Free Agent Season

[Benjamin Grimm]

Ex-GM forecasts top free agent moves

For whatever it's worth, Jim Duquette has the Mets interested in Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, and Colby Rasmus.

He predicts that the Mets will get Desmond. He also says Heyward to the Cardinals, Cespedes to the Padres, Upton and Murphy to the Angels, Zobrist to the Dodgers, Fowler to the Tigers, and Rasmus to the Astros.

[Centerfield]

Good article. I don't know if he's right, but I like the size of the contracts he is predicting for the top line guys. None seem overly stupid.

I don't get the buzz around Desmond. .674 OPS with 27 errors. A team with Ian Desmond should be looking to upgrade by getting a guy like Wilmer Flores.

[MFS62]

Centerfield wrote: Good article. I don't know if he's right, but I like the size of the contracts he is predicting for the top line guys. None seem overly stupid. I don't get the buzz around Desmond. .674 OPS with 27 errors. A team with Ian Desmond should be looking to upgrade by getting a guy like Wilmer Flores.

Exactly. Wilmer showed over the last half of the season and in the post season that he is capable of handling the position defensively. There are other holes to be filled during the off season - second base, center field, third base, bench and bullpen that have a higher priority.

Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: Good article. I don't know if he's right, but I like the size of the contracts he is predicting for the top line guys. None seem overly stupid. I don't get the buzz around Desmond. .674 OPS with 27 errors. A team with Ian Desmond should be looking to upgrade by getting a guy like Wilmer Flores.

Desmond is the archetypical post-Madoff Mets free agent acquisition: a player on the downside who has a decent chance of sucking, so he won't cost as much -- this is the main consideration -- but with enough of a history in the rear-view mirror that makes the Mets getting lucky just a tiny bit plausible. Ian Desmond, meet Michael Cuddyer. It's shopping in the damaged goods section.

[Benjamin Grimm]

MFS62 wrote: Exactly. Wilmer showed over the last half of the season and in the post season that he is capable of handling the position defensively. There are other holes to be filled during the off season - second base, center field, third base, bench and bullpen that have a higher priority.

I think that if they sign a shortstop, they would be filling the hole at second base, because Wilmer would likely move over there, at least for the immediate future. Herrera might eventually displace Flores at second, but that would be a bit further down the road.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Does anyone understand the nuances of Desmond's struggles this year -- injury? personal turmoil? over the hill? Bad relationship with management? Because he at least once was a good+ player, albeit one who whiffs a little too much. You figure he's the kind of player some team will gamble on fixing with a good hitting coach or something.

[seawolf17]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: For whatever it's worth, Jim Duquette has the Mets interested in Jason Heyward, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, and Colby Rasmus.

Sounds good to me.

Granderson RF
Murphy 2B
Wright 3B
Upton RCF
Heyward LCF
Cespedes CF
Duda 1B
Zobrist MI
d'Arnaud C
Conforto LF
Desmond SSS
Rasmus DH
Flores SS
Fowler SCF

[Benjamin Grimm]

The Royals would still be able to find a way to dunk in a late-inning game-tying hit.

[Centerfield]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Does anyone understand the nuances of Desmond's struggles this year -- injury? personal turmoil? over the hill? Bad relationship with management? Because he at least once was a good+ player, albeit one who whiffs a little too much. You figure he's the kind of player some team will gamble on fixing with a good hitting coach or something.

On the fielding side, he seems to have always made a ton of errors.

On the hitting side, Nats guys say he rebounded in the second half. He still hit 19 HR's.

But his OPS has declined over the last 4 years. Might just be getting old.

[Vic Sage]

the one edge we have over the Cards is that their arrogance prohibits them from overbidding on a guy like Heyward. "We're the NL Yankees," they say, "and you should be honored to play with us, so we don't pay top dollar." So we need to use that advantage. Assuming Fred has the wherewithal and Sandy believes in Heyward.

As for Desmond, he's a 20/20 SS who gives you 3+ WAR every year, with a net positive dWAR every year. 2 years ago, Desmond went 24hr/24sb, with 3.8WAR. Even in a crappy year, he gave you a 2+ WAR, which is more than double what Flores produced. And he's 30, so he probably has a few productive years left. That being said, i don't think, he's a marked improvement over Flores (Dez has more defensive range, but he's more erratic, and he's got more speed, but makes less contact, with over 180 Ks a year), with Flores on the upside and Desmond having peaked and perhaps on the downside. I don't think a combo of Desmond/Flores is significantly better than either Flores/Herrera or even Tejada/Flores, so the impact we need is best served by finding an OF bat.

[Ceetar]

I've never really liked Desmond, can't put my finger on it. I didn't like him last year in the rumors (particularly for the asking price) either and that was before he continued his downward trend.

He actually had less fWAR than Flores. (though granted, a higher fWAR/g) But that's mainly because it gave them about equal credit defensively. I know Desmond WAS that bad early on, but I thought he played well afterwards. maybe not.

