Zambrano: What's Wrong & What Happens Next

[Guest Rotblatt]

Not sounding good for Zambrano.

]"He was crying when he came in," coach Sandy Alomar said. "The pain had to be extensive." Others saw Zambrano holding his right arm straight down and rigid. "Like something was broken," a teammate said. "I hope it was bone," Cliff Floyd said. "That'll heal quicker than something else in there." He and others acknowledged that the name "Tommy John" had run through the clubhouse and their minds. "You see a pitcher holding his elbow, and you think Tommy John [elbow reconstruction] surgery," a player said. "But we don't know. No one said anything to us." There was no indication whether the pain Zambrano experienced was in the same area as or related to the strained flexor muscle he suffered shortly after he joined the Mets in 2004. He made only two appearances following his July 30 acquistion.

As for their apparent plan:

]Jose Lima will replace Maine on Sunday and, because of the off-day Monday, he will be on schedule to replace Zambrano on Friday against the Brewers as well. It could be better. It could be a lot worse. Sometimes bad things happen on good days. Because the Mets are off the next two Mondays, a four-man rotation can suffice until May 21 -- except for one day. And Bannister and Maine could be available by then. Darren Oliver, summoned to relieve Zambrano on Saturday, probably won't be used as a starter.

So Petey, Glavine, Trachsel, Lima. Rinse. Repeat.

I don't like it. I'd rather give Pedro as much rest as we can give him early on. Lima's got good peripherals in AAA but he's given up a whole lot of home runs and his ERA stinks (5.10 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 28 K, 3 BB, 5 HR). Still, he'll do in a pinch. I'd rather use Gonazalez, though (35.7 IP, 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 30 K, 9 BB, 1 HR).

Like most of us, I think Heilman should move to the rotation and Bell should be called up to take his place. We can use Lima as a #5 pitcher, I suppose, but he's NOT a guy I want starting every 4 games. Heilman, on the other hand . . .

With Heilman in the rotation, our pen would be:
Wagner (17 IP, 2.12 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.05 K/9, 4.23 BB/9, 1.60 HR/9)
Sanchez (21 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 7.29 K/9, 3.00 BB/9, 0 HR)
Bell (AAA: 13.3 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 13.5 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 0 HR)
Julio (16.1 IP, 6.07 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 16 K/9, 3.87 BB/9, 2.20 HR/9)
Bradford (10.3 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 10.49 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, 0 HR)
Oliver (16.3 IP, 3.87 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 9.39 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 2.76 HR/9)
Feliciano (7.1 IP, 1.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5 K, 2 BB, 0 HR)

That's plenty good. Julio would replace Heilman's high-leverage innings & Bell would replace Julio's low-leverage innings. We'd keep using Bradford as a ROOGY, Oliver in long relief & Feliciano as a low-leverage LOOGY.

I'd be most happy with that solution, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen in the short term. Maybe they'll consider it when we find out for how long Zambrano will be out.

P.S. Prove me wrong tomorrow, Lima--please, for the love of God.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Not that I'm aiming low here, but it's easier to replace Zambrano's role (~6 unpredictable innings every 5 days) than Heilman's (~6 impressive do-or-die innings innings every 5 days).

IOW, you'll be asking a lot more of Julio in a bigger role than Jose F. Lima in a smaller one. If they wanna use Zambrano's injury as an invitation to upograde the rotatioon they should do it. But they won't, and probably shouldn't, rob Peter to pay Paul here.

I think they'll probably try and get by a few turns with what they got. if/when or before that collapses, they'll call Heath Bell -- and tell him he's been traded for starter.

[Guest Edgy DC]

They have a lot of options here, with first Soler and then Pelfrey growing towards ripeness as the season progresses.

If it's longterm for Zambrano, the sad part is for Zambrano. And perhaps his legacy as a parallel to Bruce Berenyi will be pure even until the end.

[metirish]

Damn I had forgot about Soler, where is he anyway?

[Guest OlerudOwned]

metirish wrote: Damn I had forgot about Soler, where is he anyway?

Probably sleeping after a nice debut with Your Binghamton Mets.

[nymr83]

]"I hope it was bone," Cliff Floyd said.

Me too.

As far as the Mets go...
I'd like to use Lima tommorow and Friday, I don't want to move Heilman out of his role just to make a few spot starts. If a permanent spot in the rotation just opened up THEN i'd put Heilman in unless Soler/Pelfrey is deemed ready. I wouldn't want to see Lima in the long term.

