Don't trade Reyes

[Guest attgig]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Well, right now I'm hoping that the Mets sign Jose during the "Piazza Period" between the last game of the season and the day that everyone is free to negotiate with all players. That's what I'm hoping.

same here. no need to hate on him for telling the media now exactly what he told the media a few months ago. he can just repeat the same answer anytime the media asks him anything about a contract. I hope he has an awesome season though, where ownership is forced to offer him a contract. i want him to be a Met for life.

[Elster88]

...(if another team has a solid shortstop prospect, why aren't they playing him instead of trading for Reyes?). I imagine such a person would be dealt because he isn't yet believed to be ready to consistently perform in the major leagues. Especially for a team with greater expectations than the mean. The Mets believed that about Melvin Mora and gave him up for Bordick.

This thread breaks my heart in so many ways. Can we talk about Beltran's called strike three again?

[Guest Edgy DC]

"I never like to play GM, but Reyes is a good player. He's a game-changer. It's not my checkbook. I'm not making the decisions. But if I had a team, I'd pick Reyes. He's a good kid. He's got some tools. His speed - it's very important. You're going to get that everyday and that's not going to go into a slump. He plays good defense, he's got good attitude. He loves to play the game. What else can you ask for?" --- Carlos Delgado

"Speed don't slump" is a pretty solid principle and I like it, but no more so than "You can't steal first." And getting to first is a skill that can slump.

Moreover, speed may not slump, but it does get hurt and it does grow old --- earlier than other skills, typically.

[Centerfield]

I'm disappointed on so many levels.

I was hoping that Jose wasn't just giving lip service and really did want to stay here. I was hoping he'd give a hometeam discount, that he would come out and say "Hey, they put a fair offer out there, I'm ready to sign." I guess that's asking for a lot. I can't blame the guy, but I'm still disappointed.

I'm really disappointed that Sandy and company screwed the pooch on this one. The time to get this deal done was last winter. They could have locked him up for less money. Stupid.

But more than anything, I'm disappointed that this wonderful season will be tainted with thoughts that this is his last year here, and that with each hit and stolen base, he's driving up his price tag and making himself more appealing to other teams. I will be crushed if he leaves. If he signs with Philly or the MFY's, I may seriously consider taking a break from baseball.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'm actually thinking of breaking with all you guys and saying, let's just see what he brings back in a trade. If it's not the kind of thing that knocks your jocks off, then you don't have to do it, but for now we're the only team out there with a JoseJose to trade, don't think the Eggheads running this team now don't know that.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: I'm really disappointed that Sandy and company screwed the pooch on this one. The time to get this deal done was last winter. They could have locked him up for less money. Stupid.

How many here were all for signing Reyes before this season started, especially given Reyes' most recent injury issues?

[Ceetar]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Centerfield wrote: I'm really disappointed that Sandy and company screwed the pooch on this one. The time to get this deal done was last winter. They could have locked him up for less money. Stupid. How many here were all for signing Reyes before this season started, especially given Reyes' most recent injury issues?

I would've taken five of 6 years of Reyes' 2010 numbers in a heartbeat. Especially for the smaller yearly sum that he'd have gotten. I guessed he'd reach or top 20 million per if they let him play out the year.

[TransMonk]

Centerfield wrote: I'm really disappointed that Sandy and company screwed the pooch on this one. The time to get this deal done was last winter.

I disagree with this. Reyes was merely average in 2009-2010 while missing considerable time with injury. Hindsight is 20/20 and Sandy had no way of knowing that Reyes was going to blow up in this manner. He ran the risk of overpaying at a time when the team had no extra money to overpay. Also, we have no way of knowing if Jose was going to test the market even if a Mets offer was made last winter. The way I see it, both sides were better off waiting to see how 2011 was going to pan out for Jose. Reyes is sitting better off than the team right now.

If a trade is there...I'm not opposed to taking it if there is value.

[TransMonk]

I'm still of the opinion that the 2017-18 Mets have no business paying $20M/year to a 34-35 year old shortstop...no matter how good his 2011 numbers are.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think it's a pretty safe assumption that no longterm deals were going to be signed in 2010-2011. Sandy didn't have the money to playe with. He may now, but the lay of the land is different.

