Dark Horse Met 2019

[Centerfield]

Hey, did you predict great things for Jacob deGrom in February of 2014? Did you buy stock in Lugo and Gsellman prior to the 2016 season? Then this is the thread for you!



Take me for instance. I predicted prior to Spring Training 2018 that a forgotten second-base prospect would kill it in 2018 and eventually take over for Cabrera mid-season. Sure, I thought it would be Gavin Cecchini instead of Jeff McNeil, but since I got the position right, I think I should get partial credit.



Here are the rules.



1. It must be someone who is not on anyone's reasonable radar for this year. So "I think this is the year Michael Conforto puts it all together" is not an acceptable answer. Neither are top prospects on the doorstep that we expect/hope will contribute. So Peter Alonso, get the fuck outta here. The more obscure the better.



2. Contributions must be made at the Major League level. It's fine if you think Simeon Woods-Richardson will catapult to the top of Keith Law's list, but unless he makes contributions in 2019 as a Met, it doesn't count. Feel free to start your own "Dark Horse Prospect" thread.



3. I'm ok with former top prospects who have fallen from grace. So, if a few years ago, you said Dominic Smith, you would have been disqualified. But with all the 1B options now, and Dom basically an afterthought, he's an ok pick. So is former to prospect Bill Pulsipher, if you're inclined to go that route.



So what say you CPF? Who is our Dark Horse Met? Does Ryder Ryan save the day? Is this the breakout year for Dilson Herrera? Are we sipping champagne in October toasting Gregor Blanco? Give me your predictions NOW!!!!

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'll say JD Davis.

[Edgy MD]

Living right on the edge of the expecteds and the dark horses, infield and outfield (and pitcher), J.D. Davis is the perfect choice here, but I want my own pony so I'll look elsewhere. Are Broxton and Lagares eligible?



What the hey? I'll take P.J. Conlon.

[smg58]

Corey Oswalt. The Mets are one injury (or Jason Vargas 2019 pitching like Jason Vargas 2018) away from opening an enormous window of opportunity.

[Centerfield]

Edgy MD wrote: Living right on the edge of the expecteds and the dark horses, infield and outfield (and pitcher), J.D. Davis is the perfect choice here, but I want my own pony so I'll look elsewhere. Are Broxton and Lagares eligible? What the hey? I'll take P.J. Conlon.

The JD Davis thread prompted this one.



I'm not sure on Broxton and Lagares. As of now, one of them is slated to be the starter, so it's hard to call either of them a Dark Horse. I'd lean towards excluding them. Particularly Lagares. Dark Horses usually don't pull down $9 million.

[Guest 41Forever]

=smg58 post_id=3500 time=1551289923 user_id=62]
Corey Oswalt. The Mets are one injury (or Jason Vargas 2019 pitching like Jason Vargas 2018) away from opening an enormous window of opportunity.

[seawolf17]

I'm going to go way the hell out on a limb and pick Dario Pizzano. Who the hell is Dario Pizzano, you ask? I had no idea either until I looked at our https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2019.shtmlspring training stats and thought "who the hell is Dario Pizzano?"



Dude went .272/.348/.425 across two levels in 2017, and .285/.361/.433 in AA in 2018. Doesn't seem to do anything exceptionally well (averages <10 HR a season, doesn't steal bases), but he makes good contact (average K and BB numbers). Played college ball at Columbia, so he's not afraid of NYC. 28 years old in April, so it's time to take the next step. Rise to the occasion, Dario!

[kcmets]

I guess since I heynineteen'd a high outcome for the-player-formerly-

known-as Peter I should chime in that he's my 2019 dark horse?

[seawolf17]

=kcmets post_id=3509 time=1551297106 user_id=53]
I guess since I heynineteen'd a high outcome for the-player-formerly-

known-as Peter I should chime in that he's my 2019 dark horse?

[kcmets]

I know, but my more games than anyone at first and ROY candidate kinda

trumps his gtfo-here?

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Walter Lockett changes his name to Rocket Launcher and wins like, 17 games. WRITE IT DOWN

[Edgy MD]

It's "Walker Lockett, man. As in "Walker, Texas Ranger." As in "Put your hand into my pocket. / Grab my Walker Lockett."