At this point, feels like paying for reputation and eh. If we're going to upgrade SS, and I think it should be a legitimate question since I don't particularly trust Flores, I'd like to get at least above average hitting or defense.

[Frayed Knot]

Desmond defensively is the polar opposite of Flores. Desmond is MUCH more athletic with all that entails: better arm, quicker release, better range, etc., and will make the spectacular play. But is also more prone to kicking the routine ball and his errors seem to snowball into another in groups; not really sure why that is.

Given the choice FOR THIS YEAR you'd want Desmond but of course that choice isn't on the table.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Frayed Knot wrote: Given the choice FOR THIS YEAR you'd want Desmond but of course that choice isn't on the table.

They can do what the Marlins did to Reyes. Sign him but refuse a no-trade clause and then deal him after the first season.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Oh, and a couple of days before you trade him, tell him to buy a house.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Centerfield wrote: On the fielding side, he seems to have always made a ton of errors. On the hitting side, Nats guys say he rebounded in the second half. He still hit 19 HR's. But his OPS has declined over the last 4 years. Might just be getting old.

Over the second half last year, he hit .262/.331/.446 with 12 HRs, right in line with his peak-year numbers prior to last year. Then again, he's essentially a slightly-richer-man's Wilmer-- if, as FK points out, defensively inverse-- at this point.

As far as infield bolstering goes, I'd rather pop for a couple of years of Zobrist or, hell, Murph (who I think will hang out there a while, and may end up coming back home for 3/35, or something similar).

[Frayed Knot]

A handy-dandy synopsis of the major players for this winter.
Forget the predictions, those are just guess-work anyway, but the write-ups can be useful.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27844

[Benjamin Grimm]

Adam Rubin dashes Heyward hopes:

BOCA RATON, Fla. -- The New York Mets are shopping for a center fielder, but they are not interested in bringing in a free agent who would limit Juan Lagares to a bench role. The Mets made a sizable financial commitment to Lagares on the eve of this past season that guarantees him $2.5 million in 2016, $4.5 million in 2017, $6.5 million in 2018 and $9 million in 2019. The hope is to add a player capable of manning center field who can complement Lagares.

Mets don't want to displace Juan Lagares with outfield addition

The article also includes this little gem:

The Mets would have to weigh at that point whether in-house options such as Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Darrell Ceciliani may be just as attractive.

[Mex17]

Frayed Knot wrote: A handy-dandy synopsis of the major players for this winter. Forget the predictions, those are just guess-work anyway, but the write-ups can be useful. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27844

What possible need would the Mets have for Mike Leake?

[Benjamin Grimm]

That pick came from "Randy" who makes "his" picks at random.

[Mex17]

Adam Rubin dashes Heyward hopes: BOCA RATON, Fla. -- The New York Mets are shopping for a center fielder, but they are not interested in bringing in a free agent who would limit Juan Lagares to a bench role. The Mets made a sizable financial commitment to Lagares on the eve of this past season that guarantees him $2.5 million in 2016, $4.5 million in 2017, $6.5 million in 2018 and $9 million in 2019. The hope is to add a player capable of manning center field who can complement Lagares. Mets don't want to displace Juan Lagares with outfield addition The article also includes this little gem: The Mets would have to weigh at that point whether in-house options such as Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Darrell Ceciliani may be just as attractive.

OH GOD FORBID THAT THEY HAVE A STRONG BENCH!!!!! LET'S INSTEAD PURPOSELY MAKE THE TEAM WORSE THAN WHAT IS POSSIBLE SO THAT JUAN LAGARES CAN BE CODDLED!!

[ashie62]

t.

Centerfield wrote: Good article. I don't know if he's right, but I like the size of the contracts he is predicting for the top line guys. None seem overly stupid. I don't get the buzz around Desmond. .674 OPS with 27 errors. A team with Ian Desmond should be looking to upgrade by getting a guy like Wilmer Flores.

On the downside? he's pretty young and had one crappy year.

Get him at a discounted price, or not.

[Frayed Knot]

Mex17 wrote: A handy-dandy synopsis of the major players for this winter. Forget the predictions, those are just guess-work anyway, but the write-ups can be useful. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=27844 What possible need would the Mets have for Mike Leake?

Told ya not to look at the predictions.

[Ceetar]

yeah, but Adam Rubin is a troll, so..

