IGT 5/26/2011: NYM @ CHI -- It's Supposed to Keep Raining

[G-Fafif]

R.A. Dickey vs. PH Zambrano, precip pending.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Am I correct in recalling that, the last time Dickey pitched in the rain, it turned him into a battng practice pitcher?

[Frayed Knot]

Things ain't lookin' good


http://beta.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/USIL0225

[Ceetar]

Frayed Knot wrote: Things ain't lookin' good http://beta.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/USIL0225

I'm torn on wanting it rained out. our bullpen is already really rested (Collins said he really wanted to get Isringhausen out there yesterday), and the Cubs suck. On the other hand, makeup would have our offense better but would require another trip, unless they can do it June 6th.

[Ceetar]

two days. August 18th: Mets on way home from SD, Cubs about to start a homestand against the Brewers.

or, Sept 8th: Mets on the way back from Florida to play the Cubs, Cubs on their way to NY to play the Mets.

[TransMonk]

I imagine they'll wait out any rain thats going to fall. The forecast says the rains should stop by 4 or 5pm and then it's is supposed to be dry.

It may go later than expected, but I think they'll eventually play.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Before dozens of fans.

What a s�rie mis�rable.

[Ceetar]

TransMonk wrote: I imagine they'll wait out any rain thats going to fall. The forecast says the rains should stop by 4 or 5pm and then it's is supposed to be dry. It may go later than expected, but I think they'll eventually play.

That seems most reasonable. Mike Quade might want to come out to argue though.

[metirish]

AdamRubinESPN Terry Collins hints Fernando Martinez going down for Pagan on Friday. #mets

[TransMonk]

Jose Reyes � SS
Josh Thole � C
Carlos Beltran � RF
Jason Bay � LF
Daniel Murphy � 1B
Justin Turner � 3B
Jason Pridie � CF
Ruben Tejada � 2B
R.A. Dickey � RHP

[Guest Edgy DC]

Hasn't been shy about playign Beltran on wet grass, I tell you.

[TransMonk]

Edgy DC wrote: Before dozens of fans. What a s�rie mis�rable.

Just like playing in Montreal.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

metirish wrote: AdamRubinESPN Terry Collins hints Fernando Martinez going down for Pagan on Friday. #mets

"Keep your head down, Nicky, and avoid eye contact. They can't send you down if they don't remember you're on the roster."

[Guest Edgy DC]

That's pretty much true, but Fernando's leftiness makes him more redundant that Nick.

I'm worried that Terry in year one is already getting into Jerry's year three pattern --- burying certian guys deep on the bench because he's manageing with his back against the wall.

If you can't start Fernando in Wrigley, where can you start him?

[Ceetar]

Edgy DC wrote: That's pretty much true, but Fernando's leftiness makes him more redundant that Nick. I'm worried that Terry in year one is already getting into Jerry's year three pattern --- burying certian guys deep on the bench because he's manageing with his back against the wall. If you can't start Fernando in Wrigley, where can you start him?

I'm not sure why they brought him up. or Evans.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Tracky seemed to think Pridie could go. Also did an interesting piece on trading Rodriguez (easier than you might think). But crazy day already.

[duan]

what's the weather like now?

[Benjamin Grimm]

John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: ... Also did an interesting piece on trading Rodriguez (easier than you might think).

That was interesting. If they can trade him, they should do it, even if it hurts their chances (such as they are) for 2011. Especially if that money can go towards securing Jose Reyes.

I don't know who the "closer" would be. (Isringhausen? Beato? Buchholz?) I also don't know that it matters a whole lot, but everyone will think that it does.

[Willets Point]

How odd is it to have a three-game set in Wrigley Field with only one day game scheduled. #crankyoldman

[batmagadanleadoff]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: ... Also did an interesting piece on trading Rodriguez (easier than you might think). That was interesting. If they can trade him, they should do it, even if it hurts their chances (such as they are) for 2011. Especially if that money can go towards securing Jose Reyes. I don't know who the "closer" would be. (Isringhausen? Beato? Buchholz?) I also don't know that it matters a whole lot, but everyone will think that it does.

Francisco Rodriguez willing to waive no-trade and $17.5M option if Mets' trade partner re-signs him

[Guest Edgy DC]

Try this:

If trading Rodriguez is about freeing up money to sign Reyes...
...and if freeing up money to sign Reyes means they get to keep him for the last two months of the season, whether they sign him during the season or not...
...and if the difference between Reyes and the shortstop who replaces him is greater than the difference between the pen with Rodriguez and the pen without, for whatever period remains after trading him...
...then trading Rodriguez doesn't diminish the Mets chances of winning this year.

Thus begins our culture of innovation.

