Zambrano: What's Wrong & What Happens Next

[nymr83]

DocTee is Aaron Heilman!
This injury is a blessing for the Mets.

[stevejrogers]

Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"]The Kaz-Victor contest now has a victor, and it ain't Victor. Fix this in ten minutes, Peterson, expert handler of pitcher's arms and careers. Kaz now has 4 times as many victories as Victor In-Name-Only in 2006 and twice as many IP, figures that of course can only get higher as the season goes on. Kaz is now 10th in the AL in ERA, while Victor is probably somewhere in the NL's bottom 5 with a season's ERA of 6.75. The big difference of course is that Victor's arm is now totally screwed up, and Kaz's is healthy, and that was most of the rationale behind swapping them--they feared that Kaz's arm wouldn't hold up. Good one, assholes. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7292 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6752 I wanted to post my own "I told you so" message (aimed at Mets' management of course, I don't remember anyone here saying Kazmir/Zambrano was a good trade), but I think Bret's will do just nicely.

The only media guy I know of who actually was for the trade when it happened was Wally Matthews, then on 1050 ESPN Radio. Essentially saying that he didn't know anything about Kazmir and knew that Zambrano was a Major League caliber starting pitcher and that it was a sign that the Mets were going for the pennant RIGHT NOW!

Funny thing is, and probably why I remember it, he did a complete 180 after the Mets lost that first weekend series after the deals, saying it and the Benson trade were horrid deals, and that the Mets should start trading off all the veterans (specifically Leiter and Glavine) and stock pile youngsters his next show

I think he pulled a hammy backpeddling!

[Guest OlerudOwned]

[Centerfield]

Did they say anything about this in the pre-game? As to what the Mets might do?

[Gwreck]

Zambrano out for the year with a torn flexor tendon.

[nymr83]

he's already on the 60 day DL to make room on the 40-man roster for Lima (and to keep Fortunado in the bullpen)

[Guest OlerudOwned]

Nymr83 wrote: he's already on the 60 day DL to make room on the 40-man roster for Lima (and to keep Fortunado in the bullpen)

The way Bartolome is pitching right now, I hope they never let him out of the bullpen.

[nymr83]

well he's here strictly as an inning-eater right now. with the day off tommorow the bullpen should be ok going forward so we shouldn't see him again unless the score is lopsided. if we decide to go to a 4-man rotation for awhile (which we can get away with) i'd like to see Bell up here in Fortunato's place incase we have meaningful innings to pitch.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

="Rotblatt"] The reason Heilman's been in so many tough situations is because we've gotten an average of ~5 innings from our #4 & 5 pitchers.

That's not entirely accurate. The main reason we've used him is because we've had a lot of leads to protect and just an adequate offense. Of course more innings from the starters would matter some, the 4 and 5 guys have as many complerte games as the 1 2 and 3 guys so far.

]If we had more effective pitchers, we wouldn't need our three-headed monster quite so much--a two-headed monster would be just fine.

Agree with the first part, obviously, but don't necessarily buy the second.

]And, you know, Julio would be a little baby monster with Big Monster upside doing his teething in the middle innings.

I'm happy for Julio's success but would hate to put him in the same white-knuckle situatiuons that Heilman's been in thus far. While I'm not saying he or Bell couldn't be effective there, nor that Heilman couldn't be more effective than most all of the current 5 options, I don't think the Mets are willing right now to tear down what looks like the best pen in the league in order to fix the lack of a league-average starter in the back of the rotation.

I think they will fix that, but by using some other means.

]And I think you ARE aiming low. I mean, do you REALLY think we'll continue to win at a .700 pace--or even a .500 pace--with a 6.75 ERA guy (not that far off from what I expect from Lima over the rest of the season) pitching every fifth day?

Why is it every time we have a disagreement I need to address your putting words in my mouth and talking down to me? As said above -- was this not clear? -- they'll try and get by a few turns with what they got. if/when or before that collapses... they'll make a trade

The rest of your argument seems to bloom from this misconception so I'll stop here.

[Zvon]

I guess no one saw baseball Tonight last night.
They are media hype/spinning the Milledge/Zito deal.
They say the mets have to do this to hang.

No official word from the Mets brass.
They did a phone chat with Cliff Floyd who said NO, dont trade away Milledge. He belongs up here someday with Reyes and Wright as homegrown products. He mentioned bringing up Pelfry. Endorsed promoting from within first, for a quck fix (this was before it was official Zamby was out for good)
He also said that if the Mets can get Zito w/o Milledge being lost to them, they should do it.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

I just don't see any way the Mets can make a blockbuster move for a pitcher. With Martinez and Glavine, it isn't like a top of the rotation guy is needed. It's Victor Zambrano that needs to be replaced, not Pedro.

I'm going to quote myself talking on another board.

