Benjamin Grimm

Brian Reynolds robbed of a game-tying homer, then shortly after, the third out. Reds win, 2-1.

Last stand for the Pirates. Down by one run going into the top of the ninth. The 2-3-4 hitters are due up.

The corners seem to be occupied for a while, with Nimmo and Soto still having years left on their contracts. If Ewing is also an infielder, he may find an easier path there.

Another groundout brings home the run, but now the bases are empty with two out. 2-1 Reds. Am I the only one watching this game?

Pirates get a leadoff double from the 7 hitter, who then advances to third on a groundout.

Going into the eighth. Pirates still down by two.

Their starter is coming out in the 7th with a possible injury. Maybe the Pirates can get to the Reds' bullpen.

But then the Reds quickly plate two runners. At least it wasn't three. And... a new pitcher for the Pirates.

Pirates win a challenge, and the Reds' first run of the game is overturned and the runner is out at the plate.

Weather delay in Cincinnati. Weather reports indicate that it should stop raining at around 2 p.m.

I think, in the cases of Senga and Manaea, it may be about injury recoveries. Senga was terrific until he got hurt this year, and as we saw last October, he needs recovery time. Maybe that's the case with Manaea as well. Not sure what to thing about Peterson, though. I remember thinking, going into the season, that the rotation didn't have enough depth. When Senga and Canning and Megill disappeared, the lack of depth was exposed. Next year they'll have Manaea, Senga, Peterson, Tong, McLean, Sproat, and Holmes plus whoever they might add to that. Hopefully they'll be better positioned.

Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks all lost yesterday. Our two rivals both lost extra-inning games at home, so that's kinda nice. There's still a possibility of a five-way tie for that third wild card spot, where the Mets, Arizona, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and San Francisco all end up 81-81. If that happens, the Mets win! They're 14-11 against the other four teams, which is the best record. Arizona is 15-16, Cincinnati is 17-17, San Francisco is 13-18, and St. Louis is 16-16. In the more likely event of a three-way tie between the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Reds, it's the Reds who would win out. They're 8-4 against the Mets and Diamondbacks, compared to the 5-7 record that the other two teams would bring to the tiebreaker. Mets Magic Number by team: Arizona Diamondbacks 4 Cincinnati Reds 4 St. Louis Cardinals 0 San Francisco Giants 0 The Mets hold the tie-breaker advantage over the Giants and Cardinals. The Reds and Diamondbacks have the advantage over the Mets.

I considered that a few years ago, but at this point I don't think there are going to be any new UMDB features. In fact, I'm planning on starting to scale it down this offseason.

Thirteen wins. (Only two for the Wild Card round.) The Mets of May and early June could have been an October powerhouse. The current team is just limping along. But yes, things can change in a hurry. Soto or Lindor or Alonso can have a stretch where they carry the team. And that, or something like it, has to be where we hang our hats.

Well, there are no spreadsheets involved. There had been originally, until I created the online form that enforces the voting rules, saves the votes to a database and does the tallying. (Before that I had to prorate for people who awarded more than ten points, fix misspellings, and other headaches.) Maintaining Schaefer has been pretty easy, but with only six participants (in addition to myself) and little reaction to the posted results, the few minutes a day it required was taking up more headspace than I cared to give anymore. I appreciate everyone who's been participating, but to everything a season and all that, and Schaefer's time has come to an end.

If the Mets should make it to the Wild Card round, I guess they go with McLean and Sproat as their starters? And then... Holmes? Their rotation is such a mess they'll have a hard time going deep into October this year. At this point, it's hard to have faith in Peterson or Senga or Manaea or Tong. I guess I'm just hoping that they manage to dip their toes into the postseason and hope things suddenly fall into place.

http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/images/schaefer11goob.jpg> http://potg.leaptoad.com/mets/index.phpCast your vote!

Okay, so if the Dodgers beat Arizona, the day will be a wash. More or less.

Manfred recently said that he's become optimistic that the Rays will stay in Tampa/St. Pete. I don't know what he based that one because the article was behind a firewall; I was just able to read the first paragraph. It seems likely that one of the two expansion teams will be in the west, Portland or Salt Lake City. Maybe both, but it seems like Tennessee or North Carolina also have a pretty good shot.

If it was a one-game race, meaning the Mets were one game ahead of both the Reds and the Diamondbacks on Sunday morning, there are three games to be played, and eight possible outcomes: 1. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks win 2. Mets win, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose 3. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win 4. Mets win, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose 5. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks win 6. Mets lose, Reds win, Diamondbacks lose 7. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks win 8. Mets lose, Reds lose, Diamondbacks lose Numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 put the Mets in the playoffs, which makes their chance 62.5 percent. (Five out of eight.) With five games remaining, and 32,768 possibilities, it's seemingly more complicated, but the same rules apply.

This is what Microsoft Copilot has to say: 🧮 Total Scenarios Each of the 15 remaining games (5 per team × 3 teams) has 2 outcomes → 2^15 = 32,768 total scenarios 🎯 Goal Count how many of those scenarios satisfy: Mets win ≥ Reds wins Mets win ≥ Diamondbacks wins 🧠 Strategy We’ll iterate over all possible win totals for each team (0 to 5 wins), and count how many combinations satisfy the condition. Let’s define: 𝑀 : Mets wins (0–5) 𝑅 : Reds wins (0–5) 𝐷 : Diamondbacks wins (0–5) Each team’s 5 games have: (5/𝑘) ways to win 𝑘 games So total combinations for a given (M, R, D) triple: (5/𝑀)⋅(5/𝑅)⋅(5/𝐷) We sum over all triples where 𝑀≥𝑅 and 𝑀≥𝐷 ✅ Valid Triples Let’s compute the total: plaintext For M = 0: R = 0, D = 0 → 1×1×1 = 1 For M = 1: R = 0–1, D = 0–1 → 2×2 = 4 For M = 2: R = 0–2, D = 0–2 → 3×3 = 9 For M = 3: R = 0–3, D = 0–3 → 4×4 = 16 For M = 4: R = 0–4, D = 0–4 → 5×5 = 25 For M = 5: R = 0–5, D = 0–5 → 6×6 = 36 Now weight each by the number of ways to get that win count: {Complicated formula that doesn't paste well} Let’s compute that: M Ways (M) Valid R Valid D Total Combos 0 1 1 1 1×1×1 = 1 1 5 1+5=6 1+5=6 5×6×6 = 180 2 10 1+5+10=16 1+5+10=16 10×16×16 = 2,560 3 10 1+5+10+10=26 same 10×26×26 = 6,760 4 5 1+5+10+10+5=31 same 5×31×31 = 4,805 5 1 1+5+10+10+5+1=32 same 1×32×32 = 1,024 🔢 Final Total 1+180+2,560+6,760+4,805+1,024=15,330 ✅ Answer Out of 32,768 possible scenarios, there are 15,330 where the Mets win as many or more games than both the Reds and Diamondbacks.

For the 15 games, there are 32,768 possible outcomes. Some of these will have the outcome you mentioned, where there are days when the Mets win and the Diamondbacks and Reds both lose. And there are others where that won't happen. But you can look at each of the 32,768 combinations and determine in how many the Mets win the wild card, and in how many it's the Reds or the Diamondbacks.

You're so old-fashioned! You don't need to be married to have kids! I think what FK is doing is he's seeing all of the possible combinations of outcomes of the 15 games remaining among the Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks. And since none of these teams play each other, each outcome is independent of the others.

Sorry! I had gotten it to the point where it took very little effort, but so few people were interested anymore that it began to not even feel like it was worth that small effort.