[Centerfield]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Centerfield wrote: I'm really disappointed that Sandy and company screwed the pooch on this one. The time to get this deal done was last winter. They could have locked him up for less money. Stupid. How many here were all for signing Reyes before this season started, especially given Reyes' most recent injury issues?

I can't say how many were, but I was.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Centerfield wrote: Centerfield wrote: I'm really disappointed that Sandy and company screwed the pooch on this one. The time to get this deal done was last winter. They could have locked him up for less money. Stupid. How many here were all for signing Reyes before this season started, especially given Reyes' most recent injury issues? I can't say how many were, but I was.

Check out the second post in the Expectations for Jose Reyes thread (bumped up for your convenience).

[MFS62]

Edgy DC wrote: "Speed don't slump" is a pretty solid principle and I like it, but no more so than "You can't steal first." And getting to first is a skill that can slump. Moreover, speed may not slump, but it does get hurt and it does grow old --- earlier than other skills, typically.

Exactly. Your Honor, I place in evidence Luis Castillo as an example of a player signed to a long term contract with a "speed game" who had few other skills to compensate when his speed eroded quickly.

Later

[Centerfield]

TransMonk wrote: I'm really disappointed that Sandy and company screwed the pooch on this one. The time to get this deal done was last winter. I disagree with this. Reyes was merely average in 2009-2010 while missing considerable time with injury. Hindsight is 20/20 and Sandy had no way of knowing that Reyes was going to blow up in this manner. He ran the risk of overpaying at a time when the team had no extra money to overpay. Also, we have no way of knowing if Jose was going to test the market even if a Mets offer was made last winter. The way I see it, both sides were better off waiting to see how 2011 was going to pan out for Jose. Reyes is sitting better off than the team right now. If a trade is there...I'm not opposed to taking it if there is value.

I don't think it's hindsight at all. I posted this back in January:

This is stupid. Sign an extension now when his value is not great. Sure, in the worst case scenario, you may dodge a bullet if he tanks this year, but barring an unmitigated disaster, there is little to gain. The scenarios as I see them are: 1. If he has a great year, you end up paying more. Lots more. 2. If he has a so-so year, you still have to bring him back (there are no other real options, within the organization, or via free agency) but then you pay more because other teams are in the mix. 3. If he has a bad year, you may be able to save some money, but you have to bank on the fact that no team will pony up the cash and gamble that he returns to form. In other words, you might save money, but you might not. 4. If he has a bad year, and suffers some sort of injury that will affect the rest of his career, you've dodged a bullet. To me, scenarios 3 and 4 are not enough to offset 1 and 2, which I feel, are more likely to happen anyway. Plus he's a home-grown player. Sandy should be talking to him right now.

[TransMonk]

I'm still with Sandy on his decision to wait (the hindsight I referred to is more his than yours).

And I still bet that Jose would have waited it out even if the Mets had made him an offer. Other than Jose saying the obligitory "I love New York. I want to play my whole career here" (what else is he supposed to say?), Jose has never given any indication that there would be a hometown discount or that he wasn't going to test the FA market.

[Ceetar]

MFS62 wrote: Edgy DC wrote: "Speed don't slump" is a pretty solid principle and I like it, but no more so than "You can't steal first." And getting to first is a skill that can slump. Moreover, speed may not slump, but it does get hurt and it does grow old --- earlier than other skills, typically. Exactly. Your Honor, I place in evidence Luis Castillo as an example of a player signed to a long term contract with a "speed game" who had few other skills to compensate when his speed eroded quickly. Later

Reyes has a few other skills to compensate. You know how Reyes smacks the ball off walls for triples, or drives it into the gap? Reyes already has 3x as many home runs as Castillo. Castillo was pretty good defensively, but Reyes is better.

