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[Frayed Knot]

Well, we were sitting on a slew of bats in a year when virtually ALL the deadline movement across MLB has been pitching.
Only the relatively minor deal involving Lucroy was a for bat.

[Guest sharpie]

I have to think that Asdrubel or Neil Walker would get through waivers. Bruce maybe not.

[Frayed Knot]

sharpie wrote: I have to think that Asdrubel or Neil Walker would get through waivers.

And probably Granderson as well.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Edgy MD wrote: Who is this unicorn of whom you speak?

I'm not talking unicorns; I'm talking horses. In exchange for a minor-league starter with real promise, a very solid major-league closer, a power-hitting first baseman, and a low-grade Cespedes, we've acquired a slightly poorer major-league closer with one more year of team control and four Shetland ponies.

The Sox have Bryan Mata, Kyle Shawaryn, Jamal Beeks (a lefty!), Jake Cosart, and about a half-dozen others with near-to-mid-term mid-rotation potential, at least. (Never mind prime position players and first-round prize lefty Jason Groome.) I'd rather have position players, all being equal, but if we're "restocking" on arms as stated, then why are we setting our sights on non-dominant guys who have already failed the starter test before reaching AA?

[seawolf17]

Because it's entirely possible that it was the best offer they got? All we know is what the end deal was. We have no idea who's actually on the table.

[Edgy MD]

What remains to be seen is whether this has indeed been "targeted" as you describe, or simply the best of what's been offered back. (O.E: What the Wolf said.)

But since the team's relief pitching has been very very bad (only the perennial batting practice-throwing pen in Cincinnati has been worse among NL teams) and since a very specific dearth was created in this department by the 2015 trading binge, I accept and embrace our relief pitching overlords.

I imagine they still think they have enough starting pitching to re-establish it as an organizational strength.

[Chad ochoseis]

And Bruce? QO at the end of the season, I would think. If he gets a better offer, good luck to him and we get the sandwich pick and an outfield of Cespedes-Nimmo-Conforto. If he stays, it's Cespedes-Conforto-Bruce with Nimmo as a 4th OF.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Was the trade with the Rays for the @wefollowlucasduda Instagram account our best deadline deal?

[ashie62]

We got three rated prospects for Reed. I'll take it.

[Frayed Knot]

Chad Ochoseis wrote: And Bruce? QO at the end of the season, I would think. If he gets a better offer, good luck to him and we get the sandwich pick and an outfield of Cespedes-Nimmo-Conforto. If he stays, it's Cespedes-Conforto-Bruce with Nimmo as a 4th OF.

It should be noted that changes to the CBA last year further limit the value of picks received by a team for a player rejecting their QO starting in the 2018 draft.
From now on only those teams which are in position to receive revenue sharing money get a pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds (pick # 30-something). All others pick up a pick between rounds 2 and 3,
one that's more likely to be in the 70-80 range.


The result -- or at least the intent -- will likely be fewer 'borderline' QO offerings in the future. I doubt Walker, for instance, would have been offered last year if MLB was operating under these new rules.

[smg58]

The Mets were in a bind in a market that was openly hostile to two-month rentals. The alternative to getting pennies on the dollar for Reed and Duda was holding on to them and giving them the qualifying offer. That would most likely have meant paying Reed an obscene amount of money for a reliever, although you would still have Reed and Merandy Gonzalez. In Duda's case, you would have to have been willing to try out Dominic Smith at third in order to go that route.

Giving Bruce the QO makes sense at this point, especially since he might not clear waivers (or bring back much if he does). The others will clear waivers. Barring character issues that may or may not be overblown, there is no urgency in dealing Cabrera. It would basically cost the Mets $6.5M to pick up his option, which is not unreasonable.

[Frayed Knot]

smg58 wrote: The Mets were in a bind in a market that was openly hostile to two-month rentals.

Particularly when it came to hitters

In Duda's case, you would have to have been willing to try out Dominic Smith at third in order to go that route.

Not an option since Smith throws lefty. As much as we may have liked Lucas he had to go and it makes zero sense to bring him back.

The others will clear waivers. Barring character issues that may or may not be overblown, there is no urgency in dealing Cabrera. It would basically cost the Mets $6.5M to pick up his option, which is not unreasonable.

One could make an argument for either Cabrera OR Reyes in 2018 as an all-around backup IF, but that's an issue to discuss in more detail this winter.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: smg58 wrote: In Duda's case, you would have to have been willing to try out Dominic Smith at third in order to go that route. Not an option since Smith throws lefty. As much as we may have liked Lucas he had to go and it makes zero sense to bring him back.

meh, he's one of the best hitters on the team and Smith is a prospect. He could still flame out for all we know. You could push for the DH for the other 150 games, juggle the position, play Duda in RF sometimes since the Mets don't seem to care about defense anyway.

I mean, just handing the job to a prospect with less than two months of major league experience shouldn't ever be a given.

[Edgy MD]

You could push for the DH?

