What went wrong in 2025

[Centerfield]

I'm guessing we'll have a lot to say about this. And obviously the pitching was atrocious. But some intangibles from this year that are just maddening.

**The Mets are 0-67 when trailing after 8 innings this year. They are the only team in MLB without a 9th inning comeback. League average is 3.35 wins. In 2024, they had 8 such wins. On the flip side, the Mets have lost 3 games in 2025 when leading after 8 innings.

**The Mets are 2-13 in their last 15 one run games. They are 5-13 in one run games in the second half.

**On three separate occasions, the Mets were batting with the bases loaded, one out, chance to walkoff the win. On May 23 against LA, Luis Torrens grounded into a DP. On Aug. 4 against Cleveland, Pete Alonso struck out. On September 21 against Washington, Brandon Nimmo struck out. The Mets lost all three of those games.

**There have been 27 losing streaks in 2025 of 7 games or more. Other than the Mets, the only teams over .500 on this list are the Guardians, Rangers and Dodgers, who each appear one time. The Mets are on this list three times, with losing streaks of 7, 7 and 8 games.

The bad part. I don't know how you fix any of these things.

[MFS62]

SNY's take on the 3 biggest reason the Mets are in their current situation:

https://sny.tv/articles/reasons-mets-fighting-playoffs-september-2025

the reasons:

The rotation was a question mark, and then it crumbled

An offense that has been too inconsistent

Not enough proactivity in July

and IMO the article seems to focus on the front office as the cause.

Later

[metirish]

The starting pitching was probably always a question mark, but those injuries to Manaea and Montas really put pressure on, seems like the pen was put to work early and often , hard for me to fault Holmes a whole lot , this team just didn't seem to click

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Newsday had a headline, "Who is to blame for the Mets' Collapse" but it ended up to be clickbait.

It listed the culprits in descending order:

3) Carlos Mendoza

2) David Sterns

1) The players

Way to go out on a limb there, guys.

I think this is going to turn out to be the transition season that last year was supposed to be.

[smg58]

#1 is their pitching philosophy, which produces short-term positive results that can't be sustained. Even Peterson's ERA is above 4 now, when it was 2.83 after his August 1 start. I would not trust the continued development of McLean, Sproat, or Tong to Jeremy Hefner, or anybody who thinks like him.

[smg58]

**The Mets are 0-67 when trailing after 8 innings this year. They are the only team in MLB without a 9th inning comeback. League average is 3.35 wins. In 2024, they had 8 such wins. On the flip side, the Mets have lost 3 games in 2025 when leading after 8 innings.

 

That looks a lot like a statistical fluke to me. If our comebacks were split 4/4 over the last two years, this season looks salvageable and last year would not have been. There's a limit to how much you can fix the intangibles, you either get them or you don't. But I think we were all hoping and expecting this year's team wouldn't need any luck to cruise into the playoffs, and it certainly looked that way at the beginning of June.

[roger_that]

Yes, "statistical fluke" = run of horrendous luck.

The good news is that you don't fix it. It fixes itself.

After you've fired the wrong scapegoats, of course.

[Centerfield]

#1 is their pitching philosophy, which produces short-term positive results that can't be sustained. Even Peterson's ERA is above 4 now, when it was 2.83 after his August 1 start. I would not trust the continued development of McLean, Sproat, or Tong to Jeremy Hefner, or anybody who thinks like him.

 

Can you be more specific? I have my own thoughts about the Hefner philosophy. But curious to hear yours.

[Frayed Knot]

I always thought the Hefner philosophy was based around wearing silk pajamas 24/7, but I could be wrong.

[smg58]

Hefner's philosophy seems to be modeled on the Rays' approach. While the Rays have had some success, they also run through pitchers like my dogs run through toys. They had a season a couple of years ago where they entered June looking like they were in the middle of a historically good season -- then their pitching collapsed in a bloody heap, they limped into the playoffs, and went away quietly. The Rays' approach is designed to maximize bang for the buck on a team that has no bucks to spend, and is not a model a big-budget team should be trying to emulate. Nor is it a model that should be applied to genuinely valuable pitchers (like, say, Jake deGrom); the risk more than negates the reward. But it's not clear what the best philosophy is. The Phillies have had the most consistent success with their rotation recently, but even they lost Wheeler.

[roger_that]

#1 is their pitching philosophy, which produces short-term positive results that can't be sustained. Even Peterson's ERA is above 4 now, when it was 2.83 after his August 1 start. I would not trust the continued development of McLean, Sproat, or Tong to Jeremy Hefner, or anybody who thinks like him.

