metsmarathon

oh no, a professional sports player didn't personally and immediately apologize to me for accepting many more buckets of money than my team was willing to pay him, and than i may have thought prudent, and may even not have actually enjoyed being a part of the team as much as i imagine myself to surely have were i given the opportunity. what a terrible person he must be. i resent him for ever letting me root for him. he can now go straight to hell. or texas. same difference.

damnit, i was really proud of my correa point...

i'm absolutely giddy about this move, but also worried more than i little that it looks a tad too much sterinbrennerish. we'll see. it's the first big steve signing that has me real trepidatious about the back end of it. i don't think it's necessarily a bad signing, but yikes. very curious about what the medical issue might be, to be honest. also real curious about what it means for the rest of the infield. bottom line for me though is.... can we please lock up pete long term now? baty/vientos is an interesting conundrum, too. yeah, maybe they get spun into pitching, or maybe they get converted into outfielders to push canha out the door? i guess we'll see.

lol true. i think i kinda figure ruf to be better than he was. the same cannot be said for mccann.

this makes me feel very much better about our overall bullpen situation, which was the one lingering weakness not named james mccann.

welcome back, otto!

well, we had a lot of names come off the board, and not a whole lot of correct guesses. Name Pos Prev Team Actual bucket edgy mfs62 fman shake mm sharpie Aaron Judge RF/CF NYY NYY SFG SFG SFG NYM SFG NYY NYY Jacob deGrom SP NYM TEX NYM NYM ATL NYM NYM NYM NYM Carlos Correa SS MIN SFG TEX MIA LAD NYM LAD SFG LAD Trea Turner SS/2B LAD PHI SFG LAD PHI NYM MIN PHI PHI Brandon Nimmo CF/RF/LF NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM COL COL Carlos Rodón SP SFG NYY NYM WAS NYM NYM LAA NYM TEX Xander Bogaerts SS BOS SDP PHI TEX CHC NYM SDP MIN CHC Justin Verlander SP HOU NYM LAD BOS NYY NYM HOU LAD HOU Dansby Swanson SS ATL CHC ATL BOS ATL NYM ATL SEA BOS Willson Contreras C CHC STL CHW CHW STL NYM CHC MIL CHC Jean Segura 2B PHI MIN COL NYY NYM CIN BOS WAS Andrew Heaney SP LAD TEX NYM SDP TEX NYM SEA NYY NYM Chris Bassitt SP NYM TOR HOU SEA NYM NYM NYM LAD SDP José Abreu 1B CHW HOU SFG NYY BOS NYM MIA SDP NYM Nathan Eovaldi SP BOS NYM STL BOS NYM SFG HOU SF Andrew Benintendi LF/RF NYY CHW MIA ATL PHI NYM NYY TOR NYY Mitch Haniger RF/LF SEA SFG CHC YAK SEA NYM DET NYM ARI Jose Quintana SP STL NYM KCR MIL MIL NYM STL SDP KCR Jameson Taillon SP NYY CHC WAS NYY TOR NYM TOR ATL CHC Sean Manaea SP SDP SFG NYM NYY SDP NYM HOU NYY PIT Josh Bell 1B/DH SDP CLE CIN CLE SEA NYM WAS BOS SDP Justin Turner 3B/DH LAD BOS CIN COL TOR NYM LAD LAA Cody Bellinger CF/RF/1B LAD CHC MIL CHC NYY NYM PIT PHI TOR Brandon Drury 3B/1B/2B/LF SDP BAL CIN CHW NYM ARI SDP MIL Michael Conforto RF/LF NYM NYM SEA NYM NYM WAS CHC SEA Jurickson Profar LF SDP BAL NYY NYY NYM DET NYY MIN [CROSSOUT] Mike Clevinger [CROSSOUT] SP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] CLE [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] PHI [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] HOU [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] NYM [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] Taijuan Walker ] NYM PHI SFG HOU PHI NYM LAA MIN MIN Noah Syndergaard SP PHI LAD NYM CHC SDP NYM PHI BOS DET Trey Mancini 1B/LF/RF/DH HOU CLE BOS MIL NYM BAL BAL BAL Kodai Senga SP NPB NYM NYM NYY NYM NYM NYM NYM LAA degrom years 5 4 4 3 3 3 degrom dollars 37 38 44 41 45 43 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- score 26 4 4 6 4 3 4 2 only a handful of free agents remain, and not a lot of the remaining guesses look all that strong, but it's still anyone's game. can mfs62 hang onto his lead? will fman's strategery pan out? is anyone gonna sign poor michael conforto? tune in and find out!

