World Series Thread - MFY's vs. Phils

[Centerfield]

It's inevitable. I hate baseball.

[Benjamin Grimm]

We do seem to be careening towards this unhappy matchup.

I'm looking into getting a sensory deprivation tank for the duration of the World Series and its immediate aftermath.

We've gotten to a point where the Mets need to win the World Series in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to make up for the shit we've had to endure.

[Guest Edgy DC]

Should this happen --- and I'm not banking that it will; worms turn and other shoes drop --- I will root for the Phillies as if my son was on the team.

[metirish]

I'll happily root for the Phillies if this is the match-up , and like CF I think it's inevitable . The Phillies have the pitching and the offence to beat the MFY's .

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

You guys have to get over your resentment of the Phils, tip your hat to them for being excellent opponents, recognize they have an excellent chance to end the MFY season in disgrace and join the good fight for the honor of the National League.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't resent the Phillies, I just don't like being surrounded by their fans, and I'd like those fans to be silenced as soon as possible. (I feel the same way about the Eagles, and I don't give a damn about the NFL at all.)

I never hated the Braves, and I wouldn't have any problem with the Phillies either if I didn't live in the Philadelphia market. In my case, anyway, phamiliarity has bred contempt.

[TransMonk]

Phuck the Phils. Fuck the Yanks.

I have no problem going Randy Newman for a few weeks.

[MFS62]

Should this happen --- and I'm not banking that it will; worms turn and other shoes drop --- I will root for the Phillies as if my son was on the team.[/quote:fwfj45g6]
I wasn't going to cross this bridge until I came to it. But since the topic was opened, I agree with Edgy.

The Phillies. The Braves. The Pirates. The Cardinals. The Cubs.

Depends on the year, and the Mets' rivals change with the winds.

But the Yankees...

The Yankees loom there always. Constant as the North Star. It isn't even a glimmer of a thought of a whim that I could ever root for the Yankees. Maybe it is just me, but the thought of the Yankees losing is the second best thing to the Mets winning. It is childish, immature, and very satisfying. I would buy a Phillies hat for my five year old grandson before I would let him see me root for the Yankees.

To the Yankees and their fans, Khan said it best, "To the last I will grapple with thee. From hell's heart I stab at thee. For hate's sake, I spit my last breath at thee."

Later

[stevejrogers]

To the Yankees and their fans, Khan said it best, "To the last I will grapple with thee. From hell's heart I stab at thee. For hate's sake, I spit my last breath at thee."
[/quote:30yjv5l2]

I believe Captain Ahab said it first though...

Or I've been reading way too much into The Wrath of Khan's, and subsequent Trek film's, Moby Dick themes.

[metsmarathon]

i'm hoping for seven ugly, embarrassing games that neither team nor fan can hold their head up high about winning.

[Guest LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr]

i'm hoping for seven ugly, embarrassing games that neither team nor fan can hold their head up high about winning.[/quote:2p3xx1j8]

Rest assured, SOMEONE will hold his head up high about winning those theoretical games. (Judging from the Facebook messages/emails/text messages I've gotten after various gift wins for both teams... folks will LOUDLY hold up said head.)

I'm thinking this might achieve the desired result: a hard-fought series, after which the MVP, during his postgame interview by Ken Rosenthal, accidentally lets a gigantic, meaning-can't-be-missed racial/anti-Semitic/homophobic slur, leaving everyone feeling shocked and awkward.

[willpie]

I'll be rooting for the Phils. Not thrilled about it or anything, but it's that or punch the next person who says the NL is clearly the inferior league.

[Guest holychicken]

This poses a huge personal dilemma for me if, god forbid, it were to come to fruition. One of my best friends from HS and I have always bonded over our identical rooting interests: Mets, Giants, Rangers, Knicks. He is also very open about his rooting interests. Being in Philly, he has learned to hate the Philly teams because of all of the abuse he has taken from rival fans (pretty much across the board).

I will be rooting for the Phils to whup on the Yanks. He will be rooting for the opposite. I am not sure our friendship can withstand such stress.

