Anatomy of the Collapse

[Frayed Knot]

Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it -- George Santayana

This thread (Memories of Collaspe) has taken over as worst thread ever, IMO. -- Holy Chicken

No, THIS one has. -- Frayed Knot



So, as you may have noticed, we have Seventeen games left! ... a number which oughta ring a few bells.

OK so some of you are going to hate me for this (at least those of you who don't already) and, no, this wasn't neccessarily inspired by the 'Memories of the Collapse' thread (I was going to do this anyway). But I don't believe in jinxes and have no qualms about reliving last season's end, if for no other reason than that this year can't possibly be as bad and will look great in comparison.
The 'Memories' thread shows how fuzzy our recall can be at times - especially since many of those games seemed to be a 'Groundhogs Day' of bad baseball over and over again. So I thought a day-by-day real-time look at how that disaster evolved would be fun ... or torturous, whatever.


The Set-up:
What some might not remember is how up-and-down wacky the whole last month+ was.
We actually first reached the high-water mark of a 7-game lead on Aug 25th. Then, after losing the next day to LA, came our first disaster against the Phils, a 4-game sweep in Philly and the lead was quickly down to 2 (Game 133, Aug 30).
So we took our devastation from that and proceeded to win 10 of the next 12! -- sweeping 3 in Atlanta, taking 2 of 3 in Cincy, sweeping Houston, and taking 2 of 3 from the Braves again and suddenly the lead was back to 7 games (Game 145, Sept 12).

And that's where the trouble started.
- 'The Collapse' started in a situation just like today; Mets idle, Phils playing. Phils went on the win that game chopping the lead to 6-1/2.
- We then proceeded lose 5 straight and lose 5 games off the standings in the process. Of course it helped that the first 3 of those games were against Philly so we arutomatically lost a full game each day.
- We actually then WON 4 of the next 5 but only gained a game in the process! It takes two to erase a lead that big and Philly was winning at that point more often even than we were losing.
- That was followed up by a second 5 game losing streak which killed the lead entirely, before splitting the final two games after we had put ourselves in the position of needing both.


So on this day in collapse history (not actually the same calendar day, but on our day off between games 145 & 146) the Phils (who had just lost 6 of their last 7) thumped the Padres 14-2 behind rookie Kyle Kendrick, HRs from Howard & Coste, and 5 hits from Jayson Werth.

Lead = 6.5
Next up: The Phils come to Shea

Edited September 11, 2008 by Guest

[duan]

are you trying to make people throw up?

[metirish]

] So we took our devastation from that and proceeded to win 10 of the next 12!

I had completely forgotten about that , good memory.

[seawolf17]

I hat you. I refuse to recognize the existence of this thread.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I remember I was vacationing in California when that first 7-game lead dwindled away, and when it started to come back. I followed it all through out-of-town newspapers and the little scroll on the bottom of the ESPN screen on my hotel televisions.

I also remember, perhaps right before that second series against the Phillies, Keith saying at the end of an SNY broadcast that the Mets were rounding into championship form, and were in good shape for the playoff push. (It might have been as they were completing their sweep against the Astros.)

"Fun fact" about September 2007: The Mets actually had a .500 record that month. Prior to the notorious 5-12 ending, they had opened the month by going 9-2. I guess that's why Keith was thinking they were about to take off.

Who could have seen a 9-2 followed immediately by a 5-12?

What an unbelievable month that was. And the Mets were, at the time, running those "Your Postseason Has Come" commercials on SNY.

[stevejrogers]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: And the Mets were, at the time, running those "Your Postseason Has Come" commercials on SNY.

Amazingly, they never stopped or toned down those ads, even after 1st place had slipped through their hands that final weekend of the season.

Its a good thing though, that this year the Mets had no "clever" marketing slogan this year, and kept it simple with "Final Season At Shea."

