Zambrano: What's Wrong & What Happens Next

[Centerfield]

It probably doesn't make a whole lot of difference what the Mets do in the short term, whether it be Gonzalez or Oliver or whoever...they're not going to find any long-term solution there.

This team needs to trade for a starter...a #3 if possible. And they'll have to do it eventually if they are going to make a run this year. It doesn't have to be this week, this month, or even before the All-Star break, but they're going to need one. In fact, they probably needed one even before Zambrano went down.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

]If we can get by with replacement level pitchers in the short term, why can't we also get by with them in the long term? Am I just being dense here?

No, not dense.

They can get by anything in the short term, but they'll get nicked up no matter what they do. I think the longterm solution comes from somewhere else.

Just in the short term, it's not as if we could expect Heilman to get up to speed as a starter right away either. So as he rests up in anticipation of a start there will be innings you're not getting from him as a bullpenner with Abreu & Howard to retire on the road -- plus innings you'll need from lesser relievers as Heilman himself winds down after 5 IP in his first few starts back.

And knowing the Mets they'll eventually they'll make a trade for a starter anyway then need to shove Heilman back into the bullpen.

Again, I'm not saying one solution is necessarily superior to another but that I think the team will do all they can, and may be wise, to try and avoid having the disruption in the rotation to lead to disruption in the bullpen.

[Guest Rotblatt]

="Johnny Dickshot"]They can get by anything in the short term, but they'll get nicked up no matter what they do. I think the longterm solution comes from somewhere else.

Thanks for the clarification!

I agree that they'll get nicked up in the short term, no matter what (unless we make a trade in the next 3 days, of course), since, as you say, Heilman will have to get stretched out if we do go to him.

As far as the long-term solution, I'm not convinced we'll find a better bet than Heilman--at least, not without giving up a top prospect (something I'd hate to see us do, barring a truely lopsided trade).

]And knowing the Mets they'll eventually they'll make a trade for a starter anyway then need to shove Heilman back into the bullpen.

True that. If we move Heilman to the rotation, I want us to keep him there unless something disastorous happens to Wagner. Hopefully Mets Management feels the same, but I kind of doubt it.

]Again, I'm not saying one solution is necessarily superior to another but that I think the team will do all they can, and may be wise, to try and avoid having the disruption in the rotation to lead to disruption in the bullpen.

I see your points, and I think I agree with you, but only if we can scrounge up someone who is a good bet to be superior to Heilman in the rotation.

I have little faith that we'll be able to do that, and think that the longer we wait to make a good trade, the more we shoot ourselves in the foot by not getting Heilman stretched out.

[Guest abogdan]

What about Dontrelle Willis? I've heard he's available. Maybe Florida will be willing to toss in Miguel Cabrera as well.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Is it crazy to think that replacing Heilman in the bullpen with

• a closer-to-ready-for-primetime Jorge Julio, plus


• a "dammit, I'm going to stick this time" Heath Bell, plus


• marginally increased responsibilities for Pedro Feliciano and Darren Oliver

will cost the Mets more wins than the apparent difference between Lima and Heilman in the rotation?

I'm cool with giving Lima one more start to make a show of himself, but I consider him not the replacement for Zambrano, but the replacement for Maine who is the replacement for Bannister. In other words, he's just keeping a seat warm, and may well not have a place on this roster even if he pitches briliantly his next start.

I'd dislike seeing the Mets move to get a starter without giving Heilman at least three turns to prove the answer is in-house.

We see what that changeup of Heilman's can do to 10-15 batters every five days; aren't we curious to see what it can do to 25-35?

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

Edgy DC wrote: aren't we curious to see what it can do to 25-35?

WWSB answered this one loud and clear in Spring Training.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

I never thought I'd argue that a relief pitcher is more "important" than a starter but here I am.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

Unlike Johnny, I'm not ready to make that leap.

[Centerfield]

The one thing that puts me on Johnny's side is Aaron Heilman is far from a proven commodity as a starter. This is not Dennis Eckersley we're talking about here, this is a guy who's record is spotted.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Sure, but the same logic can applied to saying his record as a pitcher is spotted. But, as a starter and as a reliever and as a pitcher, he's trended upwards. Sharply.

