Predict the Mets, 2010

[bmfc1]

[u:2kxs1hgv]Just the Mets:[/u:2kxs1hgv]

1. Where they will finish in the NL East
2. What the final record will be
3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so
4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go?

[bmfc1]

3d place
81-81
No playoffs

[metirish]

2nd place
88-74
playoffs via WC
World Series Champs(sorry , couldn't help myself)

[Guest attgig]

1. Where they will finish in the NL East
tied 2nd
2. What the final record will be
85-77
3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so
no
4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go?
lose one game playoff against marlins.

we'll see...

[Fman99]

1st place
124-38
NL East Champs
Win 11 straight playoff games, sweep MFYs to win it all

[Benjamin Grimm]

1. Where they will finish in the NL East THIRD PLACE
2. What the final record will be 83-79
3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so NO
4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go? NOWHERE

[seawolf17]

Fman stole my thunder, so I'll be more realistic.

1st place
92-70
NL East Champs
NLCS Champs over the Rockies
WS Champs over Boston

[Gwreck]

I always do these things with my heart and not my head.

91-69
1st place
Defeat Colorado in NLCS
Defeat Tampa in WS.

[TransMonk]

2nd place
88-74
Wild card
Lose in NLCS

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

3rd Place
84-78
No playoffs, but hey-- meaningful games in September!

[nymr83]

bmfc1 wrote: Just the Mets: 1. Where they will finish in the NL East 2. What the final record will be 3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so 4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go?

3rd in the NL East
80-82

[Guest Edgy DC]

Just the Mets:

1. Where they will finish in the NL East
First.

2. What the final record will be

107-55

3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so
Nyet.

4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go?
Disneyworld.

[Ceetar]

First Place.

92-70.

division, not wild card.

#3

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

1st, 91-71, div, DS, CS, WS...

[ashie62]

bmfc1 wrote: Just the Mets: 1. Where they will finish in the NL East 2. What the final record will be 3. If you predict a wild card spot, say so 4. If you predict a playoff appearance, how far will they go?

1st
93-69
Division Winner
WS over MFY's

[Mex17]

Sorry, fellas. . .

72-90
4th place
Bob Melvin is the manager by around Memorial Day.
Omar is out after the season ends (but maybe before. . .hopefully if they do this they actually conduct a comprehensive search for a new guy and not just promote Ricco as a matter of course).

But then it gets better I think. . .

[Benjamin Grimm]

I can't reconcile Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez with 90-plus wins.

If those three pitch the way I expect them to pitch, I don't think the Mets will have enough offense to overcome the poor rotation.

If they surprise me (and I hope they do) then maybe a playoff run will be in store. But at this point I don't see it happening.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Keep telling yourself that pitching is ephemeral, that the likelihood of them all doing well this year is not that different than the likelihood of them all doing poorly last year, and that other pitchers are in the mix and coming along. One of the big traps --- particularly with pitching --- is the notion that all the pieces have to be in place on April first. Into every season, a little Ed Lynch must fall.

[G-Fafif]

In the neighborhood of 78-84, 4th place ... unless they do a lot better, in which case I can't wait to recall what a wrongly pessimistic mope I was on a rainy Monday morning in late March.

Sharing season preview thoughts, along with a few other fine bloggers, on the NY Times Bats blog here.

[metirish]

I look at the Phillies five and there are some question marks too.

1. R. Halladay - 2009 - (Toronto) - 17 - 10 - 2.79 ERA - IP - 239
2. C. Hamels - 2009 - 10-11 - 4.32 ERA - IP - 193.2
3. J. Blanton - 2009 - 12 - 8 - 4.05 ERA - IP - 195.1
4. J. Happ - 2009 - 12 - 4 - 2.93 ERA - IP - 166
5. J. Moyer - 2009 - 12 - 10 - 4.9 ERA - IP - 162
6. K. Kendrick - 2009 - 3 - - 3.42 ERA - IP - 26.1


I list the innings pitched because this seems to have become a biggish deal in the media regarding the Mets , some are saying that this team needs to get 800+ innings for the starting rotation, actually I think that's from the top four.

Going from 1 through 4 on the Phillies depth chart they combined last season for 793 innings , obviously Halladay was in the AL where he wouldn't get pulled as much as he might now, add Moyer to that and they combined for 955 innings.