[Guest martin]

Nymr83 wrote: If a permanent spot in the rotation just opened up

it looks like it has. it will be pretty interesting to see how things will turn out. i would guess lima would placehold until pelfrey or soler arrives. i guess the other option is heilman takes over and bell comes up and takes his bullpen spot.

of course there are really two spots in question, the temporarily open bannister/maine slot and the new permanant opening, the zambrano slot. bannister really needs to hurry back. although i do like hearing his POV in the sny studio.

i hope the long term good from this is the quick rise of pelfrey, and by the end of the season we would have pedro, glavine, trax, pelfrey, bannister/soler/maine.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Zambrano is done for 2006

From Newsday:

]Victory's gained, but Victor's lost Zambrano apparently out for season after tearing elbow tendon BY DAVID LENNON Newsday Staff Writer May 7, 2006 The Mets stubbornly refused to remove Victor Zambrano from the rotation despite his struggles during the past two seasons, but now they will be forced to replace him. Zambrano abruptly left yesterday's 6-5 victory over the Braves after striking out Andruw Jones to start the second inning - suddenly sprinting to the dugout - and an MRI later revealed that he suffered a torn flexor tendon in his right elbow, effectively ending his season, according to his agent, Peter Greenberg. "Obviously, Victor's very down," Greenberg said last night. "He was pitching with discomfort and he knew there was something wrong, but he was trying to tough it out. It's the end of the line for this year." Team officials declined to elaborate on Zambrano's condition and planned to announce the diagnosis this morning along with roster moves. Greenberg said Zambrano will speak with the doctor tomorrow to schedule the surgery and might decide then on a second opinion, though that seems unnecessary. "If it's torn, it's torn," Greenberg said. "It's nobody's fault. It's just one of those things. He just has a high threshold for pain." Ramon Castro noticed something different about Zambrano when he warmed up in the bullpen for yesterday's start. He wondered to himself why Zambrano wasn't throwing any sliders - only fastballs and changeups. By the second inning, the Mets understood why, and by then it was too late. Cliff Floyd was under the impression that Zambrano lost track of the outs when the pitcher sprinted from the mound, but the Mets in the dugout realized there was a serious problem. Two pitches earlier, manager Willie Randolph had visited the mound with trainer Ray Ramirez after seeing Zambrano shaking his right arm in a vain attempt to loosen his elbow. They needed to know if he was OK. "I wanted to make sure," Randolph said. "I looked him in the eye three times and told him I didn't want him to take a chance. He told me he was all right." That was the last conversation anyone had with Zambrano before he suddenly disappeared into the dugout. And with a member of their rotation lying in an MRI tube in Manhattan, the Mets didn't feel much like celebrating after yesterday's win, even though it gave them a nine-game lead over the Braves in the NL East standings. The circumstances surrounding the injury did not sit well with Pedro Martinez, who is one of Zambrano's closest friends on the team. Martinez took an angry stance with reporters, even blaming the media's negative coverage for pushing Zambrano to the breaking point. Martinez said Zambrano's right elbow has been hurting since the start of the season, though Zambrano apparently told no one else and forced himself to pitch because he was worried about his reputation. "It was because of the damn pressure you guys put on him," said Martinez, who spoke to the devastated Zambrano before he left for the MRI. "He was crying because his elbow blew up like that. You could see it from far away." Martinez said some even warned Zambrano not to pitch yesterday. When he leaped off the mound, their worst fears had been realized.

[MFS62]

I had a Steve Dalkowski flashback.
I saw him just walk off the mound after throwing a pitch in the ST game in which he blew out his arm. All that wasted talent....

sigh

Later

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

]Martinez took an angry stance with reporters, even blaming the media's negative coverage for pushing Zambrano to the breaking point. Martinez said Zambrano's right elbow has been hurting since the start of the season, though Zambrano apparently told no one else and forced himself to pitch because he was worried about his reputation. "It was because of the damn pressure you guys put on him," said Martinez, who spoke to the devastated Zambrano before he left for the MRI. "He was crying because his elbow blew up like that. You could see it from far away." Martinez said some even warned Zambrano not to pitch yesterday. When he leaped off the mound, their worst fears had been realized.

