The topic of discussion in this thread, Tomoyuki Sugano is

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

RHP, 30 years old, posted by the Tokyo Giants.



Went 14-2, 1.97 last season. Said to to be similar to Tanaka.

[Lefty Specialist]

My last Tomoyuki Sugano got terrible gas mileage.

[Edgy MD]

I never respected how Kirk cheated on the Tomoyuki Sugano exam.

[Benjamin Grimm]

https://nypost.com/2020/12/22/mets-are-team-to-watch-in-tomoyuki-sugano-sweepstakes/Mets emerge as team to watch in Tomoyuki Sugano sweepstakes

New York Post wrote: Sugano, the longtime ace of the Yomiuri Giants, has twice won the Sawamura award, the Japanese equivalent of MLB's Cy Young.

https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/12/sugano2.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=1280>

[MFS62]

Domo arigato for that.

SNY reported the same thing at 11:34 AM - They gave Sherman credit for the story.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mets-good-chance-anyone-sign-163409569.htmlhttps://sports.yahoo.com/mets-good-chance-anyone-sign-163409569.html



Don't know how much he will ask, but there's the release fee to his club to consider, too. I wonder if it will be comparable to what they would pay a second or third tier free agent.



Later

[Centerfield]

I wonder if the release fee counts against the luxury tax.

[nymr83]

=Centerfield post_id=52659 time=1608694190 user_id=65]
I wonder if the release fee counts against the luxury tax.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

ahem. http://www.thecranepool.net/phpBB32/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=29936http://www.thecranepool.net/phpBB32/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=29936

[Lefty Specialist]

Edgy MD wrote: I never respected how Kirk cheated on the Tomoyuki Sugano exam.

Lets hope we can avoid 'no-win scenarios'.

[Fman99]

Have to believe at the very least he'll be less of a dickhole on Twitter than Trevor Bauer.

[Edgy MD]

Hard to be worse.



Also hard to make a case that they're equal quantities, however. A Boy Name Sugano is also a year and a half older and has thrown a lot of innings for an NPB pitcher. And yeah, this slider looks sweet, but it also looks like it would be somewhere between the third and fifth best slider on the Mets, depending in part on whether you count Syndergaard.



https://twitter.com/tom_mussa/status/1330080258532519936https://twitter.com/tom_mussa/status/1330080258532519936



Lot of busy-ness in those mechanics, too.

[LWFS]

I mean, dude's been doing it successfully for ten years or so, so... those mechanics don't seem to be getting in the way. (I think I have a weakness for a weird, balk-tempting hitch.)



The control seems superlative, and he looked pretty damn fine (3 starts, 4 G, 14 1/3 IP, 16 K, 2.51 ERA) against top-shelf major league-level competish-- US, Cuba, Australia-- in the WBC last go-round.

[Frayed Knot]

So it seems that, unlike domestic FAs, the terms of the posting gives Sugano up to a 5PM (I assume EST) January 7th deadline in which to sign (aka: next Tuesday).

And since that means a signed contract by that time the final language, physicals etc. will all need to be done before then which means this thing probably needs to

find a conclusion by this weekend. I'm not sure how far talks have progressed from the Mets or from anyone for that matter.



https://nypost.com/2020/12/29/mets-free-agency-target-tomoyuki-sugano-must-soon-decide-fate/https://nypost.com/2020/12/29/mets-free-agency-target-tomoyuki-sugano-must-soon-decide-fate/



Yomiuri's manager, Tatsunori Hara (who is Sugano's uncle), has told associates that Sugano in ability is probably somewhere between Masahiro Tanaka, before he

tore an elbow ligament, and Kenta Maeda. That translates into Sugano projecting as a middle-of-the-rotation arm.

"At the National League level, against the top National League teams, I don't think he's a shut-them-down kind of pitcher,” said a talent evaluator who has tracked

Sugano's career. “But I think he's the kind of pitcher that will get you to your good arms in the bullpen. He will find a way, because he's not going to hurt himself

with walks. [1.8/9 for his career] He can really field his position, one of those guys. I wouldn't mind him going out there."

[Centerfield]

Maeda has a career ERA of 3.75 and WHIP of 1.110. If that is your floor he's better than a mid-rotation guy.

[nymr83]

=Centerfield post_id=52968 time=1609335342 user_id=65]
Maeda has a career ERA of 3.75 and WHIP of 1.110. If that is your floor he's better than a mid-rotation guy.

