than Crawford. Reyes plays a premium position, and is an excellent defensive shortstop. As executives with other teams evaluate Reyes and quietly ask questions about his personality and his makeup, as the Red Sox did about Crawford, they will hear over and over what a good guy Reyes is, and how perfectly his personality would play in any baseball clubhouse. He brings a smile to the clubhouse every day, Mets manager Terry Collins said over the weekend, regardless how he played the day before, and Reyes desperately wants to play. "If you try to take him out of the lineup, he'll fight you," Collins said. There is an energy level that Reyes brings to the ballpark every day, the kind of energy that is needed in New York. Wilpon may be right; Reyes won't get Crawford money. If he keeps playing like this, Reyes may get more. And day by day by day, the same Mets fans who are extremely unhappy with the Wilpons and their ownership of the team are making more noise about wanting to keep Reyes. He is home-grown, he belongs to them, he is one of them. He has made it clear in the past: He loves playing in New York, and would like to stay When Fred Wilpon gave time for the interviews with The New Yorker and Sports Illustrated, he was trying to stir up sympathy and an understanding of what his family has gone through in the Madoff scandal. His words about Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran obscured that other side of the story, however, and as the fans in Citi Field increasingly respond to Reyes and his success in 2011, Wilpon has to know this: Reyes' situation is becoming a referendum on the Wilpon ownership. If Wilpon wants to win back some of the favor of his fan base, the most efficient way would be to sign Reyes. If Wilpon doesn't re-sign Reyes, and the Mets' homegrown MVP candidate is traded or walks away as a free agent, a significant portion of the fan base that already knows it's in for a period of rebuilding may never forgive the owner.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Buster Olney writes with great wisdom.

[TransMonk]

Agreed, Onley speaks the truth.

[Centerfield]

Yup.

[metirish]

yup again....

fuck

[Guest Edgy DC]

Wait. His play putting the heat on Wilpon is good news, right?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think it is.

[metirish]

It is great news, my fuck was there because as his value increases so are his chances of being gone soon I think.

[Vic Sage]

one of the things that most irritates me about criticism of Reyes is the Fatscesa Doctrine, which states that Reyes' stats are meaningless because he's not "clutch". Grrrrrrr.

Of course, those dismissed stats indicate that Reyes is actually a more effective hitter with runners on than otherwise, in every situation. In fact, the tougher the situation, the greater is his OPS, increasing to nearly 100 points over his career average with RISP/2outs. As for post-season, he's only played in one, in 2006, at age 23. He had a bad series against the Dodgers (which the Mets won anyway), and then put up solid career avg numbers in the losing series against St.Louis. So its not like he has an A-Rod type history of failing in the post-season, either.

The only legitimate knock on him is that he tends to finish seasons relatively weakly in Sept/Oct (.700 ops), after strong July (.789) - August (.819) performances. Clearly, this is not about "clutch", as his other numbers indicate, but about a guy whose game is predicated on his legs getting tired at the end of the year. Any manager with half a clue looking at these tendencies would rest Reyes more in the heat of August, to keep him stronger for the Fall, but the Mets haven't had such a manager since Bobby V left. But that's not Jose's fault... he plays full out until he's too run down to run well.

But in Fatscesa's world, this is a character failing, indicating a lack of intestinal fortitude and therefore he's not worth big money. Of course, the rest of the Yankee-verse may feel similarly, which may make a "Reyes in the Bronx" scenario less likely. One can only relish the irony that their stupidity keeps them from valuing Reyes properly, which may keep them from driving up his price and allow the Mets an opportunity to keep him.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think there's so much we don't know about the money that will be availalbe to the Mets and how they intend to spend it, our best bet is to root for good play and winning. Good news begets good news.

As for Reyes not having the magic extra to make him Yankee-worthy, he'll grow that the minute it's necessary to the narrative. A-Rod and Damon did.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't have all of the salaries at my fingertips, but I think there's a way to do the math that will make Jose affordable.

Mets are currently at $140 million. The number they have to get to is less than that, reportedly no lower than $100 million.

Subtract expiring contracts of Beltran, Castillo, Reyes, and Perez. (And Chris Young too. Maybe a few others?)

Add in new, higher contract for Reyes.

Assume that they'll find some way to avoid all or most of the 2012 obligation for Rodriguez.

Factor in raises for some players. (Niese, Davis, and Pelfrey, most likely. Perhaps Murphy and Pagan too.)

I bet you could come up with a number somewhere around $110 million.

If retaining Reyes means no big free agent signings this winter, so be it. Stock up on inexpensive relievers and let Terry pick the best of the bunch to be his closer. (I'd argue that you don't need a designated closer, but I'll concede that nobody thinks that way anymore.)

To replace Beltran, you can get an outfielder or two off the scrap heap (like they did with Capuano and Young last winter) and let Martinez and Murphy compete for the spot as well.

Is this a recipe for a championship in 2012? Probably not, but it keeps them in the neighborhood of "not too bad" and avoids a tear-down that could set them back for several years.

David Wright is under the Mets control through 2013. By the time he needs a new contract, Jason Bay will (thankfully) be off the books. (Who knows, maybe Bay will make himself an asset between now and the end of 2013, but that seems enormously unlikely.)

[metirish]

I'd not be surprised if the Wilpon's had given thought to Reyes having a crap season and getting him on the cheap.