[Frayed Knot]

Game 146; Friday , Sept 14 - Philly @ Mets

Moyer (7 IP, 2R, 4H) vs Glavine (7.2 IP, 2R, 5H):

Mets jump out to a 2-0 lead on Wright's 2-out solo HR in the 1st
and then a 4th inning Castillo leadoff BB; steals 2nd w/1 out, Beltran BB; Alou RBI 1B. Further run-scoring was killed by a Jeff Conine (remember him?) GiDP

Glavine is perfect in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, & 5th

Philly 6th - Nunez leadoff BB, Utley 2-out, 2R HR

Mets 8th - Load the bases on 2 HBPs and an infield single but Beltran Ks w/2 out

Wagner & Gordon pitch perfect 9ths

Philly 10th - Heilman pitching:
Werth 1B
Ruiz reaches on sac bunt attempt (1st & 2nd)
Nunez = Sac Bunt (2nd & 3rd)
Dobbs (PH) = Sac Fly
Rollins = Lineout

Met 10th - Milledge GO; Green K; Reyes K


Nothing outrageously painful about this one - except for the usual early lead/late loss, the part where we weren't able to hit Jamie Moyer, and getting burned by bunts.
- In the 9th Carlos Gomez couldn't get a bunt down (force out at 2nd after a leadoff HBP)
- and then the Phils run in the 10th was set up by the Mets getting NO outs on a sac bunt attempt right after the batter (Ruiz) had his AB kept alive by an E2


Lead = 5-1/2

[Frayed Knot]

Game 147; Saturday , Sept 15 - Philly @ Mets (game 2 of the 17)
Phils 5 - Mets 3
Lohse (5 IP, 3R, 7H) vs Pedro (6 IP, 1R, 7H):

- Phils get 1 in the 1st on 3 singles

- Mets load the bases w/none out in the 2nd but score only once:
LoDuca - FC at home; Milledge - HBP; Pedro - K; Reyes - PO

- Mets score twice in the 3rd - leadoff single by Cstillo and RBI singles by Beltran & LoDuca

- Met 6th - get 3 walks in the inning ... but also get caught stealing twice, including Reyes trying for 3rd w/2 out and Wright up

- Feliciano relieves Pedro to start the 7th and immediately gives up a leadoff 2B then an E3 for a run (3-2 Mets)

- In the 8th Rowland ties the game w/a leadoff HR
Sosa then replaces Feliciano and walks two then serves up a 2-out/2-RBI triple to Rollins (5-3 Phils)

- Mets vs Myers in the 9th get 1st & 3rd with one out, but Wright Ks and Beltran flies out


Lead = 4-1/2;
N-HOP Pct jumps from 35.5% to 37.9%

More little stuff killing us: caught stealings, leaving runners on, etc
Mets get 8 hits (7 singles) plus 8 walks but score only 3
Bullpen = 3 innings, 4 runs (3 earned), 4 hits, 3 walks

[Fman99]

="Frayed Knot"]Game 147; Saturday , Sept 15 - Philly @ Mets (game 2 of the 17) Phils 5 - Mets 3 Lohse (5 IP, 3R, 7H) vs Pedro (6 IP, 1R, 7H): - Phils get 1 in the 1st on 3 singles - Mets load the bases w/none out in the 2nd but score only once: LoDuca - FC at home; Milledge - HBP; Pedro - K; Reyes - PO - Mets score twice in the 3rd - leadoff single by Cstillo and RBI singles by Beltran & LoDuca - Met 6th - get 3 walks in the inning ... but also get caught stealing twice, including Reyes trying for 3rd w/2 out and Wright up - Feliciano relieves Pedro to start the 7th and immediately gives up a leadoff 2B then an E3 for a run (3-2 Mets) - In the 8th Rowland ties the game w/a leadoff HR Sosa then replaces Feliciano and walks two then serves up a 2-out/2-RBI triple to Rollins (5-3 Phils) - Mets vs Myers in the 9th get 1st & 3rd with one out, but Wright Ks and Beltran flies out Lead = 4-1/2; N-HOP Pct jumps from 35.5% to 37.9% More little stuff killing us: caught stealings, leaving runners on, etc Mets get 8 hits (7 singles) plus 8 walks but score only 3 Bullpen = 3 innings, 4 runs (3 earned), 4 hits, 3 walks

The last game I attended in '07. Really a downer that they couldn't hold this lead (among others).