 

Can you be more specific? I have my own thoughts about the Hefner philosophy. But curious to hear yours.

 

This is a vote for distinguishing Hefner policies, from Mendoza ones, from Stearns' ones, from Cohen ones. All are interconnected, of course, but when we're talking about the need to fire one of them, and not others, I think it's useful to know precisely why you think he thinks in a certain way that others don't. Is there a part of Hefner's thinking, for example, that you believe Mendoza's going along with unenthusiastically?

[metirish]

Hefner was lauded over the last few seasons, did Stearns help him this season?

[roger_that]

The Rays' approach is designed to maximize bang for the buck on a team that has no bucks to spend, and is not a model a big-budget team should be trying to emulate.

 

This seems more like a Stevie Cohen problem than a Jeremy Hefner one, and since Cohen is unfireable, a David Stearns problem. All Hefner can do is use the guys Stearns gives Mendoza. Do you really think Hefner's the driving force in deciding which pitchers to sign and which ones not?

[metsmarathon]

This is really the first time the pitching plan collapsed so spectacularly. Is it bad luck or bad design, at least as far as hefners influence matters?

I think the biggest problem is and has often been a ack of a situational hitting approach. Too often players swinging for the downs (and missing) when contact will do.

That would tend to explain much of our performance in close and late games. Fix that, and you fix a lot.

[smg58]

The Rays' approach is designed to maximize bang for the buck on a team that has no bucks to spend, and is not a model a big-budget team should be trying to emulate.

 

This seems more like a Stevie Cohen problem than a Jeremy Hefner one, and since Cohen is unfireable, a David Stearns problem. All Hefner can do is use the guys Stearns gives Mendoza. Do you really think Hefner's the driving force in deciding which pitchers to sign and which ones not?

 

Hefner was brought in (several years before Stearns) to execute a philosophy, but I think the philosophy needs to be changed. Cohen is definitely unfireable, but I hope realizes that the system we have is broken and needs fixing. As for Stearns, you have to ask yourself what decisions looked good at the time but backfired because of injury or unforeseeable implosions, and what decisions didn't look good in the first place.

Edited September 24, 2025 by smg58

[Benjamin Grimm]

It looks like Griffin Canning was a good find, but unfortunately he got hurt early. Turning Clay Holmes into a starter could have gone better, but it wasn't a disaster. He's pitched well (3.69 ERA in 158.2 innings) but he makes too many early exits. Trading for Helsley looked good but turned out poorly.

Jose Quintana has made 24 starts, with a 3.96 ERA in 131.2 innings. Luis Severino 28 starts, 4.72 ERA, 156.1 innings. Either one of them would have been better than Frankie Montas.

[smg58]

Holmes has at least been steady, and we could use a lot more steady right now.

[Centerfield]

I was kinda wondering about the Hefner philosophy on pitching specifically, rather than the small market/big market decisions.

I get the feeling Hefner stresses two things:

1. Throwing your most effective pitches, and abandoning or reducing your usage of your lesser effective pitches.

2. Starting your pitches in the zone to entice hitters to chase.

I don't actually know if this is his philosophy, but this is what I deduce from the results on the field.

Throwing your most effective pitches sounds like a good philosophy. But it makes you predictable, and maybe that pitch mix is what made the effective pitches effective in the first place.

As for chasing, I feel like Peterson's words were telling yesterday. "I threw some good pitches, they didn't chase". I think the book is out on Mets pitchers. Lay off the borderline pitches early, and they will fall behind. It's happened to Peterson, Senga, and was happening to Canning before he got hurt. It's happened to a lesser extent, to Holmes. And that's why his pitch counts run high. I think Holmes has been saved by having actually better stuff that he can throw in the strikezone to get outs.

[Fman99]

I think the biggest problem is and has often been a ack of a situational hitting approach. Too often players swinging for the downs (and missing) when contact will do.

That would tend to explain much of our performance in close and late games. Fix that, and you fix a lot.

 

I have thought this repeatedly for the past few years. Stop trying to hit a nine run home run every at bat.

[roger_that]

I was kinda wondering about the Hefner philosophy on pitching specifically, rather than the small market/big market decisions.

I get the feeling Hefner stresses two things:

1. Throwing your most effective pitches, and abandoning or reducing your usage of your lesser effective pitches.

2. Starting your pitches in the zone to entice hitters to chase.

I don't actually know if this is his philosophy, but this is what I deduce from the results on the field.