[batmagadanleadoff]

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Benjamin Grimm wrote: John Cougar Lunchbucket wrote: ... Also did an interesting piece on trading Rodriguez (easier than you might think). That was interesting. If they can trade him, they should do it, even if it hurts their chances (such as they are) for 2011. Especially if that money can go towards securing Jose Reyes. I don't know who the "closer" would be. (Isringhausen? Beato? Buchholz?) I also don't know that it matters a whole lot, but everyone will think that it does. Francisco Rodriguez willing to waive no-trade and $17.5M option if Mets' trade partner re-signs him

The reason that K-Rod is willing to waive his $17.5M option, I believe, is because once he gets past all the bluster and all the posturing and tough-talk and the veiled threats that his agent and the Players Union are making about enforcing his option and filing a grievance if it should come to that ---team K-Rod must know that any intelligent team should be able to purposely prevent K-Rod's option from vesting easily, and without difficulty or consequences. On the other hand, it's the Mets we're talking about here -- the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

[metsmarathon]

frankie rodriguez has been excellent this year. in 23 innings, he's allowed all of two runs (though there could be inherited runners he's allowed to score). per fangraphs, he has been worth 0.6 wins above replacement.

jose reyes has also been excellent this year. in fact, according to fangraphs, he's our best player, and is worth 2.5 wins above replacement.

prorating these performances over an entire season, and assuming that these performance levels are maintained throughout the season, we have frankie at 2.0 wins above replacement and jose at 8.4 wins above replacement.

so, in order for trading frankie to keep jose to work our poorly for the mets, presuming the mets are able to keep only one, the mets would have to replace him with a reliever or group of relievers who are collectively worth -1.9 wins per 48 games, or -6.4 wins over the course of an entire season.

alternatively, the only way that trading jose reyes makes the mets a better team this year is if they replace him with a 6.4 win shortstop.

by the way. jose reyes is the best shortstop in the majors this year with his 2.5 WAR, leading alexei ramirez and asrubal cabrera at 2.0 WAR. last year, the top shortstop was troy tulowitzki, at 6.6 WAR. yes, the gap between jose playing like he is for a full year and frankie pitching the way he is for a full year, is a smidge less than troy tulowitzki.

if it comes down to choosing between the two players, is it even a choice? i mean, damn.

last year, about 100 pitchers were worth at least 2 WAR, including kyle davies, paul maholm, and barry zito, and 144 batters, including jeff keppinger, jorge posada, and derrek lee.

thus far this season, torii hunter, chipper jones and aaron rowand are all 0.6 WAR players. thus far this season, jon niese and jeremy guthrie are 0.6 WAR pitchers.

that is how much frankie rodriguez is worth. i think we can get much more in return than a chipper jones '11, or a barry zito '10.

i don't think we're trading reyes for a '10 tulo.

[Ceetar]

Well, I think some depends on the pen. While you're theoretically replacing Frankie with Beato or likely Izzy if he's still got his arm on, you're actually taking 20 or so innings that he would've pitched, and given them to someone like Igarashi who'd be promoted to take the spot on the roster. Those innings wouldn't be in the 9th, but would they necessarily be lower leverage?

As with most things, I'm okay with that idea if they reassign his money to something valuable like Reyes. If they turn around and sign some B closer for 65-70% of the effectiveness of K-Rod, I'd just as soon the Mets try to extend Frankie themselves. If they kept him at his current rate, the difference actually ends up being what Reyes would likely get as a raise.

There are a lot of facets to this though. Trading him is actually better than avoiding the vest, as they save the $3.5 million buy out. The Mets bullpen has been pretty damn good lately, and while you probably don't lose much having Izzy close, the overall depth of the bullpen does decrease, and if you had to pick the 'weakest' part of the Mets as a whole, it just might be the rotation. But if you have confidence in the bullpen, you can have a quicker hook on the starters. Then again, maybe the Mets acquire someone, Pelfrey and Niese pitch like they do at their heights last year, and Santana returns and the starters actually look better.

Very complicated decision for Alderson, and there isn't an obvious 'right answer' as it all depends on the package in return, how they're going to use their money, and hte payroll next year.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

I'll take Jeremy Guthrie for Rodriguez, is that what you're asking?

(PS, maybe this discussion oughta be separated from the game thread)

[TransMonk]

First pitch now scheduled for 2:50 ET...the tarp is just coming off now.

[metirish]

I really think everything is going to work out now , K-Rod will be back , in fact he'll waive the clause and sign a longer deal to say a Mets player ,news on Reyes extension should be coming soon...


stop being Debbie Downers guys.

[seawolf17]

Fodriguez and Beltran to the Yankees for Granderson ($10 million in 2012) and either Betances or Banuelos.

[Ceetar]

seawolf17 wrote: Fodriguez and Beltran to the Yankees for Granderson ($10 million in 2012) and either Betances or Banuelos.

eh. I don't really trust Granderson. How about Cano instead?

[Guest Edgy DC]

Boo! Trade talk in the IGT! Booooooo!