Contending in 2019

[Centerfield]

So Ricco is on record saying that the Mets can contend in 2019. I tend to agree with this too. There are already many good pieces in place here, starting with deGrom and Syndergaard obviously.

But the only way I see them seriously contending is to open up the payroll. Another round of Bruce/Vargas/Swarzak/Frazier is going to put us right back here again next year. If there was any question about it last winter, all such doubts should be erased by now.

The thing is, they are talking about dealing Wheeler and Matz. If that happens, who the hell do we start next year? Are they serious about signing free agents to fill 3/5 of the rotation, rebuild the offense, eat the salaries of Bruce/Vargas/Swarzak and completely rebuild the bullpen?

I don't know. I mean, it certainly can be done. I just don't see the Wilpons signing on for it.

[Guest John Cougar Lunchbucket]

Mets have pitchers. Generally speaking, I'd risk losing Wheels or Matz and gamble on Dunn or Peterson next year.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Sure the Mets could contend next year, but all I see are questionmarks. Who knows what Conforto is? He suffered a career ending injury last year that could easily lower a player's ceiling. Cespedes'll be another year from the wrong side of his peak. And deGrom and Syndergaard aren't nearly enough. Yogi Berra's Mets had the best staff in baseball and every team, even the worst ones, have some star power. See, Trout, Mike.

[Guest d'Kong76]

There's rumors today about Machado going to Yanks if they'll part with a
gem or two. Mets rumors are about speculation if Gagnon will get another
shot at a start. It's like two different universes.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I agree with Centerfield. The Mets can contend in 2019, but they have to be smart and lucky and willing to spend big.

I think Jay Bruce is their biggest albatross. He has one more year on his contract than Vargas does, and if the Mets feel that they need to carry him on their roster because of his salary he takes up a more precious roster slot, given that there's less room for position players these days. I'd rather ditch him and replace him with someone eight years younger, accepting the risk that he'll have a comeback season next year somewhere else.

I don't want to lose deGrom or Syndergaard. After them, and assuming the Mets want to keep Nimmo, Conforto, and Rosario, their most tradeable guys who aren't in their walk years are probably Matz, Wheeler, and Flores. I'd hate to lose Wilmer, but a package of Wheeler and Flores might return somebody really good.

For the record, I don't expect the Mets to be much of a contender in 2019. But it could happen, and I hope it does. I will enter the offseason feeling quite skeptical.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: But the only way I see them seriously contending is to open up the payroll. Another round of Bruce/Vargas/Swarzak/Frazier is going to put us right back here again next year. If there was any question about it last winter, all such doubts should be erased by now.

I mean, that depends. If they get the career/recent lines from Vargas and Swarzak and Frazier, that'd actually be fine. The Mets major issue this season is that none of their prospects panned out, from a Smith/Rosario and even Conforto right now, and all their bullpen moves bombed. But even some of the bullpen moves they were rumored to make, or 'cost more', bombed. the same with almost all of the non-Vargas SP guys. And so they put two of their starting depth guys in the bullpen, but they actually had/have more rotation depth than most teams.

Sometimes things spiral and make its seem worse than it is. But the real sticking point is probably Rosario. You can find a decent stick at 1B. you've got outfielders even if Conforto isn't awesome. but a good defending SS with at least some offensive ability? damn, it hurts to lose that.

But there's still a chance he can be good. 2019 is going to look a lot different than 2018, no matter what happens.

But go after another big hitting star. Preferably infield of course, as Harper/OF is kinda fullish? So Machado. Try to get Machado. Hopefully he'll move back to third and isn't actually a malcontent and insists on playing a bad SS. He's not Jeter.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Machado sounds like he's pretty intent on playing shortstop.

I don't imagine that the Mets, even if they're willing to spend big, will the most appealing option for Machado given how the last two years have gone, but who knows? I'd like to at least see them in there trying.

[ashie62]

Contend i 2019?

Dump the following.

