Seems like Mex17 really wants to talk Realmuto

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

I would like to have Realmuto behind the plate for the Mets. However, if the Mets trade Conforto, Rosario, or Nimmo in order to get him, then I will be seriously upset. If they trade any 2 (or more) of the three in order to acquire Realmuto, I will lose interest in the team next season.

Aside from watching DeGrom or Syndergaard pitch, I would see little reason to spend my time and energy following the team. Life is too short and I don't need the aggravation. I can support a losing team (duh, I'm a Mets fan), but I will not support a stupid regime that seems to have little regard for and seems to take for granted their fans.

[Guest 41Forever]

Listening to the Shea Anything podcast last night, Martino was saying Realmuto is the best catcher in baseball right now. Is that really the consensus?

[Edgy MD]

If, by "best catcher," we mean to measure him by his defensive contributions, I'd certainly put Wilson Contreras and Salvador Perez ahead of him, at least.

Maybe he's got an argument for "best non-Venezuelan catcher."

[Benjamin Grimm]

I imagine he means best overall player who's a catcher.

[metsmarathon]

i guess the real question from a valuation standpoint is, is there that much more that realmuto brings to the catching game that the metrics aren't even close to adequately capturing, that would outweigh the fact that nimmo and conforto are superior offensive players, and rosario's defense would be difficult to replace.

because that's the only avenue whereby trading nimmo, conforto, or rosario for realmuto makes sense.

[Lefty Specialist]

Realmuto isn't enough of a game-changer to warrant losing Conforto or Nimmo/Rosario.

It's not like he's Wayfair free shipping or anything.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Lefty Specialist wrote: Realmuto isn't enough of a game-changer to warrant losing Conforto or Nimmo/Rosario. It's not like he's Wayfair free shipping or anything.

lololol

[batmagadanleadoff]

The argument for Realuto, if you buy it, is that catcher value is scarce, and that it would be easier to replace Nimmo or Conforto's value at corner outfield than it would be to find a catcher as good as Realmuto. It's not necessarily about whether Realmuto is better than Nimmo or Conforto straight up. The theory is sound. You just have to figure for yourselves whether this trade will work.

Btw, the Mets catcher production last year was abysmal. So the position is ripe for improvement.
improvement.

[Benjamin Grimm]

The reports we've been getting seem to indicate that the Mets have balked at including Conforto. And some reports have also said that they won't include Rosario.

So it seems like it's Nimmo who would be the guy if a deal is to be made.

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: The argument for Realuto, if you buy it, is that catcher value is scarce, and that it would be easier to replace Nimmo or Conforto's value at corner outfield than it would be to find a catcher as good as Realmuto. It's not necessarily about whether Realmuto is better than Nimmo or Conforto straight up. The theory is sound. You just have to figure for yourselves whether this trade will work. Btw, the Mets catcher production last year was abysmal. So the position is ripe for improvement. improvement.

Just to illustrate, Realmuto's WAR last year was 4.9. That's all star, borderline MVP level production. How many other catchers WARred at 4.9? How many corner outfielders?

[Edgy MD]

Well, that's fair in that he's probably coming off the best season, but a year ago, Gary Sanchez was the man, and now he can't get arrested. I think he needs more of a track record to claim consensus supremacy.

[Centerfield]

It's so frustrating. We're talking about the Realmuto trade because we're fucking broke and can't afford Grandal or Ramos. I don't think anyone realistically believes that Realmuto is worth giving up the names mentioned, but it looks like that's what we're going to end up doing.

Brodie may have no money to spend, but he's showing he has no issues burning through Alderson's young core of talented players. To hell with the future.

This is what we get for hiring an agent. All dazzle, no substance.

[batmagadanleadoff]

You could say the same thing about Edwin Diaz. The FA market is loaded with quality relievers. You dont have to give up Kellenic and Dunn for a good reliever. And the idea that you blocked the Phillies is just as dumb because they can go out and buy Miller or Familia or any of the others.