Throwing your most effective pitches sounds like a good philosophy. But it makes you predictable, and maybe that pitch mix is what made the effective pitches effective in the first place.

As for chasing, I feel like Peterson's words were telling yesterday. "I threw some good pitches, they didn't chase". I think the book is out on Mets pitchers. Lay off the borderline pitches early, and they will fall behind. It's happened to Peterson, Senga, and was happening to Canning before he got hurt. It's happened to a lesser extent, to Holmes. And that's why his pitch counts run high. I think Holmes has been saved by having actually better stuff that he can throw in the strikezone to get outs.

The part I find fault with is if Hefner (or any pitching coach on any team) gives pitchers permission to nibble with a lead. As far as I was instructed, throwing balls (or even borderline strikes) with a six-run lead is dumb baseball, certainly timid baseball.

And we've seen that philosophy time and time this year, usually to disastrous results, getting behind hitters, walking them, going to 3-ball counts on all of them, stressing your bullpen, driving up your pitch count--and for what? You've got fielders behind you, you've got stuff that can get batters out--and you're choosing to walk them and get back in the game? Why? Why? Why? Etc.

This is one I'd lay squarely on the pitching coach for giving permission to something antithetical to sound baseball.

A guy goes into a game with a six-run lead, and I would instruct him, "Zero walks. Throw strikes. If you even go to 3 balls on several batters, you're out of the game. Got it? Good."

[Centerfield]

Maybe what went wrong in 2025 is as simple as this.

Mets Team ERA by Month:

March: 2.38 (4th) Record: 2-2

April: 2.68 (2nd) Record: 19-8

May: 3.08 (3rd) Record: 15-12

June: 4.80 (27th) Record: 12-15

July: 3.99 (12th) Record: 14-10

August: 4.97 (25th) Record: 11-17

September: 5.14 (26th) Record: 8-13

I hope the Mets are able to figure out how the pitching could implode to this level. Senga, Peterson and Manaea were all #2 level starters. All three are now unpitchable. Frankie Montas had the worst season of his career. Yes, it's on the players, it always is. But when an entire staff implodes, you have to look at the organization.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think, in the cases of Senga and Manaea, it may be about injury recoveries. Senga was terrific until he got hurt this year, and as we saw last October, he needs recovery time. Maybe that's the case with Manaea as well. Not sure what to thing about Peterson, though.

I remember thinking, going into the season, that the rotation didn't have enough depth. When Senga and Canning and Megill disappeared, the lack of depth was exposed.

Next year they'll have Manaea, Senga, Peterson, Tong, McLean, Sproat, and Holmes plus whoever they might add to that. Hopefully they'll be better positioned.

[The Hot Corner]

1. Pitching! Or lack there of. Unreliable starting rotation without a true "ace" . The starters had far too many outings of 5 (or fewer) innings which resulted in the bullpen being overworked. The pitchers as a group, walked far too many hitters.

2. CF. Taylor is a solid 4th outfielder, but he is not and everyday player. He is valuable as a late inning defensive sub, pinch runner and spot starter. The lack of offensive production from the CF position really hurt the line up depth.

These are the 2 most glaring problems that plagued the Mets all season long.

[roger_that]

The pitchers as a group, walked far too many hitters.

 

 

And this is the one factor most easily changed by a pitching coach's philosophy.

To be an MLB pitcher, control (and command) is your most basic skill. It's 100% (well, 99%) within each pitcher's skill set to choose whether to throw a ball or a strike. The problem is, of course, that the more you commit to throwing a strike, the more hittable your pitch becomes. But there's no question but that a pitcher should be able to throw strikes all day long at will.

I believe the Mets pitchers were encouraged to nibble, even in circumstances where nibbling was crazy. I was driven insane to find some reliever, in the game protecting a late 6-run lead, who time and again threw ball after ball, walking multiple batters and letting the other team accumulate base runners and score multiple runs.

Mets coaches and manager tolerated this to a degree I cannot countenance. If your **** is so weak that you're afraid to challenge hitters with a gigantic lead, then your **** is too weak to pitch in MLB.

[Benjamin Grimm]

[Gwreck]

Love those graphs.

I wonder how many times the Mets have made the playoffs despite the peak coming so early in the season. (I'm guessing 1973 is the only other such season -- that team peaked at 4 games over .500 in May).