metsmarathon

yeah, i get the feeling that he might end up finding himself being the guy most hurt by the QO this offseason. although usually it's a guy who's a bit more fringey as far as offering it to him in the first place.

we should extend him, fast. follow atlanta's lead for once.

i was thinking a bit on it, and especially in light of the quintana signing today, i think i'm ok with megill and peterson putatively being the 6th/7th options, pending us singing a song of senga signing. i don't like putting too many roadblocks in their collective ways to future success, but with our rotation being as generally old as it is, i figure they'll get their turns, much as with this past season. (though hopefully not as much replacing the top two guys)

this keeps the yankees from getting better in different ways, and i'm ok with it. now let's go get nimmo, damnit!

=metsmarathon post_id=113991 time=1670273866 user_id=83] would you rather have taiillon or taijuan?

han solo was still frozen in carbonite

would you rather have taiillon or taijuan?

=Gwreck post_id=113957 time=1670267602 user_id=56] =Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=113938 time=1670264395 user_id=119] How does a vesting option work?

i wouldn't be terribly upset if you won...

we have our first update of the free agent contest, although with how fast things are moving, i may need to revise this later today even! holy cow.... let me know if i missed anyone. as it currently stands, bucket is in the lead, solely based on his acumen in estimating the length and girth of jacob degrom's package. a few contestants correctly sussed out the phils as trea turners landing spot, and fman's strategy is already paying dividends. more to come, clearly. Name Pos Prev Team Actual bucket edgy mfs62 fman shake mm sharpie Aaron Judge RF/CF NYY SFG SFG SFG NYM SFG NYY NYY Jacob deGrom SP NYM TEX NYM NYM ATL NYM NYM NYM NYM Carlos Correa SS MIN TEX MIA LAD NYM LAD SFG LAD Trea Turner SS/2B LAD PHI SFG LAD PHI NYM MIN PHI PHI Brandon Nimmo CF/RF/LF NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM COL COL Carlos Rodón SP SFG NYM WAS NYM NYM LAA NYM TEX Xander Bogaerts SS BOS PHI TEX CHC NYM SDP MIN CHC Justin Verlander SP HOU NYM LAD BOS NYY NYM HOU LAD HOU Dansby Swanson SS ATL ATL BOS ATL NYM ATL SEA BOS Willson Contreras C CHC CHW CHW STL NYM CHC MIL CHC Jean Segura 2B PHI MIN COL NYY NYM CIN BOS WAS Andrew Heaney SP LAD NYM SDP TEX NYM SEA NYY NYM Chris Bassitt SP NYM HOU SEA NYM NYM NYM LAD SDP José Abreu 1B CHW HOU SFG NYY BOS NYM MIA SDP NYM Nathan Eovaldi SP BOS NYM STL BOS NYM SFG HOU SF Andrew Benintendi LF/RF NYY MIA ATL PHI NYM NYY TOR NYY Mitch Haniger RF/LF SEA CHC YAK SEA NYM DET NYM ARI Jose Quintana SP STL KCR MIL MIL NYM STL SDP KCR Jameson Taillon SP NYY WAS NYY TOR NYM TOR ATL CHC Sean Manaea SP SDP NYM NYY SDP NYM HOU NYY PIT Josh Bell 1B/DH SDP CIN CLE SEA NYM WAS BOS SDP Justin Turner 3B/DH LAD CIN COL TOR NYM LAD LAA Cody Bellinger CF/RF/1B LAD MIL CHC NYY NYM PIT PHI TOR Brandon Drury 3B/1B/2B/LF SDP BAL CIN CHW NYM ARI SDP MIL Michael Conforto RF/LF NYM NYM SEA NYM NYM WAS CHC SEA Jurickson Profar LF SDP BAL NYY NYY NYM DET NYY MIN [CROSSOUT] Mike Clevinger [CROSSOUT] SP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] CLE [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] PHI [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] HOU [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] NYM [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] Taijuan Walker ] NYM SFG HOU PHI NYM LAA MIN MIN Noah Syndergaard SP PHI NYM CHC SDP NYM PHI BOS DET Trey Mancini 1B/LF/RF/DH HOU CLE BOS MIL NYM BAL BAL BAL Kodai Senga SP NPB NYM NYY NYM NYM NYM NYM LAA degrom years 5 4 4 3 3 3 degrom dollars 37 38 44 41 45 43 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- score 1 2 0 1 1 0 1 1

