The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[batmagadanleadoff]

How things change. Two or three years ago, you woulda figured that Pete would be in line to score one of the biggest contracts in baseball history.

 

no one thought this.

 

I doubt that the Mets soured on Alonso so fast, if at all. He led all major leaguers in HR's in 2019, his rookie season, while playing half his games in a pitcher's park and had hit more HR's than anybody else after his first four seasons.

 

The Mets didn't even think that back in 2019 or they would've kept him in the minors another few weeks to control 2025.

 

 

That's not why Alonso was allowed to debut on Opening Day of his rookie season, 2019. Fred Wilpon couldn't give a flying **** that Alonso's free-agent eligibility would come a year earlier because Wilpon knew that his days as Mets owner were numbered and that 2019 would very likely be his last full season as owner. So Wilpon went all in on the 2019 season and Alonso's early free agency was going to be the next owner's problem. Fred Wilpon wouldn't be around for that. That's the same reason why deGrom was given an opt-out clause -- because by the time deGrom would be in position to exercise that clause, Wilpon wasn't gonna be around anymore. That would be the next owner's problem. That's also why the Mets signed Robinson Cano to a multi-year back-loaded contract that was guaranteed to age terribly. Because, once again, Wilpon wasn't gonna be around when Cano was guaranteed to collect eight figures while age-reduced to a scrub. That bad contract was also gonna be the next owner's problem. And that's why the Mets traded away a promising prospect with a high ceiling, Jared Kelenic. Because by the time Kelenic panned out, assuming he ever did, Wilpon wasn't gonna be around to benefit from Kelenic's prowess. Wilpon put every last one of his chip on the 2019 season because he knew that for himself, there wasn't gonna be a 2020 season.

[Frayed Knot]

no one thought this. A bad defensive 1Bman entering his age 30 season? His last two have been slightly down, so maybe his projections have taken a slight hit, but mostly his skillset is the same.

 

From page one of this very thread [Feb 3rd, 2023]: "Jim Duquette, on Mets Hot Stove, suggested eight years, $240 million."

And there were other similar type suggestions, although keep in mind some of them were based on the idea of signing him to a long term deal a season or two ago before he hit FA-gency and thus was younger and therefore more likely to justify a longer deal.

This thread is approaching two years old at this point so the topic of Alonso's contract has been an ongoing one here, and also a bit of a moving target as conditions on the ground shift. Also, not a bad defensive player at all. Now an average-ish glove 1B-man doesn't really add a whole lot his overall value, but nor does he hurt you there.

Oh, and welcome to the 'pool.

I remember your brother Tony. Used to eat his cereal all the time.

[Lefty Specialist]

I think Boras' insistence on $200M, at least publicly, scared off a lot of potential suitors. No one was going to want to throw that kind of money at Pete, so they went seeking their first basemen elsewhere. He may have overestimated Uncle Steve's largesse. I still think a deal gets done, but at a far lower level, with opt-outs so everyone can save face. The Mets are going to need a first baseman one way or the other.

[Edgy MD]

I appreciate DanielTigerSS arriving with his (or her) own avatar image. I'm embarrassed that newbies who don't upload a profile pic get that stupid toilet pic.

I don't know why the pic defaults to the toity. It seems like we're hazing the newbies, but I promise that we are not.

[Frayed Knot]

All is quiet, post New Year's Day

[whippoorwill]

How things change. Two or three years ago, you woulda figured that Pete would be in line to score one of the biggest contracts in baseball history.

 

no one thought this. A bad defensive 1Bman entering his age 30 season? His last two have been slightly down, so maybe his projections have taken a slight hit, but mostly his skillset is the same. The Mets didn't even think that back in 2019 or they would've kept him in the minors another few weeks to control 2025.

What surprises me is that so many teams already signed 1B elsewhere. I thought for sure there would be a front office or two that would've identified Mets-specific inefficiencies with Alonso's approach and found projected improvement in their organization. It's not like the bat speed or exit velocity has fallen off, he's just seemingly chosen to hack at different ones the last two years.

I thought you’d be a Pirates fan!

[kcmets]

All is quiet, post New Year's Day

Mets world in wait, Pete's on his way

[MFS62]

To quote the sergeant in Stripes, "I'm getting too old for this ****".

Piss, or get off the pot, Pete.

Now you're just being obstinate.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Is there any evidence that he is being any such thing?

[MFS62]

Is there any evidence that he is being any such thing?

 

I dunno.

He strikes me as the child who is being offered candy. He wants it, but won't take it to spite his parents.

What is a better word for that?