[Centerfield]

Yeah. That was my big criticism over the Diaz pursuit.

Sign a free agent closer. Sign a free agent catcher. Sign a free agent left-handed reliever.

If you want to trade prospects, trade Kelenic and Dunn for Nolan Arenado. Then sign him to an extension.

You don't need to be creative. You just need to act like a big market team.

[HahnSolo]

And they already have a solid core of still-controllable players (the four starters; plus Gselly and Lugo; plus Diaz; Conforto, Nimmo, McNeil, Rosario; with Alonso coming). That's 11-12 pieces that aren't costing you much. That's good! The Mets should be building on that, not trading them away.

Let's go to battle with those 11-12 in place, then they don't even have to break the bank on a Harper or a Machado. If the payroll is not going to be in the same neighborhood as the MFYs/Sox/Dodgers/Cubs, how about signing one (or two) of Miller/Familia/Robertson/Ottavino; one of Grandal/Ramos; one vet 1B to keep Alonso's seat warm (a Reynolds/Adams/Bour type); one vet CF guy as a Cespedes placeholder (Adam Jones on a short deal? John Jay?).

Yea, it's not opening up the checkbook like we'd like, but that would fill four spots of need (of varying degrees) by spending a bit. And maybe they show us they're willing to spend at least a little.

[seawolf17]

Grandal costs a draft pick, doesn't he? There's no way the Mets sign him.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I hope they don't get hung up on the draft pick. It's a second-rounder that they'd lose (or something like that; I forget the details). It shouldn't be a disincentive. Grandal is the guy I'm hoping is the 2019 Mets catcher.

[Mex17]

Enough guessing, let's crunch the numbers.

This is where things stand as of this moment (not counting Wright). . .

Cespedes - $29 million
Cano - $24 million
deGrom - $12.9 million (arbitration estimate)
Frazier - $9 million
Lagares - $9 million
Vargas - $8 million
Syndergaard - $5.9 million (arbitration estimate)
Wheeler - $5.3 million (arbitration estimate)
Conforto - $4.4 million (arbitration estimate)
d'Arnaud - $3.7 million (arbitration estimate)
Matz - $3 million (arbitration estimate)
Plawecki - $1.3 million (arbitration estimate)
Alonso - $600,000
Diaz - $600,000
Gsellman - $600,000
Lugo - $600,000
McNeil - $600,000
Nimmo - $600,000
Rivera - $600,000
Rosario - $600,000
remaining 5 spots on the 25 man roster x $600,000 = $3 million


That's $123.3 million in committed payroll right now. Subtract the $20 million coming from Seattle and that is $103.3 million.

Now let's assume Pollock at $16 million AAV (x 4 years), Grandal at $15 million AAV (x 3 years), and Miller at $11 AAV (x 2 years). That's brings the 2019 payroll to $145.3 million. Subtract the three $600,000 roster spots ($1.8 million) that these three players would occupy and now we are down to $143.5 million.

Now let's factor in, in theory, a five year, $130 million extension for deGrom ($26 million AAV. . .$13.1 million more than his 2019 arbitration estimate), and a three year, $30 million extention for Wheeler ($8 million in 2019, $10 million in 2020, $12 million in 2021. . .the $8 million being $2.7 million greater than his 2019 arbitration estimate).

That brings us to $159.3 million. That's well within Wilpon range (whether or not we agree with what "Wilpon range" ought to be). There may even be a little more to bring in an Adam Warren type for the bullpen to go along with Diaz and Miller and keep things in the $165 million range. I have confidence that BVW can convince the Wilpons to fork over $165 million.

We can afford Grandal and Pollock at the same time. We do not have to pay Jeter's ransom for Realmuto if BVW chooses not to (even though I did want Realmuto at the onset of the offseason).