With Pelfrey and Perez I see two guys that can throw a hundred pitches in 5 plus innings and then they are done. I just don't see this bunch pitching 800 innings this season.

[Frayed Knot]

I don't predict the Mets, I expect the Mets.

[Gwreck]

G-Fafif wrote: Sharing season preview thoughts, along with a few other fine bloggers, on the NY Times Bats blog here.

Good stuff there. I think it is unfair, however, to claim that you want Jason Bay's past seven seasons back and that he "shouldn't have been traded for Steve Reed."

[Guest Edgy DC]

Yes, it would have been far better if we traded him for Jason Middlebrook.

[G-Fafif]

Gwreck wrote: G-Fafif wrote: Sharing season preview thoughts, along with a few other fine bloggers, on the NY Times Bats blog here. Good stuff there. I think it is unfair, however, to claim that you want Jason Bay's past seven seasons back and that he "shouldn't have been traded for Steve Reed."

I'll also take Nolan Ryan, 1972-1993.

[Gwreck]

That's all fine and good but the truth is that the Bay trade was not something that could be obviously identified at the time as a bad trade.

[Benjamin Grimm]

metirish wrote: I list the innings pitched because this seems to have become a biggish deal in the media regarding the Mets , some are saying that this team needs to get 800+ innings for the starting rotation, actually I think that's from the top four.

Getting 800 innings from four guys is pretty much a relic from the past. The Mets have only had that happen twice in the last 20 seasons. (In 2000, Hampton, Leiter, Rusch, and Reed combined for 800.1. Prior to that, it hadn't happened since 1990, with Viola, Gooden, Cone, and Fernandez totaling 873.1.

It would be great if they could do it this year, but I don't think it's a prerequisite for winning.

[Chad ochoseis]

Fafif wrote: The Mets� four returning starters have rarely given us seven full innings; last year none of them averaged six innings per start.

Not even Johan averaged six innings per start last year? Wow.

The pre-pinched nerve version of Maine always struck me as durable, too. In any event, as Grimm notes, durability isn't a quality you see much from anyone's pitching staff anymore.

Back to predictions - more than most years, this is one that could wind up anywhere on the map. Pelfrey, Perez, and Maine have all shown at times that they have the potential to be quality pitchers. If all three of them pitch well and Wright reverts to something close to form and Reyes' hamstring stays untweaked and Francoeur takes the occasional pitch and Beltran comes back at 100% and Murphy can hit somewhere above the Mientkiewicz line, the Mets can win 95 games.

That's a lot of ands. I'm not betting on all that happening, as much as I'd like to see it.

79-83 and 4th place is my guess.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Part of it is that managers --- and Manuel is a good example but he's hardly alone --- are so obsessed with getting a foolproof bullpen formula down that they are reluctant to resist going to the bullpen even when they don't need to.

Just once, I'd like it to be:

Devil on one shoulder: "Our guy made it through six and we have a three-run lead. We can go to our pen and shut them down."

Angel on the other shoulder: "Fuck our pen. This guy is shutting them down and he's only thrown 81 pitches."

Devil: "But we've been working so hard on getting the formula down."

Angel: "This ISN'T ABOUT US!"

[HahnSolo]

3rd place
78-84
No playoffs

[G-Fafif]

Gwreck wrote: That's all fine and good but the truth is that the Bay trade was not something that could be obviously identified at the time as a bad trade.

Apparently you never read my July 31, 2002 piece on Unprovable Hindsight.com.

Mark my words. This trade of Jason Bay will look very bad in a couple of years. Sure he's a non-prospect who's gotten no discernible attention this season, but I suddenly have a very strong feeling about his future. He'll probably win the Rookie of the Year award by 2004, become a multi-time All-Star and become a big deal for some contending club. If the Mets ever want him again, they'll have to pony up major bucks. And by then, Shea will be gone and there's no telling how the dimensions of their new park -- which will probably be named for a bank that will be in some trouble when a financial meltdown hits our country around 2008 -- will affect his game. Oh well, at least we know for sure that Robbie Alomar is going to snap out of his doldrums soon. The Wild Card is ours!

So unprovable hindsight isn't everything.