The Hot Corner wrote: All I know is that the Atlanta (who I generally consider a pretty savvy organization) really screwed up when the opted to hold on to their young pitchers (Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. They definitely should have traded those guys when they first became good. Their team would have been so much better off. My basic thought is there is no one single plan that will build a consistent winner in every situation. The real challenge of building a consistent winner is to use a myriad of various strategies (wise drafting, strong player development, making trades that more often than not benefit your team, or simply making smart free agent signings that pan out more than they fail) when everyone you are competing against is attempting to do the very same thing. this. hell, they even did the unthinkable and signed greg maddux as a free agent for five damned years! what were they even thinking!?

i feel like the mets need to get a pitcher signed to a longer contract, just to give the rotation some semblance of stability down the road. to that end, i'm fairly intrigued by the idea of the contract estimates i've seen out there on senga. 4x14 sure sounds like a good idea to me, if that's what it would take to get him, and that's what fangraphs has estimated in their crowdsourcing effort. i'd like to add a vesting 5th year, or team option on there as well, but he's where i think the mets should go next. i haven't looked too deeply at the depth chart, but with verlander, we're currently 5-deep on starters with megill and peterson at the back end. Senga would push us to 6, which is where i think we should be. After Senga, i'd want to go for a reclamation project, or maybe someone who can slot into the bullpen while waiting for a chance at the rotation opening up. because i don't think we have a "next guy" waiting in the wings after megill and peterson, do we? other than maybe lucchesi. would it be crazy to offer that job to thor? probably, and he wouldn't or shouldn't take it, but a man can dream silly dreams can't he? i mean, sure, rodon would be awesome. bassit would be nice. but i think senga is the potential to be a dynamic addition to the rotation, giving nearly the same performance and maybe some stability, while retaining financial flexibility to keep on improving the team elsewhere.

wow. i'm very ok with this.

home home on the range discouraging words cloud mets fans skies as degrom departs for texas

i'm rooting like hell for degrom to earn every single penny of the texas contract. but also, fuck, i'm glad the mets aren't the ones to be paying him. i'da been real worried about a 4-year deal. i would have wanted my team to give it to him, but five? yikes. it hurts, but i'm ok. memories... memories... i mean, the dude was the best pitcher i've ever seen. only peak pedro gives him a run. i don't know how he hasn't thrown a perfecto or three yet. (other than that his control is simply too good that eventually someone's gonna get a barrel on a strike if only by accident)

if you always trade your good pitchers, you better damned well have great hitters, or you'll lose a fuck-ton of games. the way i hear it that tends to make a lot of sense is, develop pitchers, pay for hitters. and if you think about it, it's not just that pitchers are more high risk. i think the key to doing things this way is that if you're an organization that prioritizes developing quality pitchers, you'll seemingly always have another one ready to come up when the injury bug eventually hits, since you've been building organizational depth. that said, if you don't have organizational depth in hitting, well... you'll find yourself in similar dire straits, but maybe not with quite so much of a stable of albatrosses. The better strategy might be to not make overly long commitments for pitchers moreso than hitters. but any sufficiently large contract can become a franchisal anchor. i think though that really the best organizational strategy is to develop great young players, and supplement them with great reliable older players, be they on offense or defense, and be willing to be flexible as the market and your roster demands. yeah, we should probably do that.

on the bright side, our offense just got 20% better, assuming he were to have made all his starts.