I mean, he had a 4.71 ERA as a starter last year (seven starts)*, and that's no good, but part of that is the one game getting raked by Florida after shutting them down a week before and saying, "Now I have to go out and find a way to beat them next week.

I suspect there was a cahnfidence thing going on there and he was convinced he caught them by surprise and could only succeed by continuing to stay ahead of the opposition and re-inventing himself.

I think he's subsequently gotten into his head that his stuff is good enough to work game after game with only minor adjustments. I sure want to see how far he can take that.

Yeah, things are going good in the bullpen. But I want to rock that boat, shake that tree, wake that dog. I want another starting pitcher out of there NOW!!!!

*Lima had a 6.99 ERA in 32 starts.

[Guest ABG]

So I was an advocate for keeping Heilman in the bullpen in ST, but I think the right move now is to give him a shot in the rotation.

What's changed?

Duaner Sanchez has changed. Well, not that he's changed but he's changed my perception of the bullpen. Heading into the season, I figured he and Heilman were a nice combination of guys, maybe one of which would really get the job done in the 7th/8th inning. But since we didn't know exactly what we had in Sanchez, the Heilman insurance policy was necessary.

Now? We're looking at a top tier setup guy, one who doesn't need an insurance policy. So while I certainly recognize that the late inning, high pressure situations that we give Heilman aren't going away--and that they'd now be taken on by a lesser pitcher--having Sanchez as I know him now makes me more comfortable with the pen as a whole.

[Theoldmole]

Some thoughts from Adam Rubin:

]Kris Benson: Perhaps Minaya could swing a deal where Mr. Benson comes back to Mets but Mrs. Benson stays in Baltimore. Scott Kazmir: We're sure Rick Peterson would only need about seven minutes to fix the Tampa Bay hurler. Who knows? Maybe the D-Rays would be willing to take Lastings Milledge and David Wright off the Mets' hands. Tom Seaver: You know "The Franchise," who no longer calls Met games on TV is dying to get back into the spotlight. Besides, he's gotta be better than Zambrano. Mr. Met: Have you seen him throw those T-shirts into the crowd? What an arm. Besides, he's gotta be better than Zambrano. Roger Clemens: Mike Piazza's gone and you know if the Mets offer him 10 cents more than the Astros do, The Rocket will be pitching at Shea. Anthony Velazquez: High school hurler has more perfect games (2) this spring than Mets have had in 45 years. Al Leiter: Mabye Carlos Delgado could convince the Yankee analyst how great it is to play in New York.

[Guest Bret Sabermetric]

TheOldMole wrote: Some thoughts from Adam Rubin: ]Kris Benson: Perhaps Minaya could swing a deal where Mr. Benson comes back to Mets but Mrs. Benson stays in Baltimore. Scott Kazmir: We're sure Rick Peterson would only need about seven minutes to fix the Tampa Bay hurler. Who knows? Maybe the D-Rays would be willing to take Lastings Milledge and David Wright off the Mets' hands. Tom Seaver: You know "The Franchise," who no longer calls Met games on TV is dying to get back into the spotlight. Besides, he's gotta be better than Zambrano. Mr. Met: Have you seen him throw those T-shirts into the crowd? What an arm. Besides, he's gotta be better than Zambrano. Roger Clemens: Mike Piazza's gone and you know if the Mets offer him 10 cents more than the Astros do, The Rocket will be pitching at Shea. Anthony Velazquez: High school hurler has more perfect games (2) this spring than Mets have had in 45 years. Al Leiter: Mabye Carlos Delgado could convince the Yankee analyst how great it is to play in New York.

That "seven minutes" shit stopped being funny about--No, wait, it's stll funny. It';ll stop being funny seven years after Peterson is dead.

No, it will always be funny. It's comedy gold, Jerry, comedy gold.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

A more lucid take from Rubin's Blog:

]By the way, Peterson has long felt betrayed by the "10 minutes" comment being leaked. But I have it on good authority that he also felt it was purposely misrepresented to shift the blame to him after the ill-fated trade. The pitching coach was asked if he could correct a specific mechanical issue with Zambrano's delivery, and he answered on an internal conference call with that comment.