i gotta say, and maybe i'm somewhat biased here, but with as crazy as the contracts have been this year, i like the deals the mets signed a hell of a lot better than the ones other teams signed.

as much as i'd love to have him back, if he does come back, it's basically a disaster for him. he needs to go somewhere and have a full time job where he can prove that he's healthy and ready to go, playing for a team that can afford to have him out there long enough to try. and he won't and shouldn't get that opportunity here. healthy, and playing well, yeah, sure, he's way, way better than canha, and might be better that marte (too lazy to check stats to confirm). but we don't know that well enough right now to bank on it. so he'd be a 4th outfielder to start the season, and is that what he really needs to get on track, when he needs to prove he's a starter? maybe you bring him on as a fourth, with the goal of pushing out canha, but he's gotta get better offers than that, right?

M.e.t.b.o.t. would tell you that the value of an out or a run or even a base can be situationally valued in terms of the probability of winning the game. The probability of a base turning into a run is derived from the run expectancies. You could argue that run expectancies change given the expected performance of the players in question, sure, but in a macro sense they can be readily determined. I feel like you're both mostly arguing about the same thing here. I would say too that edgy, maybe you could provide some data and formulas that show that the risk of stealing a base against a wicked good closer is somehow greater, when it may be true that that unicorn base runner himself has higher value because of how unlikely he was to get on base in the first place and erasing him in an unsuccessful base steal attempt has a terribly detrimental effect on the outcome of the game.

when you put it in the game situation, you're still ascribing it to "worth X runs which equals Y wins", just with a more narrow focus.

if i'm reading the market right - and my performance in the FA contest is surely an indicator that i'm probably not - i think the twins and cubs are very much capable of landing swanson. i feel like boston should probably be in on him too, but i don't think even they know what the hell they're even doing. maybe atlanta is playing super-coy, but i don't think they're actually in on him, unless he really, really doesn't like getting over-paid.

that's outstanding.

there may be secondary effects of having a base-stealer on first that are harder to measure, and it makes sense that these effects must surely exist - we just cannot measure how much value they have - of skewing the infield defense, or distracting the pitcher's focus, or degrading the catcher's ability to frame pitches, or affecting pitch selection, or being more primed to go first-to-third, or advancing on a bad throw, and so on and so forth - that i think teams and players should keep the SB in their arsenal.... Wouldn't these other effects already be baked into the formula, to a large degree? If these "secondary" effects impact run scoring, they would change the break-even number for base-stealing, which is a function of run scoring. the secondary effects can absolutely be measured, it's just that, to my knowledge, WE don't have ready access to that dataset. they're not currently in the formula, because it looks at the entire population of base/out situations, not the quality of the runner or the expected outcome. you would need to at minimum parse it out to the effect having a likely basestealer on first vs an unlinkely basestealer, and look at the change in the outcomes. there's a lot of small sample size things, and apples & orangutans comparisons that would come out, where with a narrower dataset you're probably going to need to normalize for the quality of hitter - presuming a better hitter could be more likely to follow a good basestealer and a less-good hitter may likely follow a worse basestealer. but given enough data, i'm sure it could be done. give me a well-paying job, and maybe some python lessons, and i'll get right on it LOL. but i do believe the secondary effects would change the break-even number. i don't think it's a wholesale change, but maybe a few percentage points of success rate, and maybe that's enough to encourage the entire volume of basestealing to rise, if the data were to bear it out. also, it may be true that if mlb continues to deaden balls, the cost of an unsuccessful stolen base goes down. i think too that perhaps as k-rates increase, maybe advancing that extra base could become more valuable (?). math must be done! to the calculators, baseball nerds!