[Centerfield]

No idea how it translates. Just going off the scouting report in the article that he'll end up somewhere between pre injury Tanaka, and Maeda.



Pre-injury Tanaka was dominant. Maeda would probably be our second best starter.

[Edgy MD]

=nymr83 post_id=52969 time=1609335568 user_id=54]
=Centerfield post_id=52968 time=1609335342 user_id=65]
Maeda has a career ERA of 3.75 and WHIP of 1.110. If that is your floor he's better than a mid-rotation guy.

[Centerfield]

I think the Mets sign him. Not based on anything. Just a hunch.

[Centerfield]

Jon Heyman disagrees. Says Mets focus is elsewhere. If true this is surprising. The Mets need a lot of pitching.

[MFS62]

Sherman says they're out of the running.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Edgy MD wrote: =nymr83 post_id=52969 time=1609335568 user_id=54] =Centerfield post_id=52968 time=1609335342 user_id=65] Maeda has a career ERA of 3.75 and WHIP of 1.110. If that is your floor he's better than a mid-rotation guy.

how does that translate though? Japan is like Quadruple-A right?

[nymr83]

Edgy MD wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Maeda has a career ERA of 3.75 and WHIP of 1.110. If that is your floor he's better than a mid-rotation guy. how does that translate though? Japan is like Quadruple-A right? NPB typically plays at about a AA standard of competition, but that doesn't speak to whether they are in an offensive or defensive era relative to MLB or relative MLB-afilliated AA circuits. There is disagreement among researchers on what this transfer rate actually should be. Moreso, I think, than the competition-level estimates of other foreign leagues and major independents. Some folks place NPB as high as mid-AAA. Part of the distinction is whether researchers are measuring both ways. Some are basing their estimates on NPB performers coming over to MLB, but others are looking at MLB players going to Japan as well.

I think that would definitely be the difference - some guys (Ichiro, Tanaka, Darvish) come over here and remain star players or at least pretty good ones (Maeda) but the evidence against Japan being a high-level league would be the guys who go to Japan after having very limited success here. Tuffy Rhodes is exhibit A, B, and C of Japan being Little League.



Maybe the truth is somewhere else - Japan is MLB, but "during Spring Training" all year. There are plenty of MLB-quality players, but the overall stats are hard to judge/translate because there are also plenty of guys who would struggle to crack the Brooklyn Cyclones roster.



This would also make sense given baseball culture in Japan and its relative population size - unlike say Venezuela or the Dominican Republic, the dream of every young Japanese baseball player isn't to make it in America. The league retains top talent because it is a viable enough end-goal for world-class talent.

[MFS62]

I'm guessing pitching would be easier to predict than hitting because you can "scout" measurables such as pitch speeds and control.

An interview with a major league scout might confirm that, if anyone here can find one.

Later

[Centerfield]

Lost in the collapse of our democracy is the fact that Sugano appears not to have signed anywhere. I guess he goes back to Japan and tries next year hoping for a better market.

[nymr83]

Lost in the collapse of our democracy is the fact that Sugano appears not to have signed anywhere. I guess he goes back to Japan and tries next year hoping for a better market.

I think the "Posting Fees" were a real triple-whammy here that prevented a deal. In the midst of a pandemic where nobody wants to spend quickly especially before they have more info on things like season length, the Posting Fees 1) put an artificial deadline on the signing, 2) represented an up-front cost that needed to be paid out in year 1, and 3) probably prevented a short-term deal that would allow Sugano to pitch now and explore his market again soon - because while many teams might have been willingg to give him 1 year and a player option, they weren't going to pay the Posting Fees for that.

[Edgy MD]

4) Posting fees are bullshit.

[nymr83]

Edgy MD wrote: 4) Posting fees are bullshit.

I don't disagree, but they are here, they exist, so I'm discussing my opinion on the effect they had on Sugano particularly.

[kcmets]

Edgy MD wrote: 4) Posting fees are bullshit.

I don't know, if we charged $0.10/post we could afford a Zoom Pro

account in no time!

[Centerfield]

This bro spent a week in the US and was like yeah I'm good.

[A Boy Named Seo]

=Centerfield post_id=53569 time=1610126024 user_id=65]
This bro spent a week in the US and was like yeah I'm good.