2010 Schaefer Voting Discussion Thread

[metsmarathon]

um... we're still doing it this year, right?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm willing to do it if people are interested.

I may even do it if they're not.

[metsmarathon]

woohoo! now to update my spreadsheet!

[Guest themetfairy]

I'll vote.

Thanks BG

[MFS62]

I haven't been voting in recent years because of my work schedule. I don't get to see most of the games and I can't get a full picture just from the box scores (e.g.- game saving defensive plays).
But I still follow the threads after each game.
Thank you for the effort.

Later

[metsmarathon]

mlb.com (and therefore mets.com) has video highlights from each game. if there's a defensive highlight, it'll show up there. in fact, i use this as an additional source of data for my own voting. you make the defensive highlight, you get 2 extra 'marathon points'! conversely, if your blunder was so egregious that you make the highlight reel (which is pretty rare, really), you lose 2 marathon points!

[Fman99]

It is my intention to vote after every game.

[seawolf17]

Benjamin Grimm 5
m.e.t.b.o.t. 1.83
metsmarathon 1
themetfairy 1
fman99 1
seawolf17 0.17

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for the 2010 Schaefer Mets Player of the Year Award will begin on Monday, the Crane Pool Forum has announced. This will be the sixth season that Crane Pool Forum members will be participating in Schaefer voting. The Schaefer Mets Player of the Year Award was established in the 1970's, and Schaefer points were awarded by Mets broadcasters Lindsey Nelson, Ralph Kiner, and Bob Murphy. The award was re-established by the Crane Pool Forum in 2005. Third baseman David Wright has won the revived prize in for of the last five years, with pitcher Johan Santana winning in 2008. A voting thread is opened in the forum at the conclusion of each regular season Mets game, according to CPF spokesmodel Benjamin Grimm. Voting generally stays open for two business days, after which the votes are tallied and the results are posted in the voting thread. In addition, says Grimm, each month a Schaefer Mets Player, Pitcher, and Relief Pitcher of the Month will be named. Voters are asked to adhere to a specific format, which is outlined at http://archives.cranepoolforum.net/6200/f9_t6278.shtml

[Benjamin Grimm]

Just a reminder of how this will work. There are two full business days allotted for the voting, so Monday's game will be open for voting all through Tuesday and Wednesday, and will close at my first opportunity on Thursday, probably in the morning.

[metirish]

What about public holidays , will they be counted or not?

[Benjamin Grimm]

No. I figure that most people vote at work (!) so I don't count days like Memorial Day or July 4 in the two-business-day rule.

When there are no holidays, weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday) games close on Wednesday. Monday games close on Thursday, Tuesday games on Friday, Wednesday games on Monday, and Thursday games on Tuesday.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I love the participation we get in early April!

Final reminder that voting for April 5's Opening Day win over the Marlins will close some time tomorrow (Thursday) morning.

[Guest Edgy DC]

i'm going to make my semi-regular whine about starting pitchers getting ranked on an absolute scale and batters on a scale relative to the number of available points after the pitchers get theirs (or maybe just the starting pitcher).

And how about that scale? I mean, six is as good as it gets, and Santana is pulling down fives. A good performance and all, and I'll take it any time, but maybe leave more room for excellence, or for the seven-run-producing batters.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Or the two-run saving defenders.

Point taken (though, to be fair, Santana's gotten one 5, and one 4, and the rest between 2 and 4). I adjusted my Santana total a bit yesterday, and may do so again today... largely because a lot of what he was doing was very fielding-dependent (not so many Ks or GBs); I'm thinking that might factor a lot into my pitcher voting this year, even if I'm not sure EXACTLY how just yet.

[A Boy Named Seo]

I got my Opening Day vote in. I hope to keep up, but I know me, and know that I suck, and probably won't keep up. But I'm gonna try.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Even if you miss a few games, there's no reason why you can't jump back in at any time.