...and none points to be awarded for sean manaea going to the giants. but, yay, i'm out of the basement! for now. Name Pos Prev Team Actual bucket edgy mfs62 fman shake mm sharpie Aaron Judge RF/CF NYY NYY SFG SFG SFG NYM SFG NYY NYY Jacob deGrom SP NYM TEX NYM NYM ATL NYM NYM NYM NYM Carlos Correa SS MIN TEX MIA LAD NYM LAD SFG LAD Trea Turner SS/2B LAD PHI SFG LAD PHI NYM MIN PHI PHI Brandon Nimmo CF/RF/LF NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM COL COL Carlos Rodón SP SFG NYM WAS NYM NYM LAA NYM TEX Xander Bogaerts SS BOS SDP PHI TEX CHC NYM SDP MIN CHC Justin Verlander SP HOU NYM LAD BOS NYY NYM HOU LAD HOU Dansby Swanson SS ATL ATL BOS ATL NYM ATL SEA BOS Willson Contreras C CHC STL CHW CHW STL NYM CHC MIL CHC Jean Segura 2B PHI MIN COL NYY NYM CIN BOS WAS Andrew Heaney SP LAD TEX NYM SDP TEX NYM SEA NYY NYM Chris Bassitt SP NYM HOU SEA NYM NYM NYM LAD SDP José Abreu 1B CHW HOU SFG NYY BOS NYM MIA SDP NYM Nathan Eovaldi SP BOS NYM STL BOS NYM SFG HOU SF Andrew Benintendi LF/RF NYY MIA ATL PHI NYM NYY TOR NYY Mitch Haniger RF/LF SEA SFG CHC YAK SEA NYM DET NYM ARI Jose Quintana SP STL NYM KCR MIL MIL NYM STL SDP KCR Jameson Taillon SP NYY CHC WAS NYY TOR NYM TOR ATL CHC Sean Manaea SP SDP SFG NYM NYY SDP NYM HOU NYY PIT Josh Bell 1B/DH SDP CLE CIN CLE SEA NYM WAS BOS SDP Justin Turner 3B/DH LAD CIN COL TOR NYM LAD LAA Cody Bellinger CF/RF/1B LAD CHC MIL CHC NYY NYM PIT PHI TOR Brandon Drury 3B/1B/2B/LF SDP BAL CIN CHW NYM ARI SDP MIL Michael Conforto RF/LF NYM NYM SEA NYM NYM WAS CHC SEA Jurickson Profar LF SDP BAL NYY NYY NYM DET NYY MIN [CROSSOUT] Mike Clevinger [CROSSOUT] SP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] CLE [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] PHI [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] HOU [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] NYM [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] Taijuan Walker ] NYM PHI SFG HOU PHI NYM LAA MIN MIN Noah Syndergaard SP PHI NYM CHC SDP NYM PHI BOS DET Trey Mancini 1B/LF/RF/DH HOU CLE BOS MIL NYM BAL BAL BAL Kodai Senga SP NPB NYM NYM NYY NYM NYM NYM NYM LAA degrom years 5 4 4 3 3 3 degrom dollars 37 38 44 41 45 43 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- score 19 4 4 6 4 3 3 2

per a cursory google search: https://batflipsandnerds.com/2018/11/03/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-stolen-base/https://batflipsandnerds.com/2018/11/03/analytics-and-its-effects-on-the-mlb-the-stolen-base/ just scanned through it a bit; has lots of math, draws some conclusions. seems pretty good. i've been reading this kind of thing for at least the past 10-20 years, so there are plenty of other sources out there.

the game is better and more fun when stolen bases are in play. unfortunately, the math says that unless you're really good at doing it successfully at the major league level, you're team is better off if you just don't. at least, according to the maths that we are currently able to measure. there may be secondary effects of having a base-stealer on first that are harder to measure, and it makes sense that these effects must surely exist - we just cannot measure how much value they have - of skewing the infield defense, or distracting the pitcher's focus, or degrading the catcher's ability to frame pitches, or affecting pitch selection, or being more primed to go first-to-third, or advancing on a bad throw, and so on and so forth - that i think teams and players should keep the SB in their arsenal, even before the upcoming rule changes, but it's probably a hard sell. i dont know how much those knock-on effects truly move the needle, but you're still going to need to be significantly more successful than not for it to be worth it.

Frayed Knot wrote: I don't care where the payroll is and never have. That's not what I'm saying here. I'm talking about not finding yourself in a position where you need to replace and/or retain your #s 1, 3, & 4 starters plus your closer plus your starting CF, all just to get back to status quo (except that each is now older, more expensive, and more committed to potential down years) because they all hit 30 (or more) and hit the FA market at the same time. And this is all just one year after spending the previous winter scouring the open market to find a starting RF, LF, 3B plus several starters and several relievers because you had no in-house candidates to fill those spots or were too impatient to wait and see if you did. I understand why it's happening this way now and you can't argue with the short term results. But it's also not a trend I want to see happen each and every off-season. i think that the way this offseason went, they're setting themselves up for more of a roster that can be sustained long term. of all the signings that they've made, i don't think there are any BAD ones, where they're just throwing money out there just to say they did. in the rotation, only carrasco is a potential free agent after this season, presuming scherzer picks up his player option at $43M. canha and escobar have team options, so there's not a whole lot of need for extensive roster turnover next offseason, unless they do so at their own choosing (if baty & vientos work out, for instance) going into 25 will be a different story, mind you, unless we can get squirrel and polar bear extended...

