If Cespedes stays for 3 years, it's still a very good deal for the Mets. Jay Jaffe in Sports Illustrated writes: [sports Illustrated's] What's He Really Worth model—which uses a player’s last three years of performance, estimates of the market cost for a win ($6.5 million for 2015), a 5.4% rate of inflation and a decline of 0.5 WAR per year for its aging curve—projects him to be worth $84.2 million over the next three seasons. . . . In other words, it doesn't take a best-case scenario for this to be a good deal, and it might turn out to be a bargain http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/23/new-york-mets-yoenis-cespedes-deal