[Elster88]

Comedy gold was the picture used in the TEN!!!! thread.

[Elster88]

Johnny Dickshot wrote: A more lucid take from Rubin's Blog: ]By the way, Peterson has long felt betrayed by the "10 minutes" comment being leaked. But I have it on good authority that he also felt it was purposely misrepresented to shift the blame to him after the ill-fated trade. The pitching coach was asked if he could correct a specific mechanical issue with Zambrano's delivery, and he answered on an internal conference call with that comment.

Just a CYA paragraph written for Peterson by a blue-and-orange-Piazza-footie-jammies-wearing-Met-fan sycophant. That fucking bum should never have said anything in jest because every word you ever speak should be taken completely literally and referenced every day for the rest of your life. (SC = very high)

[Guest old original jb]

I think that the Mets should leave the bullpen alone, Heilman's desire to start notwithstanding. I agree with those who feel that pulling Heilman out of the pen will be robbing Peter to Pay Paul, and in this case Peter is the best thing we have going.

To me, it seems that the presence of not one but three excellent setup men (Sanchez, Heilman, and Julio) is having a huge impact on games. These guys have been so good that I think it's even cost Wagner save oppportunities by preventing close games.

Maybe it's a luxury, but because of it, I get a much different feeling watching Mets games.

When the Mets are behind in the early going, I no longer feel as discouraged, because I know that their 6th, 7th, and 8th inning bullpen is going to be better than what the other team has, providing a real chance to catch up. I don't worry about Pedro or Glavine having to leave early, and if the backside of the rotation just keeps the Mets in the game, I feel like the mets will probably win in the mid/late innings.

If there are reasonable alternatives not named Lima who do not require trading a marquee prospect (Milledge), they should go for it. I'd rather have two average starters in the 4/5 spots and keep the bullpen as is than disrupt the bullpen to see if Heilman can be a better than average starter for a sustained period. I'm willing to take a chance that by later in the season, Soler or Pelfrey will be ready to step up and give the kind of depth to the rotation that is needed for the post season.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I guet a good feeling watching Met games when an effective or better starter is going out there every day.

ON the 1986 Mets, Doug Sisk was the number-three reliever, and Randy Niemann was number four --- a personnel alignment that would have some passionate folks self-immolating but for the quality of the starting rotation making it a non-issue.

Whitey Herzog, managing the primary rival, was proud to have built the staff backwards, having a ton of depth in the pen, but John Tudor and a bunch of interchangeable role players in the rotation. There's an argument for that, but, if it's an option, I say get your best guys the most number of innings. You'll need effective fewer guys at the end of games.

[Guest old original jb]

Edgy DC wrote: There's an argument for that, but, if it's an option, I say get your best guys the most number of innings. You'll need effective fewer guys at the end of games.

If you can have effective starters consistently go deep into games, of course that's great. But its not clear the mets will be in a position to do that, making the pen all the more important.

The Mets best starters have reasons not to go as deep into games, and I'm not convinced that Heilman switching mid season to a starter role will be such a huge improvement over what they had or could have at the bottom of the rotation that it makes sense to dismantle such a great pen.

[Guest sharpie]

Sporting News floats a rumor about Odalis Perez coming to New York. He's out on bereavement leave now and has been dreadful so far but has put up decent numbers in the past. He is signed to major money for a couple more years, though.

[Elster88]

old original jb wrote: To me, it seems that the presence of not one but three excellent setup men (Sanchez, Heilman, and Julio) is having a huge impact on games.

A little early to call Julio excellent. He's been better of late, but that doesn't mean the first few appearances never happened.

[Guest old original jb]

Elster88 wrote: ="old original jb"]To me, it seems that the presence of not one but three excellent setup men (Sanchez, Heilman, and Julio) is having a huge impact on games. A little early to call Julio excellent. He's been better of late, but that doesn't mean the first few appearances never happened.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but he's been good in the past as well. Although your point underscores my point that it is not a good idea to weaken the bullpen.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

He's also been horrible in the past.

While we can't assume he'll always be bad, we can't exactly call him excellent.