By Trade Cabrera Plawecki Syndergaard Frazier Conforto ( he just aint that good) Swarzak Familia

We have soo many horrid contracts to eat that I don't see them contending any time soon

Oh, Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario. Those are our building blocks, right? Dear lord

[metsmarathon]

my god. i just clicked over to bbref to look at the mets salary situation for 2019.

there's not a single damned player under actual signed contract for next year (meaning i'm not including any arbitration or pre-arbitration players) that would make you think, "yeah, i'd sign him for that money for next year"

cespedes $29M
wright $15M
bruce $14M
lagares $9M - this might be the most reasonable of the damned bunch!
frazier $9M
swarzak $8.5M
vargas $8M

that's a whole hell of a lot of money to spend in return for a bunch of negative and near-zero WAR. sheesh.

[smg58]

Competing next year will be impossible without at least a $25M bump in payroll. And you still have to hope everybody stays healthy and performs to realistic expectations. The Mets have gotten very, very little of either this year.

Very few people thought the extensions to Wright and Cespedes were bad ideas at the time. I certainly didn't.

As far as the rest of that list goes:
With Bruce, you try to swap him for a comparable player/contract (Mark Melancon? Zack Cozart?) that fills a greater need.
Somebody might take a flyer on Lagares because of his defense, and we need to start clearing out the guys who just get hurt too much.
You have to hope Frazier stays healthy and bounces back, but as I've said before, I think the league has started to figure out how to respond to that hitting style.
The 2017 Swarzak would have been a great addition. I don't think counting pennies was the problem there (Addison Reed has fallen off a cliff the last month, so he wouldn't have bailed us out any). If anything, it was not recognizing that the real bargains were guys like Anthony Rondon and Tony Watson who were good pitchers coming off down years. As it stands, you have to hope Swarzak returns to form, because bailing on him would just eat money.
Vargas -- even if healthy, we have multiple better options for the rotation. And a winning rotation has Matz and Wheeler (or perhaps Lugo) at 4 and 5, not 3 and 4. You hope he pitches well enough the rest of the way that you have a better option than DFAing him.

The one big contract I regret not going for this offseason is Lorenzo Cain. I would have hesitated giving him five years because defensive value tends to vanish faster than offensive value, but he's been worth it for the Brewers. We're glad we didn't get Darvish. Arrieta has pitched decently, but while "decent" would have helped us we would have been paying for quite a bit more than that (and his K rate scares me). JD Martinez is all that and then some with the bat, but his natural position is DH and I just don't see how he'd have fit.

[Ceetar]

smg58 wrote: Competing next year will be impossible without at least a $25M bump in payroll. And you still have to hope everybody stays healthy and performs to realistic expectations. The Mets have gotten very, very little of either this year. .

I mean, there's a little either or. You need the 25 or so to compensate for the not-healthy not-performing aspects of it. Unless you do manage to shift around some players like Bruce for different pieces, I dunno. Or add ons. Like trade Wheeler and Nimmo for Votto or someone but they have to take Bruce too and then sign Harper?

[Ceetar]

The other thing with Anthony is that it's been a minuscule 15.1 IP of which he was at least partially injured with an absurd HR% and a high BABIP. Him suddenly being a useful reliever again next year would be the least surprising thing that could happen.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah, I definitely haven't given up on Swarzak yet. And I was thinking similar thoughts about trading Bruce. I remember when the Mets had to take Derek Bell off the Astros hands in order to get Mike Hampton. I'm not sure if there's such a deal out there for the Mets to make, but they might as well try. I'm sure someone would take Bruce if it was necessary to get deGrom, but would they do so for someone like Wheeler? The other difference is that Bell was going into the final year of his contract, while Bruce still has two more.

[Edgy MD]

Dexter Fowler is looking like more of a load to the Cardinals than any two of Bruce, Vargas, and Frazier put together. They can trade one of them to the Cards along with a Callahan/Rhame-level reliever for Fowler and a big sexy prospect.