In 2020, we get Frazier, Lagares, and (possibly) Vargas off the books. But we also lose the $20 million Seattle credit, and we will have as of yet undetermined arbitration raises to key players and possibly a deGrom-esque Syndergaard extension to consider. But, if the season is successful on the field (and one more year removed from Madoff), who know what the Wilpons will approve under those circumstances?

That is my optimistic take tonight. Who knows what tommorrow will bring?

[Centerfield]

I think I read that the $20 million from Seattle will be broken out over time.

[Mex17]

Centerfield wrote: I think I read that the $20 million from Seattle will be broken out over time.

Source?

[A Boy Named Seo]

Yah, it's $5M this year and $3.75M each of the next 4 years. it's buried somewhere in CPF land.

[Mex17]

A Boy Named Seo wrote: Yah, it's $5M this year and $3.75M each of the next 4 years. it's buried somewhere in CPF land.

Then my scenario would then be a $180 million 2019 payroll.

It's well under the luxury tax threshold, I can factually state that. The question is if BVW can convince the Wilpons to go there.

If he cannot, then maybe they do have to do the Realmuto trade. I don't know.

But if I were BVW, I wound insist that Jeter takes d'Arnaud back to even out the money a little.

FWIW, the two Realmuto packages that I would consider are as follows. . .

-Option A
Nimmo, one out of David Peterson/Anthony Kay/Thomas Szapucki, and d'Arnaud for Realmuto and a B/C level prospect.

In this scenario, McNeil plays LF, Conforto, shifts over to RF, (Pollock in center) and you sign Granderson back as insurance.

-Option B
Lugo, Gimenez, and d'Arnaud for the same package back from Miami

Here, you keep Nimmo and Conforto right where they are flanking Pollock, and you get Adam Warren to replace Lugo.

If Jeter insists upon Nimmo and Gimenez in the same deal I hang up the phone.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Jon Heyman wrote: Not sure what the Marlins precise trade request is from Mets for Realmuto. But heard Mets do not want to do Conforto-Nimmo combo, and they don’t want to trade Rosario at all.

[Mex17]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Jon Heyman wrote: Not sure what the Marlins precise trade request is from Mets for Realmuto. But heard Mets do not want to do Conforto-Nimmo combo, and they don’t want to trade Rosario at all.

Jeter is totally overvaluing Realmuto I think. Conforto and Nimmo?

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Mex17 wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: Jon Heyman wrote: Not sure what the Marlins precise trade request is from Mets for Realmuto. But heard Mets do not want to do Conforto-Nimmo combo, and they don’t want to trade Rosario at all. Jeter is totally overvaluing Realmuto I think. Conforto and Nimmo?

I mean, that's negotiation, right?

[smg58]

The Marlins are hoping that at least one of the fourteen rumored suitors is totally overvaluing Realmuto, which may turn out to be a reasonable gamble. But I wouldn't trade either outfielder straight up; they both have comparable value for more years under cheap control.

[Centerfield]

My first impression of the Van Wagenen Era: checking my phone and hoping that Brodie hasn’t made a really stupid trade. Sometimes being disappointed.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ken Rosenthal wrote: #Mets discussing multiple two- and three-team scenarios involving Realmuto and others, sources say. Team continues to place premium on their SP; would move Syndergaard only for big return. Tyson Ross signed today for $5.75M. Syndergaard will not cost much more in 2019.

[Centerfield]

So I get it. Van Wagenen is a salesman.

He'll dangle Syndergaard for Realmuto, and everyone will freak the fuck out, and when he signs Martin Maldonado everyone will breathe a sigh of relief.

[Mex17]

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/the-latest-on-mets-trade-talks-for-jt-realmuto-is-a-deal-to-mets-just-a-matter-of-time/301719100

Stay tuned. This could go down tonight.

Should I go into hiding if this happens? I liked him, but not at the price of Syndergaard straight up.

I always viewed Realmuto as a complimentary player, not a franchise player.