Reyes is not going to stop hitting the ball well. His total bases numbers will likely come down, but probably not his XBHs. Now, he might not be worth 20 million near the end of the contract, but he won't be a liability.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Everybody's got an opinion on this topic, including this guy -- Mets should say 'no way' to Jose Reyes -- who appears on the ESPN web-site occasionally, and who , in my opinion, generates the most unreadable junk of any media member writing on the Mets. I'll take this writer over --under, really-- your Klapisches, Chass's and anybody else you might think is the media person writing the crappiest crap about the Mets. Rob Parker makes Joe Morgan sound like Bill James.

[Vic Sage]

"Speed don't slump" is a pretty solid principle and I like it

not entirely true, and, IMO, not true at all in Reyes' case.

He has historically gone into September swoons, with significant late season drops in OPS. While idiots like Fatscessa have used this as evidence that Jose isn't "clutch" (and therefore could never be a "true yankee"), all other stats indicate jose does just fine in any kind of "clutch" scenario you can conjure up. What he HAS done, though, is routinely fade in September, after each hot August. If you dismiss the absurd "clutch" argument, the explanation seems apparent: a guy like him, who thrives on speed and energy, just runs out of gas after being run into the ground in the summer heat.

"speed doesn't slump?" I think it does.

[Guest Edgy DC]

I think it's clear that Delgado, when saying

His speed - it's very important. You're going to get that everyday and that's not going to go into a slump.

is speaking of the ability to run, as opposed to the ability to hit, something that's not particularly well measured in OPS.

[Vic Sage]

why the Mets probably won't trade Reyes... so says grant brisbee. And if your name is "grant brisbee", your a sports writer that needs to be taken seriously. That name just yells "sportswriter" to me.
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/6/22/2236703/jose-reyes-new-york-mets-trade-rumors-news

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: I think it's clear that Delgado, when saying His speed - it's very important. You're going to get that everyday and that's not going to go into a slump. is speaking of the ability to run, as opposed to the ability to hit, something that's not particularly well measred in OPS.

u
It's why "he's taking his troubles out into the field" is a sign of letting the slump get to you.

[Vic Sage]

Edgy DC wrote: I think it's clear that Delgado, when saying His speed - it's very important. You're going to get that everyday and that's not going to go into a slump. is speaking of the ability to run, as opposed to the ability to hit, something that's not particularly well measured in OPS.

To the extent its the basis of Jose's game, i'd say it pretty much is measured by the sinking september OPS. Its not like Jose forgets how to hit late in the season. It's not about "ability"; its about "production". And sure, hitting and OPS can fluctuate by periodic slumps, that doesn't mean the person slumping doesn't have the ABILITY to hit. Just as, when a player whose game is entirely about his legs, loses his legs late in the season due to exhaustion, or the accumulation of niggling injury, his production is bound to slump. I really don't see the difference, or any basis for the false truism that "speed doesn't slump." It slumps just like any other skill over 6 months/162 game season.

[Guest Edgy DC]

No it doesn't. I think it's pretty clear that a guy runs much closer to his mean throughout the season than he hits.

[ashie62]

I think we be keepin Wright and Reyes be-leavin.

[Ceetar]

Ashie62 wrote: I think we be keepin Wright and Reyes be-leavin.

this would be a comment from 2017?

[Guest Rockin' Doc]

Although it's been said many times, many ways, don't trade Reyes

[Theoldmole]

And do whatever it takes to sign him.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah! At this point I'm more concerned about him departing through free agency than through a trade.

I want Jose to finish the 2011 season as a Met. And I want him to be back with the club for 2012 spring training, with a fresh new bright-and-shiny contract.

[seawolf17]

From FaFiF:

http://www.faithandfearinflushing.com/2011/06/24/robs-case-for-trading-reyes/

If the Mets were going to go balls-to-the-wall to get the guys they need to surround Reyes & Wright, then definitely sign Reyes. But you know they�re not going to do that. If they sign Reyes, that will be IT. If they sign Wright next year, that will be IT. And that leaves us with the same team we�re treading water with now, minus a few guys who are contributing, with two long-term big money deals added in.

I refuse to have that kind of defeatism.

[metirish]

I do wonder what impact it might have on Wright if the Mets don't sign Reyes, for the reasons highlighted above , he might say screw this and head for FA and go to a team that matches his ambition.