You also got your bonus point for being one of two closest-guessers to the length of degrom's deal.

Name Pos Prev Team Actual bucket edgy mfs62 fman shake mm sharpie Aaron Judge RF/CF NYY NYY SFG SFG SFG NYM SFG NYY NYY Jacob deGrom SP NYM TEX NYM NYM ATL NYM NYM NYM NYM Carlos Correa SS MIN TEX MIA LAD NYM LAD SFG LAD Trea Turner SS/2B LAD PHI SFG LAD PHI NYM MIN PHI PHI Brandon Nimmo CF/RF/LF NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM COL COL Carlos Rodón SP SFG NYM WAS NYM NYM LAA NYM TEX Xander Bogaerts SS BOS SDP PHI TEX CHC NYM SDP MIN CHC Justin Verlander SP HOU NYM LAD BOS NYY NYM HOU LAD HOU Dansby Swanson SS ATL ATL BOS ATL NYM ATL SEA BOS Willson Contreras C CHC STL CHW CHW STL NYM CHC MIL CHC Jean Segura 2B PHI MIN COL NYY NYM CIN BOS WAS Andrew Heaney SP LAD TEX NYM SDP TEX NYM SEA NYY NYM Chris Bassitt SP NYM HOU SEA NYM NYM NYM LAD SDP José Abreu 1B CHW HOU SFG NYY BOS NYM MIA SDP NYM Nathan Eovaldi SP BOS NYM STL BOS NYM SFG HOU SF Andrew Benintendi LF/RF NYY MIA ATL PHI NYM NYY TOR NYY Mitch Haniger RF/LF SEA SFG CHC YAK SEA NYM DET NYM ARI Jose Quintana SP STL NYM KCR MIL MIL NYM STL SDP KCR Jameson Taillon SP NYY CHC WAS NYY TOR NYM TOR ATL CHC Sean Manaea SP SDP NYM NYY SDP NYM HOU NYY PIT Josh Bell 1B/DH SDP CLE CIN CLE SEA NYM WAS BOS SDP Justin Turner 3B/DH LAD CIN COL TOR NYM LAD LAA Cody Bellinger CF/RF/1B LAD CHC MIL CHC NYY NYM PIT PHI TOR Brandon Drury 3B/1B/2B/LF SDP BAL CIN CHW NYM ARI SDP MIL Michael Conforto RF/LF NYM NYM SEA NYM NYM WAS CHC SEA Jurickson Profar LF SDP BAL NYY NYY NYM DET NYY MIN [CROSSOUT] Mike Clevinger [CROSSOUT] SP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] CLE [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] PHI [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] HOU [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] NYM [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] Taijuan Walker ] NYM PHI SFG HOU PHI NYM LAA MIN MIN Noah Syndergaard SP PHI NYM CHC SDP NYM PHI BOS DET Trey Mancini 1B/LF/RF/DH HOU CLE BOS MIL NYM BAL BAL BAL Kodai Senga SP NPB NYM NYY NYM NYM NYM NYM LAA degrom years 5 4 4 3 3 3 degrom dollars 37 38 44 41 45 43 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- score 17 3 4 5 3 2 2 2

too many, lol!

fangraphs sez nimmo's 5.4 WAR 2022 was worth $43M. he projects next year at 4.6 WAR, which is a reasonable and safe projection. at that level of production, he'll could end up being quite a bargain, since OBP isn't valued in the market nearly as much as big whomping homers, or shortstopping.

based on this signing, and robertson too, fangraphs' depth charts has the mets projected as the second best team in the mlb, with a projected WAR of 51.5, just ahead of the braves at 50.9. the padres sit atop the list with a projected WAR of 52.3. a replacement-level team sits around 45-wins, as near as i can tell. the mets project currently to having the 7th best batters/fielders, and the best pitching staff. not a bad place to be after the winter meetings.

yay! now go extend squirrel and polar bear! um, and if you've still got cash to throw about, i wouldn't terribly mind senga. but i'm greedy and it ain't my money.

mets straighten up their bullpen, trading askew for raley.