Not advocating, just saying. Mets aren't the only ones with a cross or two to bear.

[smg58]

Ashie62 wrote: Contend i 2019? Dump the following. By Trade Cabrera Plawecki Syndergaard Frazier Conforto ( he just aint that good) Swarzak Familia We have soo many horrid contracts to eat that I don't see them contending any time soon Oh, Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario. Those are our building blocks, right? Dear lord

Conforto was better last year than Nimmo is this year. And he worked hard to get back two months before anybody thought he'd be back. In 20/20 hindsight, he and the Mets would have been better off waiting. Part of the reason why I'm not bothered by the time that Cespedes/Syndergaard/Bruce are taking to get back is that maybe, if you handle this stint on the DL the right way, they won't keep going back. I think any realistic hope of at least being respectable next year (or the year after that) includes getting something close to the 2017 Conforto. Maybe the offseason will do his shoulder some good.

Regarding Smith and Rosario: Smith went through the minors hitting extra base hits to all sides of the field, and now he's hitting everything into the shift. He has to unlearn a few things. I'm not sure whose responsibility that ultimately was, but it was a bad mistake and now Smith is a mess. Rosario is finally showing some signs of life, but his defense still concerns me. I'd be more patient with him if he were an above-average defensive shortstop, but he isn't. I'm not sure what you do with him, but hopefully the next two months bring some clarity.

[Lefty Specialist]

Boy, I don't know where to start. First of all, I don't trust these guys a) to spend more money and to spend that money wisely.

They actually have 4 competent pitchers in deGrom/Thor/Wheeler/Matz. It's everything else that sucks.

An outfielder needs to be traded. Bruce will get you nothing. Cespedes is untradeable. Nimmo should be untouchable. And Conforto deserves another year to show whether he's recovered or not.

I don't have a plan (neither do they as far as I can tell). I think 2019 will be another year that they limp through.

[MFS62]

To me, the first thing they should do is sign Mesoraco to an extension. I don't see any improvement from the other catchers in the organization and nothing really apparent (unless I'm missing somebody) in the coming free agent market.
Keep the four starters, Nimmo and Wilmer.

Everyone else is fair game.
And SPEND.

Later

[Guest 41Forever]

I'm in the minority, but I don't think they're that far.

I'm expecting Rosario to continue improving -- he's still just, what, 22? 23? If they can figure out how to keep Cespedes and Syndergaard healthy, they'd be much stronger. Bruce signing looks bad in hindsight as Nimmo emerges, but I understand what they were thinking. Maybe they can shut him down, get the foot and back fully healed and he can come back and mash and gain some value.

[Edgy MD]

I'm not sure "healing" is a likely outcome for plantar fasciitis. Through therapy, you can minimize the frequency and severity of flareups, but I don't think it's ever going to disappear from his book. There is a surgery, but that's probably a six-month recovery and it's not without it's downside.

[Benjamin Grimm]

If the Mets take an approach of "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older and see what happens." they'll get roasted, and deservedly so.

[Ceetar]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If the Mets take an approach of "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older and see what happens." they'll get roasted, and deservedly so.

yeah but we kinda want like Rosario to get a year older no?

Who knows with the FA flux, but the Mets haven't really been in a 'hold serve' pattern for years.

[Benjamin Grimm]

True. There are a handful of younger players who may benefit from being a year older.

[Centerfield]

Benjamin Grimm wrote: If the Mets take an approach of "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older and see what happens." they'll get roasted, and deservedly so.

You mean the motto of Winter 2017-2018?

Actually, that one might have been "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older, drop payroll slightly, sign middling high-priced talent and see what happens."

[Centerfield]

metsmarathon wrote: my god. i just clicked over to bbref to look at the mets salary situation for 2019. there's not a single damned player under actual signed contract for next year (meaning i'm not including any arbitration or pre-arbitration players) that would make you think, "yeah, i'd sign him for that money for next year" cespedes $29M wright $15M bruce $14M lagares $9M - this might be the most reasonable of the damned bunch! frazier $9M swarzak $8.5M vargas $8M that's a whole hell of a lot of money to spend in return for a bunch of negative and near-zero WAR. sheesh.