What horseshit. Blaming the media because the Mets insisted on playing him even after he performed miserably. This is the weakest, most deflective, glaring failure of the team to take ANY responsibility for its own fuckups that I can imagine.

Does Pedro give all the credit for his own success to that same media for putting pressure on him to be a heathy leader on this pitching staff? Would Pedro have spoken up at Victor's Cy Young award celebration dinner this fall if Victor In-Name-Only had won his first C.Y., and say that if the media hadn't pushed him so hard, he would have never pitched so much or so well?

This is just typical of this team's weakness of character and failure to accept responsibility for things that are clearly 100% their own doing. Who made Victor pitch when his arm hurt? Victor, and Peterson, and Randolph and Minaya. That's who. Let them come in for Pedro's tongue-lashing.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

The Kaz-Victor contest now has a victor, and it ain't Victor. Fix this in ten minutes, Peterson, expert handler of pitcher's arms and careers.

Kaz now has 4 times as many victories as Victor In-Name-Only in 2006 and twice as many IP, figures that of course can only get higher as the season goes on. Kaz is now 10th in the AL in ERA, while Victor is probably somewhere in the NL's bottom 5 with a season's ERA of 6.75. The big difference of course is that Victor's arm is now totally screwed up, and Kaz's is healthy, and that was most of the rationale behind swapping them--they feared that Kaz's arm wouldn't hold up. Good one, assholes.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7292

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6752

And once again, Providence has made a decision that the Mets were too inept to make themselves. Now they actually have a decent chance to win the division, thanks to Victor In-Name-Only blowing out his useless arm. I'm reminded of course of their similar obstinate stupidity in keeping Ordonez in the starting lineup, which was fixed only by his injuring himself, allowing them to win the 2000 pennant. Or insisting on keeping Franco as the closer, which decision was made only by Franco's injury that made a closer out of Benitez. People who can't make screaimingly obvious moves, and who rely on Providence to make their lineup changes for them don't reallly deserve to win, in my view, and the Mets are the World's Champions in their history of failing to make the hard yet colossally obvious decisions.

You have no idea how good this will be for the Mets.

Are you telling me that anyone is AAA couldn't come up and pitch better than 6.75? Of course it's a gigantic plus, that will strengthen their pitching staff during the last five months of the year (You don't think Pedro and Glavine are going to keep up this level of pitching all season, do you?) Of course, it would be so much better if the Mets had Kaz in the rotation--but then they said they expected to keep him in the minors through the first part of this year anyway. This may outrank Ryan-Fregosi in the Mets' distinguished history of trading.

[Guest KC]

KInda weird and ballsey for Pedro to even atempt blame the media. That
could come back and bite him in the ass for sure.

BS: >>>Providence has made a decision that the Mets were
too inept to make themselves.<<<

Gotta love that Providence when it works your way. I can't believe the Mess
didn't see this coming. Boo Omar and Willie. Boo everyone blue and orange.

[smg58]

Pelfrey and Soler are in AA. Let's be realistic.

I don't think the fifth starter is less important than the third reliever. I think Heilman is your only short-term option to take Zambrano's spot.

If you don't want Heilman in the rotation, your only other option is a deal.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

KC wrote: Gotta love that Providence when it works your way. .

Forgot about all of Matsui's injuries that helped to delay them signing him to an 8-mil extension for 2007.

Do you think that when they said that Kaz was one of the most durable, injury-proof, gutty players we just misunderstood which Kaz they meant?

Go, Providence!

[Guest Rotblatt]

]Not that I'm aiming low here, but it's easier to replace Zambrano's role (~6 unpredictable innings every 5 days) than Heilman's (~6 impressive do-or-die innings innings every 5 days). IOW, you'll be asking a lot more of Julio in a bigger role than Jose F. Lima in a smaller one. If they wanna use Zambrano's injury as an invitation to upograde the rotatioon they should do it. But they won't, and probably shouldn't, rob Peter to pay Paul here.

The reason Heilman's been in so many tough situations is because we've gotten an average of ~5 innings from our #4 & 5 pitchers. If we had more effective pitchers, we wouldn't need our three-headed monster quite so much--a two-headed monster would be just fine. And, you know, Julio would be a little baby monster with Big Monster upside doing his teething in the middle innings.