[metsmarathon]

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Or the two-run saving defenders. Point taken (though, to be fair, Santana's gotten one 5, and one 4, and the rest between 2 and 4). I adjusted my Santana total a bit yesterday, and may do so again today... largely because a lot of what he was doing was very fielding-dependent (not so many Ks or GBs); I'm thinking that might factor a lot into my pitcher voting this year, even if I'm not sure EXACTLY how just yet.

see, that's why you need a giant, unweildy spreadsheet to help you figure out your voting.

[Guest Edgy DC]

In game two, wasn't Bay the guy? Two walks, a double, and two runs scored. He had a very similar line to Wright's, only better. Yet folks aren't really putting him ahead of the pack.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Nine voters so far for that game, and three have voted a tie among two or more players for most points. For the other six, two have awarded the most points to Bay, two to Cora, and two to Castillo.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Wednesday night's 10-inning loss to the Marlins will close some time over the weekend. If you still have a vote to cast, please try to get it in today.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. has unexpectedly voted metropolitan centerfielder gary matthews, jr., to be the schaefer player of the game for the second game of the 2010 baseball season. this is a direct result of a peculiarity which had previously not come to m.e.t.b.o.t.'s attention. if a baseball umpire calls a balk against a pitcher, then the lead base runner is assigned the change in win probability. the assumption, therefore, is that the lead base runner has done something to disrupt the pitcher, or that the pitcher was intending to deceive the lead base runner.

this particular play resulted in the win probability for the new york metropolitans baseball club increasing from 35.4% to 61.3% and was the greatest positive play for any metropolitan player.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yeah, I was 'fused, seeing the b.o.t voting for a guy to win who I didn't even include in the field.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. is a slave to m.e.t.b.o.t.'s overly complicated springwound mechanical programming.

in the third game of the metropolitan season, m.e.t.b.o.t. has had an opportunity to implement m.e.t.b.o.t.'s newest programming upgrade. leading off the third inning, florida marlins outfielder chris coghlan hit a line drive over the head metropolitan second baseman luis castillo, who leapt into the air and successfully fielded the batted ball. this particular play has been selected as a highlight by mlb.com, and is therefore designated a 'web gem' by m.e.t.b.o.t.'s programming. the implication of this designation is that the outcome of the play is a result of the defensive player's effort, and not the pitcher. therefore, the win percentage added by this play has been deducted from the pitcher and credited to luis castillo. unfortunately, in this instance, there was no net outcome on the schaefer voting results since both players had otherwise contributed rather negatively to the outcome of the game.

m.e.t.b.o.t. already had been programmed to attribute the outcomes of defensive errors to the player credited with the error, and not the pitcher. the web gem programming upgrade is intended to mirror and balance this.

m.e.t.b.o.t. intends to note the instances where the web gem programming affects the outcome of m.e.t.b.o.t.'s schaefer voting in the future, to mitigate against the potential confusion of human schaefer voters and those non-voting members of the crane pool forum who may otherwise be interested in the integrity and results of the voting.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Voting for Thursday night's loss to Florida will close on Tuesday morning, perhaps very early. If you have a vote that hasn't been cast yet, please try to get it in today.

Schaefer POTG 4/8/10 - Marlins 3, Mets 1

And I'll post the official announcement tomorrow, but the entire weekend series against Washington will close on Wednesday.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I was trying to find a new way to express how we're over-valuing less-than-excellent pitching performances after viewing the thread representing the PotG poll for the Mets last victory. This 8-2 victory featured six innings of two-run ball by starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey and two players going deep twice, including the starting catcher.

I checked the UMDB to search for the relative scarcity of these performances. Mets have gone six innings or more yielding two runs or fewer: 6115 occurrences through Mets history.

Mets hitting two homers or more: 629 occurrences through Mets history.

Yet these performances are getting equal or similar attention. Is this not unfair?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy DC wrote: I was trying to find a new way to express how we're over-valuing less-than-excellent pitching performances after viewing the thread representing the PotG poll for the Mets last victory. This 8-2 victory featured six innings of two-run ball by starting pitcher Mike Pelfrey and two players going deep twice, including the starting catcher. I checked the UMDB to search for the relative scarcity of these performances. Mets have gone six innings or more yielding two runs or fewer: 6115 occurrences through Mets history. Mets hitting two homers or more: 629 occurrences through Mets history. Yet these performances are getting equal or similar attention. Is this not unfair?