] Not that I have anything to base this off of, but I could see them going after one of the Twins guys, Loshe, Silva, or Radke. Minnesota doesnt look like they have much of a chance with the WSox and Indians in the division, and they want to clear a spot in the rotation for Liriano. Radke is probably the guy they'd part with because he's 33 and is making $9 mil. All 3 of them are struggling big time (Radke: 3-3, 7.29 ERA, Silva: 1-5, 8.59 ERA, Loshe: 1-3, 9.71 ERA) however, but they've all been effective in the past. I'm assuming Minnesota could use a guy like Diaz because thier offense is downright anemic (most of their production is coming from Hunter, who sports a .241 AVG/.292 OPB). Again, this is just me playing GM, but it seems like a reasonable way to add a back of the rotation guy.

So, yeah. Diaz pretty much has no place on this team with Nady in right and Milledge waiting. He's a good trade chip to an offense-starved team like Minnesota.

[Centerfield]

I was thinking that since the Mets brass isn't willing (or at least, shouldn't be willing) to deal Pelfrey or Milledge, the most likely option would probably be a guy who makes a lot of money on a bad team.

You mention Radke. Jared Washburn is the guy that came to mind.

[Guest OlerudOwned]

I'd love to get Washburn. Lefthanded, he's been reliable since 2000, and has very good K/BB and WHIP this year. ERA is under 4, and three of his four losses are due to lousy run support.
However, because he's in the first year of a contract with Seattle and is pitching so well I don't know if he'd even hit the market.

[smg58]

Zito's not pitching well enough to justify dealing Milledge for him. And it may be hard to find somebody willing to deal this early on.

I'm willing to cut Pedro some slack from being upset. But Zambrano has to tell the team if he's not all right and continuing to pitch will make it worse. Of course the team has an obligation to determine these things as well, and not simply take the pitcher's word for it.

[metsmarathon]

i'm willing to accept on face value that vz was trying to tough out the pain of a fraying tendon to try to quiet media and fan criticism, and maybe make better of his reputation, and thereby justify the trade that gothim here.

people play through pain for all kinds of stupid reasons, self- and team-detrimental as they often can be. doctors, in that case, can only sit back and watch.

that the mets would have been wise to cut bait already is beside this particular point.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

If they're gunshy about rushing Pelfrey at this point, might be an opportunity to see what this Soler guy is all about.

41 K's, 8 BBs, 3 ERs in 34.2 innings at A and AA so far.

[Theoldmole]

If the A's want to deal Zito's contract, they'll take less than Milledge for him.

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Johnny Dickshot"]Why is it every time we have a disagreement I need to address your putting words in my mouth and talking down to me? As said above -- was this not clear? -- they'll try and get by a few turns with what they got. if/when or before that collapses... they'll make a trade

What words am I putting in your mouth? I quoted you, then addressed the quote.

At any rate, my opinion is that Heilman is our best internal option by far and will be far more valuable in our newly weakened rotation than he he will be in what I consider a strong pen.

I also think that a combination of Maine, Lima & Bannister isn't enough to cover our #4 & 5 slots through the rest of the season, and I'd rather not trade, because I think Heilman would be better than anyone we could get.

We apparently disagree with the state of our bullpen--I just don't think Heilman is so vital that we couldn't stand to lose him.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I'm referring to your interpreting what I said as I "think we'll continue to win at a .700 pace--or even a .500 pace--with a 6.75 ERA guy (not that far off from what I expect from Lima over the rest of the season) pitching every fifth day?," which clearly is not what was said, nor meant.

My point was that Heilman has provided a far more valuable service to the Mets than the fifth starter so far, and that by swapping that piece out you're robbing Peter to pay Paul.

I think they'll leave him there, and try to get by until another solution arises, whether that's a trade, some luck, or through a promotion of a Soler or Pelfrey. They could get to a point where thery'll have to consider Heilman, but I don't think they're there yet.

[metsmarathon]

i think we may have an easier time filling in heilman's bullpen slot than we will filling in zambrano's rotation slot.

also, and i know these things shouldn't really enter into the equation, but since they are all humans out there, it would be awfully unfair to heilman to have a season-long spot open up in the rotation and bring up some minor leaguer to fill it, instead of handing it to heilman, who i would think should have some reason to expect to have earned the opportunity.

i think the best bet would be to bring up heath bell to fill in the bullpen while heilman gets the promotion to zambrano's spot in the rotation.

an other option might be to bring soler into the pen to see what he can do against major leaguers.

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Johnny Dickshot"]I'm referring to your interpreting what I said as I "think we'll continue to win at a .700 pace--or even a .500 pace--with a 6.75 ERA guy (not that far off from what I expect from Lima over the rest of the season) pitching every fifth day?," which clearly is not what was said, nor meant.

Well, okay, but I submit that your meaning wasn't that clear--at least not to me--especially given your lead of:

]Not that I'm aiming low here, but it's easier to replace Zambrano's role (~6 unpredictable innings every 5 days) than Heilman's (~6 impressive do-or-die innings innings every 5 days).

