fangraphs projects the mets to have either a 62.7% chance to win the division based on their own preseason fangraphs player projections, a 51.5% chance based on season to date stats, and a 58.5% chance based on "coin flip" The met's having the current edge in tie-breaker scenarios is where most of the difference lies. per fangraphs projections, the mets and braves finish with 101.2 and 101.0 wins apiece. per season-to-date, they project to 101.0 and 101.4 wins apiece (edge to braves, but for the tiebreakers), and exactly 100.5 wins apiece on coin-flips. again, tie breakers favor the mets. so... our team's destiny is in their own hands here. let's hope they don't luis castillo it.