Key Met of 2015

[Edgy MD]

I hate to name the highest-profile guy, but I think this year's key Met may be David Wright � a broad and relatively flat range of possible outcomes, high stakes in him being the number-three hitter, and little in the way of alternatives (if Wright goes down again, it's either Campbell or Flores with Tejada moving to short).

David Wright: my key Met for 2015. He's the center pole on the tent, and if that holds, the ones around the outside won't be as prone to collapse.

Any list of the keys, though, has to include Flores. Beyond them, I see Duda and Mejia.

Least key player is probably almost always the backup catcher. Sorry, Anthony. Other projected benches (Niewenberry and Campjada) share this fate. Also not a key Met: Daniel Murphy. He's got a range of outcomes stacked toward the middle, not a necessarily key part of the offense or defense, and meaningful alternatives are in place. I'd say that Colon isn't key, and Gee hardly looks to be a key if they can't find a job for him.

[Guest themetfairy]

Matt Harvey. We'll either soar with him or sink with him, but it's all about him.

[Zvon]

themetfairy wrote: Matt Harvey. We'll either soar with him or sink with him, but it's all about him.

I have to go with the good lady. If we are going anywhere in the long or short run, Harvey is key from now until the Wilpons can't afford him.

I think we should chip in and get Ed a Mets key ring

[Theoldmole]

Position player: Flores.

Pitcher: Harvey.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I say David Wright. A big bounceback from him is key. Even if Harvey doesn't throw a single pitch in 2014, the Mets still have a deep starting rotation (Colon-Niese-Wheeler-deGrom-Gee-Syndergaard-Montero-Matz) but if Wright only drives in 60 runs this year, the Mets likely won't score nearly enough runs to win many games.

I hope Harvey pitches like he did in 2013, but I'm really not expecting it at all.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I say David Wright. A big bounceback from him is key. Even if Harvey doesn't throw a single pitch in 2014, the Mets still have a deep starting rotation (Colon-Niese-Wheeler-deGrom-Gee-Syndergaard-Montero-Matz) but if Wright only drives in 60 runs this year, the Mets likely won't score nearly enough runs to win many games. I hope Harvey pitches like he did in 2013, but I'm really not expecting it at all.

I'm agreeing with you there.

I would also say a good start is particularly important for Flores -- and for Terry. Fans and media will be calling for scalps.

[Edgy MD]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I say David Wright. A big bounceback from him is key. Even if Harvey doesn't throw a single pitch in 2014, the Mets still have a deep starting rotation (Colon-Niese-Wheeler-deGrom-Gee-Syndergaard-Montero-Matz) but if Wright only drives in 60 runs this year, the Mets likely won't score nearly enough runs to win many games. I hope Harvey pitches like he did in 2013, but I'm really not expecting it at all.

Don't forget Darin Gorski!

[Lefty Specialist]

Wright.

Harvey can vanish off the face of the earth and their starting pitching will still be decent, with more waiting in the wings. But this team has to hit, and that starts with The Captain. If he's on point, everybody else in that lineup will be better.

[TransMonk]

I agree with the statements above regarding Wright...though, I'm hoping for great things out of Harvey, too.

If Wright is sub-par, the team will be too.

[seawolf17]

It's definitely Wright. I see the argument on Harvey, but you can't expect too much coming off the injury. Wright had the worst year of his career and a long contract ahead of him. He needs a big year.

[Ceetar]

I'm going Syndergaard (or really, the 4th starter guy) I'm confident in Harvey, deGrom, and Wheeler being good. I'm confident in David Wright being healed. The Mets won't be sluggers but they'll have enough offense to win a lot of games if the pitching is top-flight, and a 4th excellent pitcher does that.

[Edgy MD]

Well, that's the thing, since Syndergaard is currently the seventh starter (or possibly eighth, at this moment in time), the team has a lot of redundancy to shore up the four-hole.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: Well, that's the thing, since Syndergaard is currently the seventh starter (or possibly eighth, at this moment in time), the team has a lot of redundancy to shore up the four-hole.

I think Syndergaard is probably the best of 4-7 though. I just mean I think having an excellent 4th starter is key, and Syndergaard is the most likely to be that. But really the rotation as a whole and in particular getting plus value from 4 and 5.

[Vic Sage]

it's absurd to list a guy whose never played in the majors and is unlikely to start the season with the team to be the key to the Mets 2015 campaign, particularly at a position of our greatest depth. Syndergaard could drop dead tomorrow and our team's chances in 2015 would not change one iota. While i can understand the argument for Harvey, deGrom showed last year he can be an ace even if Harvey doesn't come back strong. Wheeler has that potential as well. Again, depth of pitching makes any particular pitcher less critical to the team's success next year.

