The rotation competition.

[Mex17]

Let's assume deGrom/Syndergaard/Vargas/Harvey as locks. That leaves Wheeler/Matz/Lugo/Gsellman/Montero competing for the fifth spot.

My early predictions?

-Wheeler takes it.
-Matz becomes the second lefty out of the bullpen and the first call in many cases once it's determined that the starter will falter once the third time around the order comes around.
-Lugo also goes to the major league bullpen and fills a similar role as Matz as a righthander.
-Gsellman is the one who goes to Vegas and stays stretched out as a starter kept in reserve.
-Montero, as far as I know, is the only one out of this group to be out of minor league options. It would take a lot of failure from the other four for him to crack the rotation, but it is possible. If he pitches well, he will make the bullpen. If not, they can DFA him and maybe he clears waivers and goes back to Vegas.

[smg58]

My money is on Matz beating out Wheeler, but if we have more than five of these guys pitching well at the same time I won't complain. I think you're right about Gsellman and Lugo. Montero won't survive waivers if he's pitching adequately, but he might not be good enough to come north either.

[Edgy MD]

The only thing about Harvey that's a lock is that he will sweat and stammer incoherently while explaining his BBF shark hunt with the first son.

[Mex17]

I think that the Matz/Wheeler question will come down to which one is more likely to provide a different "look" out of the bullpen as opposed to that day's starter. My guess is that Matz will answer that question better than Wheeler, which in my mind means Matz goes to the pen.

[seawolf17]

There's no way Montero gets through waivers. Someone will take a flier on him. I'm not saying that necessarily matters, but it's a factor.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't see Harvey or Vargas as "locks" at all. I think the rotation will be Syndergaard and deGrom and three other guys to be determined.

[Edgy MD]

Maybe it's a good time for that "everybody will feel loved" regime to kick in, because Zack Wheeler looks like he's staring into a very dark place.

[tweet:265rbql1]

[/tweet:265rbql1]

[Lefty Specialist]

I have to believe Wheeler's the odd man out (barring injuries). He hasn't been fully healthy since 2014 so I expect very little of him. And he'll probably get a chance to start anyway, knowing this staff's record for DL appearances.

[RealityChuck]

I'd put Matz before Harvey. At this point, he's a better pitcher and he has more upside. Harvey, at best, can be expected to be middle rung. He should beat out Wheller.

Gsellman and Lugo to the bullpen or Las Vegas. Montero to the bullpen unless they can unload him on someone else.

[bmfc1]

Imagine if the Mets spent real money and signed Arrieta instead of Vargas. Vargas is OK but Arrieta could have made things interesting with WSH.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

The percentage of innings going to starters leaguewide is somewhere around 65% today. One thing you could deduce from Callaway's comments, the OPS against figures increasing as times-faced also increase, and the way the club is assembled today is that the Mets are positioning themselves to be able to push that still further this year so let's assume that starters will only eat 55% of all innings thrown in 2018.

162 starts, 9 innings, ~1450 innings a year.

DeGrom and Syndergaard are good enough to break the rules so let's assume they get 30 starts and 200 innings apeice.

That leaves 102 starts and 1,050 innings divided by whomever of the 10 to 12 other guys on the staff are at the moment.

Let's assume the plan to limit batter-times-faced shaves the average starting appearance to 5 2/3 IP among the following guys:

Vargas 25 starts 142 innings
Harvey 22 starts 125 innings
Wheeler 20 starts 113 innings
Matz 17 starts 96 innings

These fellas only get 5 IP/start:

Gsellman 4 starts 20 innings
Lugo 4 starts 20 innings
Montero 4 starts 20 innings
Flexen 2 starts 10 innings

There's 162 starts and 766 innings, or about 53% of your innings.

Lets back out the "pure" relievers: Familia, Ramos, Blevins, Swarzak. I'm giving those guys 50 innings each, or another 200 IP (it'll likely be more)

Now we're at 966 innings and need another 484.