[Centerfield]

Ceetar wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: smg58 wrote: In Duda's case, you would have to have been willing to try out Dominic Smith at third in order to go that route. Not an option since Smith throws lefty. As much as we may have liked Lucas he had to go and it makes zero sense to bring him back. meh, he's one of the best hitters on the team and Smith is a prospect. He could still flame out for all we know. You could push for the DH for the other 150 games, juggle the position, play Duda in RF sometimes since the Mets don't seem to care about defense anyway. I mean, just handing the job to a prospect with less than two months of major league experience shouldn't ever be a given.

Duda has a .911 OPS. Smith is cheap, and young, and will play better defense, but .900 OPS guys don't just fall out of a tree.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If the Mets had a .900 OPS guy fall out of a tree, he'd probably break his shoulder.

[Guest 41Forever]

Edgy MD wrote: You could push for the DH?

Commissioner Manfred, we really like our powerful, though streaky, oft-injured, wrong-side-of-30 player, but we have no where to play him. We ask that you abandon the remaining bit of National League sanity and adopt the DH so we can keep him.

Not gonna fly.

[Ceetar]

41Forever wrote: You could push for the DH? Commissioner Manfred, we really like our powerful, though streaky, oft-injured, wrong-side-of-30 player, but we have no where to play him. We ask that you abandon the remaining bit of National League sanity and adopt the DH so we can keep him. Not gonna fly.

Well of course not, we'd play David Wright there, not Duda.

[Frayed Knot]

Ceetar wrote: meh, he's one of the best hitters on the team and Smith is a prospect. He could still flame out for all we know. You could push for the DH for the other 150 games, juggle the position, play Duda in RF sometimes since the Mets don't seem to care about defense anyway. I mean, just handing the job to a prospect with less than two months of major league experience shouldn't ever be a given.

Duda has a .911 OPS. Smith is cheap, and young, and will play better defense, but .900 OPS guys don't just fall out of a tree.

So what's the point here, that we should keep Duda for QO money (probably north of $18 mil) or resign him to a multi-year deal at market prices AND try to work Smith in at the same time even though they both swing lefty and are limited to the same position on the field?

That's nuts folks.
Duda will be 32 next season and has a career 800 OPS. And even if you want to look at only 2016-17 and claim that 900 is now his new normal, while also ignoring that those years totaled less than a full season's worth of ABs (barely over 400) due to injuries, AND that you expect him to keep duplicating that as he turns 32, 33, 34 - it means you're content to see the 22 y/o Smith sit around for the occasional PH appearance and/or wait in Vegas for another injury.

If you're that intent on keeping Duda then you need to deal Smith off in some sort of 'challenge trade' for a prospect at a different position; this has to be an either/or proposition.
And as long as you keep in mind that a 1B prospect will probably get you a lesser prospect at any other position, you're free to submit your WATPs for Smith anytime.


Will Smith ultimately be the better player? I have no idea but we're going to need to find out at some point and if that time is not when the existing guy's contract is up and the replacement is hitting .340 in AAA I'm not sure there ever will be a time. Ultimately I'm going to bet on the guy who's going to be 22-27 in the next five years over the one going to be 32-37, but that's just me.

Edited August 1, 2017 by Guest

[nymr83]

Frayed Knot wrote: Quick question: why are we AIMING at guys who are minor league relievers? Because our requests for Evan Longoria and Mookie Betts were turned down?

Admit it, you want Longoria here just for the wives thread.

[bmfc1]

Fangraphs projections show that Sandy didn't improve the team this week:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-all-of-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline/
Maybe that's the market, maybe it's what he had to trade, or maybe he sucks at being a GM.

Smart guy Jonathan Mayo has the Mets ranks the traded prospects:
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/245610190/ranking-prospects-traded-before-the-deadline/

Joel Sherman labels the Mets as "losers" but blames the market:
http://nypost.com/2017/07/31/yankees-dodgers-big-winners-at-deadline-but-who-are-the-losers/

[MFS62]

Bottom line, we got three middle of the pack minor leaguers from an organization that is ranked 20th among minor league organizations.
As Donald's first two wives ( and a lot of Russian hookers) must have said, "Is that all there is?"

Later

[Centerfield]