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

In that case he only wins 16 games

[dgwphotography]

=41Forever post_id=3505 time=1551295752 user_id=69]
=smg58 post_id=3500 time=1551289923 user_id=62]
Corey Oswalt. The Mets are one injury (or Jason Vargas 2019 pitching like Jason Vargas 2018) away from opening an enormous window of opportunity.

[whippoorwill]

I like that you used "Dark Horse" close to George Harrison's birthday

[Lefty Specialist]

The way third basemen are dropping like flies, JD Davis may be starting at the position Opening Day. Qualifies him as an equine oscuro.

[MFS62]

TJ Rivera will be brought up in September to replace the still, yet, and forever ailing Todd Frazier and he will Hurricane Hazel it to the tune of .410 - 7 - 28 and help the team clinch the pennant, playoffs and World Series.

I case you've forgotten, my Bronx homie can stroke.



Later

Edited February 27, 2019 by Guest

[Fman99]

I actually do like your example case Dom Smith as the classic post hype sleeper. These spring injuries are going to be the window he needs to show his mettle. You watch.

[Lefty Specialist]

=MFS62 post_id=3530 time=1551318928 user_id=60]
TJ Rivera will be brought up in September to replace the still, yet, and forever ailing Todd Frazier and he will Hurricane Hazel it to the tune of .410 - 7 - 28 and help the team clinch the pennant, playoffs and World Series.

I case you've forgotten, my Bronx homie can stroke.



Later

[smg58]

TJ can't seem to buy a break, although it's entirely possible he started his rehab assignment too early last summer.

[bmfc1]

After seeing him the last three days, I'll go with Rajai Davis. Nice glove, decent bat, great speed. I'm not sure how he fits into the roster but I can see him sticking around and contributing in various ways.

[Centerfield]

A few nuggets of information for those still mulling candidates.



It's tempting to pick new additions since we haven't seen them suck, and we are always hopeful for them. But chances are that the DHM is already in the organization. And chances are he's a pitcher. And probably white.



Prior DHM's off the top of my head.



2011: RA Dickey. 11-9. 2.84 ERA



2012: Scott Hairston. 20 HRs. .803 OPS.



2013: Marlon Byrd. 848 OPS.



2014: Jacob deGrom



2016: Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo (co-DHMs)



2018: Jeff McNeil



And of course, the first one I remember, 1987 Terry Leach.

[Benjamin Grimm]

1977 Lenny Randle!

[Chad ochoseis]

José "Porn Stache" Valentin, 2006

[Chad ochoseis]

And, this year, Vargas. He showed flickers of "not as done as you think" last year. This year, he puts in the solid back-of-the-rotation year that we wanted out of him in 2018.

[Chad ochoseis]

Also, George Stone in 1973. And Pat Mahomes that season that Pat Mahomes was good.

[Centerfield]

The list so far:



1973: George Stone. 12-3. 2.80 ERA



1977: Lenny Randle. .787 OPS. 33 SB. 4.2 WAR!!!



1987: Terry Leach. 11-1. 3.22 ERA.



1999: Pat Mahomes. 8-0. 3.68 ERA.



2006: Jose Valentin. 18 HRs, .820 OPS.



2011: RA Dickey. 11-9. 2.84 ERA



2012: Scott Hairston. 20 HRs. .803 OPS.



2013: Marlon Byrd. 848 OPS.



2014: Jacob deGrom. Rookie of the F'n Year.



2016: Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo (co-DHMs)



2018: Jeff McNeil



This is a fun list. Obviously not every year will have a DHM, but it's great to see how many we've had. I think it's one of the great things about baseball is that you have guys come out of nowhere.



That being said, it's also a little disappointing how many of these are one-year wonders. DeGrom and Lugo are bucking the trend. Hopefully McNeil can too.

[G-Fafif]

Adeiny we didn't see coming, yet here he is.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Guy is doing it all.

[Edgy MD]

With respect to Bob Ojeda, Dark Horse 1986 has to be Ray Knight. He was a complete load in 1985, and in 1986, he was earning MVP votes.



1988 is David Cone coming and going. Who the hell was this guy?



1990? Um, Wally Whitehurst did pretty good.