Swingmen
Vargas 23 RIP - 175 total
Harvey 25 RIP - 150
Wheeler 37 RIP - 150
Matz 40 RIP - 136
Gsellman 40 RIP - 60
Lugo 40 RIP - 60
Montero 40 RIP - 70
Flexen 40 RIP

That's another 245 innings, and so we need another 239 between
Callahan
Rhame
Robles
Sewald
Molina
Oswalt
Bashlor

who average 34 innings each. Bam. You've done and all it took was 21 pitchers (2 pure starters, 8 swingmen, 11 pure relievers) and about 50 roster moves

[Mex17]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: DeGrom and Syndergaard. . . let's assume they get 30 starts Vargas 25 starts Harvey 22 starts Wheeler 20 starts Matz 17 starts Gsellman 4 starts Lugo 4 starts Montero 4 starts Flexen 2 starts There's 162 starts

Your arithmetic is off. 60 + 25 + 22 + 20 + 17 + 12 + 2 = 158. Also, Alderson stated yesterday that he wants to keep the total amount of starters used this year to 7 or 8 guys. You have 10.

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Swingmen Vargas 23 RIP Harvey 25 RIP

No way that this happens.

[Mex17]

How about this?

deGrom - 30 starts
Syndergaard - 30
Vargas - 30
Harvey - 25
Wheeler - 20
Matz - 20
Lugo - 4
Gsellman - 3

I'll let you rework the innings.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, they got six guys primed to grab five spots, but there's only a 26.2144% chance that they all make it to opening day healthy anyhow. Mother Nature is quick to take back what's hers.

Maybe it seems to throw a wrench into the expectations of Harvey, Matz, and especially Wheeler, but if they perform, they're fine. There's a job for them. The ones who really take the kick are Gsellman, Lugo, Montero, and Molina.

Mickey Jannis is dying on the inside right now. Dying!

[batmagadanleadoff]

Mex17 wrote: How about this.... Harvey - 25 [starts]

Twenty five starts for Harvey? That's pretty optimistic. Harvey's a thoracic arm syndrome survivor, as you know. Hardly anyone ever recovers from that injury. It's a career killer. And last year, Harvey's pitching was in line with someone typically coming back from TAS -- that is, Harvey was dreadful, the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. On top of that, he's also a Tommy John surgery survivor, and though his 2015 comeback from TJ surgery was admirable, Harvey was clearly a diminished pitcher even then. The former superstar who could once nick the edge of a dime with 100+ MPH heat is lucky to hit 93 on the radar these days, and even still, god knows where that 93 MPH slow fastball is going to end up because Harvey has no control any more. Count me skeptical.

If someone's gonna give Harvey 25 starts, I hope it's the Nats.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah, I'm thinking more like 15 for Harvey. Of course, this kind of stuff is impossible to predict with any real hope of accuracy.

Just for laughs, I pulled the distribution of starts over the course of the 2017 season, which went very poorly, and 2016 and 2015, which went much better, and 1986 and 1969, which went really well.

In 2017, the five leaders in starts started 66 per cent of regular season games. In 2016 it was 77.8 per cent; 2015: 88.3 per cent; 1986: 91.4 per cent; 1969: 88.9 per cent.

Here are the numbers:

2017
Jacob deGrom 31
Robert Gsellman 22
Seth Lugo 18
Rafael Montero 18
Matt Harvey 18
Zack Wheeler 17
Steven Matz 13
Chris Flexen 9
Noah Syndergaard 7
Tommy Milone 5
Tyler Pill 3
Adam Wilk 1

2016
Bartolo Colon 33
Noah Syndergaard 30
Jacob deGrom 24
Steven Matz 22
Matt Harvey 17
Logan Verrett 12
Seth Lugo 8
Robert Gsellman 7
Gabriel Ynoa 3
Rafael Montero 3
Jon Niese 2
Sean Gilmartin 1