meh, he's one of the best hitters on the team and Smith is a prospect. He could still flame out for all we know. You could push for the DH for the other 150 games, juggle the position, play Duda in RF sometimes since the Mets don't seem to care about defense anyway. I mean, just handing the job to a prospect with less than two months of major league experience shouldn't ever be a given. Duda has a .911 OPS. Smith is cheap, and young, and will play better defense, but .900 OPS guys don't just fall out of a tree. So what's the point here, that we should keep Duda for QO money (probably north of $18 mil) or resign him to a multi-year deal at market prices AND try to work Smith in at the same time even though they both swing lefty and are limited to the same position on the field? That's nuts folks. Duda will be 32 next season and has a career 800 OPS. And even if you want to look at only 2016-17 and claim that 900 is now his new normal, while also ignoring that those years totaled less than a full season's worth of ABs (barely over 400) due to injuries, AND that you expect him to keep duplicating that as he turns 32, 33, 34 - it means you're content to see the 22 y/o Smith sit around for the occasional PH appearance and/or wait in Vegas for another injury. If you're that intent on keeping Duda then you need to deal Smith off in some sort of 'challenge trade' for a prospect at a different position; this has to be an either/or proposition. And as long as you keep in mind that a 1B prospect will probably get you a lesser prospect at any other position, you're free to submit your WATPs for Smith anytime. Will Smith ultimately be the better player? I have no idea but we're going to need to find out at some point and if that time is not when the existing guy's contract is up and the replacement is hitting .340 in AAA I'm not sure there ever will be a time. Ultimately I'm going to bet on the guy who's going to be 22-27 in the next five years over the one going to be 32-37, but that's just me.

My quote above was more or less in response to this:

As much as we may have liked Lucas he had to go and it makes zero sense to bring him back.

I don't think it makes zero sense. And I know you didn't mean it literally, but I don't think the answer is as clear cut you suggest. In the end, all things considered, I think you have to try out Dominic Smith, but this is the riskier move for a team trying to win it all next year.

Smith looks like a great fielder, a good hitter and is cheap, allowing us to use money elsewhere, but he will most likely be an offensive downgrade from Duda for 2018. And Duda has a few years left of his prime, so maybe for the next 2-3 years as well.

Gun to my head, I think you make this move. Smith is "ready", as far as we can tell, and a high-average, contact hitting doubles machine that sprays the ball might be exactly what this team needs.

But if they re-signed Duda, and traded Smith for a 2B/CF version of Smith, or used him as part of a package to get that, then I could see the value in that as well.

I don't know. Maybe I'm just attached to the guy. Or I'm afraid of getting burnt. I just have this sinking feeling he's going to hit 75 HR's next year for someone else. Letting Murphy walk and replacing him with Neil Walker made a lot of sense at the time too.

[Edgy MD]

Centerfield wrote: I just have this sinking feeling he's going to hit 75 HR's next year for someone else.

I realize this is fatalism more than analysis, but I hear ya. He's got a .604 slugging percentage at Citizen's Bank Park. And it's not like the sample size is all that small.

But hard choices gotta be made.

[Frayed Knot]

Centerfield wrote: I don't think it makes zero sense. And I know you didn't mean it literally, ...

No, I pretty much did mean it literally - at least as far as trying to keep both.
The only way to keep Duda -- and which you mention towards the end -- is to commit to him completely with a FA contract and hope that you can deal Smith off for a similar type prospect at a
different position, a condition which carries the caveat that whatever middle of the field guy you'd get for Smith is going to be a lesser hitting prospect because of the positional advantage so
you'd need to adjust your expectations accordingly.

[Edgy MD]

Bruce has an eight-team no-trade clause, which includes the Rays, Twins and Yankees, a source recently told James Wagner of the New York Times.

I love this big bastid.

[Benjamin Grimm]

From Newsday...

Mets could pick up Asdrubal Cabrera’s club option, sources say

Marc Carig wrote: The Mets have warmed to the idea of picking up Asdrubal Cabrera’s $8.5-million team option for next season, sources told Newsday, even after the drama that unfolded earlier this season when the infielder resisted a move from shortstop.

Marc Carig wrote: Also, sources said that the Mets have shown a willingness to explore keeping rightfielder Jay Bruce past this season. There have been no extension talks, with Bruce setting himself up to test the waters of free agency should he continue what has been a career season. But earlier this week, general manager Sandy Alderson offered a clear signal of the Mets’ thinking. He expressed a growing organizational belief that Michael Conforto has shown the capability to play centerfield for the next few years, an alignment that would open the door for the Mets to retain Bruce past this season.

[Edgy MD]

Those both sound like some serious turnabout.

I imagine Cabrera's recently demonstrated utility has been worth something to them. I'm not sure it's been worth 8.5 big ones.

Only so many roster slots, Mets. I'm curious if they plan on making some consolidation trades.

[smg58]

It's 6.5 big ones if you count the 2 for the buyout they're already paying for regardless. I don't think it would take that much of a bounceback to justify that cost, if he can settle in defensively at second or third. Again, if other teams aren't valuing a guy that has value, you might as well work with what you have rather than keep trying to fight against this market.

[Vic Sage]

l could live with a platoon/rotation of Cabrera, Flores, Reyes and Rivera at 2b/3b next year. They're all useful players with specific strengths and, with Rosario at ss and Smith at 1b, could be a solid IF. And ditto for Cespedes, Conforto and Bruce in the OF (backed up by Lagares and Nimmo), but we definitely need an upgrade at catcher. RRivera is an adequate backup, but this should be it for d'Arnaud. He has move lives than a cat, but how many chances does he get before we move on?