Hot Seat Ike

[seawolf17]

Disagree. Duda's the second-best offensive weapon on this team. Maybe not much of a defender, but he's a usable piece.

[metirish]

seawolf17 wrote: Disagree. Duda's the second-best offensive weapon on this team. Maybe not much of a defender, but he's a usable piece.

I think Duda at first could be a disaster(apologies to real disasters) with the glove, especially if it happened because Davis got sent down....added pressure and all that.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Duda's gonna have a good year when it's all over. I think they're committed to sticking with him in left until or unless Ike becomes permanently unable to help through being unable to get it together here or the minors or an injury. Which could happen but not right away.

My concern with Ike as I said before is my belief that his slump has become a kind of sickness that's infected the whole team and interferes with sustaining anything. It's spooked them all.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Because he's not good enough.

but he is..so..

Anyway, Duda at first unless you're committed to that plan forever probably means Cowgill in left? The reason you don't move Duda is because there seem to be more 'hitter' types that you can play at first right now.

[Lefty Specialist]

Duda's a better answer than the other options. First, he's done it in the past, and while he's no Keith Hernandez, he wasn't as bad as many feared. We already know he's an awkward, lumbering outfielder, and that's not going to change no matter how long he's out there.

This opens up a spot in the outfield, and frankly anybody you plug in there will give you better production in the lineup than Davis. Baxter. Valdespin. Niewenhuis. A 53-year old Kevin McReynolds.

Frankly, I no longer trust Ike. He got a pass last year due to injury and illness, but neither of those is a factor this year. I think he needs a wake-up call, and the only way that can effectively be delivered is with a trip to Las Vegas. If it doesn't work, then you move on.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Just because Duda's better than any other outfielder or first baseman on the team, it doesn't mean he's good enough to be a starter on a contender, which is, I hope, still the goal.

Maybe he'll get there, but until and unless he does, I think that the Mets need to find someone better.

And yes, I did overlook Parnell. After Harvey, he's been the other bit of good news for this team.

[Vic Sage]

Why do these articles keep saying "the Mets have no one to replace him"? Do we have a top 1B prospect ready? No, but Brown and Lutz are on the 40-man, and Campbell and Satin are at AAA, too, and they're all hitting well this year. You can throw Dykstra at AA in there for good measure. These aren't young kids and they've proven to be hitters at the top minor league levels. I'd say any of them could hit better than .150 while Davis takes the time to work on his swing in Vegas.

[Ceetar]

Vic Sage wrote: Why do these articles keep saying "the Mets have no one to replace him"? Do we have a top 1B prospect ready? No, but Brown and Lutz are on the 40-man, and Campbell and Satin are at AAA, too, and they're all hitting well this year. You can throw Dykstra at AA in there for good measure. These aren't young kids and they've proven to be hitters at the top minor league levels. I'd say any of them could hit better than .150 while Davis takes the time to work on his swing in Vegas.

Because these articles have written off 2013 (which might be with good cause at this point) and are focused on the future. None of these guys are considered long-term answers or big prospects, so the idea is that Ike Davis is probably the "most talented" of the bunch and if he doesn't right himself in a convincing way you'd go elsewhere anyway.

I tend to agree with you though. Lutz is my choice due to 40 man simplicity if they choose to replace Ike.

Duda's 26th in the NL in wOBA. that's certainly good.

[seawolf17]

Josh Satin is .300/.414/.475 in Vegas. I know he's not on the 40, which complicates the issue, but I'd rather try to sneak Lutz or Cowgill through waivers and give him a shot.

Duda/Ankiel/Byrd isn't a great outfield, but it's not terrible.

[Vic Sage]

i wrote off 2013 before the season started, so i have no issue with that. I just think that Davis needs some time away, with an incentive to accept changes in his approach, if he's ever going to be anything. And it does the other young players on the team no good at all to marinate in the juice of Davis's fruitless flailing. It's depressing to all and sundry. And whether Lutz, Satin, Cambell or Brown are "the answer" at 1B has yet to be determined. Some AAAA guys just need a real shot.

[Vic Sage]

Duda/Ankiel/Byrd isn't a great outfield, but it's not terrible.

yes. yes it is.
In fact, if you looked up terrible OFs in the Encyclopedia Britannica, there they'd be.