2015
Bartolo Colon 31
Jacob deGrom 30
Jon Niese 29
Matt Harvey 29
Noah Syndergaard 24
Dillon Gee 7
Steven Matz 6
Logan Verrett 4
Sean Gilmartin 1
Rafael Montero 1

1986
Ron Darling 34
Dwight Gooden 33
Sid Fernandez 31
Bob Ojeda 30
Rick Aguilera 20
Bruce Berenyi 7
Rick Anderson 5
Randy Niemann 1
John Mitchell 1

1969
Gary Gentry 35
Tom Seaver 35
Jerry Koosman 32
Don Cardwell 21
Jim McAndrew 21
Nolan Ryan 10
Jack DiLauro 4
Tug McGraw 4

[nymr83]

the broken chain seems too liberal in declaraing that a guy "missed starts"- degrom 2015 looks like the all start game broke it up, no?

[Benjamin Grimm]

The broken chain occurs if a pitcher goes seven or more days and seven or more games without starting.

In 2015, deGrom started Game 86 on July 8, and then Game 94 on July 21.

[nymr83]

right, but my point is that the all-star game re-ordered the rotation - he didn't miss a start. only 4 other guys (Harvey, Syndergaard, Niese, Colon) made starts between the 8th and the 21st

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think the fact that he went 13 days without starting, even with a four-day break in the middle, indicates that he missed a start. Or at least, that there was a longer-than-usual gap between his starts, which is really what the graphic is looking to indicate.

[Frayed Knot]

In 2017, the five leaders in starts started 66 per cent of regular season games. Here are the numbers: 2017 Jacob deGrom 31 Robert Gsellman 22 Seth Lugo 18 Rafael Montero 18 Matt Harvey 18 Zack Wheeler 17 Steven Matz 13 Chris Flexen 9 Noah Syndergaard 7 Tommy Milone 5 Tyler Pill 3 Adam Wilk 1

And the real killer last season was that the 2nd place guy and two of the three T-3rds in that start-chart weren't supposed to be regular starters at all; they could probably be tabbed as the 6th, 7th,
and 8th guys as per the pre-season plan. The 'Big Five' that they were planning on wound up finishing the year 1st, T-3, 6th, 7th, and 9th in starts made (and 3 of Thor's 7 starts were essentially 1-inning outings).

[Mex17]

Wheeler looked sharp today. Compared to Matz's performances so far, I am getting more confident in my initial prediction that Wheeler is going to beat Matz out for that fifth spot.

[ashie62]

Syndergaard
deGrom
Harvey
Vargas
Wheeler

[Edgy MD]

While Mickey Callaway praised most of the pitchers vying for a spot, he also noted that Rafael Montero was the exception. The right-hander, who is out of options and had been having a decent spring, gave up five runs in a third of an inning. — Puma

[MFS62]

Edgy MD wrote: While Mickey Callaway praised most of the pitchers vying for a spot, he also noted that Rafael Montero was the exception. The right-hander, who is out of options and had been having a decent spring, gave up five runs in a third of an inning. — Puma

My kid has been a real disappointment.

Later

[Centerfield]

Montero sucks. Matz sucks. Harvey will never be an ace again.

Go get Jake Arrieta.

[nymr83]

Centerfield wrote: Montero sucks. Matz sucks. Harvey will never be an ace again. Go get Jake Arrieta.

I agree and like this plan.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: Montero sucks. Matz sucks. Harvey will never be an ace again. Go get Jake Arrieta.

There's a non-zero chance that one of Matz, Harvey or Wheeler will be better than Arrieta. In fact, if I had to wager on whether Arrieta or one of those three would have a better 2018 I'd probably take those three.

I mean, I favored Darvish. The Cubs did too.

[nymr83]

3 against one is hardly fair. I could take any random group of 3 pitchers with past success and say the same - but you arwnt going to find out WHICH of the 3 is going to be better until long after you have made roster decisions. Arrieta is individually better than any of them. I would sign him tomorrow and send down Matz if he has options. Cut Harvey if Matz is out of options.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Matz does have one remaining option.