[Frayed Knot]

Adam Rubin dashes Heyward hopes: BOCA RATON, Fla. -- The New York Mets are shopping for a center fielder, but they are not interested in bringing in a free agent who would limit Juan Lagares to a bench role. The Mets made a sizable financial commitment to Lagares on the eve of this past season that guarantees him $2.5 million in 2016, $4.5 million in 2017, $6.5 million in 2018 and $9 million in 2019. The hope is to add a player capable of manning center field who can complement Lagares. Mets don't want to displace Juan Lagares with outfield addition The article also includes this little gem: The Mets would have to weigh at that point whether in-house options such as Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Darrell Ceciliani may be just as attractive. OH GOD FORBID THAT THEY HAVE A STRONG BENCH!!!!! LET'S INSTEAD PURPOSELY MAKE THE TEAM WORSE THAN WHAT IS POSSIBLE SO THAT JUAN LAGARES CAN BE CODDLED!!

The point is (as discussed in the other thread) that if you bring in a top FA it would be for the purpose of replacing an incumbent like Lagares not with the idea of platooning with him.
No FA at or near his prime is going to sign up for a part-time job or a short-term one, and the Mets aren't going to shelve Lagares to a once a week start/PH status for the next several seasons just a year after committing to a multi-year deal to him.

[Centerfield]

The platoon is already there. Granderson and Lagares split CF. sign a premiere corner guy.

If it's Heyward, you can play him in center over Granderson.

Signing Lagares long term was dumb.

[Mex17]

Adam Rubin dashes Heyward hopes: BOCA RATON, Fla. -- The New York Mets are shopping for a center fielder, but they are not interested in bringing in a free agent who would limit Juan Lagares to a bench role. The Mets made a sizable financial commitment to Lagares on the eve of this past season that guarantees him $2.5 million in 2016, $4.5 million in 2017, $6.5 million in 2018 and $9 million in 2019. The hope is to add a player capable of manning center field who can complement Lagares. Mets don't want to displace Juan Lagares with outfield addition The article also includes this little gem: The Mets would have to weigh at that point whether in-house options such as Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Darrell Ceciliani may be just as attractive. OH GOD FORBID THAT THEY HAVE A STRONG BENCH!!!!! LET'S INSTEAD PURPOSELY MAKE THE TEAM WORSE THAN WHAT IS POSSIBLE SO THAT JUAN LAGARES CAN BE CODDLED!! The point is (as discussed in the other thread) that if you bring in a top FA it would be for the purpose of replacing an incumbent like Lagares not with the idea of platooning with him. No FA at or near his prime is going to sign up for a part-time job or a short-term one, and the Mets aren't going to shelve Lagares to a once a week start/PH status for the next several seasons just a year after committing to a multi-year deal to him.

Sorry, but you cannot convince me that this would be a better team with Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Darrell Ceciliani on the roster as opposed to (just as one example) a potentially healthy Denard Span. Lagares has shown potential at times, but can you tell me that he is a lock-down starter on a championship level team? And what is wrong with a solid player who can step in and start having a place on your bench (especially when the 2016 price tab is only $2.5 million)?

Perennially successful organizations think in a certain manner, and ones that are not perennially successful think another way. Ask yourself how this organization thinks and be honest.

[Mex17]

Plus, Lagares is not an "incumbent" starter anyway. The outfield at the end of the season (and the one that was in place during the late season run) was Conforto/Cespedes/Granderson.

[Edgy MD]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Does anyone understand the nuances of Desmond's struggles this year -- injury? personal turmoil? over the hill? Bad relationship with management? Because he at least once was a good+ player, albeit one who whiffs a little too much. You figure he's the kind of player some team will gamble on fixing with a good hitting coach or something.

I dunno, but he peaked in August after having a sit-down with Cal Ripken. He crashed back down in September, but so did his whole demoralized team. Heh-heh.

If the Mets wanna go really cheap, of course, it's Tejada and Flores up the middle, with Herrera, Reynolds, and Cecchini pressing from below.

[Mex17]

Edgy MD wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: Does anyone understand the nuances of Desmond's struggles this year -- injury? personal turmoil? over the hill? Bad relationship with management? Because he at least once was a good+ player, albeit one who whiffs a little too much. You figure he's the kind of player some team will gamble on fixing with a good hitting coach or something. I dunno, but he peaked in August after having a sit-down with Cal Ripken. He crashed back down in September, but so did his whole demoralized team. Heh-heh. If the Mets wanna go really cheap, of course, it's Tejada and Flores up the middle, with Herrera, Reynolds, and Cecchini pressing from below.

Middle infield is just fine with what we have.

[Frayed Knot]

OK, I'll try once more.

The Mets currently have three OFs under multi-year deals plus Conforto, which means that if they go out to sign a premier FA OF it's not going to be [u:gkoa48ri]in addition[/u:gkoa48ri] to what they already have but [u:gkoa48ri]instead of[/u:gkoa48ri] one or more of them. If you want to argue for that strategy then fine, but a top FA isn't coming here to platoon and the team isn't moving Granderson (their best offensive player this past year) nor LAGARES (a 26 y/o GG CF) to a backup/PH role. If you want to keep those guys and merely reduce their roles then it's going to be for a lesser, more platoon-type of import, not the likes of Heyward or Upton or Adam Jones.