[Guest holychicken]

You are an evil, evil person, frayed.

[Elster88]

Keep doing it. I want to feel pain.

[Guest holychicken]

And you, Elster, are a masochist.




(FTR, I have read each of these posts despite how much I hat them and how much I hat frayed right now )

[Frayed Knot]

="holychicken"]You are an evil, evil person, frayed.

Yes. Yes I am.


Game 148; Sunday , Sept 16 - Philly @ Mets
Phils 10 - Mets 6
Adam Eaton (4.2 IP, 5R, 7H) vs Perez (4.2 IP, 5R, 6 BB, 7H):

Phils score three early off Ollie, two on a 3nd inning, 2-out, bases-loaded error by Reyes

Beltran's clutch 2-out, 5th inning 3R HR ties the game at 5

So we're on a roll, right? ... Wrong!
Mota starts the 6th and immediately loads the bases: Walk - Error (Castillo) - Walk
and then gives way to Sosa to issue first another walk and then a PH-GS to Dobbs. (10-5 Phils)
Sosa then retires the side in order as he, followed by Collazzo, Smith, Feliciano & Heilman no-hit the Phils for the rest of the game in a classic case of TLTL (too little too late)

Met bats, meanwhile, finish up the remaining 4 innings by getting 2 hits (one a Wright solo HR) off 4 Philly relievers.

You want errors? ... We got errors!!
SIX of 'em!! {Conine, LoDuca, Reyes (2), Alou & Castillo} leading to 4 uneraned runs

Lead = 3-1/2;
N-HOP Pct rises from 37.9% to 40.7%

We can blame Soupy's kids if it makes you feel any better
http://archives.cranepoolforum.net/7300/f14_t7378.shtml

[Benjamin Grimm]

Those six errors, I think, are what made me feel that the Mets were playing scared, and gave me my first sniff of an impending collapse.

[Frayed Knot]

Well it's time for the Nationals. Should be able to clean up there, right?


Game 149; Monday , Sept 17 - Mets @ Nationals
Nats 12 - Mets 4
Brian Lawrence (3.1 IP, 4R, 6H) vs Tim Redding (4 IP, 4R, 6H):

Mets jump out with three runs off Redding before he records his 2nd out - 2 on another Beltran HR ... but then only once more for the rest of the game (Green's 5th inning solo HR) off Redding and the murderer's row bullpen of: Albaledejo, Saul Rivera, Luis Ayala (1 IP, 2H), A. Munoz, and Jesus Colome.

Starter Brian Lawrence - and, gee, don't you like hearing those words - retires 10 of the first 11 he faced ... and then implodes, not recording another out until he was pulled with the score tied in the 4th.
Then the relief parade starts:
- Sele bails Lawrence out of the 4th but coughs up one in the 5th (5-4 Nats)
- Schoeneweis bails Sele out of the 5th, but gives up two in the 6th before being pulled in favor of Sosa who gives up two more himself. (9-4 Nats)
- Willie Collazzo starts the 8th until he gives up a double.
- Out he goes and in comes Joe Smith who not only gives up Collazzo's runner but then two more on a PH HR by some guy named Ryan Church (12-4 Nats). But, hey, at least he pitched a scoreless 8th right?

Four more errors, although all the runs were earned this time.

Phils, meanwhile, jump out to an 11-0 lead in St Louis ... and then hang on to win 13-11 as the Cards put the tying runs on in the 9th with one out but can't get them in.

Lead = 2-1/2;
N-HOP Pct rises from 40.7% to 44.0% (we need 11 "good" outcomes out of 25 games (13 Met games, 12 Phils)

[bmfc1]

The above game is the first one I mentioned in my KTE. I get the chills just thinking about that one.