damn. i forgot to put in a guess for justin turner. oh well. damned if i know where he's going. probably the diamondbacks or some bullshit... but, since jose abreu is now off the board, the polls are hereby closed. good luck to all, especially (or except) fman. Name Pos Prev Team Actual bucket edgy mfs62 fman shake mm sharpie Aaron Judge RF/CF NYY SFG SFG SFG NYM SFG NYY NYY Jacob deGrom SP NYM NYM NYM ATL NYM NYM NYM NYM Carlos Correa SS MIN TEX MIA LAD NYM LAD SFG LAD Trea Turner SS/2B LAD SFG LAD PHI NYM MIN PHI PHI Brandon Nimmo CF/RF/LF NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM NYM COL COL Carlos Rodón SP SFG NYM WAS NYM NYM LAA NYM TEX Xander Bogaerts SS BOS PHI TEX CHC NYM SDP MIN CHC Justin Verlander SP HOU LAD BOS NYY NYM HOU LAD HOU Dansby Swanson SS ATL ATL BOS ATL NYM ATL SEA BOS Willson Contreras C CHC CHW CHW STL NYM CHC MIL CHC Jean Segura 2B PHI MIN COL NYY NYM CIN BOS WAS Andrew Heaney SP LAD NYM SDP TEX NYM SEA NYY NYM Chris Bassitt SP NYM HOU SEA NYM NYM NYM LAD SDP José Abreu 1B CHW HOU SFG NYY BOS NYM MIA SDP NYM Nathan Eovaldi SP BOS NYM STL BOS NYM SFG HOU SF Andrew Benintendi LF/RF NYY MIA ATL PHI NYM NYY TOR NYY Mitch Haniger RF/LF SEA CHC YAK SEA NYM DET NYM ARI Jose Quintana SP STL KCR MIL MIL NYM STL SDP KCR Jameson Taillon SP NYY WAS NYY TOR NYM TOR ATL CHC Sean Manaea SP SDP NYM NYY SDP NYM HOU NYY PIT Josh Bell 1B/DH SDP CIN CLE SEA NYM WAS BOS SDP Justin Turner 3B/DH LAD CIN COL TOR NYM LAD LAA Cody Bellinger CF/RF/1B LAD MIL CHC NYY NYM PIT PHI TOR Brandon Drury 3B/1B/2B/LF SDP BAL CIN CHW NYM ARI SDP MIL Michael Conforto RF/LF NYM NYM SEA NYM NYM WAS CHC SEA Jurickson Profar LF SDP BAL NYY NYY NYM DET NYY MIN [CROSSOUT] Mike Clevinger [CROSSOUT] SP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] CHW [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] CLE [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] PHI [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] HOU [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] NYM [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] SDP [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] [CROSSOUT] --- [/CROSSOUT] Taijuan Walker SP NYM SFG HOU PHI NYM LAA MIN MIN Noah Syndergaard SP PHI NYM CHC SDP NYM PHI BOS DET Trey Mancini 1B/LF/RF/DH HOU CLE BOS MIL NYM BAL BAL BAL Kodai Senga SP NPB NYM NYY NYM NYM NYM NYM LAA degrom years 4 4 3 3 3 degrom dollars 38 44 41 45 43 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- score 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

still taking applications to guess incorrectly as to the landing spots of the various free agents!

Time for my guesses, which will surely be wrong. yay! Aaron Judge RF/CF NYY --- NYY Jacob deGrom SP NYM --- TEX Carlos Correa SS MIN --- SFG Trea Turner SS/2B LAD --- PHI Brandon Nimmo CF/RF/LF NYM --- COL Carlos Rodón SP SFG --- NYM Xander Bogaerts SS BOS --- MIN Justin Verlander SP HOU --- LAD Dansby Swanson SS ATL --- SEA Willson Contreras C CHC --- MIL Jean Segura 2B PHI --- BOS Andrew Heaney SP LAD --- NYY Chris Bassitt SP NYM --- LAD José Abreu 1B CHW --- SDP Nathan Eovaldi SP BOS --- HOU Andrew Benintendi LF/RF NYY --- TOR Mitch Haniger RF/LF SEA --- NYM Jose Quintana SP STL --- SDP Jameson Taillon SP NYY --- ATL Sean Manaea SP SDP --- NYY Josh Bell 1B/DH SDP --- BOS Justin Turner 3B/DH LAD --- Cody Bellinger CF/RF/1B LAD --- PHI Brandon Drury 3B/1B/2B/LF SDP --- SDP Michael Conforto RF/LF NYM --- CHC Jurickson Profar LF SDP --- NYY Mike Clevinger SP SDP --- [CROSSOUT]Too Late[/CROSSOUT] Taijuan Walker SP NYM --- MIN Noah Syndergaard SP PHI --- BOS Trey Mancini 1B/LF/RF/DH HOU --- BAL Kodai Senga SP --- NYM for one point, how many guaranteed years will degrom get? 3 for two points to the closest guesser, what will the AAV of degrom's guarranteed years be? 43