I am willing to rely on Julio a bit more, though. As I said earlier, between him, Oliver, and Feliciano, the Mets can bear the loss of Heilman in the bullpen.

[Elster88]

old original jb wrote: ="Elster88"] old original jb wrote: To me, it seems that the presence of not one but three excellent setup men (Sanchez, Heilman, and Julio) is having a huge impact on games. A little early to call Julio excellent. He's been better of late, but that doesn't mean the first few appearances never happened. Maybe it's wishful thinking, but he's been good in the past as well. Although your point underscores my point that it is not a good idea to weaken the bullpen.

I hope he's better too, but his good year that you refer to was in 2001, so I'm not holding my breath. But you're right, to put it in context of the original discussion, it does underscore your point that maybe we shouldn't pull out Heilman while the pen is doing so well....and while we're not sure what Julio is going to give us.

But, as someone else noted, we're at the point where we're looking at using our eighth-best organizational starter, not even counting Heilman. And personally, I'd rather Pelfrey and Soler get some more work in the minors.

It's a tough call and there are arguments both ways. I'd lean toward leaving the bullpen alone for now, myself.

[Guest Rotblatt]

sharpie wrote: Sporting News floats a rumor about Odalis Perez coming to New York. He's out on bereavement leave now and has been dreadful so far but has put up decent numbers in the past. He is signed to major money for a couple more years, though.

Perez (who turns 29 in June) is making $7.25 in 2006 and is owed $7.75M next year, plus a $9M club option for 2008 with a $1.5M buyout. We'd definitely be overpaying him were we to sign him, based on pretty inconsistent results:

1999 (Braves): 93 IP, 72 ERA+
2001 (Braves): 95.3 IP, 90 ERA+
2002 (Dodgers): 222.3 IP, 126 ERA+, 1.54 BB/9, 6.28 K/9, 0.992 WHIP, 0.85 HR/9
2003 (Dodgers): 185.3 IP, 89 ERA+, 2.23 BB/9, 6.85 K/9, 1.28 WHIP, 1.36 HR/9
2004 (Dodgers): 196.3 IP, 127 ERA+, 2.02 BB/9, 5.87 K/9, 1.14 WHIP, 1.19 HR/9
2005 (Dodgers): 108.7 IP, 89 ERA+, 2.32 BB/9, 6.13 K/9, 1.26 WHIP, 1.08 HR/9
2006: 30 IP, 6.90 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.70 WHIP, 1.2 HR/9

Good control & average K numbers across the board. It looks like the big difference in his results is BABIP and HR/9, so there's probably some luck involved there. The Dodger's defense has been consistently good in terms of DER, so that doesn't explain the differences.

Predictibly, he does much better at home--3.47 ERA, 1.15 WHIP v. 4.86, 1.36 WHIP since 2001.

PECOTA thinks he'll be a'ight but nothing to write home about:

2006: 148 IP, 3.93 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.10 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 1.0 HR/9.
2007: 139.7 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9

I'm not wild about him, but I think he'd do better than Victor would have and would look okay as our #4 guy.

Heilman would still be my top choice, but we could do worse than Perez.

The problems, as I see them are:

1. Is he healthy?
2. What will it take to get him?

[Elster88]

It can't take that much to get him if he's owed all that much. I'd rather wait and see what else pops up as the trade deadline draws near.

[Guest sharpie]

Don't think the Mets would need to give up much, talentwise, to get Perez. The money would be the sticking point, I would think.

[Guest Yancy Street Gang]

I also wonder about your second question.

Since he's high-salaried, the cost to get him (in players) will be related to how much salary the Mets take on. If they decide to get Odalis, I'd prefer them to take on more salary and give up less talent.

[Guest Johnny Dickshot]

Inconsistent and didn't get along with Jim Tracy last year.

[Guest sharpie]

Thing is the Dodgers would want to move him quickly. They brought up Aaron Sele over the weekend and he pitched well and they'd like to slot him in instead of Perez (don't know how long this bereavement leave lasts). I'm not advocating for him, necessarily, he just seems like a better option than Lima, etc. I'd give him a pass on not getting along with Tracey. The inconsistency does bother me.