[Frayed Knot]

[u:5eb8750dcb]Game 150; Tuesday , Sept 18 - Mets @ Nationals[/u:5eb8750dcb]
Nats 9 - Mets 8
John Maine (4.1 IP, 8R, 8H) vs Joel Hanrahan (3 IP, 5R, 7H):

- Mets bat around and score 4 times in the 1st

- Maine gives up single runs in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th

- But the Mets add single runs in the 3rd & 4th then two more in the 5th to take what looked like a comfortable 7-3 lead.

- And then Maine blew up ... allowing 5 runs (big blow = Ronnie Belliard 3R HR) while only getting one out before Schoeneweis put a lid on more trouble by getting a GiDP (8-7 Nats)
He gave up a solo HR to start the 6th (9-7) but that was the only run the pen allowed this day.

- Problem was, of course, that Operation Offensive Shutdown was in full swing as the Mets went scoreless in innings 6, 7 & 8.
In the 9th facing Chad Cordero three straight two-out hits brought in a run and put the tying & go-ahead runs on base ... just in time for a Ruben Gotay K to end the game

Can't blame the pen for this one. Met bats get 16 hits and 3 walks off NINE Washington pitchers but it wasn't Maine's night.


The Phils were in St. Louis for Game 2 of their series.
They go to extras tied at 3. BOTH teams score in the 10th ... before the Phils score 3 in the 13th for the win.

Lead = 1-1/2;
N-HOP Pct rises from 44.0% to 47.8%

And that right there shows the problem with the whole "7 in 17" thing, how quickly the lead disappeared to almost nothing with still 12 games left to play and became a situation where missing the playoffs was a distinct possibility.
Kind of like this year.

[Gwreck]

Frayed Knot wrote: Kind of like this year.

Well, except for that the biggest lead either team has had this year since the all-star break is what, 3 games?

[A Boy Named Seo]

Man, I was drunk that whole month.

[Frayed Knot]

Gwreck wrote: ="Frayed Knot"]Kind of like this year. Well, except for that the biggest lead either team has had this year since the all-star break is what, 3 games?

Yeah, but the similarity is how quickly the leads disappeared. You hope that the cushion holds for 17 days and it's gone, or mostly gone, in just 5.




This is the first day I didn't feel like doing this ... and it's a win, go figure.


Game 151; Wednesday , Sept 19 - Mets @ Nationals
Mets 8 - Nats 4
Mike Pelfrey (5 IP, 3R, 9H) vs Matt Chico (5.1 IP, 5R, 7H):

Pelfrey isn't great, but he slogs through 5-plus innings and 12 baserunners to leave with a lead and is followed up by 4 innings of 1-run/3-hit ball from Sosa, Heilman and Wagner.

Mets bats plug away in enough innings to keep the run total growing.
2nd inning: Alou single, Conine 2B, LoDuca SacFly
3rd inning: Reyes 2B, Wright 1B
5th inning: Reyes 1B, Castillo 3B, Wright SacFly
6th inning: Alou 2B, LoDuca SacFly
until breaking out in the 7th for 3 runs - a Green single, an error, then RBI singles from Wright & Alou - to make it an 8-3 lead
An unearned run (3 more errors today) off Wagner getting in some work in the 9th for your 8-4 final


And the Phils lose too!! Cardinals get 11 hits but need to scratch out a run in the 10th to grab a 2-1 win.

Lead = 2-1/2;
N-HOP Pct drops from 47.8% to 42.9% as we now need 9 of the remaining 21 possibilities to go our way.

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Personally, I'm too concerned about the current collapse to worry about last years debacle.

[Frayed Knot]

[u:b5705b5cda]Game 152; Thursday , Sept 20 - Mets @ Marlins[/u:b5705b5cda]
Marlins 8 - Mets 7
Tom Glavine (5 IP, 4R, 11H) vs Dontrelle Willis (6 IP, 3R, 5H):

I warn you right now, this one's gonna suck. 3 hours & 52 minutes worth of suck.

