Reintroducing the NHOP!

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: After tonight's game, the NHOP number will start to make more sense again.

Sure. But the less games remain in the season, the more needlessly elaborate the NHOP is. Might as well just go with the Magic Number from here on out if you know that including today, the Braves and Mets each have only four games left to play.

[Willets Point]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: And I suspect that that's probably the most likely outcome. (Mets winning one of three.)

Apparently Grimm was being wildly optimistic when we all thought he was being unnecessarily negative.

[nymr83]

At this point, the Mets may as well ignore the last 3 games and lock up deGrom-Scherzer-Bassit for the wild card with Diaz banned from pitching again and any reliever on the postseason roster banned from the last 2 games

[Frayed Knot]

A calculation where you give both the Mets and Braves a 60% chance at winning each of their games in the final series figures to give the Mets about a 1.4% shot at pulling out the division.



A calculation based on watching this team over the last couple games gives them about a 1.4% chance of scoring more than 5 runs combined in the upcoming series.

[metsmarathon]

Fucking lying ass simulations

[TransMonk]

=nymr83 post_id=109720 time=1664764495 user_id=54]
At this point, the Mets may as well ignore the last 3 games and lock up deGrom-Scherzer-Bassit for the wild card with Diaz banned from pitching again and any reliever on the postseason roster banned from the last 2 games

[Benjamin Grimm]

As we all well know, the Mets have only the faintest of hopes of winning the division title this year. We need happy outcomes in all six remaining games.



Changes in the second chart are that the Brewers can no longer be the Second Wild Card, the slot that is now the all-but-certain Mets first-round opponent. It will be either the Padres or the Phillies. And in the American League, the Rays are out of the running for the First Wild Card, and the Blue Jays are now guaranteed to at least have the Second Wild Card.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[Frayed Knot]

Are we SURE that there's no chance of them missing the post-season entirely, or are we just assuming that because we sense an easy schedule ahead?

[Gwreck]

I realize the attempt at humor but this is as good a time as any to point out the team has won 98 games and is quite good, no matter the results this weekend.

[DocTee]

"the team has won 98 games and is quite good, no matter the results this weekend."



Agreed. I think I heard last night that sine June 1 the Braves have been playing at a record clip-- like 114 wins in a full season? There's no shame in coming behind those guys, even if there is disappointment.

[MFS62]

I think I prefer Denny's instead of NHOP for the kinds of pancakes we got.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

=Gwreck post_id=109752 time=1664805679 user_id=56]
I realize the attempt at humor but this is as good a time as any to point out the team has won 98 games and is quite good, no matter the results this weekend.

[ashie62]

If the Mets sweep and Atlanta gets swept the Mets win the division



Right?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes. We need six Happy Outcomes in six games.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Now we need five out of five.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Five out of five is a little less daunting than six out of six. Five games remaining: Three for the Mets, two for the Braves. If they all go the right way, we get to skip the Wild Card round.



Three games scheduled for Tuesday. If we get three Happy Outcomes, Wednesday will suddenly be interesting.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Team[/th]	[TH]Goal[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games[/th]	[TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th]	[TH]Mets Magic Number[/th]	[TH]NHOP[/th]

[nymr83]

Mets play a doubleheader at 4 tomorrow. the Braves complicate things with a 6:40 start - the starter for game 2, whoever that might be, is likely going to be deep into his outing before we learn the outcome of the Braves game.

[Gwreck]

Phillies clinched a wild card. If San Diego loses tonight (no score yet vs Giants), they're tied, but Philly has the tiebreaker.



Both teams are now incentivized to lose their remaining games in order to secure a matchup against the Cardinals instead of the Mets.

[Benjamin Grimm]

As noted above, the Phillies have clinched a Wild Card, which means the Brewers are eliminated from the postseason. The Blue Jays have clinched the top Wild Card.



All that remains to be determined is whether the Phillies will take the second Wild Card from the Padres, and whether the Rays will do the same from the Mariners. And, of course, whether the Braves will be able to close out the N.L. East.



The Padres' Magic Number over the Phillies, for the right to face the Mets, is 2, and each team has two games remaining. In the four combined games, the Padres need two Happy Outcomes and the Phillies need three. (The Phillies hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Padres.)

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]

[Gwreck]

Mariners and Rays now locked in as 5 and 6 seeds, respectively.



Mets clinch World Series home field advantage over any AL team other than Houston.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The postseason bracket is now settled. The Mets will play the Padres with the winner facing the Dodgers. Blue Jays will play the Mariners, winner faces the Astros. Cardinals will play the Phillies, winner faces the Braves. Guardians will play the Rays, winner faces the Astros.

[TABLE]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]

[Centerfield]

We're going to end up with 5 out of 6 NHO for these last 3 games.



Infuriating.

[Gwreck]

The new NHOP is now .667.

[Gwreck]

=Centerfield post_id=110116 time=1665010341 user_id=65]
We're going to end up with 5 out of 6 NHO for these last 3 games.



Infuriating.