And I think you ARE aiming low. I mean, do you REALLY think we'll continue to win at a .700 pace--or even a .500 pace--with a 6.75 ERA guy (not that far off from what I expect from Lima over the rest of the season) pitching every fifth day? Bannister's upside is probably that of a league average pitcher, and who knows if he'll reach that potential this year? He might be no better than replacement level.

40% of our starts will go to big, fat question marks. That's an unacceptable measure of risk, IMO. Heilman (#3 potential, IMO) is an infintely safer bet than any of Bannister, Maine, Lima or Gonzalez, and will probably be more consistent than Soler or Pelfry. And don't forget, one of those guys will have to round out our rotation.

We've got 5 guys in our bullpen (including Heilman) who have been highly effective, 1 guy who's been inconsistently dominant, and 1 guy who's been solid in Bradford. We have a good pen and can afford to let our third-best piece of it go.

[Guest Rotblatt]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: What horseshit. Blaming the media because the Mets insisted on playing him even after he performed miserably. This is the weakest, most deflective, glaring failure of the team to take ANY responsibility for its own fuckups that I can imagine.

I agree it's a stupid thing to say, but I don't think it's fair to blame the team for Pedro's comments.

What DID Mets management have to say about this, anyway? Did they take any responsibility? In retrospect, it makes sense that Zambrano had been pitching injured--it definitely explains why he became more hittable.

]Who made Victor pitch when his arm hurt? Victor, and Peterson, and Randolph and Minaya. That's who. Let them come in for Pedro's tongue-lashing.

Yeah, I agree with that. I wonder if this is Petey's backhanded way of dissing management. I mean, since he can't come right out and SAY it, he'll blame "the media."

Or am I giving Petey too much credit because I happen to think he's a genius?

And what does it mean that Petey and Oliver both knew that Zambrano had elbow problems but his coaches didn't?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Rotblatt wrote: Or am I giving Petey too much credit because I happen to think he's a genius? And what does it mean that Petey and Oliver both knew that Zambrano had elbow problems but his coaches didn't?

KC likes to pretend that every fuckup occurs out of any context whatsoever, Rotblatt, and that by providing a context of fuckups in which this one (whichever one we're discussing) occurred, I'm expanding every thread into a stupid indiscrimnating excuse for an anti-Mets rant, but in truth you need to look at the bg picture to understand how this fuckup (which as I argue isn't actually harmful to the Mets) typifies a policy by which the Mets succeed (on the rare occasions of their success over the last half-decade) only when Providence interferes with their ability to carry out their plans. They were prepared to ride out Victor's 2006 with him pitching 180+ innings, which would have bitten their ass sooner or later. Now, not so much.

But put it in the context of "Would you rather have Kaz or Victor In-Name-Only now" and you clearly see the puddle of failure-piss at the Mets' feet.

If you have eyes, that is.

And are willing to open them.

And think about the meaning of what you see.

[Guest KC]

I'm not pretending anything. I thought your citing of Providential Intervention
was amusing. Don't make everything so personal, please.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

KC wrote: I'm not pretending anything. I thought your citing of Providential Intervention was amusing. Don't make everything so personal, please.

Not personal at all. I'm just providing a context--a gigantic landscape, really--of screwups and failed CYA attempts to view this in, and you keep on implying that all I'm doing is ranting about my irrelevant and irrational hatred for the Mets.

Stop writing stupid overgeneralized shit like "Boo Omar and Willie. Boo everyone blue and orange" and I won't need to defend it. As always, it's your call. But please don't kick me in the nuts and then say, "Bret hurt my foot with those nasty testicles of his."

[Elster88]

The Julio-Benson trade now looks even worse....no matter what you think of Julio....just because another arm in the rotation would be helpful. And the Mets were pretty stupid this offseason if they figured every starter would stay healthy all year. We haven't even gotten to Pedro's annual three week injury. What happens when we hit that?

Glavine-Trachsel-Bannister-Maine-Lima

[Elster88]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: The Kaz-Victor contest now has a victor, and it ain't Victor. Fix this in ten minutes, Peterson, expert handler of pitcher's arms and careers. Kaz now has 4 times as many victories as Victor In-Name-Only in 2006 and twice as many IP, figures that of course can only get higher as the season goes on. Kaz is now 10th in the AL in ERA, while Victor is probably somewhere in the NL's bottom 5 with a season's ERA of 6.75. The big difference of course is that Victor's arm is now totally screwed up, and Kaz's is healthy, and that was most of the rationale behind swapping them--they feared that Kaz's arm wouldn't hold up. Good one, assholes. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7292 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6752

I wanted to post my own "I told you so" message (aimed at Mets' management of course, I don't remember anyone here saying Kazmir/Zambrano was a good trade), but I think Bret's will do just nicely.

