metsmarathon

Ceetar wrote: Not quite what I meant. I don't know that Reyes fangraph perceived value exceeds his contract in his 6th (2017 right?) year. I was more going along the lines of being a contributing player and not a liability or a 2010 Castillo type player. Not a lynchpin or dynamic leadoff hitter, but a helpful player who the Marlins* don't feel like they need an upgrade on. Top third SS in the NL type. well, the argument isn't that reyes will or won't be a decent or good player, but rather whether reyes is bing grossly overpaid or not. "top third SS in the NL type" is a bit ephemeral and unquantified. it's on the right track, and certainly better than "don't be luis castillo" you could always use average rank among qualified NL SS using WAR, either fangraphs or bb-ref. but if you're doing that, then why not go straight to the fangraphs dollar value? $17M is about a 4-WAR player in the current market. that may go up or down in the ocming years, but its a decent place to start. i think the deal is a fair one if he gives you close to that over hte course of hte contract. its a good deal if you get much more than 4 WAR per season, and its a bad deal if you get much less. how much less? dunno. if you get, say, 3 WAR out of reyes in a given season, you're overpaying him by over $4M. that would be a bad deal. is overpaying him by a penny a bad deal? no. i leave it to y'all bettors to figure out the correct level of badness. for comparison, in 2010, fangraphs had luis castillo worth $2.7M, yet he was paid $6.25 M another comparison. in 2011, the mfy got $19M of production out of arod, and all they paid was $33M. they also paid $15M for derek jeters $10M of production.

there goes peralta's shot at the hall...

Dickey 6.0 Davis 2.4 Valdespin 0.9 Wright 0.6 Duda 0.1

my basketball strategy is to only shoot when i'm either spinning, falling, or fading away. that way, when it goes in, i look awesome, and when it doesn't, well, it was a tough shot to begin with. actually, the truth is, my mechanics and training is so awful, that my shooting percentage actually increases when all i can do is quickly pick up the rim and heave the ball towards it. set shot, awful. turn-around fadeaway, awesome. turn-around fadeaway while getting mauled by a tiger, superbalicious! i imagine that htrowing a hard knuckleball may in fact be easier than a slow knuckleball, in terms of getting strikes. i don't know why i should htink that. but i do. i imagine the harder throwing motion to be somewhat more repeatable, if its a natural one, whereas a slowed-up motion might be less natural to a trained pitcher, and therefore more problematic. the alternative is to start throwing the knkuckleball early, so as to build-in hte desired velocity as you learn to pitch, rather than to adjust after the fact.

i think dickey is surely starting to show that you can throw a knuckler harder, as his averages 77 or so mph. since there's no additional leverage applied by his fingers as he releases the ball, it's really not that much different from a change. i'd be curious to see how his arm motion differs from a pitcher who throws upper 80's to see if there's an appreciable difference in radial velocity and other such metrics. unlike wakefield, he appears to be a regular, non-flame-throwing pitcher who happens to throw a knuckler.

Young 6.0 Rauch 1.2 Francisco 1.2 Thole 1.0 Davis 0.2

Batista 4.5 Wright 2.4 Murphy 1.1 Duda 0.9 Torres 0.5

Nieuwenhuis 2.3 ERamirez 1.0 Davis 0.9 Wright 0.5 Hairston 0.4

Nieuwenhuis 3.0 Wright 1.9 Rauch 1.8 Francisco 1.2 Davis 1.1 Duda 1.0

said minimm after watching the end of last night's game, "i like r.a. dickey"

in '63, duke snider played 63 games in right, to 35 in left and 11 in center. i think that qualifies him for right field duty.

nah. i think redesigning the OF walls is the way to go. utilize a little bit of earthquake technology to allow them to give when whalloped, yet be firm enough to produce a true bounce for a batted ball, and you're good. there are really not too many instances of baserunners and infielders getting struck such as to force the issue. the pitcher, maybe... but he needs a full face shield moreso than the helmet

Edgy DC wrote: Is it worth a thought to consider sending outfielders who've endured a concussion out on the field with helmets, a la Jon Olerud? maybe, but bay ran into a padded wall. granted, a padded wall backed by cold, unforgiving concrete. perhaps the outfield walls should be constructed with more give upon the impact of a grown male body. might be useful for minimizing other types of injuries as well.

Keith Hernandez Gets His Nose Picked by twenny6point2, on Flickr

Today's game will also feature minimm's citi field debut. I fear we face a major obstacle in convincing him that he is not in fact there to play baseball on the field.

going to the game today. section 138 with mrs. & minimm mr. met dash and keith hernandez bobblehead. happy fathers' day to me!

i'll say this about jason bay... he's a fucking gamer to always play 100% in the outfield, despite all the injuries. he may not be able to hit the ball anymore, but he sure as hell has tried very very hard in teh outfield.

170 career rbi for a guy who had 100 in a season is so absurdly low, that there are no players currently active who have driven in 100 runs in a season and who do not yet have 170 career rbi. should he manage the feat, lucas duda could conceivably turn the trick, provided he did not exceed 107 rbi this season. he currently has 40. jason kipnis has a real shot as well, as he also has 40 rbi this season, but only total for his career. no other young players appear (on rapid scan of the league leaders) to be on pace for 100 rbi having not yet had 70 in their career.

272 is the lowest i found. never ever heard of the guy. (110 in '45) OE... also got a 282. (100 in '53) game over. 170. (101 in '34) now that i think about it, this one sounds a little familiar. an old-timey 286 (102 in '21) a super-old-timey 253 (114 in '94) and finally, an ancient 270 (109 in '87) i think that's all of 'em. totally missed the guy from the early 1990s though.

so i found a guy whose one seaon accounted for about 36% of his career rbi. he never played for the sox, though he did get his 100 rbi in the nl. i wonder if he's the guy... he's got WAY fewer career rbi than hobson. like, 90 fewer. OE: and i found another national leguer with even fewer; his big year accounted for over 40% of his career rbi. OFE: i'm up to 5 players with fewer career rbi than morgan ensberg. two of htese players have fewer than 300 career rbi. another player has two years with more than 100 rbi. whosoever could they be? note: i might be missing a few.

i just set up my spreadsheet to also generate a custom ranking where the top four guys get 6, 2.5, 1, and 0.5 points per game. its not smart enough to know what to do when you have a tie, but for a quick and dirty what-if, it works well enough. dickey shows up as my leader-to-date, with 63 POG points compared to the 58 schaefer points he's gotten from me in regular voting second is dwright, with 56 and 51.5, respectively. johan is 3rd, with 51 and 38.8, respectively. he gets a big boost here. no word on how the 'bot's voting would turn out.

i had dickey at a 7.1 for his half-hitter, and had to scale it back accordingly.

Dickey 6.0 Davis 1.6 Murphy 1.0 Rottino 1.0 Torres 0.4

why not hold him out of april games instead of september games? give him an extended spring training, some easy minor league assignments, and you get to hold an extended tryout for the 5th spot in the rotation.

is yours ever neither out nor up?