Not that I disagree with the larger point, but if rarity equaled value, then Eric Bruntlett should have been the Phils' MVP last year.

[metsmarathon]

well, you could always look at run expectancy...

for instance, rod barajas contributed 1.68 RE24 and jeff francoeur contributed 2.14 RE24, compared to pelfrey's 0.89 RE24.

RE24 (runs above average by the 24 base/out states): RE24 is the difference in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players� RE24 for individual plays is added up to get his season total RE24.

so francoeur basically contributed 2.5 times what pelfrey did, and barajas doubled up pelfrey.

it would appear that the going rate for a pitcher is that he should be expected to allow 0.48 runs per inning pitched. allowing 2 runs in 6 innings puts him at 0.89 runs below the expected 6 * 0.48 = 2.88 (we'll assume it rounds up to 2.89).

y'know, it would be interested if somebody would craft up a 'bot specifically to provide schafer voting based on run expectancy...

such voting would probably look like this:

francoeur 2.66
barajas 2.08
wright 0.84
pelfrey 0.82
tatis 0.6
takahashi 0.6
nieve 0.6
mejia 0.6
cora 0.47
tejada 0.47
pagan 0.27

or, possibly like this:

francoeur 3.5
barajas 2.75
wright 1.11
pelfrey 1.08
tatis 0.78
takahashi 0.78

note: in my discussion above, i forgot about pelfrey's negative contributions with the bat. voters tend to do that, i think. he cost the team 0.23 runs, giving him a net of only 0.66 RE24 for the game, which is clearly a lesser contribution than either francoeur or barajas made.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Zack Lee.

[m.e.t.b.o.t.]

m.e.t.b.o.t. has been presented with so many opportunities to implement m.e.t.b.o.t.'s new programming.

in the 9 april game, web gems were attributed to metropolitan second baseman alex cora and metropolitan third baseman david wright. these defensive plays saved 0.030 and 0.014 wpa, respectively. while neither defensive player benefitted from their web gem in terms of mechanical schaefer voting, metropolitan starting pitcher mike pelfrey was debited a total of 0.044 wpa. this effectively reduced his schaefer vote from 1.26 to 0.67, while increasing the voting for other metropolitan players to varying degrees relative to their contributions to win percentages.

in the 10 april game, a web gem was attributed to metropolitan third baseman david wright. 0.017 wpa was credited to metropolitan third baseman david wright, and was debited from metropolitan starting pitcher oliver perez. another web gem was attributed to both metropolitan pitcher pedro feliciano and metropolitan catcher henry blanco. a total of 0.137 wpa was recorded for this play, and was shared by the participants. 0.0685 wpa was credited to metropolitan catcher henry blanco and debited from metropolitan pitcher pedro felicaino. the 0.0685 wpa attributable to pedro feliciano for his defensive efforts was also debited from him, resulting in zero net change. in the same game, metropolitan defensive players committed two errors. since the attribution of wpa based on teh comission of errors is assumed to be appropriate, it will necessarily be discussed. the effect of the web gems on schaefer voting was to increase the voting total for metropolitan third baseman from 1.90 to 2.20, and to decrease the voting total for metropolitan pitcher pedro feliciano from 1.35 to 0.08

in the 11 april game, a web gem was attributed to metropolitan third baseman david wright. 0.039 wpa was credited to metropolitan third baseman david wright, and was debited from metropolitan starting pitcher johan santana. another web gem was attributed to metropolitan right fielder jeff francoeur, who was credited 0.038 wpa. 0.038 wpa was debited from metropolitan starting pitcher johan santana. the effect of the web gems on schaefer voting was to increase the voting total for metropolitan third baseman david wright from 0.00 to 0.28 and to increase the voting total for metropolitan right fielder jeff francoeur from 1.24 to 2.76