[Frayed Knot]

I'll be rooting for the Phils. Not thrilled about it or anything, but it's that or punch the next person who says the NL is clearly the inferior league.[/quote:3irhzcmw]

The NL clearly is the inferior league right now although the results of the World Series (or the AS game) has nothing to do with it and won't prove anything one way or the other. Like most things, the larger sample size tells the story and the AL has been getting the better of the in-season inter-league matchups for the last five years now - winning about 55% or so of the time (and in some years over 60%) essentially making it similar to the difference between an upper-80s win team and one winning in the low-mid 70s

Which doesn't mean some fans and mediots aren't going way overboard with the idea by both exaggerating the differences* and acting as if this is a gap that's always been there even though from the start of IL games in '97 until about '04 the outcome were near even with an actual slight edge to the NL. And, since these things are usually cyclical, it isn't likely to remain this way either. S



* examples of stupidity include:
- it's like the difference between the minors and majors
- a pitcher moving from the AL to the NL will drop his ERA by like a run and a half

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Youse guys all pooh-pooh my theory, but the fact is there are 50 players in the NL who by definition would be minor leaguers if all magically transferred to the AL. And the NL was dominant in the era when the AL had the extra teams.

In other words, this is all the Milwaukee Brewers' fault.

[metirish]

The 50 players are?

Tatis
Murphy
Sullivan
Misch
Parnell



Nationals
Elijah Dukes
Josh Willingham
Jorge Padilla

A bunch of pitchers from the Nats

who else?

[Frayed Knot]

They wouldn't "by definition" be minor league players if transfered to the AL because it's not like those players were only picked for MLB jobs after the 28 teams had already filled out their rosters.
The two leagues are taking their players from the same pool of talent, not separate ones, and would share in the take if two NL clubs were to suddenly disappear and their talent be dispersed throughout MLB.

[metirish]

Ahh, I totally mis-read Dickshots post......never mind me.

[ashie62]

JCL & Frayed Knot make cogent arguments but it seems only one can be right

Damned if I know...But there are 50 pieces of crap in the NL, many in Flushing

[Benjamin Grimm]

I'm sure that there are plenty of below-average players in the American League too.

I have no idea why the AL currently seems to be stronger, but I can't see how the number of teams in the league would have anything to do with it.

Are there more big-spending teams in the AL? Is a high-priced free agent more likely to find an American League suitor?

The National League, with more teams, gets more draft picks in each round, so they should be getting more of the good young players, but draft picks are always iffy, and players don't always reach the majors with the team that drafted them, and even if they do, there's no guarantee that they'll remain with that team for long.

[Frayed Knot]

I think the arm$ race in recent years between the Yanx & Sawx may have something to do with it with those two setting a standard and the rest trying their best to keep up. But mostly I think it's just something that's cyclical, but neither a long-lasting trend nor a huge difference that should be expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

[metsmarathon]

the DH is responsible, to my thinking.

when an NL and an AL team play each other, and the DH rule is in effect, the AL's DH has a distinct advantage over the NL's DH. an AL DH is typically a better hitter than the 8th best fielder, whereas the NL's DH is typically the first guy off the bench.

without the DH, i guess the NL's pitchers are more accostomed to batting, somewhat, but i don't htink that's much of an increase in ability that we're talking about.

i do wonder, having said that... what is the NL's winning percentage in home IL games versus away IL games, and how does that compare to the typically observed homefield advantage?

i also wonder what the batting averages of NL pitchers looks like as a whole as compared to that of hte AL pitchers.

[Chad ochoseis]

Derek Jeter makes the league around him better.

[Frayed Knot]

The problem with the DH theory is that for the first 7 or so years of IL play it didn't seem to show up, same with all those years of the 70s & 80s when, just by fan consensus, many considered the NL to be the better league.
The DH had long made the AL a better hitting league but that's not the same thing as being tops overall.

Derek Jeter makes the league around him better.

Well everybody know that.

[metsmarathon]

that's a good point. i guess the counter argument is that it took the AL a while to figure out collectively how to best take advantage of that extra hitter spot in terms of building a team.

of course, i then went ahead and looked at the data behind my one argument. and, while i admit it's kindof flawed, it is still rather interesting...

i looked at what AL pitchers do versus NL pitchers, and at what AL DH's do versus NL DH's.

