The Edge of Seventeen: Matt Harvey

[Edgy MD]

Two major surgeries in the last three years. It doesn't sound like a superhero story. But maybe it will by the time they're done writing it.

I'm Matt Harvey, I like big cars, big-shot city life, partying with models, pushing the Harvey brand, golfing with our daily disgrace of a president, and Derek Jeter. And every fifth day, I like tearing through an enemy lineup. I hope I can still do it. Because it would be a shame if the last thing on that list was Derek Jeter.

Can I still do it?

[fimg=413:1tt52lsi]http://i.imgur.com/BJ75dwh.jpg[/fimg:1tt52lsi] [fimg=437:1tt52lsi]http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/culture_test/matt%20harvey%20banner.jpg[/fimg:1tt52lsi]
[fimg=219:1tt52lsi]http://image.nj.com/home/njo-media/width620/img/nj-river/photo/13059357-standard.jpg[/fimg:1tt52lsi] [fimg=194:1tt52lsi]https://nyoobserver.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/matt-harvey.jpg?quality=80[/fimg:1tt52lsi] [fimg=194:1tt52lsi]https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/matt_harvey-300x4501.jpg?quality=90&strip=all[/fimg:1tt52lsi] [fimg=235:1tt52lsi]http://larrybrownsports.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Matt-Harvey-middle-finger.jpg[/fimg:1tt52lsi]

[Benjamin Grimm]

My expectations... are not high.

I hope he surprises me.

If he proves to be healthy, there's an excellent chance he'll be traded, either by July 31 or, more likely, over the winter.

[MFS62]

He becomes mortal and pitches to a pedestrian 3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, with 7.6K /9 IP and 3.8 BB/ 9 IP in 155 IP. (OK, so not too bad)
And the fans let him know it.

Later

Edited March 8, 2017 by Guest

[Benjamin Grimm]

If he averages 7.6 strikeouts per inning then there are going to be an extraordinary number of passed balls.

[Guest 41Forever]

I'm optimistic. I think he's back, though April might be a time of shaking off rust and making adjustments. I think he catches fire as the temperature warms and isn't quite the dominant ace we once saw, but is a humbler, effective stud.

[ashie62]

Very hopeful. 180 IP and 15 wins.

This was before I saw Harveys velocity was 87-90

Edited March 8, 2017 by Guest

[A Boy Named Seo]

Harvey golfed with Trump? He's like Tom Brady, minus all the winning.

[MFS62]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If he averages 7.6 strikeouts per inning then there are going to be an extraordinary number of passed balls.

Fixed.
Later

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Yeah I think baseball isn't quite finished humbling him yet.

I know I predicted a gigantic earth shattering trade but scared now that his being an average No. 4/5 starter won't shatter earths.

He'll have his moments. The Post and Snooze will declare on three separate occasions that he's back, but the irony for Hovvey is he's destined for unremarkability: 8-7, 3.60, 150 innings 120 Ks

[Guest d'Kong76]

Puts up more than decent #3 starter stuff but there will be issues
(off-field and in the clubhouse) that fester to the point he says, "fuck
it, if you wanna trade me just trade me." And they do, in July.

[seawolf17]

15-9 in 33 starts, 3.88 ERA. Gets beat up a little bit in the summer, but muscles through it.

[Lefty Specialist]

I'm guessing he breaks down again somewhere along the line. 11-10, 4.00 ERA.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Here's Harvey's write-up from Baseball Prospectus' 2016 Annual, published just before the start of the 2016 season:

On October 23rd [2015], David Wright, Jacob deGrom, Wilmer Flores and Harvey were guests on Jimmy Kimmel Live in front of a live crowd in Brooklyn. The former three could not stop grinning. The captain Wright did the bulk of the interview. Flores spoke of what it's like to cry in front of millions of people, and deGrom's hair became a popular Halloween costume. Harvey trailed off after 10 words, all about Chase Utley. When the segment was over, Kimmel issued Harvey a quick apology, saying he'd run out of time. Harvey didn't seem offended, just uncomfortable, like he didn't want to be there. That's where he always fit with the 2015 Mets, for what ever reason, while everyone else was grinning, there was Harvey with a scowl, always with his own business to attend to. Nonsense story lines about innings limits and model girlfriends and missed workouts didn't make him look like a star, on this team, they made him look like an outcast. On the mound, he wasn't quite the same. The line drive rates on his fastball and changeup soared in 2015, and he got lost in the crowd of so many other incredible young talents. Yet he adjusted and became a more complete pitcher with massively improved breaking stuff, and in the postseason we found out he has real guts. He is, in all likelihood, a good guy and a fine teammate. But now that the narrative ball is rolling, it will be tough to stop.