That is damn depressing. With Cespedes and Wright, those deals were good gambles. At least the money was spent on top tier players. One can never predict injuries, especially one like David Wright's. These guys at least had the chance to be good.

It's the others on the list that are infuriating. All that money spent on middling talent. $9 million for Todd Frazier when Flores or TJ Rivera could give you similar production.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Centerfield wrote: You mean the motto of Winter 2017-2018? Actually, that one might have been "Hey we're not so bad. We only lost about 90 games. Let's let everyone get a year older, drop payroll slightly, sign middling high-priced talent and see what happens."

Exactly. Last year's plan hasn't worked out at all. If they take the perspective that 41 offered, that they're closer than they seem, we're very likely to see more lousiness in 2019.

And, sadly, I think that's what we're likely to see happen.

[Ceetar]

Centerfield wrote: metsmarathon wrote: my god. i just clicked over to bbref to look at the mets salary situation for 2019. there's not a single damned player under actual signed contract for next year (meaning i'm not including any arbitration or pre-arbitration players) that would make you think, "yeah, i'd sign him for that money for next year" cespedes $29M wright $15M bruce $14M lagares $9M - this might be the most reasonable of the damned bunch! frazier $9M swarzak $8.5M vargas $8M that's a whole hell of a lot of money to spend in return for a bunch of negative and near-zero WAR. sheesh. That is damn depressing. With Cespedes and Wright, those deals were good gambles. At least the money was spent on top tier players. One can never predict injuries, especially one like David Wright's. These guys at least had the chance to be good. It's the others on the list that are infuriating. All that money spent on middling talent. $9 million for Todd Frazier when Flores or TJ Rivera could give you similar production.

Frazier is so so so so so SO much better than Flores and TJ Rivera combined.
Swarzak was a good grab, if a bit expensive, and still might be worth it.
Vargas isn't good, but he's typically not horrid either. But pitching, even averageish pitching, is expensive and the Mets already had like 8 starters.

I still don't understand anyone opining that the Mets didn't address rotation depth, they probably had more guys than most other teams.

[Lefty Specialist]

Edgy MD wrote: I'm not sure "healing" is a likely outcome for plantar fasciitis. Through therapy, you can minimize the frequency and severity of flareups, but I don't think it's ever going to disappear from his book. There is a surgery, but that's probably a six-month recovery and it's not without it's downside.

I've had it. A bad flareup about 10 years ago, where I could barely walk. Rest and therapy are the best treatments, and I was basically off my foot for about a month. I get minor flares occasionally but I deal with it. Of course I wasn't trying to play the outfield in a major league uniform, but it is treatable.

[seawolf17]

Part of me wishes that we could trade bad contracts for bad contracts and that it would work out, but you know it won't.

[Edgy MD]

Nah, it can sometimes get you in a better situation. Harvey for Meso has worked.

[smg58]

Frazier is not a better hitter than Wil Flores. He was supposed to be a huge defensive upgrade, but he's been a decent defensive upgrade whose value with the glove has been negated by Cabrera's performance (or lack thereof) at second.

It is fair to ask which of the available options at second or third that we talked about in the offseason would have been better pickups, and the answer is... who? Kipnis has been worse than Frazier. Cozart is out for the year. Moustakas could have been had, though. The issue there was more about the draft pick than the money. I'd be mad over that if we were the right infielder away from contention, but, it turns out we're better off with the pick.

It is fair to ask what Flores' role on this team is going forward. The need for a right-handed first baseman will be diminished next year if/when Alonso gets the call. And Rivera (possibly Cecchini as well) can fill his role in the rest of the infield. I love the guy and would hate to see him go, but he is a reasonable trade candidate.