[Edgy MD]

I think Duda in left and Duda at first and Duda alternating between left and first are all viable options depending on who you add to the lineup. If Duda was the problem, we'd be a lot better.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Lefty Specialist wrote: We already know [Duda's] an awkward, lumbering outfielder, and that's not going to change no matter how long he's out there.

I think so, too. Duda is never gonna be an adequate major league outfielder.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Boo Radley's a lot closer to adequate at first than he is in the outfield, though, right? And he's a lot closer to adequate there (with bat, at least) than our minor-league options there (although I wouldn't argue with bringing Lutz/Campbell up as a semi-platoon/PH option).

[Edgy MD]

He's probably younger than what Lee created, but if a film remake cast Duda as Boo Radley, I'd go and see it about 100 times.

[Guest Mets � Willets Point]

The real problem is that they stopped updating Ike Davis Facts.

[duan]

Baseball Prospectus (early in the season) had half a podcast devoted to Ike Davis and saying how he basically didn't seem to get that there was an issue with his overall approach. His response to his troubles was (and this was a direct quote)
"they'll (pitchers) start making some mistakes and I'll start hitting some homers"
and that he just didn't seem to even notice how he was flailing so badly.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Boo Radley! I love it! Best Mets nickname of the year!

(It's even better than "Jake Monster.")

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

Or "Boom Radley?"



Scout, I think I'm beginning to understand why he doesn't take pitches the opposite way... it's because he wants to stay inside.

[Ceetar]

duan wrote: Baseball Prospectus (early in the season) had half a podcast devoted to Ike Davis and saying how he basically didn't seem to get that there was an issue with his overall approach. His response to his troubles was (and this was a direct quote) "they'll (pitchers) start making some mistakes and I'll start hitting some homers" and that he just didn't seem to even notice how he was flailing so badly.

is that what happened? I'm not sure I'm convinced that his overall approach isn't just a symptom and not a cause. Presumably he's taking different approaches in desperation too. I wonder if he's tried just standing up there a whole game and refusing to swing and see if he can steal some walks.

[Edgy MD]

Also works with the double meaning of "Scout."

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

/Points fingergun, winks

[ashie62]

The Mets are on a pace to lose 100...If I am led to believe the rebuild is taking they can address the Ike situation be a means other than putting their heads in the sand.

More reason for me to not spend money on the Mets.

[metsmarathon]

expectorate the mets!

[duan]

Ceetar wrote: duan wrote: Baseball Prospectus (early in the season) had half a podcast devoted to Ike Davis and saying how he basically didn't seem to get that there was an issue with his overall approach. His response to his troubles was (and this was a direct quote) "they'll (pitchers) start making some mistakes and I'll start hitting some homers" and that he just didn't seem to even notice how he was flailing so badly. is that what happened? I'm not sure I'm convinced that his overall approach isn't just a symptom and not a cause. Presumably he's taking different approaches in desperation too. I wonder if he's tried just standing up there a whole game and refusing to swing and see if he can steal some walks.

But their point was, he (Ike Davis) expected
Pitcher Mistakes = Homers for Ike
and that he was fundamentally missing the point. His only expectation was to run into mistakes and deposit them over the wall. That isn't enough to be a valuable hitter.

[Frayed Knot]

That's the type of hitter that scouting reports label as someone who "can be pitched to".
IOW, make a mistake and he might hit it a mile but make smart pitches and you'll get him out most of the time. And, although I don't know if this is provable statistically, that type also gains the rep as one who'll get almost all his hits in 'lost cause' situations but rarely in meaningful spots when pitchers are bearing down.
I think I first heard that 'can be pitched to' term applied to Mike Marshall (the 1B/OF obviously not the pitcher).

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: That's the type of hitter that scouting reports label as someone who "can be pitched to". IOW, make a mistake and he might hit it a mile but make smart pitches and you'll get him out most of the time. And, although I don't know if this is provable statistically, that type also gains the rep as one who'll get almost all his hits in 'lost cause' situations but rarely in meaningful spots when pitchers are bearing down. I think I first heard that 'can be pitched to' term applied to Mike Marshall (the 1B/OF obviously not the pitcher).

Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, etc. Three True Outcome type hitters. Most big lefties seem to fit this mold, when they're sluggers anyway, because so many believe a 'solid lefty in the pen' basically neutralizes them.