And here's his write-up from this year's BP:

Well, The Dark Kniight Rises was a pretty lousy movie by the end. Gotham's former savior was brutal for half the season, and all involved claimed he was healthy, which was alarming because a healthy Matt Harvey should never be that bad. It was almost a relief to find out there was an underlying medical diagnosis -- except the diagnosis turned out to be thoracic outlet syndrome, a nerve and blood vessel issue in the chest and shoulder that has been the bane of many good pitchers' existence. Research by Craig Edwards of FanGraphs and Carl Triano of Beyond the Box Score shows that the range of outcomes for pitchers suffering from thoracic outlet syndrome varies wildly. Some pitchers, like Kenny Rogers and Aaron Cook, have returned healthy and nearly as effective as before, while others never pitched well again, like Chris Carpenter. Overall, the group was a bit worse than their career marks on ERA- and FIP- upon returning, and many had their careers ultimately shortened. But no pitcher has ever had thoracic outlet syndrome as an ace in his twenties, like harvey. We'll start finding out in spring training whether Harvey can start to being Christian Bale in 2017, as the Mets certainly need him to be more than Ben Affleck.

[metirish]

My mate Nick is adamant Harvey is "finished", this is based loosely on Harvey hitting 91 and deGROM 97 , I know.

[Guest 41Forever]

He looked pretty good at the game I saw last Friday. Granted, it was three innings in a spring start. He did get up in the zone a lot. And, as would happen when you are up in the zone, gave up a homer. But he didn't look like a guy who was finished.

[Ceetar]

The velocity is concerning, though perhaps not that concerning given he's coming back from surgery, but at least it's still 90+ and all.

He won't contend for the Cy Young this year, but I think he'll be good, and I think April will be his worst month.

170 IP (and some Boras griping about innings post-surgery again because Boras)

9.1 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. 3.4 ERA overall, but it's 2.93 after April. 3.2 fWAR

3 skipped starts in deference to inning limit bs.

All sorts of silly off the field stuff that the media loves.

Dates a redhead.

[TransMonk]

My patience for Harvey will be much shorter than last year. Especially with Lugo, Gsellman and hopefully (eventually) Wheeler all in the mix.

[Centerfield]

Not looking so good here. I guess we have to be patient. Will be rooting hard for Matt this year, but it's hard to see him getting back to form with the way he's looked this spring.

[Frayed Knot]

I'm starting to wonder if Harvey might be the odd man out to start the season.

Nothing permanent obviously (unless things really go south) but it would seem to me that his position is certainly less solid than Syndergaard, Matz, and deGrom, leaving only two from the Harvey, Wheeler, Gsellman, Lugo quartet to fill out the rotation as we begin April.
Not even sure if he can be sent down which means he may need to be DL'd if they don't think he'll be ready ... and won't he and Scott Boras like that!!

[Edgy MD]

Well, a few weeks of abbreviated workdays doing rehab starts in the minors would certainly be a means to control his total innings, and that should be a be a pleasing prospect to his agent.

[Frayed Knot]

I suppose as long as Harvey is not on a split contract and therefore earning a fraction of his ML money (I assume he isn't), and that this theoretical minor league banishment isn't enough to delay his
impending post-2018 FA-gency by another year (looks like he'd have to lose almost a half-season worth of ML days before that would occur) then, yeah, Boras shouldn't have a problem with it.
Then the only problem would be a pissed-off Harvey who'd be forced to spend a portion of the season far away from both his NY Rangers and all his model girlfriends.