Later

[kcmets]

Piss, or get off the pot, Pete.

 

Pete sits to pee? We're learning new details hourly!

[whippoorwill]

Well isn’t he Piss Missle Pete? That would be a standy uppy thing.

[MFS62]

An old expression.

I said I was too old for this ****. ^

Later

[Edgy MD]

Is there any evidence that he is being any such thing?

 

I dunno.

He strikes me as the child who is being offered candy. He wants it, but won't take it to spite his parents.

What is a better word for that?

 

"Insupportable."

[kcmets]

And it's, '**** or get off the pot' -- not piss. Not to pick

nits or nuttin'...

And I'm pretty sure Pete is not the one holding up him

signing on the dotted line here or anywhere.

[Bob Alpacadaca]

As much as I would love to have this wrapped up yesterday, spring training doesn’t even start for six weeks. Pete’s earned the right to try and get the best deal he can for what he thinks his talents are worth. He also has an agent who has demonstrated patience with signing contracts - thought that seemed to backfire for four of them last year.

If Pete thinks his talents are worth X dollars over X years, I don’t have a problem with him trying to get that. And as much as I love Pete and want him back, if the Mets brass feels it can’t wait any more and need to move on, I respect that, too.

[ashie62]

I often see Pete turned down a Mets offer of 158 million

Just speculation??

I don't think Pete is being obstinate at all. Boras maybe, not likely Pete

[The Hot Corner]

When it comes to Pete's free agency, Boras works for Pete. Boras will advise him and do all he can to get the best possible offer for Pete, but the ultimate decision of what is enough and where he wishes to sign is Pete's. Most players opt for the most money, but some do consider where they wish to live and play.

The Mets need to be competitive with their offer, but they do not need to bid against themselves, or necessarily be the biggest offer when it comes to money and years. If Pete truly wishes to remain in New York, then they should be able to come to terms that should be satisfactory to both sides. It would be great to have him back next year to team up with Lindor, Vientos, Nimmo, and Soto, but not if he is expecting $30-35 mil. /yr. over 5-7 years. Pete is a valuable, but he is not nealy in the class (imho) of Lindor and Soto.

[Fman99]

As long as Alex Bregman is also unsigned, and there's another option on the table in free agency that could bring a (relatively) comparable amount of offense from the 1B/3B positions, I'm not sweating this.

[Lefty Specialist]

You do get the feeling that the Alonso/Bregman deadlock will break as soon as one of them is signed. I'd think that Bregman would be Plan B if Pete goes elsewhere. If Pete signs with the Mets, Bregman's market contracts. And if Bregman signs elsewhere, Plan B is out the window and they kind of have to sign Pete. I can't see them going into the season with Vientos at first and some combination of Baty/Mauricio/Acuna at third.

Just wish it was over already. I'm sure Pete does too.

[whippoorwill]

Then he should sign

[Edgy MD]

I can't see them going into the season with Vientos at first and some combination of Baty/Mauricio/Acuna at third.

 

Maybe not, but that is how Vientos emerged.

I dunno. They sure keep their cards close.

[The Hot Corner]

I am still hoping that the Mets and Alonso can come to terms on a 4-5 year deal. Having Bregman at third and moving Vientos to first is a good plan B.

The line up would definitely miss Alonso's power, but the overall drop off in offensive production with Bregman not as significant and one might expect and the infield defense would definitely be improved.

I hope to see Pete back manning first base this season, but if he goes elsewhere and the Mets get Bregman for third base, then I believe they will still be in good shape offensively.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Jim Bowden, writing for The Athletic, predicts where the remaining top free agents will land.

 

4. Pete Alonso, 1B

Age: 30

WAR: 2.6

OPS+: 123

Agent: Boras Corporation

The staredown between the Mets’ brass and Scott Boras over an Alonso contract is starting to become epic. Who blinks first — owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns or the superstar agent? The Mets do not want to move beyond their last offer and don’t think they have to because the first-base market has dried up. There are not a lot of options left for Alonso after the Yankees traded for Paul Goldschmidt, the Guardians signed Carlos Santana, the Diamondbacks traded for Josh Naylor and the Astros inked Christian Walker.

The Mariners would be a great fit, but they’re not in on any of the big free agents. The Angels have been mentioned as a possibility, but does anyone think they’d do another big — and potentially bad — contract for a 30-year-old power hitter after the Anthony Rendon, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols contracts all failed?

The Giants might be the only other viable option. Signing Alonso to a three-year deal with a high AAV and opt-outs might make some sense for them if they can stomach losing the draft pick compensation. (Alonso was one of 12 players to turn down the qualifying offer.) Maybe Alonso would go that type of route and prove a point to the Mets in the process.