- Mets jump out to a 3-0 lead with 2 in the 1st (Alou 2-RBI 2B) and another in the 3rd (Reyes & Wright 2Bs)
- Glavine dances through trouble in the first 4 innings but then get blasted for 4 in the 5th: 2B - 2B - 1B - 1B - HR - 3B and his night is done
- Marlins continue to get runners on in each of the next 4 innings (they'd wind up with [u:b5705b5cda]21 hits[/u:b5705b5cda] altogether) but are kept off the board by Smith, Schoeneweis, Mota & Heilman
- So the Mets, trailing 4-3 entering the 9th and facing Kevin Gregg, get going: LoDuca 2Bs, Gotay reaches somehow on an FC, and Green walks loading the bases. Reyes Ks, but then Marlon Anderson hitting for the pitcher's spot clears the bases with a 2B and a 6-4 lead. Wright grounds out but Beltran drives in Anderson for a 3-run cushion.
- Of course there's still the bottom half of the 9th and Wagner is supposedly unavailable one day after throwing 21 pitches with a 5-run lead, but tonight we have a 3-run lead so that shouldn't matter, right?
- Wrong! Feliciano allows a leadoff single to the lefty Hermida. Out he goes, in comes Sosa.
- A 2B puts runners on 2nd & 3rd, a GO scores one and a 1B scores another. Another 1B moves the tying run to 3rd where a groundout brings him in and we're going to extras.
- Mets get a leadoff walk in the 10th but Gomez fails to bunt him over (1-3 forceout) and they don't score.
- Bottom 10 w/Sosa still on the mound: Hanley Ramirez leads off with a single and Uggla doubles him in - Game Over!.
Wagner's "replacements" (Feliciano & Sosa) faced 9 batters and retired 3.

And while all this is going on, the Phillies get 4 in the 7th and 1 in the 8th to steal a 7-6 win from the Nationals

Lead = 1-1/2; Magic number stays at 9
N-HOP Pct jumps up from 42.9% to 47.4% as we need 9 of the remaining 19 possibilities to go our way.

[Centerfield]

This was the second worst game of last year. The worst being the last game.

Jorge Sosa sucked. It astounds me that it took until this spring to figure that out.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

This was the game I was talking about last week. I'm in that game thread complaining of Wright "throwing the ball into the photobox" costing Soso a save but I look now to see there was no error in the box score.

There was an infield single for Mike Jacobs on a ball hit to third base in the middle of their rally. Wright got away without an error being charged because he dove for it. But then he double-clutched and made a wide throw.

I had flashbacks last nite when Wright gakked on Milledg in the 9th.

David is all f'ed up. But he's been known to come out these funks too.

[Frayed Knot]

[u:7a095e0215]Game 153; Friday , Sept 21 - Mets @ Marlins[/u:7a095e0215]
Mets 9 - Marlins 6
Pedro Martinez (5 IP, 4 R, 8H) vs Scott Olsen (5 IP, 8R, [u:7a095e0215]0 Earned[/u:7a095e0215], 7H):

Who says the 2007 team couldn't bounce back from bad losses?
This game actually reversed the usual pattern as it was the Mets falling behind early then coming back late against a sloppy team - SIX Marlin errors - and having the bullpen toss zeros.

- Down 3-0 in the 3rd the Mets tie the game on a single, error, passed ball, error, single
- and then three more times in the 4th on 2-out singles by Castillo & Beltran after the inning was kept alive by an error.
- and then twice more in the 5th on a Reyes single after the inning was kept alive by an error
- A Delgado solo HR in the 7th (the only Met earned run of the game) gives a big enough cushion as the pen throws 4 innings of 1-run/2-hit ball including the first ever NYM save for Scott Schoeneweis.