iirc, fangraphs isn't looking at it position-by-position, but rather in terms of a linear WAR-to-dollars ratio. i believe the WAR-to-dollars ratio is re-established each year based on some financial data relating to what teams pay for what production on the open market, but i'd need to dig it up. but to the larger point, to rack up WAR, one needs to not only have quality production but also quantity of production. you don't lose WAR for not playing, but you do lose the opportunity to accumulate more WAR when you're not playing. so, one thing that an independent mind could do is, presuming fangraphs uses actual prior-season WAR production in their formula (as opposed to projections) is look at pitcher salaries vs prior season production and see if they overperform or underperform. and then compare that to position players. it feels like at the top end of the market, right now, the top pitchers are being overpaid for their production, but i haven't looked at the numbers in depth. one might argue that if you consider the actual WAR-to-dollars equation to be non-linear and position dependent, then you could argue that there's benefit to having a top-flight ace pitcher that exceeds the linear value of his performance, and that would help explain the overpayment. i'm not currently in a position to do such a thing, but i'm sure there are smart people who might. and each team might come up with their own complicated multidimensional curve. to edgy's last point, though. if your pitcher throwing innings one-through-five is suppressing runs enough, then your middle relievers should have more margin for error and overall you maybe can afford to pay them less. you may view them perhaps as a grossly interchangeable asset, too, where you can keep churning through the dreck until you hit on someone capable of the job.

OK, you asked for it. or maybe i did. who can really ever be sure of these things...? for your offseason enjoyment, and enduring torment, please take a gander at the following 31 free agents and tell me, and the rest of the CPF, what team you think will sign the players listed. i've started with the top 50 free agents according to fangraphs, though i skipped over some and reached for a few other interesting names. and they all need new teams to play on. feel free to take the thanksgiving weekend to make your well-considered decisions. any free agents who sign before next monday will be off the board. the next listed free agent to sign after monday will close the contest for new entries. we'll tabulate the results either after the last free agent is off the board, or once spring training starts, whichever comes sooner. and so, without further ado... your candidates for the free agent prediction contest are listed below. Name Pos Prev Team Aaron Judge RF/CF NYY Jacob deGrom SP NYM Carlos Correa SS MIN Trea Turner SS/2B LAD Brandon Nimmo CF/RF/LF NYM Carlos Rodón SP SFG Xander Bogaerts SS BOS Justin Verlander SP HOU Dansby Swanson SS ATL Willson Contreras C CHC Jean Segura 2B PHI Andrew Heaney SP LAD Chris Bassitt SP NYM José Abreu 1B CHW Nathan Eovaldi SP BOS Andrew Benintendi LF/RF NYY Mitch Haniger RF/LF SEA Jose Quintana SP STL Jameson Taillon SP NYY Sean Manaea SP SDP Josh Bell 1B/DH SDP Justin Turner 3B/DH LAD Cody Bellinger CF/RF/1B LAD Brandon Drury 3B/1B/2B/LF SDP Michael Conforto RF/LF NYM Jurickson Profar LF SDP Mike Clevinger SP SDP Taijuan Walker SP NYM Noah Syndergaard SP PHI Trey Mancini 1B/LF/RF/DH HOU Kodai Senga SP and the bonus round: for one point, how many guaranteed years will degrom get? for two points to the closest guesser, what will the AAV of degrom's guarranteed years be? Good luck to all, and especially to the mets.

i really hope he finds himself a good landing spot going forward. he's definitely got a lot of good baseball in him, just not here in new york. i could see him doing very well in san diego, for instance. hey, we should have a free agent contest. i'm not volunteering to put it together though. (not yet at least) besides, if i did, it would be mistyped, undercapitalized, and probably with some fun made up words sprinkled throughout.

i think it's just because rotoworld sees baseball through the lens of fantasy baseball, not in terms of actual real teams and real players.

fangraphs has degrom as the 4th best free agent available this offseason. Their expert predicts 3x47, though hte crowdsourcing estimates about 3x40 or so. that's steep but... man... degrom is so good [asterisk] [asterisk] when healthy