However, at the end of the day, I just can’t see the Polar Bear in another uniform — at least not this year.

Prediction: Mets

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6039098/2025/01/06/mlb-free-agents-team-signing-predictions/

[Centerfield]

Of the other landing spots mentioned:

1. Giants: Alonso makes no sense for the Giants. They have 1B prospect Bryce Eldridge. He's their top prospect (#35 overall) and has the potential to be a masher. ETA is 2026. If the Giants are interested at all, I can't imagine they want anything other than a short term deal.

2. Angels: The Angels also have a top prospect at 1B. Nolan Schanuel is not as highly rated as Bryce Eldridge (#95, MLB Pipeline), but he's already made his debut. An article recently suggested that the Angels might consider a position change for Schanuel if they signed Alonso, but there's no one suggesting that this might be a possibility other than that one article's author. The author: Jon Heyman.

3. Mariners: Seattle certainly has a need for offense, and has a hole at 1B. But Seattle just doesn't really play in this end of the free agent market and are said to be looking to shed salary. I guess in theory these guys are a possibility, but the likelihood of Jerry DiPoto suddenly deciding to give an over 30 declining 1B a long term deal doesn't seem all that high.

I was thinking that another factor working against Alonso might be the idea that other clubs believe that whatever they offer, the Mets will match anyway. So why even bother.

[metirish]

The last few lines are the standout comments

Where will Pete Alonso sign?

Remember in 2019 when Bryce Harper and Manny Machado didn’t sign their $300 million contracts until after the start of spring training?

Well, the same could happen again.

For Alonso, a return to the New York Mets seems to be the likely outcome, but on a deal shorter than Alonso desires. The Mets, after already committing $918.1 million this winter, including a stunning $765 million for Soto, are holding their ground on Alonso. While they’d like a reunion with the four-time All-Star who has hit 226 home runs, they simply aren’t willing to give him a long-term deal for at least $200 million, not after his career-worst .788 OPS last season. Then again, no one else is either. Teams are reluctant to eclipse Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162 million contract and Matt Olson’s eight-year, $168 million deal while Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, uses Prince Fielder’s nine-year, $214 million contract with Detroit Tigers in 2012 as a comparison

From Bob Nightingale

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2025/01/07/mlb-rumors-pete-alonso-alex-bregman-news/77499267007/

[metsmarathon]

And if I was a team that boras presented that comp to, I’d present it right back at him as why he’s not getting the big ass deal.

[Lefty Specialist]

Yeah, how'd that Prince Fielder 9-year deal work out, Scottyboy?

[Frayed Knot]

Freddie's and Olsen's deals are still TBD on how they work out long term.

- Freddie is, first of all, a markedly better player and for much longer than Alonso. But also was two years older when he signed and so could be approaching the downward slope soon as he gets ready to hit his age 35 season with three years down and three more to go on his contract.

- Olson was two years younger than Pete is now at the time of his trade/signing by Atlanta. He had the best full season of his career in year one of the deal [994/164 OPS/OPS+] but then fell to his worst this past year [790/118]. Nine months older than Pete, he's got five guaranteed seasons remaining plus one team option year.

- Prince had to retire for medical reasons at age 32 but had already started a downward trend five years (and two teams) into his mega-FA deal with Detroit.

Milwaukee (7 seasons) OPS+ = 143; Detroit (2) = 136; Texas (3) = 102. The structural issues with his neck that eventually ended his career certainly could have been a factor in his seasons with the Rangers as in only one of those three seasons did he play a full schedule, so maybe not strictly an age related decline. There were three seasons remaining on his deal when he was released from the team.

But, in general, yeah, you don't need to go chasing each of the last contracts even if they start out OK.

The Boras method has long been to argue that because Team X gave Player Y 'THIS' deal then the one your team offers to (somewhat similar) player Z needs to be the same.

And who can forget his straight-faced Ollie Perez/Sandy Koufax comparisons? But just as writers liked to argue about deals the turned out poorly for the team, 'Hey, nobody held a gun to the owners head and made him offer that', the teams aren't required to repeat their own or someone else's past mistakes unless Boras suddenly starts bringing firearms into the meetings.

[Centerfield]

I would argue (and I think Stearns would agree) that deals given to other players in the past have nothing to do with the type of deal Alonso should get. No matter what Boras may say.

The only thing dictating Alonso’s deal is his market. And specifically, what any other team is willing to give him.

And that’s why Stearns won’t budge unless another suitor comes along.