I think there was hope Davis was beyond that, but perhaps he's not. I wonder if _he_ resigned himself to the idea if he'd be less slumpy. Perhaps he set himself up wrong to start this season. He clearly came in as scouted as a power hitter, so I wonder if he'd tailored his approach more like Duda (i.e. take everything you can't smash) if he'd get some of those 'scared' walks pitchers give out, especially early on when control might be a little flakier. And then if he smashes a couple he'll only get more 'scared' walks.

I dunno, just spitballing here. I always wonder (and maybe teams do) if it'd be worthwhile to set up a 'dummy scouting company' and hire people to advance scout your own team. presumably they'll see the same things other teams see, and then you can adjust according.

[Vic Sage]

the dummy scouting company is called a "coaching staff", and i'm sure they share their insights with each other and the team throughout a season.

I don't mind having a 3TO-type hitter in the lineup (you don't want a bunch of them, but 1 in the 5th-6th hole can really put pressure on a pitcher), but they have to be prodigious sluggers. 25-30hrs won't cut it. They have to give you 40+hrs and 100+ BBs; then they can be quite valuable. Much less than that, though, and they just make too many outs for too little production. And so far, that's been the deal with Ike; 25 HRs and 70 BBs aren't worth 150Ks, a .240 BA and an incredibly inconsistent bat that can disappear for MONTHS at a time. The bang isn't worth the buck. If he doesn't change his entire approach, i don't see him staying in the majors long term.

[batmagadanleadoff]

So if Ike is demoted, who's on first?

_______________________________________________



Mets� options limited to replace Davis

By MIKE PUMA
Last Updated: 4:18 AM, May 24, 2013
Posted: 2:00 AM, May 24, 2013

If the Mets had a slam dunk replacement at first base, Ike Davis might already be the mayor of Sin City. But as the Mets prepare to give the beleaguered Davis another chance � perhaps through this weekend � before deciding if a demotion to Triple-A Las Vegas is applicable, they will consider their options at the position. Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda and Justin Turner would be the in-house candidates for first base. Less likely is the possibility the club would promote Josh Satin from Las Vegas to swap places with Davis. �You can put Murphy over there at first and let [Jordany] Valdespin have a chance at second,� manager Terry Collins said. �But I don�t have any idea yet. You can put Duda over there, but if that�s the case who plays left field? You can put Turner at first and see how he does, but until [Davis� situation] is decided, I really haven�t gotten anything etched in stone yet.� Murphy saw extended action at first base in 2011 after Davis sustained a left-ankle bone bruise in May, sidelining him for the remainder of the season. Murphy also played most of the 2009 season at first base after the organization abandoned trying to convert him into an outfielder. Though moving Duda to first base would create another hole in an already weak outfield, there are some in the organization intrigued by the possibility of a switch. Such a move would let the Mets view Duda at his natural position for an extended period, allowing the organization to determine if there is a comfortability factor that can lead to him surge offensively. Duda is batting only .185 in May after a hot start and remains an eyesore in the outfield, despite his switch this season from right to left field. Team officials recently toyed with the possibility of promoting Andrew Brown from Las Vegas to play first base, but Brown strained an oblique last weekend, putting that idea on ice. Turner has received action at first base this season against lefties, but there are still questions whether he can succeed as an everyday player. He would perhaps stand to benefit if Murphy moved to first, allowing Collins to employ a platoon with Valdespin and Turner at second base. Satin entered yesterday�s play batting .300 with six homers and 24 RBIs for Las Vegas and could receive some consideration for Davis� spot. �Satin fits into their mold of taking pitches and all that kind of stuff,� said a National League talent evaluator. �He can hit big league pitching, but he�s got to play. He�s not a guy coming off the bench.� Davis is stuck in a 1-for-38 (.026) tailspin and has struggled defensively recently. His latest miscue came Wednesday, when he believed Brandon Phillips� ninth-inning chopper was foul and let the ball go. The ball was ruled fair, giving Phillips a double as the Reds scored the go-ahead run in what became a series sweep of the Mets. �I know I�m going to play better, especially hitting � I can�t do any worse,� said Davis, who is batting .147 with four homers and nine RBIs. �Everything that can wrong right now for me is going wrong.�

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/first_problem_1AKQEEnNAoBBIbjh6qV40J

[metirish]

I thought two weeks ago you couldn't do "any worse", but indeed you have, so yeah, you can do worse.