That's the point I was disputing. And yes, you did end with:

]I think they'll leave him there, and try to get by until another solution arises, whether that's a trade, some luck, or through a promotion of a Soler or Pelfrey. They could get to a point where thery'll have to consider Heilman, but I don't think they're there yet.

but what does your prediction have to do with your first point, that it's easier to replace Zambrano's production than Heilman's? If we can get by with replacement level pitchers in the short term, why can't we also get by with them in the long term? Am I just being dense here? [sC=0]

I mean, maybe you're right and that's what the Mets will do, but I think it's a terrible move. We've got one of the toughest 3-week spans of the year here, with 6 games against the resurgenet Phillies, and 3 games each against: a good Brewers team, the Cardinals & the Yankees.

Our #'s 4 & 5 are probably going to start 6 of those games. Frankly, I think any of Lima, Maine & probably Bannister is going to have a hard time making it through 4 innings in any of those start (except possibly the Brewers). I'd MUCH rather see Heilman in there giving us a chance to win in 3 of those games, even if it means having to use Julio instead of Heilman in three or four close games during that span. I suspect that our entire bullpen will be in much better shape at the end of that stretch with Heilman in the rotation than if we'd used two of the other three.

Now, you probably still disagree with me, but I really don't think Julio's such a bad option.

Since April 15:

12.7 IP, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 5 BB, 23 K

Heilman over the entire year:

17.7 IP, 2.04 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 5 BB, 17 K

Maybe Julio will turn into a pumpkin when faced with more responsibility, but I don't think it's a bad bet to take, especially with our other parts doing so well.

Soler or Pelfry are decent options, but I'd rather give them more time in AA before bringing one of them up to the majors.

[smg58]

I just don't see a better short-term solution than bringing up Bell and starting Heilman. I'm not saying I like it, but the only alternatives within the organization appear to be guys who haven't even seen Norfolk yet.

When do Bannister and Maine get off the DL?

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I don't think this Mets administration trusts Bell for whatever reason, though one could be the poor job he did last year (despite good K figures) when they gave him opportunities. There was an article some time ago by Marty Noble where Bell acknowledged as much, thinking he'd be traded sooner than getting another opportunity.

So for the time being I sort of imagine Bell tucked into a wallet along with Victor Diaz, a fallen star like Phillip Humber, and maybe some low-level, high-tool guys like Carlos Gomez, to be used in Omar's next shopping spree.

[Elster88]

Haven't Pelfrey and Soler had a total of 3 combined AA starts? I'd rather they play a little more in the minors than that BEFORE we use them in the majors.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Soler is different from Pelfrey in that he's had a lot of pro experience, and was down in the low minors mainly as a means of getting his arm strength up. IIRC, they pegged him to debut in AA way back when they signed him in 2004, and would have been on the clock to be in the big leagues by now (though the thinking may certainly have changed).

[metirish]

Omar should call the Marlins and ask about Willis, why wait till the summer, just do it Omar.

[duan]

the issue is we now need a 4th & 5th starter. Bannister isn't locked in to the rotation by any means and I think it'd be really foolish for us to think he's going to be a major league quality starter for definite. I go back to the point I made in the IGT; we're at the stage where we're looking at our "EIGHTH BEST" starting pitcher (Maine being six, Lima seven), he's going to be pretty lousy (otherwise he would've been up before now!).

The way I'd balance it is that Heath Bell has a much better chance of adding value to the club then whomever they could drag up (Gonzalez being the obvious candidate) for next Saturday.

If Bell & Heillman work out, then at least when Bannister comes back we've got a replacement for Lima Time (should he implode) or cover for the next bleedin' injury.

And if they really don't think Bell can contribute, it's time to stop keeping him on the 40 man roster.

[Frayed Knot]

The off-days over the next 3 Mondays will help out a bit ... but we'll still need a 4th & a 5th approx once per week depending on how they sort things.

- Bannister's eligible to come off the DL by Friday but Howie Rose kept saying 'another two weeks' (meaning this week & next) before he's ready to pitch -- although it wasn't clear whether that was just his opinion or an informed estimate from someone in the know.

- Maine is, of course, shot until at least 2 weeks from yesterday (Sunday the 21st vs MFY)

- If you figure that Bannister won't be around until say Thurs 18th - the 2nd time it looks like we'll need a #4 guy - then they need to find guys for this Fri & Sat. I'm sure Lima will be one of those; no idea about the other - Oliver? By the next time the back-end guys are needed we should have Bannister and then only one from the Lima/pitcher X duo.

- What I suspect they DON'T want to do is bounce Heilman back & forth between the rotation & the pen so they'll look to others for the time being.

[Elster88]

]- Maine is, of course, shot until at least 2 weeks from yesterday (Sunday the 21st vs MFY)

Can't they retro-DL him back to his start? That's only buying a couple of days, but it could help.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Even assuming that the Mets don't want Bell in the picture, I think they can withstand the loss to the bullpen if Heilman returns to the rotation for a few starts. They can probably give some more innings to Oliver, Julio, and Feliciano. Not ideal, but their rotation is really week until Bannister and Maine return. (And probably still pretty weak afterwards. I'm hoping that Maine will look a lot better when his fingers allow him to throw curveballs, but we'll have to wait and see if that's the case.)