[Elster88]

]KInda weird and ballsey for Pedro to even atempt blame the media. That could come back and bite him in the ass for sure.

I was thinking the same thing, but I wonder if it will bite him. He won't care what the media prints, and I doubt any fans will turn on him. If anything, many will probably swallow the message whole and believe it themselves. One of our own, while not believing Pedro's story, is leaning toward it thinking it is just a way of Pedro taking a veiled shot at management.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Elster88 wrote: Mets were pretty stupid

Radical notion, Elster. I'll need to mull that one over.

Have you got any evidence? SAT scores? IQ results? You can't just make a flat statement like that, on the flimsy basis of having pathetically inept pitchers cast into a starting role in the rotation.

I happen to know that Willie got a 78 average in 8th grade--he's a super-genius. And Omar once made it to "honorable mention" in a public speaking course.

How dare you?

[Elster88]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: Do you think that when they said that Kaz was one of the most durable, injury-proof, gutty players we just misunderstood which Kaz they meant?

To be fair to the Mets, every scout who ever saw him said the exact same thing.

[Elster88]

Bret Sabermetric wrote: ="Elster88"]Mets were pretty stupid Radical notion, Elster. I'll need to mull that one over. Have you got any evidence? SAT scores? IQ results? You can't just make a flat statement like that, on the flimsy basis of having pathetically inept pitchers cast into a starting role in the rotation. I happen to know that Willie got a 78 average in 8th grade--he's a super-genius. And Omar once made it to "honorable mention" in a public speaking course. How dare you?

Is there a point to this post?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Elster88 wrote: ="Bret Sabermetric"]Do you think that when they said that Kaz was one of the most durable, injury-proof, gutty players we just misunderstood which Kaz they meant? To be fair to the Mets, every scout who ever saw him said the exact same thing.

I'll need a notorized statement from "every scout who ever saw him" before we can admit this into evidence.

(Is there ever a point to any of my posts? They're all just stupid B.S.)


OE: Having dual Maz/Elster avatars is dangerously gay.

[Guest KC]

E: >>>Is there a point to this post?<<<

Yes, the point is Bret can over-generalize - I can't.

Rinse, repeat.

[Elster88]

It's good to have you back, Bret.

[Elster88]

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Ramon Castro noticed something different about Zambrano when he warmed up in the bullpen for yesterday's start. He wondered to himself why Zambrano wasn't throwing any sliders - only fastballs and changeups. By the second inning, the Mets understood why, and by then it was too late. ...... "I wanted to make sure," Randolph said. "I looked him in the eye three times and told him I didn't want him to take a chance. He told me he was all right." ....... The circumstances surrounding the injury did not sit well with Pedro Martinez, who is one of Zambrano's closest friends on the team. Martinez took an angry stance with reporters, even blaming the media's negative coverage for pushing Zambrano to the breaking point. Martinez said Zambrano's right elbow has been hurting since the start of the season, though Zambrano apparently told no one else and forced himself to pitch because he was worried about his reputation. "It was because of the damn pressure you guys put on him," said Martinez, who spoke to the devastated Zambrano before he left for the MRI. "He was crying because his elbow blew up like that. You could see it from far away."

I think we can mark Victor telling Willie that he was fine as a lie.

The pain was enough that he wouldn't throw a slider, yet after Willie asked him he said he was fine. Sounds like Victor was lying.

Of course, it's the media's fault when a player refuses to mention pain to the manager. OE: Not just refusing to mention pain, but lying about it!

------

Unrelated note: What on earth does "I looked him in the eye three times" mean? Did Willie ask Victor if he was okay three times? Does Willie normally not make eye contact on the mound, so looking at Victor's eyes three time was supposed to hold extra significance? Or does Zambrano usually look down like a small child (Here I'm picturing Willie crouching three times to make eye contact as Zambrano tries looks away.) I didn't see any crouching at the game yesterday so I doubt the last, at least, but I'm still confused here.

[DocTee]

]And perhaps his legacy as a parallel to Bruce Berenyi will be pure even until the end.

I was thinking more Tim Leary than Bruce Berenyi-- unless VZ is gay.