Consider these scenarios:
a. Mendoza is fired after the 2025 season ends. He‘s had a 172-152 record, making the playoffs one year and barely missing the second. Half the time he runs the team (June ‘24-June ‘25) they play better than any team in baseball, and the other half they play like crap. He’s the 4th consecutive Mets manager to not last more than two years.
The team is otherwise the same, so you still have the early Soto, Lindor, Robert, and Polanco injuries. Does a different manager get more out of Bichette and Peterson and Baty and Semien? Enough that they’re not so awful that they fall out of the race immediately?
b. Mendoza starts the season but is fired April 26, after the Mets are swept by the Rockies and are 9-19.
c. Mendoza is fired May 25, after the sweep in Miami. Mets are 22-31.
d. (Actual events): Mendoza fired June 25, Mets are 34-47.
With the benefit of hindsight, I have a hard time seeing the Mets making the playoffs even in scenario B or C. And firing Mendoza earlier than April 26 seems unrealistic if he’s the managerial choice for the year.