Phils get HRs from Rollins, Burrell & Howard to beat the Nats 6-3


Lead stays at 1-1/2; Magic number slides to 8
N-HOP Pct adjusts itself slightly 47.4% to 47.1% as we need 8 of the remaining 17 possibilities to go our way.

Phils, btw, hold a 2-game lead in the WC race at this point meaning that we supposedly have a bigger cushion than needed.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Frayed Knot wrote: Phils, btw, hold a 2-game lead in the WC race at this point meaning that we supposedly have a bigger cushion than needed.

Wow, I don't remember that part of it at all. If the Phillies were 2 up on the Wild Card then the Mets were 3� up. They blew a 3�-game wild card lead with 9 to play?

Yikes.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Actually, that's not correct. I'm looking at the standings from September 21, and the Phillies are 84-70, while the Wild Card-leading Padres are 85-68, the identical record that the Mets have at this point.

The Phillies are 1.5 back in the Wild Card and the Rockies are next, at 82-72, 3� games behind the Padres and 2 behind the Phillies.

The Rockies, of course, with their incredible late-season surge, are largely what kept the Mets from having the Wild Card as a fallback option.

[Frayed Knot]

Ahh, I looked too quickly and thought SD was leading the West.
I forgot that the Central was the bad division last year and the 1st place Cubs were several games behind even 2nd place clubs from the East & West.

[Frayed Knot]

[u:f1a98cf65d]Game 154; Saturday , Sept 22 - Mets @ Marlins[/u:f1a98cf65d]
Mets 7 - Marlins 2
Ollie Perez (8 IP, 2 R, 6H) vs BK Kim (5 IP, 5 R, 3 H):

Hey, this September baseball stuff is easy. Get good starting pitching, score early and often, quick and easy innings from the pen.
What, us worry?

- Reyes doubles to lead off the game, gets bunted to 3rd, comes in on Wright's single, he then steals 2nd and comes in on an infield error.
- Castro's 3R HR in the 4th makes it 5-Zip
- The Fish get on the board in the bottom of the inning with a double and a pair of Sac Flies.
- Mets tack on single runs in the 6th and 8th and it's a 7-1 game.
- Ollie's gives up one in his last inning of the day before Heilman tosses a 1-hit 9th to close it out..


Meanwhile in DC, the Phils score 3 in the top of the 10th to beat the Nats 4-1


Lead stays at 1-1/2; Magic number drops to 8
N-HOP Pct adjusts itself slightly from 47.1% to 46.7% as we need 7 of the remaining 15 possibilities to go our way.

[Frayed Knot]

[u:ccf65f8078]Game 155; Sunday , Sept 23 - Mets @ Marlins[/u:ccf65f8078]
Mets 7 - Marlins 6
OMaine (5 IP, 3R, 6H) vs C. Seddon (who?) (5 IP, 2R, 3H):

A 4-hour roller-coaster that results in our 3rd straight win and shirley a sign that the worst is behind us and that we were bound to hang on afterall.

- Jeremy Hermida's 2RBI single puts the Marlins up in the 3rd.
- LoDuca's 2R HR answers in the 4th
- Things remain calm until bottom 6 when Maine allows the first two runners to reach and is pulled for Feliciano hwo promptly allows both to score. Sosa finishes the inning unscathed.
- Trailing 3-2 in the 8th, the Mets explode for 4 on an Alou single and a Delgado 3R HR
- So, armed with a 3 run lead what does Heilman do? Why he starts the inning Walk - Walk - Double of course and the 8th inning ends with a 1-run lead
- In comes Wagner for the 9th and out goes Dan Uggla's leadoff HR and the game is tied.
- After a scoreless 10th (Joe Smith) a Reyes walk followed by Castillo & Wright singles puts the Mets back on top. And then a 1-2-3 11th from Schoeneweis gets him his second consecutive save.

And the Phillies actually lose!!!. 5-3 Nationals

Lead jumps to 2-1/2; Magic number drops to 6
And suddenly we only need 5 of the remaining 13 games to go our way (N-HOP = 38.5%) to secure the division.