On offense, however, we are thin and in dire need. While it would be nice if Flores develops, its not something we can count on or on which the team's success will be based. Ditto d'Arnaud. But if our #3 hitter and team captain only produces a .270/8 HR/60 rbi line again, we won't score that 1 run that even Matt Harvey needs to win. If Wright doesn't bounce back, we're cooked. If he does, we'll have just enough offense for our pitching to give us a shot. I don't know how you get any more "key" than that.

[MFS62]

Then to build on what Vic said, the key will be making sure that David sees enough good pitches to be able to produce. So my key is the batter hitting behind him, whether that is Duda or Granderson.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Matt Harvey fell from 5.5 WAR in 2013 to 0.0 in 2014, and the team improved by five games. Dwight Gooden fell from 12.1 WAR in 1985 to 4.4 in 1986, and the team improved by 10 games (and 10 games between 98 wins and 108 are a hard 10 games to take). I'd hesitate to link the outcome one way or another to the fate of any one starting pitcher at this point.

[Fman99]

Wright is the key.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Edgy MD wrote: Matt Harvey fell from 5.5 WAR in 2013 to 0.0 in 2014, and the team improved by five games. Dwight Gooden fell from 12.1 WAR in 1985 to 4.4 in 1986, and the team improved by 10 games (and the 10 games between 98 wins and 108 are a hard 10 games to take). I'd hesitate to link the outcome one way or another to the fate of any one starting pitcher at this point.

I agree. I wouldn't even bother trying to guess which non-pitcher would be the key, because the truth is that nobody really knows what's gonna happen, and when a team improves markedly, it's often someone coming out of left field* that provides the key spark.


*Though not necessarily a left-fielder.

[Frayed Knot]

Kevin Plawec-key

[MFS62]

Frayed Knot wrote: Kevin Plawec-key

Interesting.
Do you think D'Arnaud is going to turn into D'oh?

Later

[Guest d'Kong76]

Have to go with Wright. Putting the key on a pitcher who plays
every five games seems silly to me. Putting it on a pitcher who
hasn't pitched in over a year and coming off surgery is even sillier.

I'm hoping it's Cudyer, since, ya know, that's all they got for us.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

#1 is Wright, for all the reasons others have already explained.

Travvy will be a bit of a (distant-second) key, though-- he proves the second-half adjustments were actual progress, and we've got a starting catcher AND a surplus for trade in Plawecki; he doesn't, and we have neither.

[smg58]

Have to go with Wright on this one.

[Lefty Specialist]

And I would say the second most key would be Wilmer Flores. If he actually hits and his fielding is at least passable, it gives this lineup a jolt. If his fielding is horrible, it probably won't matter what he hits. So here's hoping for competence in the field and some flash with the bat.

[Ceetar]

Lefty Specialist wrote: And I would say the second most key would be Wilmer Flores. If he actually hits and his fielding is at least passable, it gives this lineup a jolt. If his fielding is horrible, it probably won't matter what he hits. So here's hoping for competence in the field and some flash with the bat.

Even if we've got no MVP candidates, Flores (or Tejada, or whoever) hitting would mean only the one black hole in the lineup which is a nice thing, especially since 145ish of our opponents have at least that same black hole.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm bullish on Flores as a hitter; I worry that stupid fans boo his presence in the lineup and get into his head, and he reacts by trying to hard in the field and THAT gets into his head, and before you know it Terry is writing Tejada's name down everyday.

Given a good start, its a very different story. Key Met for April = Wilmer Flores. Key Met May-October = David Wright.

[Edgy MD]

That's suggests an argument for keeping Tejada around. Booheads may take it easier on Flores if his backup is somebody they hate even more.

Ruben Tejada: red meat for the base.

Hopefully playing to first six games on the road gives Flores a chance to get a few knocks in and come home with some momentum.

[Ceetar]

Edgy MD wrote: That's suggests an argument for keeping Tejada around. Booheads may take it easier on Flores if his backup is somebody they hate even more. Ruben Tejada: red meat for the base. Hopefully playing to first six games on the road gives Flores a chance to get a few knocks in and come home with some momentum.

also cause, you know, Tejada is much better than just about every other possible option as a backup MI, particularly cause he's better than some options as a full time starter.

[Frayed Knot]

I'd almost prefer to have the backup for Flores be a stone cold glove man (which RT is not) and not care too much about what kind of offense you get from him.
But as backup SS go, there are a lot worse options than Ruben.

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: I'd almost prefer to have the backup for Flores be a stone cold glove man (which RT is not) and not care too much about what kind of offense you get from him. But as backup SS go, there are a lot worse options than Ruben.

yeah. Word is Tovar might be that 'glove only' guy. I think it depends though, Flores is too unproven to bank on 150 games and just roll with it, so you're gonna play your backup at least some. It's nice to have a guy that's at least going to put up not-embarrassing offensive numbers. Though I guess in a perfect world you'd like it to be a lefty.