AL pitchers turned in the following line over 278 at bats in 544 games played:
0.094 / 0.125 / 0.129 A/O*/S
22 singles, 4 doubles, 2 homers, 10 walks, 20 runs scored, and 12 runs driven in, with 125 strikeouts

NL pitchers turned in teh following line,
0.138 / 0.176 / 0.177 A/O*/S
which scaled down to 278 at bats gives us:
31 singles, 6 doubles, 1 homer, 13 walks, 16 runs scored, 15 runs driven in, with 108 strikeouts.

for NL DH's, we get the following line in 438 at bats,
0.283 / 0.360 / 0.473 A/O*/S
79 singles, 26 doubles, 19 homers, 53 walks, 54 runs scored, 64 runs driven in, with 89 strikeouts.

for AL DH's, we get the following line:
0.256 / 0.335 / 0.444 A/O*/S
which scaled down to 438 at bats gives us:
70 singles, 22 doubles, 1 triple, 20 homers, 52 walks, 62 runs scored, 67 runs driven in, with 99 strikeouts.

so... i guess... the NL should be getting the distinct advantage here. what the hell was i talking about?! though, the effect of the DH on an NL team is often that a superior offensive player "gets the day off" and plays DH, whereas a lesser offensive player takes his place. so maybe that's the difference. don't even begin to think that i'm about to tackle the answer to that question though!



*i treat OBP as (H+BB)/(AB+BB) realizing that there's more that goes into the calculation. its just that those data are typically not on the first page of stats that one finds on web sites, and its not worth finding the SF's and SH's etc that factor into the rest of the equation. their influence is far smaller than hits, walks, and at bats.

[Guest Edgy DC]

though, the effect of the DH on an NL team is often that a superior offensive player "gets the day off" and plays DH, whereas a lesser offensive player takes his place.[/quote:1ptivgt2]
Important point.

[soupcan]

We've gotten to a point where the Mets need to win the World Series in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to make up for the shit we've had to endure.

[Frayed Knot]

Back to the original topic of discussion, the two LA teams came within one out of crapping all over the pessimistic predetermination theme of this thread.
As it is they half made things more interesting and count me among those who'll have no reservations pulling for the NL side if this is indeed the final match-up so I consider last night's outcome to be the better half of what could have been. MFY fans were already talking about the possibility - the probability in some cases - of an 11-game clean sweep to the crown.

[metsmarathon]

though, the effect of the DH on an NL team is often that a superior offensive player "gets the day off" and plays DH, whereas a lesser offensive player takes his place.[/quote:fqqtoc5q]
Important point.[/quote:fqqtoc5q]

and now i've caught myself trying to figure out how to figure it out. curse me! would the best approach be to look at who filled in for that player?

well... i looked at who the NL team's DH was, and what his regular position is - all i did was click his name, and the position that comes up on ESPN is the one i chose - and compiled the stats of the guy playing there.

so when beltran was our DH, and jeremy reed played CF, i looked at his stats in those games. when sheff was the DH, i'd look to see that fartinez played left in those games, and took his stats.

what i found is that the player who fills in for the NL DH's regular position, gave us a line of 0.234 / 0.278 / 0.369 A/O*/S
in 461 at bats, he compiled 108 base hits, for 170 total bases, with 28 walks, 102 strikeouts, 50 runs scored, and 43 runs driven in.

though the NL's DH seems to outperform the AL's DH, because the NL is often using the DH as a rest spot for a better hitter, an inferior hitter takes his place in the field. that player might often be on teh roster more for his glove than his bat. as a result, the batter that is inserted into the lineup is far worse than the AL's DH than the NL's DH is better than the AL's.

does that last sentence make sense?

NL DH's replacement OPS is 0.647
AL DH OPS is 0.779
NL DH OPS is 0.833

i think when you consider the advantage the NL's pitchers have over the AL's, the overall effect might average out, though.

[metsmarathon]

yeah, i think i'd be rooting for the phillies to come out on top... NL East uber alles!